SEPTEMBER 12, 2017 · 2018. 4. 3. · osamresearch.com “In any sector, trade the leading stock — the one showing the strongest trend.” — Jesse Livermore, “The Original Momentum

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o s a m . c o m | o s a m r e s e a r c h . c o m

SEPTEMBER 12, 2017

Ehren J. Stanhope, CFA

Principal

203.975.3342 Tel

[email protected]

osamresearch.com

2

The Universal Investing Process

Financial

statement data

Stock price

information

Industry trends

Management

interviews

Financial Modeling

Recognition of

technical patterns

Evaluation of

management quality

Evaluation of future

business prospects

Data Analysis Action

Buy AAPL

Sell TSLA

Overweight IBM

Underweight GE

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see important information titled “General Legal Disclosures & Hypothetical and/or Backtested Results Disclaimer” at the end of this presentation.

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“In any sector, trade the leading

stock — the one showing the

strongest trend.”

— Jesse Livermore, “The Original Momentum Investor”

3

Early 1900s

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Rules-Based Trading Systems

“The human side of every person

is the greatest enemy of the

average investor or speculator.”


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$919.24

$126.93

S&P 500 (10%)

1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Value

Quality

Financial Strength

Growth

✓P/E < 15 ✓ P/B < 1.5

✓at least twice as many short-term assets

as current debts

✓ long-term debt < net current assets

✓ profits up in the past year

“Defensive Investor” (strategy annualized return: 14.5%)

4

1900

1910

1920

1930

1949

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor


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1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1964

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Capital Asset Pricing Model

Return =

RF + β × Return Market

Risk Free Rate = 0%

Return of Market = 10%

Beta = 1.2

Expected Return = 12% = 0% + 1.2 × 10%


http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=http://www.financeformulas.net/Capital-Asset-Pricing-Model.html&ei=538_Vdz8GovBggSPv4G4Aw&bvm=bv.91665533,d.eXY&psig=AFQjCNGOFicaZGlA_LSbX8lGPwfI0XNMkw&ust=1430311256693847

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1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970s to present

2020

2030

Behavioral Finance vs. EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis)

Draws on psychology to understand how & why

investors stray from the rational

Behavior-based framework

Behavioral Finance

Academic centers:

Yale School of Management

Harvard

Princeton


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1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1973

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Behavioral Finance

overconfidence

loss aversion

recency




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β

The First Index Fund

“Don’t look for the needle in the haystack.

Just buy the haystack!”

— John Bogle

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1975

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

8 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Please see important information titled “General Legal Disclosures & Hypothetical and/or Backtested Results Disclaimer” at the end of this presentation.



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10.9% 11.2%

11.6%

13.6%

16.0%

9 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see important information titled “General Legal Disclosures & Hypothetical and/or Backtested Results Disclaimer” at the end of this presentation.

Cheapest Decile

OSAM Value

Cheapest Decile

P/S

Equal Sales

Weighting by:

Market

Cap

S&P 500 Universe returns

(1964–2016)

Simple implementation

Low turnover

Lots of capacity

Low cost

Buy the market:

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10

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1992

2000

2010

2020

2030

Fama/French’s 3-factor Model

market size value

Required return of a stock =

RF + βmkt × Return Market + βsize × Return Size + βval × Return Value


The origins of "smart" beta:

1 2 3



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1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1992

2000

2010

2020

2030

Morningstar Style BoxTM

Size

Large

Mid

Small

Introduction of “style box” based on P/B and P/E …




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When targets become benchmarks…


Source: osamlibrary.com “P/B’s Growing Blind Spot” (Nov. 2016)

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

OSAM

Value Quintile Spreads

P/B

P/B’s growing

blind spot:

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1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990s

2000

2010

2020

2030

“Fundamental” Index Method

Presented as an

alternative to

cap-weighted index:




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10.9% 11.2%

11.6%

13.6%

16.0%


S&P 500 Universe — Returns (1964–2016)

Cheapest Decile

OSAM Value

Cheapest Decile

P/S

Equal Sales

Weighting by:

Market Cap

Fundamentals

start to improve…

Alternative to

Market Cap indexation

Low turnover

Lots of capacity

Value “tilt”

Value tilting:

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10.9% 11.2%

11.6%

13.6%

16.0%



Cheapest Decile

OSAM Value

Cheapest Decile

P/S Equal Sales

Weighting:

Market Cap

Equal-weighting

is better…

Occam’s Razor:

simplest

implementation

is best

Equal-weighting:

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1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990s

2000

2010

2020

2030

Computing Power & Capacity

Momentum Asness, Jegadeesh, O’Shaughnessy

Value Lakonishok, O’Shaughnessy

Earnings Quality Sloan

Convergence of computing power & data capacity

allows broader testing of factor investing:

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10.9%

11.2%

11.6%

13.6%

16.0%

Single-factor:



