S. Kiselev, R. Romashkin – LomonosovMoscow State University

Climate changesPopulation Income changesVulnerabilityThe dynamics of agriculture

Year + 0,65 Winter - 2,09Spring + 0,74Summer + 1,83Autumn +1,86

Year + 0,44 Winter + 0,28Spring + 0,53Summer + 0,42Autumn +0,54

Average speed of changes (trend) of temperature for January (º С/10 year) 1976 по 2010

Average speed of changes (trend) of precipitation in Spring -(mm/10 years) 1976 - 2010

9

expansion of cultivated area and increasing lands suitable for agriculture increasing favorable period for vegetationincrease of warm supplyimproving of wintering for crops

increase of dangerous events (severe droughts, forest fires, etc.)increase of anomaliesincrease of aridity for arid areas (south of Russia, south of Siberia)lack of water resources degradation of soil fertility

Decade Total PopulationGrowth Rate

Rural PopulationGrowth Rate

Urban PopulationGrowth Rate

1960-1969 0.87 -0.95 2.45

1970-1979 0.58 -1.38 1.77

1980-1989 0.64 -0.71 1.24

1990-1999 -0.01 0.14 -0.06

2000-2009 -0.34 -0.32 -0.35

2008 2009 2010

For all socio-demographic groups 185.1 162.7 187.4

For specific socio-demographic groups

- working-age population 200.4 175.9 202.2

- pensioners 146.9 129.4 148.9

- children 176.9 155.6 180.8

Ratio of per capita incomes to minimum cost of living, percent 325.3 326.8 326.2

 

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Vegetable oils Sunflower Soybean Rape

 

89,1

106,9

99,1 

81,3 

63,469,3

88,6

47,9

65,5

85,2 86,6

67,2 78,1

60,9

97,1

108,2

81,578,2

77,8

54,7

0

20

40

60

80

100 

120 

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

All GCMs demonstrate the increase in temperature for all parts of Russia (realistic!)

All models demonstrate the increase in precipitation for most parts of Russia (realistic!)

Period of scenario implementation, years Region 30-40 60-70 90-100 30-40 60-70 90-100 Feed Crops Grain Crops

North 22 32 31 26 24 13 North-West 21 24 30 22 12 22 Kaliningrad 22 22 20 34 25 29 Central 19 24 17 27 25 13 Volgo-Vyatka 21 30 19 20 26 11 Black Soil Center 20 24 7 15 15 -7 Volga River, North 24 30 8 16 19 -10 Volga River, South 5 14 1 7 30 20 Northern Caucasus 2 3 -7 -6 -7 -13 Urals 14 28 17 11 16 -7 Siberia, West 6 19 1 -7 -1 -23 Siberia, East 0 0 -4 -12 -18 -24 Far east 6 13 7 10 12 5 Russia 13 21 11 11 14 -1 Changes of yield in percentage of current level

GDP Per Capita Scenarios

Production

Area

Yield

Net Exports

Production

Area

Yield

Net Exports

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Energy Industrial and Manufacturing Use of solvents and other products AgricultureLand use change and forestry Wastes

25

Resource saving technologiesNew varieties of cropsWinter cropsForestationIrrigationSpecial government policy (insurance programs, safety net programs, support ag. research,etc.)