Sergio Persoglia OGS, Italy CO2GeoNet Network Manager Energy efficiency: is it enough for fighting the Global Warming ? The role of CO 2 Geological Storage

Sergio PersogliaOGS, Italy

CO2GeoNet Network Manager

Energy efficiency: is it enough for fighting the Global Warming ? The role of CO2 Geological Storage now and in the post-Kyoto

scenario

Eco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

There is a wide scientific consensus on Global Warming

Impacts of Global Warming

September 2002- purple line is the 30 year average ice cap minimum extent

300

800

ppm CO2

Riebersell et al 2000Caldera & Wickett 2003

It is not just Climate Change

CO2 is acidifying our oceans and will inflict severe ecological and economic damage later this century and in the next

September 1979 September 2005


XX° century, exceptional warming: +0,6°C ; + 2°C on Arctic region

Antarctic: +3,5°C since 1945; important collapses (ex: 3250 Km2 in 2002)

Arctic: -40 % ice shell since 1945

In Italy: +1,4°C since 1950

80 % of the world glaciers and permafrost melt: - 8cm/y in Siberia, and 1,6 to 3,3°C in Alaska since 1980

Ocean warming (+1°C around NZ in 100 years): absorption reduced

Ocean level: 1,5 to 2 mm/y during the XX° century, 3 mm/y today

Biodiversity threatened by rapid change. Ex France: +0,9°C in one century = shifting of meteo conditions 150 m higher or 180 km northward. Consequences observed on fauna, flora, agriculture, fish …

Increase of extreme events

2025: 75% population in a 60 km distance from coastlines

Observations confirm reality of climate change and future impacts

Eco-innovation – opportunities and challengesEco-innovation – opportunities and challenges

Global Warming is not new but …. during a man’s life there are changes that happened in the past on geologic scale

Mean temperature on the ice surface in Antarctica (hist.) and CO2 concentrations (in yellow). Both are correlated with the deviation of Earth orbit (in blue). From about 1960, an high peak


Climate observations confirm anthropogenic contribution


The production of CO2 cannot be avoided (because intrinsically related to the use of hydrocarbons)

Even though the development of renewable energy sources, hydrocarbons will remain the main energy source, passing from 87 % to 89 % in 2030.

All projections indicate an increment of about 65 % of energy demand in the period 2000-2030.

This will be mainly related to the growing of people having access to energy, while energy “pro capite” (in red) has been almost stabilized from the Seventies



Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate problems for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

S. Pacala and R. Socolow (Princeton University)

Stabilization curve at 550 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere

A “wedge” represents an activity that reduces emissions to the atmosphere that starts at zero to-day and increases linearly until it accounts for 1 GtC/year of reduced carbon emissions in 50 years:

It thus represents a cumulative total of 25 GtC of reduced emissions over 50 years.


Some Options: increase efficiency in cars / buildings

Efficient vehicles

increase fuel economy for 2 billion cars (roughly four times as many as to-day) from 30 to 60 mpg

Reduced use of vehicles

decrease car travel for 2 billion 30 mpg cars from 10.000 to 5.000 miles per year

Efficient buildings

cut carbon emissions by one-fourth in buildings and appliances projected for 2054 (energy-efficient space heating and cooling, water heating, lighting and refrigeration in residential and commercial buildings). About half of potential savings are in developing countries


Some Options: power plants efficiency / fuel shifting

Efficient baseload coal plants

produce twice today’s coal power output at 60% instead of 40% efficiency (compared with 32% today)

Gas baseload power for coal base load power

replace 1400 GW 50% efficient coal plants with gas plants (four times the current production of gas-based power)

Nuclear power for coal power

add 700 GW (twice the current capacity). Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge


Some Options: renewable energies

Wind power for coal power

add 2 million 1-MW-peak windmills (50 times the current capacity) “occupying” 30 million ha on land or offshore

Photovoltaic power for coal power

add 2000 GW-peak PV (700 times the current capacity) on 2 million ha

Wind H2 in fuel-cell car for gasoline in hybrid car

add 4 million 1-MW-peak windmills (100 times the current capacity)


Some Options: biomass / forestation / soils management

Biomass fuel for fossil fuels

add 100 times the current Brazil or U.S. ethanol production, with use of 250 million ha (one sixth of the world cropland)

Reduced deforestation, plus reforestation and new plantations

decrease tropical deforestation to zero instead of 0,5 GtC/year, and establish 300 Mha new tree plantations (twice the current rate)

Agricultural soils management

by 1995, conservation tillage practices had been adopted for 110 million hectares of the world’s 1.600 million ha of cropland. If these techniques could be applied to all cropland, half to one wedge could be saved.