Cheapest Decile

OSAM Value

Equal Sales

Removing market cap exposure

improves results…

P/S Market Cap

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Factor Return

Sharpe

Ratio

3-year

Base Rate Strength Weakness

Price/Sales 15.66% 0.51 74.5%

Great measure for high

growth companies,

not subject to

account manipulation

Bias towards

lower margin

companies

Universe Return

All Stocks 11.64%


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Factor Return

Sharpe

Ratio

3-year


Price/Sales 15.66% 0.51 74.5%


growth companies,

not subject to


Bias towards

lower margin companies

Price/Earnings 16.32% 0.61 86.4% Industry standard,

bottom line

valuation metric

Earnings subject to


Universe Return

All Stocks 11.64%


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Factor Return

Sharpe

Ratio

3-year


Price/Sales 15.66% 0.51 74.5%


growth companies,

not subject to


Bias towards


Price/Earnings 16.32% 0.61 86.4%

Industry standard,

bottom line

valuation metric

Earnings subject to


EBITDA/

Enterprise Value 16.94% 0.67 88.5%

Normalizes for

capital structure

(enterprise value)

Ignores depreciation

and other charges

Universe Return

All Stocks 11.64%


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Factor Return

Sharpe

Ratio

3-year


Price/Sales 15.66% 0.51 74.5%


growth companies,

not subject to


Bias towards



Industry standard,

bottom line

valuation metric

Earnings subject to


EBITDA/


Normalizes for

capital structure

(enterprise value)


and other charges

Free Cash Flow/


No manipulation,

true profit

Many firms don't have

positive free cash flow

Universe Return

All Stocks 11.64%


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Factor Return

Sharpe

Ratio

3-year


Price/Sales 15.66% 0.51 74.5%


growth companies,

not subject to


Bias towards



Industry standard,

bottom line

valuation metric

Earnings subject to


EBITDA/


Normalizes for

capital structure

(enterprise value)


and other charges

Free Cash Flow/


No manipulation,

true profit



Shareholder

Yield 15.57% 0.69 79.1%

Buybacks a robust

"insider" signal

Biases towards more

mature companies

Universe Return

All Stocks 11.64%


osamresearch.com

Factor Return

Sharpe

Ratio

3-year


Price/Sales 15.66% 0.51 74.5%


growth companies,

not subject to


Bias towards



Industry standard,

bottom line

valuation metric

Earnings subject to


EBITDA/


Normalizes for

capital structure

(enterprise value)


and other charges

Free Cash Flow/


No manipulation,

true profit



Shareholder

Yield 15.57% 0.69 79.1%

Buybacks a robust

"insider" signal

Biases towards more

mature companies

OSAM Value 18.01% 0.78 95.6% Higher, less volatile,

and more consistent returns

All Stocks 11.64%


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Market Cap

10.9%

11.2%

11.6%

13.6%

16.0%

Multi-factor:



Value Equal Sales P/S

Combining factors

is even more compelling…

cheapest deciles

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6 multi-factor themes

make up each stock’s factor profile & drive returns


Value Stocks trading at large discounts to current sales, earnings, EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow

Momentum Stocks with impressive and stable recent total returns

Shareholder Yield Stocks returning high amounts of cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks

Earnings Growth Stocks whose profitability is high and trending up

Financial Strength Stocks that use debt responsibly, and aren’t overly reliant on outside financing

Earnings Quality Stocks with strong cash flows and conservative accounting

Value, Momentum, and Shareholder Yield

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Quality themes — interaction

26

Eliminating poor-quality stocks is a critical step:

Financial

Strength

Earnings

Quality

Earnings

Growth

Sh

are

ho

lde

r Y

ield

*

1 15.3 16.4 15.7

2 15.2 14.7 15.0

3 14.4 13.9 15.1

4 13.9 13.1 13.8

5 11.7 11.4 12.4

* Highest quintile.

All Stocks Universe Source: Compustat Database, OSAM calculations (1964–2015)

Financial

Strength

Earnings

Quality

Earnings

Growth

OS

AM

Va

lue

*

1 16.8 17.6 16.5

2 16.4 16.2 16.4

3 15.7 15.1 16.2

4 15.7 14.5 15.2

5 13.3 12.7 14.1

Financial

Strength

Earnings

Quality

Earnings

Growth

OS

AM

Mo

me

ntu

m*

1 15.7 16.4 15.9

2 15.7 15.2 14.9

3 15.0 14.3 14.3

4 14.7 14.5 13.4

5 12.3 13.3 10.4


Annualized Returns (%)

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27

Source: Morningstar “Direct Asset Flows Commentary: United States” (January 2017) corporate.morningstar.com/us/documents/assetflows/assetflowsjan2017.pdf


U.S. Flows: Active vs. Passive

outflows inflows

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Active management?


0

25

50

75

100

Passive

outperforms.

Russell 1000® Index vs. PSN Large Cap Manager Universe (Net of Fees)

Active

outperforms. (Active beats Passive in 133 of 301 rolling 5-year periods.)

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more

least

potential Alpha

smallest larger AUM

Is "smart beta" the killer app?


