September 9, 2016 · weak economic growth. We expect this situation to reverse for the remainder of the year with stronger economic growth and softer hiring as Canadian firms strive

September 9, 2016

Week in review

Canada – Employment bounced back in August (+26K)

according to the Labour Force Survey, above consensus calling for a 14K rise. However, the jobless rate rose one tick to 7.0% with the participation rate rising to 65.5% from 65.4%. Total hours worked dropped 0.3% in July following a 0.1% rise in the prior month. The rise in government (+57K) and private (+8K) employment were partly offset by a decline in self-employment (-39K). Full-time employment rose a 52K while part-time jobs retreated 26K. The goods sector (+11K) was up with gains in manufacturing, construction and resources while utilities and agriculture were down. Services sector employment was also up (15K) with gains in public administration, trade, information/recreation and healthcare among others while professional and building services were down.

On a regional basis, employment rose in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta while BC declined after massive gains. Details of the report are somewhat encouraging. Full-time employment rebounded sharply but is still not making up the 112K cumulative decline of the two previous months. On a regional basis, the rise of employment in central Canada is welcomed since Canadian labor market health cannot rely exclusively on BC’s performance. This month’s performance is mostly supported by

government hiring but we are pleased to see private employment posting further gains in August (+97K year-to-date). For some time, employment has been resilient despite weak economic growth. We expect this situation to reverse for the remainder of the year with stronger economic growth and softer hiring as Canadian firms strive to restore profit margins. Housing starts fell to 182.7K in August, or at a 6.1% annual pace. Multiple starts in urban areas fell 8.8K units (-7.3%) to 111.4K. Single-detached starts in urban areas dropped 2.2K (-3.7%) to 56.5K. Rural starts were estimated at 14.8K units, down 1.0K (-6.4%). On a regional basis, starts dropped in 5 provinces (Ontario -3.2K, BC -4.1K, Alberta -5.9K, Manitoba -2.8K and Nova Scotia -1.4K). Starts increased in Quebec (+4.3K), Saskatchewan (+0.7K), PEI (+0.5K), New Brunswick (+0.4K) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+0.3K). For the time being, with declines in July and August, housing starts in Canada are set to be a drag on economic growth in Q3. Capacity utilization sank to just 80% in the second quarter, its lowest level since late 2010. While a drop was expected after the sharp contraction in real GDP in Q2, the widespread declines were disappointing. Utilization rates were down in 19 of the 21 major industries, including manufacturing (one-year low of 82.2%), construction (five-year low of 83.5%), and the oil and gas sector (four-year low of 73.9%, courtesy of Alberta’s wildfires). Total capacity utilization is still more than 7 percentage points above the recession low of 72.7% reached in June 2009. During the years of the Great Moderation (1987- 2007), capacity utilization averaged 84.3%. As widely expected, the Bank of Canada announced this week it was leaving its overnight rate unchanged. The central bank expected “a substantial rebound in the second half of this year” as oil production picked up, rebuilding in Alberta got under way, and Canadians received their Canada Child Benefit payments. The BoC also expected Q4 growth to be above potential “as federal infrastructure spending starts to have more impact.” However, not all was rosy. The central bank indicated that exports remained disappointing “even after accounting for weaker business and residential investment in the United States, adjustments in the resource sector, and cutbacks in auto production.” While heartened by the rebound in exports in July, the BoC felt that “the ground lost over previous months raises the possibility that the profile for economic activity will be somewhat lower than anticipated in July.” This raises questions about the Bank’s narrative to the effect that exports would be a key growth driver next year. Consequently, while the Canadian

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2013 2014 2015 2016

Unemployment Rate (Right)

Employment (Left)

%

m/m chg. thousands

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada)

Canada: Employment rebound in AugustEmployment and jobless rate according to the Labour Force Survey

What we’ll be watching (p. 3) Calendar of upcoming releases (p. 5) Annex – Economic tables (A1)

WEEKLY ECONOMIC WATCH

2

economy remains in transition, we continue to expect the central bank to keep its policy rates unchanged until late next year.

United States – In August, the ISM Non-

Manufacturing Index fell to 51.4 from 55.5 the prior month. The new-orders and the business activity sub-indices plunged, from 60.3 to 51.4 and from 59.3 to 51.8, respectively. The employment sub-index sagged from 51.4 to 50.7. Both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports for August no longer indicated a rebound in activity down the road, as the combined measure for new orders slipped to 50.25, its lowest point in the current expansion period. Though we should not be alarmed by a single month of data, which can always be very volatile, we will monitor closely whether other incoming indicators confirm this weakness. For now, we still see economic activity bouncing back sharply in Q3 and maintaining a decent pace in Q4. Otherwise, these surveys suggest there will be weak job gains in the coming months, as the manufacturing sector can be expected to contract slightly and the non-manufacturing sector continues to expand, but only barely.

As estimated earlier, wholesale inventories were unchanged in July at $591.3 billion. Sales of merchant wholesalers were down 0.4% m/m in July after having increased 1.7% in June. At the current sales pace, the inventory/sales ratio was 1.34 in July, compared to 1.32 a year ago. In July, job openings rose 228K to 5.87 million. They were up 4% month over month but only 1.4% year over year. The ratio of unemployed persons per job opening was 1.3. By comparison, the ratio peaked at 6.6 during the last recession and stood at 1.5 when the cyclical low in unemployed workers was reached in October 2006. The number of total separations, which includes layoffs and discharges (1.58 million), quits (2.98 million) and other separations (334K), was little changed at 4.9 million. The quits rate rose one tick to 2.1%. Based on information collected on or before August 29, 2016, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book suggested that national economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace on balance during the reporting period of July through late August. The pace of overall growth was reported to be modest or

moderate according to most Districts. The Fed’s contacts generally expected moderate economic growth in the coming months. Most Districts reported moderate payroll growth but perceived labour market conditions as remaining tight. Wage pressures were reported as increasing further but remained moderate on balance. Manufacturing activity was described as flat to slightly up in general. Activity in the residential and commercial real estate sectors expanded further according to most Districts. Although growth varied widely across lending categories, the Beige Book indicated that overall credit to businesses and consumers swelled at a moderate pace. On the inflation front, price increases remained slight on the whole.

World – In August, China’s composite purchasing

managers index (PMI) was marginally lower than in July, slipping one tick to 51.8, according to Caixin Media and Markit Economics. New orders fell four ticks to 51.3. Still, both indices stayed above the expansion threshold of 50 for a sixth straight month. The European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a wait-and-see attitude as a slight downgrade in its inflation and growth outlook was “not so substantial as to warrant a decision to act.” The Governing Council left the key ECB interest rates unchanged. It reiterated that monthly asset purchases of €80 billion were intended to run until the end of March 2017 or longer, if necessary. However, it also indicated that it would continue to monitor economic and financial market developments very closely. ECB President Mario Draghi repeated that there was “no question about the will to act, the capability to act and the ability to do so.” He added that the ECB had asked internal committees to weigh various options to ensure the smooth implementation of the asset-purchase program. This suggested to observers that the ECB was seriously considering extending the program beyond March.