Some Options: capture of CO2 and geological storage

Capture CO2 at baseload power plant (coal, natural gas, synfuels)

introduce CCS at 800 GW coal or 1600 GW natural gas

introduce CCS at plants producing 250 Mt H2/year from coal or 500 Mt H2/year from

natural gas (compared with 40 Mt H2/year today from all sources)

Apply geological storage at large scale

create 3500 Sleipner

20-500 %


SNOHVIT

Some Options: capture of CO2 and geological storage

Sleipner is the most important project actually running (in the North Sea)


EC supported studies on CCS in the last three FWPs

Capture AZEP Research on a new chemical process for capture of CO2 from combustion gases in power plant

GRACE Research on processes for capture of CO2 from non-power producing plant (refineries, etc.)

CASTOR Evaluation and optimisation of post-combustion capture techniques

ENCAP Enhanced capture of CO2

ISSC Innovative in-situ CO2 capture technology for solid fuel gasification

Sequestration GESTCO Study involving most geological surveys and related organisations to assess the sequestration potential in Europe

CO2STORE Investigates four new potential cases for CO2 reservoirs, mainly on land, with reservoir simulations and geo-chemical reactions to develop final-fate prediction models

NASCENT Study of naturally-occurring CO2 reservoirs to establish the mechanisms that ensure retention of CO2

RECOPOL A larger scale demonstration project in a Polish coal field

CO2SINK In-situ R&D laboratory for capture and sequestration of CO2

CASTOR Development and validation, in public/private partnerships, of all the innovative technologies to store CO2

CO2GEONET Network of Excellence on Geological Storage of CO2

GEOCAPACITY Mapping of emission, infrastructure and potential CO2 storage sites in South and Eastern Europe. Development of international cooperation especially with other CSLF countries beginning with China (later with India and Russia)

Seq. monitoring WEIBURN Support the European teams monitoring the CO2 used for EOR in the well-documented Weyburn oil field in Canada

SACS2 Support of European teams monitoring the behaviour of CO2 injected in the Sleipner project in the North Sea

CO2REMOVE Assessment, over an integrated portfolio of storage sites, of methods for base-line site evaluation, monitoring of storage and possible well and surface leakages, new tolls to predict and model long term storage behaviour and risks

Networking CO2NET Thematic Network facilitating the development of CO2 capture and storage as a safe, technically feasible, socially acceptable mitigation option

Specific support action

INCA-CO2 This action aims at strengthening European excellence by providing stakeholders support for the international forums; establishing international relations with international projects & programs; providing a coherent view on international activities for input in policy


Launched April 2004, duration 5 years, 13 Research Partners

CO2 GeoNet – the European NoE

Denmark Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland – GEUSFrance Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres – BRGM

Institute Francais du Petrole – I FP

Germany Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources – BGR

Italy Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale – OGSUniversità di Roma “La Sapienza”, Dip. Scienze della Terra – URS

Netherlands Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research – TNO

Norway Norwegian Institute for Water Research – NIVAStiftelsen Rogalandsforskning – RF

SINTEF Petroleumsforskning AS – SPR

UK Heriot-Watt University – HWUImperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine – IMPERIAL

Natural Environment Research Council-British Geological Survey – BGS (Coordinator)

To be THE European authoritative body for technical, impartial high quality information on geological storage of CO2

Strengthen European Research Area (ERA) Align & harness national research programmes Pave the way for the next generation of researchers

Mission

CO2 GeoNet is the largest Virtual Institute on CO2 geological storage in the world … and it is European


Documents

Sergio Persoglia OGS, Italy CO2GeoNet Network Manager Energy efficiency: is it enough for fighting the Global Warming ? The role of CO 2 Geological Storage