Source: osamlibrary.com “Alpha or Assets?” (April 2016)

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Value — historical excess return

30

6.3%

4.3%

3.6%

2.1%

0.9%

-0.3

%

-1.9

%

-3.6

%

-5.8

%

-10.

2%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1 5

10

2 3 4

7 6 8 9


cheapest most expensive

Value deciles:

Source: Compustat & OSAM calculations (1963–2014)

osamresearch.com

underweight: overweight:

"Smart beta" investor

31

6.3%

4.3%

3.6%

2.1%

0.9%

-0.3

%

-1.9

%

-3.6

%

-5.8

%

-10.

2%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1 5

10

2 3 4

7 6 8 9



osamresearch.com

avoid: own

:

Factor AlphaSM investor

32

6.3%

4.3%

3.6%

2.1%

0.9%

-0.3

%

-1.9

%

-3.6

%

-5.8

%

-10.

2%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

1 5

10

2 3 4

7 6 8 9



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Contact Information

Financial advisors, multi-family offices, and brokerage/wealth mgmt. firms with

interest in O’Shaughnessy strategies contact:

Matt Greene, CFA

Vice President

203-975-3344 (office)

203-984-9776 (cell)

[email protected]

O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC | 6 Suburban Ave. | Stamford, CT 06901

osamresearch.com

General Legal Disclosures & Hypothetical and/or Backtested Results Disclaimer

39 9/9/2017

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this piece will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this piece serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC. Any individual account performance information reflects the reinvestment of dividends (to the extent applicable), and is net of applicable transaction fees, O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC’s investment management fee (if debited directly from the account), and any other related account expenses. Account information has been compiled solely by O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC, has not been independently verified, and does not reflect the impact of taxes on non-qualified accounts. In preparing this report, O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC has relied upon information provided by the account custodian. Please defer to formal tax documents received from the account custodian for cost basis and tax reporting purposes. Please remember to contact O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose, add, or modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. Please Note: Unless you advise, in writing, to the contrary, we will assume that there are no restrictions on our services, other than to manage the account in accordance with your designated investment objective. Please Also Note: Please compare this statement with account statements received from the account custodian. The account custodian does not verify the accuracy of the advisory fee calculation. Please advise us if you have not been receiving monthly statements from the account custodian. Historical performance results for investment indices and/or categories have been provided for general comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. It should not be assumed that your account holdings correspond directly to any comparative indices. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request.

The risk-free rate used in the calculation of Sortino, Sharpe, and Treynor ratios is 5%, consistently applied across time.

The universe of All Stocks consists of all securities in the Chicago Research in Security Prices (CRSP) dataset or S&P Compustat Database (or other, as noted) with inflation-adjusted market capitalization greater than $200 million as of most recent year-end. The universe of Large Stocks consists of all securities in the Chicago Research in Security Prices (CRSP) dataset or S&P Compustat Database (or other, as noted) with inflation-adjusted market capitalization greater than the universe average as of most recent year-end. The stocks are equally weighted and generally rebalanced annually.

Hypothetical performance results shown on the preceding pages are backtested and do not represent the performance of any account managed by OSAM, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of each of the previously referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight.

The hypothetical backtested performance does not represent the results of actual trading using client assets nor decision-making during the period and does not and is not intended to indicate the past performance or future performance of any account or investment strategy managed by OSAM. If actual accounts had been managed throughout the period, ongoing research might have resulted in changes to the strategy which might have altered returns. The performance of any account or investment strategy managed by OSAM will differ from the hypothetical backtested performance results for each factor shown herein for a number of reasons, including without limitation the following:

Although OSAM may consider from time to time one or more of the factors noted herein in managing any account, it may not consider all or any of such factors. OSAM may (and will) from time to time consider factors in addition to those noted herein in managing any account.

OSAM may rebalance an account more frequently or less frequently than annually and at times other than presented herein.

OSAM may from time to time manage an account by using non-quantitative, subjective investment management methodologies in conjunction with the application of factors.

The hypothetical backtested performance results assume full investment, whereas an account managed by OSAM may have a positive cash position upon rebalance. Had the hypothetical backtested performance results included a positive cash position, the results would have been different and generally would have been lower.

The hypothetical backtested performance results for each factor do not reflect any transaction costs of buying and selling securities, investment management fees (including without limitation management fees and performance fees), custody and other costs, or taxes – all of which would be incurred by an investor in any account managed by OSAM. If such costs and fees were reflected, the hypothetical backtested performance results would be lower.

The hypothetical performance does not reflect the reinvestment of dividends and distributions therefrom, interest, capital gains and withholding taxes.

Accounts managed by OSAM are subject to additions and redemptions of assets under management, which may positively or negatively affect performance depending generally upon the timing of such events in relation to the market’s direction.

Simulated returns may be dependent on the market and economic conditions that existed during the period. Future market or economic conditions can adversely affect the returns.

Documents

SEPTEMBER 12, 2017 · 2018. 4. 3. · osamresearch.com “In any sector, trade the leading stock — the one showing the strongest trend.” — Jesse Livermore, “The Original Momentum