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg)

ISM Non-Manufacturing fell 4.1 points to 51.4 in August

Index


What we’ll be watching

3

In Canada, a light data week will feature manufacturing shipments for July. Strong exports of factory goods in the month suggest shipments may have risen about 1.3%. August data on the housing market will also

be available thanks to existing home sales and resale home prices as measured by the Teranet/National Bank house price index.

In the U.S., we will get an important update this week about the state of the American consumer. The observed deceleration in the labour market likely restrained spending in August. Auto sales were reportedly soft, while

falling pump prices probably capped gasoline station receipts in the month. All in all, retail sales may have fallen about 0.3% in August. Inflationary pressures will also be assessed with the release of the consumer price index for August. Falling gasoline prices restrained the monthly CPI, although base effects may have caused the year-on-year print to rise to about 1%. Industrial production may have fallen in August after the prior month’s outsized gains. We’ll also get very first clues about September with the preliminary release of the Michigan consumer sentiment and regional indices of manufacturing activity such as the Empire and Philly.

Previous NBF forecastsManufacturing sales (July m/m chg.) 0.8% 1.3%

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Canada: Factory sales likely found support in JulyManufacturing shipments

m/m % chg.

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Statistics Canada) NBF forecast

Previous NBF forecastsRetail sales (August m/m chg.) 0.0% -0.3%ex-autos Retail sales (August m/m chg.) -0.3% 0.2%

CPI (August y/y chg.) 0.8% 1.0%Core CPI (August y/y chg.) 2.2% 2.2%

Industrial production (August m/m chg.) 0.7% -0.2%

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U.S.: Softer consumption growth in August?Retail sales

m/m % chg.

NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Datastream)

Ex-autos

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NBF forecasts


What we’ll be watching

4

Elsewhere around the world, August data in China on credit, industrial production and retail sales will give some clues about Q3 GDP in the world’s second largest economy. In the Eurozone, July data on industrial production and trade will be released this week.


Consensus Cons.

Estimate EPS

6:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug 94.6 94.8

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Sep-09 0.90% --

8:30 CA Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM Aug 2.00% --

8:30 CA Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY Aug 10.90% --

8:30 US Current Account Balance 2Q -$124.7b -$120.0b Empire Co Ltd 0:00 Q1 2017 0.36

8:30 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Aug 0.00% -0.10% -0.30% Oracle Corp Aft-mkt Q1 2017 0.58

8:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Aug -0.30% 0.20% 0.20%

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-10 259k 265k

8:30 US PPI Final Demand MoM Aug -0.40% 0.10% 0.10%

8:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Aug -0.30% 0.10% 0.10%

8:30 US PPI Final Demand YoY Aug -0.20% 0.10% 0.10%

8:30 US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Aug 0.70% 1.00% 1.00%

8:30 US Empire Manufacturing Sep -4.2 -1.0

9:00 CA Existing Home Sales MoM Aug -1.30% --

9:15 US Industrial Production MoM Aug 0.70% -0.20% -0.20%

9:15 US Capacity Utilization Aug 75.90% 75.70% 75.80%

8:30 CA Int'l Securities Transactions Jul 9.02b --

8:30 CA Manufacturing Sales MoM Jul 0.80% 0.60% 1.30%

8:30 US CPI MoM Aug 0.00% 0.10% 0.10%

8:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Aug 0.10% 0.20% 0.20%

8:30 US CPI YoY Aug 0.80% 1.00% 1.00%

8:30 US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Aug 2.20% 2.20% 2.20%

10:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep P 89.8 91.0

16:00 US Total Net TIC Flows Jul -$202.8b --

Source: Bloomberg

5

Tuesday

Sep 13

Earnings announcements

Economic calendar - Canada & U.S.

Country Release NBF Estimate

Company Time Qtr

Economic releases & eventsPeriod PreviousTime

Sep 12

Monday

Sep 16

Wednesday

Sep 14

Thursday

Sep 15

Friday


Annex - Economic tables

September 9, 2016Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)

Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 July 2016 3228 -0.1 0.2 1.5 11.5 8.1 6.4 6.0 8.1

M2 July 2016 12892 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.5 5.8CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer Credit * July 2016 3661 0.5 0.4 0.6 6.8 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.9Mortgage (Banks) * July 2016 4026 0.7 0.5 0.7 7.1 7.4 7.1 6.6 3.8Business * July 2016 2064 0.4 0.3 0.7 8.9 11.2 9.5 10.0 11.8

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross June 2016 1813 0.4 0.6 0.6 6.3 6.2 6.6 6.1 4.4Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) July 2016 892 0.6 0.5 0.2 6.1 8.2 7.6 6.8 3.4

CREDIT MEASURESConsumer June 2016 556 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.7 2.3 2.7 2.5 3.1Mortgages June 2016 1396 0.5 0.4 0.4 5.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 5.5Short - Term Business Loans May 2016 499 0.6 1.4 -0.1 9.4 10.3 11.5 11.4 9.1Business (S.T. + L.T.) July 2016 1801 1.0 0.6 0.5 5.5 4.4 5.3 5.4 8.4Private (Consumer+Business) June 2016 3736 0.5 0.5 0.3 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.5Gov. of Canada securities outstanding July 2016 688 1.7 -1.0 1.3 9.4 2.8 3.9 3.9 -0.4

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 8 Sept 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.44 0.50 0.50 0.25Prime Rate * 8 Sept 16 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.44 3.50 3.50 3.253-month Treasury Bills * 8 Sept 16 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.29 0.27 0.22 0.25 0.31 0.022-year Bonds * 8 Sept 16 0.78 0.79 0.78 0.70 0.75 0.79 0.77 0.95 0.715-year Bonds * 8 Sept 16 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.11 1.20 1.33 1.22 1.45 1.5510-year Bonds * 8 Sept 16 1.62 1.57 1.58 1.55 1.68 1.88 1.68 1.94 2.2330-year Bonds * 8 Sept 16 2.32 2.23 2.26 2.29 2.45 2.66 2.48 2.70 2.99Corp. High-yield (BofA ML Master II) * 8 Sept 16 6.69 6.77 6.76 7.08 7.58 8.11 7.44 8.79 7.45Corp. Invest. Grade (BofA ML Corp. BBB) * 8 Sept 16 3.32 3.30 3.29 3.38 3.59 3.93 3.59 4.30 4.11

SpreadCorp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 8 Sept 16 5.07 5.20 5.19 5.53 5.90 6.24 5.76 6.85 5.22Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 8 Sept 16 1.71 1.73 1.71 1.83 1.91 2.06 1.90 2.37 1.88Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 8 Sept 16 1.98 1.90 1.93 2.00 2.18 2.44 2.23 2.39 2.97

EXCHANGE RATEFED Broad (Jan 97 = 100) * 2 Sept 16 121.49 121.66 121.86 121.17 120.87 121.38 121.59 123.57 119.98

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 8 Sept 16 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70 2.70Target overnight rate * 8 Sept 16 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.5030-day commercial paper * 8 Sept 16 0.86 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.89 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.753-month Treasury Bills * 8 Sept 16 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.47 0.51 0.46 0.381-year Treasury Bills * 8 Sept 16 0.56 0.56 0.52 0.54 0.55 0.52 0.55 0.52 0.465-year Bonds * 8 Sept 16 0.68 0.64 0.70 0.62 0.68 0.72 0.62 0.70 0.7810-year Bonds * 8 Sept 16 1.08 1.00 1.07 1.06 1.18 1.29 1.20 1.26 1.4930-year Bonds * 8 Sept 16 1.70 1.62 1.67 1.68 1.84 2.00 1.86 2.05 2.26SPREADSPrime - 30d. Commercial paper * 8 Sept 16 1.84 1.82 1.83 1.83 1.81 1.84 1.83 1.84 1.95Long Term - Short Term * 8 Sept 16 1.19 1.11 1.17 1.18 1.34 1.52 1.35 1.59 1.88

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS3-month T-Bills * 8 Sept 16 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.26 0.15 0.36Long Term Bonds * 8 Sept 16 -0.62 -0.61 -0.59 -0.61 -0.62 -0.67 -0.62 -0.65 -0.73

EXCHANGE RATEUS$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 8 Sept 16 0.7732 0.7632 0.7739 0.7714 0.7725 0.7559 0.7861 0.7493 0.7545Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 8 Sept 16 90.3 89.1 90.0 89.9 90.1 88.4 91.5 87.9 88.5

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%)Reference Past Prev. Month Year-to-dateThursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 8 Sept 16 18479.9 -0.3 2.1 0.8 2.6 8.9 12.0 5.2 -7.6S&P 500 (U.S.) * 8 Sept 16 2181.3 0.0 2.4 0.5 2.9 10.2 10.8 5.7 -4.4NASDAQ (U.S.) * 8 Sept 16 5259.5 0.9 5.2 -0.4 5.7 13.1 9.3 3.2 1.5S&P/TSX (Can.) * 8 Sept 16 14803.3 0.3 3.5 -0.4 3.4 11.2 8.6 14.6 -3.6

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted (3) compared to same period of the preceeding year,Source: Datastream unless otherwise stated

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORS

A1


Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (9)

Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators July 2016 0.4 0.3 -0.2 2.1 0.7 2.2 1.2 1.5 5.1Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) Aug 2016 101.1 96.7 97.4 98.4 96.4 96.7 101.3 96.3 98.1I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) Aug 2016 49.4 52.6 53.2 51.7 51.5 50.2 51.0 50.9 52.5

* Aug 2016 51.8 59.3 59.5 56.9 57.4 58.1 62.3 57.0 61.1

DOMESTIC DEMANDSales new autos & light trucks (000,000) Aug 2016 17.0 17.9 16.7 17.2 17.2 17.5 17.8 17.3 17.1Retail Sales July 2016 0.0 0.8 0.2 5.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.5

- Motor vehicle July 2016 1.1 0.5 -0.3 4.0 -0.9 4.2 2.4 2.7 7.0- Other July 2016 -0.3 0.9 0.3 6.3 3.3 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.2

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) July 2016 0.3 0.5 0.3 -7.4 0.2 2.5 -6.8 2.0 3.8Total ($ constant) July 2016 0.3 0.4 0.2 4.3 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.6 3.5

Personal Income July 2016 0.4 0.3 0.3 4.7 2.7 3.6 3.3 3.4 4.7Personal Savings Rate (3) July 2016 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.7New Orders * July 2016 1.9 -1.8 -1.2 -0.2 -1.9 -4.2 -3.5 -3.3 -6.8

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft * July 2016 1.5 0.5 -0.6 -1.3 -6.4 -4.2 -4.9 -4.3 -2.5Unfilled Orders * July 2016 -0.1 -0.9 0.0 -0.8 -1.4 -2.3 -2.2 -1.9 4.8Business Inventories June 2016 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.1 0.3 1.5 0.5 1.0 2.8Inventories / Shipments Businesses June 2016 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.37 1.40 1.37Manufacturers' Shipments * July 2016 -0.2 0.6 0.1 3.4 -2.3 -4.1 -3.0 -3.4 -3.9Manufacturers' Inventories * July 2016 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.9 -2.8 -2.7 -2.9 -3.0 -0.1Inventories / Shipments Manuf. * July 2016 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.35 1.36 1.36Housing Starts (000) (1) July 2016 1211 1186 1128 1175 1168 1155 1147 1162 1082New Home Sales, single-family July 2016 12.4 1.7 0.4 50.6 30.4 10.0 31.3 12.0 20.0Existing Home Sales, s.f. & condos July 2016 -3.2 1.1 1.5 16.3 3.4 3.9 -1.6 3.6 7.8

PRODUCTIONIndustrial Production July 2016 0.7 0.4 -0.2 1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -0.5 -1.2 1.2

- Consumer Goods July 2016 0.6 0.5 -0.4 2.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.5- Hitech goods July 2016 1.0 0.3 1.0 8.8 5.0 1.9 5.7 3.2 3.6

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCESExports July 2016 1.9 0.8 -0.1 7.0 -2.4 -5.7 -2.0 -4.8 -3.4Imports July 2016 -0.8 1.9 1.5 9.1 -2.9 -4.5 -1.8 -4.0 -2.6Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) July 2016 -39.5 -44.7 -42.0 -42.0 -41.2 -41.7 -39.9 -41.4 -41.5Real merchandise trade balance July 2016 -58.3 -64.5 -60.9 -61.2 -60.1 -60.4 -56.8 -60.3 -58.4Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) July 2016 -487.2 -523.6 -479.3 -488.4 -298.1 -288.9

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices July 2016 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.0

- Excluding Food and Energy July 2016 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.7PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy July 2016 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4Producer price index for final demand July 2016 -0.4 0.5 0.4 2.7 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.7Average Hourly Earnings (4) Aug 2016 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.0Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate July 2016 75.9 75.4 75.1 75.5 75.3 75.7 76.7 75.4 77.1Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) July 2016 -1.5 4.0 3.6 46.8 10.7 5.8 5.4 5.4 7.3

LABOUR MARKETNew Jobs (000) (6) Aug 2016 151 275 271 232 175 204 2447 1452 1749

- Manufacturing (000) Aug 2016 -14 6 8 0 -7 -3 -37 -39 24- Services (000) Aug 2016 175 264 276 238 189 201 2409 1530 1679

Average weekly hours (6) Aug 2016 -0.3 0.5 0.2 1.9 1.0 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.3Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) Aug 2016 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.4

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q2 2015 2014 2013 2012Real GDP Chained 2009 dollars 1.1 0.8 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.3Consumption 4.4 1.6 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9 1.5Residential Construction -7.7 7.8 11.5 12.6 14.8 13.4 11.7 3.5 11.9Business Investment -0.9 -3.4 -3.3 3.9 1.6 1.3 2.1 6.0 3.5

- Machinery and Equipment 4.1 11.8 -2.6 4.8 0.0 #VALUE! 6.9 0.0 #VALUE!Government Spending -1.5 1.6 1.0 1.9 3.2 2.6 1.8 -0.9 -2.9Exports 1.2 -0.7 -2.7 -2.8 2.8 -5.8 0.1 4.3 3.5Imports 0.3 -0.6 0.7 1.1 2.9 5.6 4.6 4.4 1.1Change in Inventories (1) (2) -12.4 40.7 56.9 70.9 93.8 114.4 84.0 57.7 78.7GDP Deflator 2.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.2 0.0 1.1 1.8 1.6Personal Disposable Income 2.3 2.1 3.0 3.3 3.9 2.0 3.5 3.5 -1.4

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2014 2013 2012Labour Productivity (4) -0.6 -0.6 -2.4 2.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.3Unit Labor Costs (4) 4.3 -0.3 5.7 0.8 3.6 0.7 2.0 2.0 1.0

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 2014 2013 2012Current Account (current $) -498.7 -453.6 -492.4 -447.6 -458.2 -430.9 -463.0 -392.1 -366.4

as a % of GDP -2.7 -2.5 -2.7 -2.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.6 -2.3 -2.2Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2014 2013 2012

Corporate Profits (8) -4.7 14.1 -22.3 -3.2 -11.4 -6.8 -3.0 5.9 1.7as a % of GDP 10.9 11.1 10.8 11.6 11.7 12.2 11.6 12.0 12.5

* Update Source: Datastream(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold (9) Compated to same period of the(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey preceeding year, unless otherwise(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey stated(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

- Non-manufacturing (level)

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORS

September 9, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A2


TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSSeptember 9, 2016

Annualized Growth (%) Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (6)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 3.7 -3.9 3.0 19.6 5.2 -7.5 5.5 -4.9 -7.3

DOMESTIC DEMANDRetail Sales ($ current) June 2016 -0.1 0.0 0.8 1.5 3.4 3.2 2.7 4.5 1.4

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers June 2016 2.0 -2.4 -0.6 -11.3 5.6 8.1 6.0 9.7 4.6- Other June 2016 -0.8 0.8 1.3 6.3 2.7 1.6 1.6 2.8 0.7

Retail Sales ($ constant) June 2016 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -2.3 3.0 1.9 1.7 2.9 1.5

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) June 2016 0.8 -1.0 0.9 -5.8 -2.9 -0.7 -1.9 0.3 -1.4New Orders June 2016 1.3 0.4 7.6 14.8 -2.4 -2.0 4.4 -0.7 -5.1

- Durables June 2016 2.1 0.7 13.3 22.4 0.4 0.0 12.4 1.3 -3.8Unfilled Orders June 2016 1.6 1.3 0.6 -2.8 -10.3 -1.9 -3.4 -8.1 11.7Manufacturer's Inventories June 2016 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -5.1 -4.8 1.0 -2.3 -1.0 0.9Inventories / Shipments Ratio June 2016 1.40 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.43Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) June 2016 0.5 -2.4 1.3 -4.6 0.8 -0.4 -1.0 1.1 0.1

Housing Starts (000) (1) * Aug 2016 182.7 194.7 218.4 198.6 195.6 198.4 214.0 195.6 188.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 -1.3 -1.0 -1.7 -1.7 10.5 7.2 4.6 9.0 6.0Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Sep 1900 5.2 0.4 -15.7 -13.1 4.2 -2.2 -2.6 -2.7 0.1PRODUCTION Real Domestic Product June 2016 0.6 -0.6 0.1 -1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1

- Manufacturing June 2016 1.8 -2.5 0.4 -4.8 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.9- Construction June 2016 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1 -2.9 -2.6 -5.0 -3.3 -3.8 -2.3

Services June 2016 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCESExports July 2016 3.4 0.1 -0.8 -2.1 -11.2 -1.7 -7.0 -2.5 -0.7Imports July 2016 -0.1 0.8 -0.5 0.6 -4.4 1.1 -2.6 -0.2 5.5

- Capital Goods July 2016 -2.6 -1.7 -4.4 -12.0 -5.8 1.8 -8.4 -1.6 9.2Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) July 2016 -2,488 -3,966 -3,636 -3,363 -3,214 -2,449 -479 -2,853 -1,863Change in Official Reserves * Aug 2016 852 -617 -777 -181 411 492 5,903 4,003 5,051

Level (US$): $83.8 billion Fiscal year Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) June 2016 -8.0 -5.8 -3.8 8.9 -1.0 5.0

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices July 2016 -0.2 0.2 0.4 3.7 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.0

- Excluding Food and Energy July 2016 -0.1 0.1 0.4 3.1 2.7 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.9- Core inflation (4) July 2016 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3

Average Hourly Earnings (2) * Aug 2016 0.1 -0.4 0.0 -4.1 0.6 2.6 1.5 2.4 2.6Price of New Housing icluding land * July 2016 0.4 0.1 0.7 4.6 2.6 1.9 2.8 2.2 1.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -2.6 15.1 11.8 10.6 13.8 7.8Industrial Prices (1992=100) July 2016 0.2 0.7 1.2 4.8 -2.2 -0.6 -1.3 -0.9 -1.3

LABOUR MARKETLabour Force * Aug 2016 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.9 0.7Job creation (000) * Aug 2016 26.2 -31.2 -0.7 -1.9 7.8 6.5 77.4 38.6 116.6

- Manufacturing * Aug 2016 2.9 5.6 -12.9 -1.5 -6.8 -1.4 -17.3 -43.9 10.8- Services * Aug 2016 15.4 -26.9 45.5 11.3 23.1 10.1 121.3 113.7 164.8- Full Time * Aug 2016 52.2 -71.4 -40.1 -19.8 5.7 -3.0 -35.7 -12.1 171.0- Part Time * Aug 2016 -26.0 40.2 39.4 17.9 2.1 9.4 113.1 50.7 -54.4

Unemployment Rate * Aug 2016 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013GDP Chained (2007) $ -1.6 2.5 0.5 2.2 -0.5 -1.0 1.1 2.5 2.2Household consumption 2.2 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.3 -0.1 1.9 2.6 2.4Business Investments, non-res., mach. & equip. -1.9 -8.1 -12.5 -11.4 -15.5 -23.2 -10.6 0.0 2.5

-Machinery and Equipment 1.9 -0.7 -8.1 -6.7 -15.7 -5.1 -2.4 1.0 -6.7Residential Construction 1.2 11.3 1.8 2.6 0.1 6.6 3.8 2.5 -0.4Government Expenditures 4.2 2.7 0.4 0.6 2.8 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.3Government Fixed Capital Formation 2.7 -1.3 -4.0 -1.6 -0.6 1.9 2.5 4.0 -6.4Final Domestic Demand 2.2 1.8 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -2.2 0.3 1.6 1.3Exports -16.7 8.0 -1.5 9.0 1.2 0.9 3.4 5.3 2.8Imports 1.1 1.6 -7.0 -2.8 -1.8 0.9 0.3 1.8 1.5Change in Inventories, chained (2007) $ (5) 0.5 -9.0 -5.6 -0.2 6.8 14.6 3.9 9.9 15.5Real Disposible Income 4.6 3.4 1.1 -2.6 7.4 0.8 2.6 1.2 3.4Personal savings Rate 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.2 4.8 4.6 4.2 5.4GDP Price Deflator 1.4 -1.4 0.0 0.0 1.8 -3.2 -0.5 1.7 1.6Corporate Profits (nominal) -33.0 -2.7 -19.1 -5.1 -2.6 -44.1 -15.8 7.0 0.8

as a % of GDP 9.8 10.9 11.0 11.6 11.8 11.9 11.6 13.8 13.5Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate * 80.0 81.4 80.9 81.2 80.2 81.4 80.9 82.1 80.8Labour Productivity, Business Sector -1.3 1.4 -0.1 0.6 -3.9 -2.7 -0.4 2.5 1.3Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector 3.0 -1.9 3.5 -1.5 2.2 5.7 1.9 1.1 1.6

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013Current Account (current $) (5) -79.4 -66.4 -62.8 -61.8 -58.0 -67.9 -62.6 -44.9 -59.7

as a % of GDP -4.0 -3.3 -3.2 -3.1 -2.9 -3.4 -3.2 -2.3 -3.0

Sources: Datasteam and Canadian Real Estate Association

* Update

(1) Annual Rate (4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect of indirect taxes

(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted (5) Annual rate, $ billions

(3) Current and before taxes (6) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated


Monthly Growth (%)

A3



QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 -0.8 0.9 0.1 0.7 5.0 2.9 3.5 4.5 -0.1Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 0.2 0.2 1.5 -5.3 -7.3 -2.2 -6.5 -3.0 0.5Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 36.2 32.5 38.4 35.7 35.7 38.2 39.8 36.5 34.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 1.1 0.0 0.1 6.7 5.3 5.4 6.6 6.2 5.6Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.5 0.7 -1.2 1.1 3.6 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.4Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -6.9 6.3 3.6 -3.8 -10.3 -0.6 -7.8 -3.4 11.5CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 1.3 4.1 1.9 6.3 10.2 5.7 13.3 9.4 -3.4Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 4.1 1.9 6.3 10.2 5.7 13.3 #VALUE! -3.4 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.1Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 1.0 -0.4 -0.2 -2.7 1.1 3.0 2.5 2.9 1.7Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 -0.8 0.5 1.1 4.7 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.2

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Aug 2016 21.9 -4.0 -11.2 2.2 3.1 2.8 33.6 19.1 34.1Unemployment rate * Aug 2016 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 8.0 7.3 7.7Participation rate * Aug 2016 64.4 64.1 64.2 64.2 64.3 64.6 65.0 64.4 64.8

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 0.0 -0.1 0.3 -0.6 3.8 5.3 3.3 6.0 3.9Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 1.4 -1.6 0.1 -12.3 1.7 4.8 4.0 6.5 0.5Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 72.2 75.4 87.8 78.5 76.8 76.1 95.0 75.5 64.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 9.9 11.6 8.0 7.4 8.3 11.0Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.6 0.2 0.2 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.9Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -13.8 3.3 -1.5 -27.7 -8.5 9.5 -7.7 7.5 10.1CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 2.4 -0.5 -6.6 -0.3 3.5 -4.6 2.3 -2.9 -1.3Number of commercial bankrupties (1) May 2016 #REF! #REF! #REF! 3.5 -4.6 2.3 #VALUE! -1.3 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 -0.1 0.2 0.4 4.2 2.8 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.3Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 -0.1 -0.6 0.4 -4.4 0.4 3.0 1.5 2.8 2.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 0.8 0.4 1.4 9.9 4.8 3.7 5.3 4.2 2.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 0.7 1.4 1.4 14.7 17.4 10.5 13.6 12.4 7.4

LABOR MARKET

Job creation (000) * Aug 2016 10.5 -36.1 -4.2 -9.9 0.4 3.1 37.2 11.0 58.3

Unemployment rate * Aug 2016 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.7 6.7Participation rate * Aug 2016 64.8 64.6 65.0 64.8 65.0 65.1 65.3 65.1 65.2

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADORDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 0.6 1.0 0.9 5.5 2.4 1.5 1.6 2.9 0.2Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 -0.1 -7.6 1.3 8.9 -35.7 -11.9 -32.7 -22.2 -9.6Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.8Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 -11.1 7.8 -8.2 -1.8 7.2 2.7 -10.2 1.7 3.6Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.9 -1.4 0.6 3.0 -0.9 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 3.7Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -15.7 19.9 25.3 302.8 -17.6 -16.9 19.8 -17.3 -37.1CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 -24.4 9.3 2.5 -12.8 -45.4 -13.8 -33.7 -17.3 -14.7Number of commercial bankrupties (1) May 2016 9.3 2.5 -12.8 -45.4 -13.8 -33.7 0.0 -14.7 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 0.9 1.1 0.5 8.3 3.4 1.5 3.4 2.1 0.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -10.7 -5.0 -1.1 0.3 -1.0 -1.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 -5.9 6.3 -2.2 -7.0 -9.4 -4.3 -7.3 -7.1 -4.5

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Aug 2016 3.9 -5.0 -1.8 -1.0 0.7 -0.3 -3.3 3.1 1.6Unemployment * Aug 2016 12.3 12.8 12.0 12.4 12.4 13.1 11.7 12.9 12.5Participation rate * Aug 2016 60.5 59.8 60.6 60.3 60.5 60.8 61.3 60.5 61.0

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 0.2 0.6 0.9 8.5 6.8 4.6 4.5 6.6 2.1Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 -12.9 1.2 1.4 -22.8 -12.8 -1.5 -16.0 -2.1 3.9Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 -6.8 -5.9 7.5 29.5 34.6 27.8 13.9 25.7 13.5Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.6 0.4 -0.1 3.4 2.1 4.5 3.9 4.2 2.4Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 5.1 7.6 8.2 83.6 -19.7 7.3 8.0 1.8 19.0CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 2.5 1.1 -9.3 4.5 24.4 -1.4 4.7 -2.8 19.1Number of commercial bankrupties (1) May 2016 1.1 9.3 4.5 24.4 1.4 4.7 #VALUE! 19.1 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 -0.5 0.3 0.2 3.5 2.2 0.6 0.6 1.1 -0.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 -0.1 0.8 -1.8 -13.3 0.3 1.4 3.8 1.1 2.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.3 1.9 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 -6.1 11.3 -2.4 13.7 21.4 2.6 5.4 6.6 1.2

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Aug 2016 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -1.1 -1.6 -1.0Unemployment * Aug 2016 12.1 9.6 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.4 10.5 10.8 10.7Participation rate * Aug 2016 66.3 64.7 65.8 65.6 65.8 66.3 66.8 65.9 67.7

Sources: Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS

September 9, 2016Monthly Growth (%)

A4


September 9, 2016 Annualized Growth (%)

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since Year-to-date (3)Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 -0.8 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.5 3.1 0.5 5.2 -2.3Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 -2.3 5.4 -2.1 3.6 -7.6 7.1 0.7 4.5 3.8Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 2.7 4.3 4.9 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 4.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 -3.2 -2.6 -1.0 -13.9 9.6 2.3 1.2 3.8 4.7Wages and Salaries June 2016 1.1 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 1.7 2.5 2.0 2.1 1.6Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -10.3 -1.6 24.7 59.0 -5.4 7.2 -8.3 0.1 -7.7CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 6.6 -4.9 -3.8 -22.6 -14.1 2.5 -5.2 -1.3 10.9Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 -4.9 -3.8 -22.6 -14.1 2.5 -5.2 #VALUE! 10.9 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 -0.5 0.2 0.5 4.1 2.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.3Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 0.3 -0.4 1.9 2.8 3.3 0.9 4.1 2.0 1.6Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 -0.1 1.0 -0.6 5.3 -2.4 0.6 -1.6 -0.9 1.8

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Aug 2016 -0.1 -1.4 0.6 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -2.9 -0.7 -3.0Unemployment * Aug 2016 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.6 8.6Participation rate * Aug 2016 61.6 61.6 61.7 61.7 61.9 62.0 62.2 61.9 62.4

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 1.8 -1.3 3.3 5.0 2.4 5.2 3.8 6.7 1.0Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 -4.1 -6.3 7.6 4.7 0.9 -12.9 -16.7 -11.3 -5.0Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 1.2 2.4 4.3 61.5 -10.3 5.4 5.8 5.1 7.1Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.5 3.1 3.5 4.7 3.6 2.5Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -8.4 -6.7 30.5 172.2 13.0 -17.6 -9.7 -19.0 -0.5CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 -0.5 -2.5 13.8 69.2 -4.0 -2.5 3.2 -2.3 4.3Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 -2.5 13.8 69.2 -4.0 -2.5 3.2 #VALUE! 4.3 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 0.7 0.3 0.3 5.4 3.2 1.4 2.5 1.9 0.4Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 0.8 0.5 -0.2 -1.8 1.1 0.3 2.9 0.5 4.4Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.5Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 0.3 -0.9 2.1 16.9 1.2 0.2 -2.4 0.5 -1.5

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Aug 2016 -3.0 5.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.9 -1.2 -0.7Unemployment * Aug 2016 9.4 9.7 10.3 9.8 9.9 9.5 9.8 9.8 10.2Participation rate * Aug 2016 62.2 63.0 62.5 62.6 62.2 62.2 62.5 62.2 62.9

MANITOBADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 -0.2 0.8 -1.0 -3.8 5.7 4.6 4.7 6.7 0.3Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 -0.2 -4.4 2.0 -12.3 -1.2 -0.3 -2.0 0.9 -1.6Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 4.9 8.1 5.2 6.1 5.3 5.4 4.9 5.3 5.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 1.8 -0.4 -5.1 -9.5 9.2 5.2 4.7 6.4 0.5Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.0 1.9 2.6 3.2Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -5.0 -4.5 3.2 -10.3 -6.1 2.9 2.6 0.7 -0.4CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 -0.6 -2.4 0.1 9.5 -18.0 -1.2 4.2 -1.1 -7.7Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 -2.4 0.1 9.5 -18.0 -1.2 4.2 #VALUE! -7.7 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 -0.8 0.9 0.6 5.8 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 0.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -2.0 -2.1 3.4 0.8 2.8 2.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.8Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 -0.1 1.6 0.2 0.4 3.7 1.8 0.6 2.3 1.5

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Aug 2016 -2.4 0.2 0.0 -0.7 0.5 -0.1 -1.7 -0.1 0.8Unemployment * Aug 2016 5.9 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.7 6.0 5.6Participation rate * Aug 2016 67.3 67.8 67.9 67.7 67.7 67.8 68.2 67.7 68.4

SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 2.1 -0.5 1.0 4.8 3.4 -1.1 2.7 1.1 -3.7Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 4.3 3.1 0.9 11.0 1.7 -7.1 2.9 -2.0 -11.5Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 6.6 5.9 4.8 5.7 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.9 5.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 2.8 -3.0 -2.8 -11.1 -12.7 -7.9 -6.6 -5.9 -11.1Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.4 -0.5 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.2 -0.1 2.9Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 7.8 4.3 -6.5 -13.8 -37.9 -16.6 -17.9 -23.1 -7.1CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 7.4 -6.6 6.5 42.7 -17.1 -5.9 -11.2 -3.0 -18.3Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 -6.6 6.5 42.7 -17.1 -5.9 -11.2 #VALUE! -18.3 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 -0.4 0.5 0.3 3.3 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.5Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 0.4 -0.3 -1.0 -7.0 1.9 2.9 2.6 3.0 2.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.8 -2.0 -1.4 -2.0 -1.6 -0.5Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 1.4 0.9 -0.1 4.8 -1.0 -1.5 -0.8 -1.5 0.1

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Aug 2016 -0.4 -0.5 1.0 0.0 0.6 -0.4 -4.5 -6.1 -1.2Unemployment * Aug 2016 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 5.9 4.8 6.1 4.8Participation rate * Aug 2016 69.8 69.9 69.9 69.8 69.8 70.1 69.8 69.8 69.9

Sources: Datastream and Canadian Real estate Association* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)

Monthly Growth (%)

A5



ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 -0.4 -1.0 1.9 3.2 -3.3 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 -3.8Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 1.8 -1.0 3.7 19.7 -15.6 -14.8 -12.1 -13.2 -11.3Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 20.0 25.8 24.1 23.3 23.8 27.2 34.6 23.6 39.1Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 0.8 3.3 -1.9 29.9 -9.5 -16.5 -11.3 -11.1 -20.4Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.4 -2.1 0.0 -7.1 -6.0 -4.3 -5.5 -5.3 2.0Value of merchandise exports (1) July 2016 -1.2 10.2 3.4 21.8 -38.2 -25.4 -27.9 -24.2 -21.9CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 -2.5 9.9 22.8 409.9 31.2 -36.2 12.8 -24.8 -34.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 9.9 22.8 409.9 31.2 -36.2 12.8 #VALUE! -34.6 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 -0.5 0.5 0.4 3.6 1.2 1.5 0.7 1.4 0.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 -1.2 0.3 -0.5 -6.4 1.5 3.0 0.2 2.5 3.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 1.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 3.5 -0.7 0.5 8.4 1.1 -1.8 1.9 -0.8 -1.2

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Aug 2016 2.7 -1.4 -1.9 -0.2 -4.4 -4.5 -53.4 -35.2 -1.4Unemployment * Aug 2016 8.4 8.6 7.9 8.3 7.8 7.5 6.1 7.8 5.7Participation rate * Aug 2016 72.2 72.3 71.8 72.1 72.2 72.6 73.0 72.4 73.1

BRITISH COLUMBIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUERetail Sales June 2016 0.2 -0.1 2.1 6.8 6.9 6.2 5.2 6.7 6.4Manufacturing Shipments June 2016 -0.4 1.1 -2.0 -0.1 3.1 0.3 1.5 1.2 4.4Housing Starts (000) (2) * Aug 2016 35.4 39.5 49.8 41.6 41.9 39.1 27.4 42.6 31.2Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2016 -5.6 -5.8 -5.4 -33.0 26.8 25.4 8.6 27.6 21.9Wages and Salaries June 2016 0.2 -0.3 1.2 6.1 4.4 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.3Value of merchandise exports July 2016 9.1 -0.2 -1.0 1.2 1.4 0.7 7.2 0.9 0.7CFIB Business Barometer ® Aug 2016 -1.2 -4.1 3.1 13.5 6.0 -8.0 2.3 -7.1 -2.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * May 2016 -4.1 3.1 13.5 6.0 -8.0 2.3 #VALUE! -2.6 #VALUE!PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2016 0.2 0.3 0.7 5.3 2.5 1.7 2.1 1.9 0.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) * Aug 2016 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 1.7 0.9 1.1 2.8Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) * July 2016 0.6 0.4 1.0 7.4 5.9 3.2 5.3 4.2 0.2Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2016 -0.9 -1.8 -1.8 -16.4 13.1 15.8 10.2 17.3 10.4

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) * Aug 2016 -6.6 12.1 16.0 7.2 5.8 6.0 72.6 50.4 29.3Unemployment * Aug 2016 5.5 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.0Participation rate * Aug 2016 64.1 64.4 64.4 64.3 64.3 64.2 63.5 64.3 63.1

Sources: Datastream, Canadian Real estate Association and BCStats

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate (3) Compared to sdame priod of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated

Monthly Growth (%)September 9, 2016

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)

A6


TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSSeptember 9, 2016


OECD leading index * July 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) Aug 2016 42.6 41.6 42.5 42.2 41.8 41.5 42.2 41.5 41.3Retail Sales (1) July 2016 6.0 -1.8 0.7 4.2 -3.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7Industrial Production, Volume Index July 2016 0.0 2.3 -2.6 2.0 -2.6 -1.7 -0.5 -2.2 -1.5Exports July 2016 -1.8 1.6 -1.5 -7.5 -13.6 -6.6 -11.6 -9.6 8.0Imports July 2016 -1.6 0.5 1.0 -9.7 -23.9 -15.2 -20.5 -18.0 -6.5Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) * July 2016 3,616 4,658 3,286 3,853 3,737 2,134 -1,207 24,604 -7,036Current account (Billions of ¥) * July 2016 145 165 141 150 161 154 138 1,111 892Inflation (CPI) July 2016 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 1.3Job offers to applicants ratio July 2016 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.37 1.34 1.29 1.21 1.33 1.17Unemployment Rate July 2016 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.4

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) * 0.7 2.1 -1.7 2.1 -1.9 5.0 0.6 -0.1 1.4

Euro-zoneVolume Retail Sales * July 2016 1.1 -0.1 0.4 2.6 1.7 2.3 2.4 1.9 2.9Industrial Production exc. Construction June 2016 0.6 -1.1 1.3 -1.6 1.3 1.7 0.4 1.1 1.9Exports June 2016 0.5 -1.7 0.4 -0.9 -1.6 0.9 -2.3 -1.5 6.5Imports June 2016 1.5 -1.5 0.0 -8.3 -5.0 -1.6 -5.1 -4.1 2.8Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) June 2016 23,415 24,598 25,293 24,435 24,855 23,316 21,692 138,382 117,168Inflation (CPI) Aug 2016 0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0Unemployment Rate July 2016 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.8 10.2 11.1

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2013 2012 2011Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) * 1.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 3.3 -0.4 -0.7 0.0

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) Aug 2016 -8 -9 -1 -6 -3 -1 3 -2 4Retail Sales July 2016 1.4 -0.9 1.0 7.5 4.9 4.4 5.9 4.7 4.5Manufacturing, energy and mining output * July 2016 0.1 0.0 -0.7 4.1 2.1 1.1 2.1 1.1 1.3Exports (1) * July 2016 3.4 1.0 -8.4 -8.5 12.2 -1.4 10.3 1.2 -2.0Imports (1) * July 2016 -0.9 5.1 -3.3 13.2 10.6 0.2 8.1 3.2 0.4Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) * July 2016 -11,764 -12,920 -11,359 -12,014 -11,553 -10,403 -10,361 -79,274 -73,706

Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) July 2016 -0.1 0.2 0.2 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1Producer price index, manufacturing (1) July 2016 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.2 1.0 -1.0 0.3 -0.5 -1.7House prices * Aug 2016 -0.2 -1.1 1.2 3.0 6.8 8.7 4.1 8.3 8.7Unemployment Rate (3-month mov. av.) June 2016 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.6 5.0 5.6

Q2 2016 Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 2015 2014 2013Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) 2.4 1.8 2.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.2 3.1 1.9

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 8 Sept 16 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 8 Sept 16 -0.29 -0.26 -0.24 -0.27 -0.28 -0.16 -0.27 -0.09 0.00

- Spread with U.S. * 8 Sept 16 -0.63 -0.59 -0.57 -0.56 -0.55 -0.39 -0.52 -0.40 -0.02Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 8 Sept 16 -0.05 -0.05 -0.08 -0.16 -0.12 0.05 -0.14 -0.03 0.33

- Spread with U.S. * 8 Sept 16 -1.66 -1.62 -1.66 -1.71 -1.80 -1.83 -1.82 -1.97 -1.89Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 8 Sept 16 102.5 103.2 100.5 103.1 106.2 112.2 107.1 113.2 120.6

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 8 Sept 16 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.19 -0.25 -0.21 -0.04

- Spread with U.S. * 8 Sept 16 -0.59 -0.58 -0.58 -0.54 -0.52 -0.41 -0.50 -0.52 -0.06Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 8 Sept 16 0.00 120.30 119.98 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00 0.00 $$ER: E100

- Spread with U.S. * 8 Sept 16 -1.62 118.73 118.41 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -1.68 -1.94 #VALUE!Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 8 Sept 16 1.13 1.12 1.13 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.13 1.12 1.13

(Yen/Euro) * 8 Sept 16 114.80 115.59 113.45 115.17 119.47 125.11 120.72 123.87 135.38(Euro / £ ) * 8 Sept 16 1.18 1.19 1.17 1.20 1.24 1.29 1.27 1.30 1.38

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!3-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 8 Sept 16 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.33 0.38 0.43 0.42 0.46 0.44

- Spread with U.S. * 8 Sept 16 -0.12 -0.11 -0.11 0.03 0.11 0.21 0.17 0.15 0.42Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 8 Sept 16 1.39 1.28 1.27 1.57 1.92 2.22 2.07 2.34 2.53

- Spread with U.S. * 8 Sept 16 -0.93 -0.95 -0.99 -0.72 -0.53 -0.45 -0.41 -0.36 -0.46Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 8 Sept 16 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.34 1.39 1.43 1.45 1.43 1.54

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) Since

Past Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Sept 2016 222 0.9 4.5 -4.1 1.1 7.2 -0.5 -3.9 -7.6

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Compared to same period of the preceeding year, unless otherwise stated Source: Datastream


Monthly Growth (%)

A7


Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)

Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Sept 8 Sept 1 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

INDICES THOMSON-REUTERS

Total 423.3 413.2 2.4 -1.3 -1.6 -9.7 21.9 6.9 396.0

Energy 408.7 385.5 6.0 -5.6 0.5 3.2 76.0 1.6 402.2Grain 279.4 269.8 3.5 -1.4 -3.9 -56.7 -8.0 -4.4 292.2Industrials 349.3 344.1 1.5 0.0 -3.0 20.3 15.6 -2.6 358.7Livestock & Meat 291.8 300.9 -3.0 0.9 -2.6 -58.3 -41.6 -20.8 368.2Precious Metals 883.7 857.5 3.1 -0.3 -4.6 41.4 30.0 21.7 726.2

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1348.00 1305.70 3.2 -1.4 -1.7 31.7 16.8 21.7 1107.75(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 1093.0 1051.0 4.0 -3.0 -3.6 42.7 24.6 10.6 988.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 0.2 0.2 4.6 1.6 -6.2 68.9 59.9 34.0 0.1(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 694.0 666.0 4.2 -2.8 -2.3 142.7 47.7 17.4 591.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 1,573 1,596 -1.5 -2.1 -2.3 0.8 2.9 -2.8 1,618

Copper ($/tonne) 4,647 4,620 0.6 0.1 -3.7 13.6 -10.1 -14.2 5,417

Zinc ($/tonne) 2,305 2,344 -1.7 1.8 0.4 55.5 71.2 27.6 1,806

Nickel ($/tonne) 10,300 9,854 4.5 0.6 -4.9 79.9 39.3 -1.2 10,420

Lead ($/tonne) 1,915 1,924 -0.5 3.9 -1.7 62.0 10.4 11.2 1,722

Uranium (UxC-Ux U308 Spot $/pound) 25.50 25.25 1.0 -1.9 -1.0 -33.6 -32.8 -31.5 37.25

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil WTI ($/barrel) future 47.62 43.16 10.3 -8.8 -1.8 -21.3 58.4 3.7 45.92(NYMEX)

Oil (Spead with WTI $/barrel) 1st future -14.05 -14.20 -1.1 -2.4 0.0 78.8 9.1 4.5 -13.45(West Canadian select - CME)

Corn (¢/bushel) 3.2 3.0 4.6 -1.9 -2.5 -63.7 -20.3 -9.7 3.5(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (¢/bushel) 9.9 9.2 7.4 -7.3 -3.6 -44.7 28.6 14.6 8.6(Illinois #1)

Pork (¢/lb) 128.2 128.2 0.0 0.0 -1.6 38.9 5.1 -21.6 163.4

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 138.3 142.6 -3.0 -3.2 -0.5 -25.1 -24.9 -32.7 205.5(CME)

Soft Wood Pulp (HWWI) 96 96 0.0 -1.9 -0.1 -9.0 1.5 -2.0 98Index 2010 = 100

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 2.84 2.92 -2.7 2.1 5.5 128.5 179.1 4.8 2.71Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 305 309 -1.3 -2.6 -1.1 2.7 20.4 26.0 242

Iron ore ($/metric ton) 59 59 0.0 -4.9 0.8 48.4 -2.7 0.9 58

All prices are in US dollars Source: Datastream

Annex - Economic tablesTABLE 6 - COMMODITY PRICES

September 9, 2016

A8


ECONOMICS AND STRATEGY

Montreal Office Toronto Office 514-879-2529 416-869-8598 Stéfane Marion Marc Pinsonneault Warren Lovely Chief Economist & Strategist Senior Economist MD, Public Sector Research and Strategy [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Paul-André Pinsonnault Matthieu Arseneau Senior Fixed Income Economist Senior Economist [email protected] [email protected]

Krishen Rangasamy Angelo Katsoras Senior Economist Geopolitical Analyst [email protected] [email protected]

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September 9, 2016 · weak economic growth. We expect this situation to reverse for the remainder of the year with stronger economic growth and softer hiring as Canadian firms strive