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September 11September 11thth in Hindsight: in Hindsight: Recovery and ResolveRecovery and Resolve
August 30, 2002August 30, 2002
Toronto StarToronto StarSRCSRCCBCCBC
EKOS PollEKOS Poll
Commissioned by:
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Methodology1. Telephone survey of the general public.
1209 completed interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and over (n=309 in Quebec)Interview period: August 26-28, 2002National results valid within +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 (Quebec: + 5.7%)
The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided
It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error.
2. Results from Public Security Monitor, a weekly tracking of a national random sample of 2400 (300 per week) respondents between October 23rd to December 12th and a monthly tracking between January and July 2002.
All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
A. HighlightsHighlights
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
HighlightsImpacts important but neither as deep nor profound as expected
September 11th definitely registered sizable impacts but these are smaller than expected and have abated as time goes byLast year nearly 80% thought their lives would be “deeply and permanently changed”; Now only 16% note a high personal impact and 33% a high impact on Canada. Canadians lean to the view that the world is profoundly and permanently changed but nearly half believe that things will be pretty much the same
September 11th increased sense our sense of “readiness for future attacks” and a “rebalancing/rethinking of life priorities”
More disturbingly, events have increased negativity to Arabs/MuslimsModest, positive effects were noted on attitudes to the U.S. (feelings have cooled since immediate aftermath)Recognition that civil liberties/human rights have worsened
Trajectory/movementRestored or restoring: Economic outlook; immigration; risks, public prioritiesUndergoing change: Sovereignty (U.S. relations); tolerance; security vs. civil libertiesPermanent or generational: World view (sadder, more vigilant, healthier balance of priorities)
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
B. September 11September 11thth in in HindsightHindsight
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Examining the Impact and ResponsePersonal impact modest
16% say events had high impact on them personally; 54% think the events of September 11th have produced profound changes
Outlook dominated by sadness followed by resolveFew feel fear or angerWomen lean to sadness; men equally likely to choose sadness and resolve
Closer ties to U.S.Sept. 11 produced “warmer” attitude to U.S. which has dissipated but not returned to pre-Sept. levelsShared security perimeter divides Canadians; support decliningStrong support for participation with U.S. in Afghanistan but not Iraq
Government response seen positivelyOverall, good marks for governments in both countries (U.S. better)Balance of civil liberties and security good Directional support for Government of Canada excellent (up 20 points)
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Impact of September 11th
Q: Overall, how much impact over the past year did the events of September 11th and the fallout from that event have on you personally? How about the overall impact on Canada?
4
25
33
16
5
59
58
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
DK/NR Low impact Moderate impact High impact
Personal impact
Impact on Canada
{Base: n=1209}
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Canadian’s OutlookQ: As we approach the anniversary of September 11th, which of the following words best
characterize your overall outlook?
{Base: n=1209}
4
10
13
27
45
0 20 40 60 80 100
DK/NR
Anger/Retribution
Fear/Anxiety
Confidence/Resolve
Sorrow/Sadness
WomenMen
3%6%
7%13%
14%12%
21%34%
55%35%
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
September 11th – A life altering event?Q: Which statement comes closest to your point of view?
2
44
54
0 20 40 60 80 100
The events of September 11th have profoundly changed the world in which we
live in a major and permanent fashion
September 11th was a terrible tragedy but life goes on and the world will pretty much
be the same despite this event
DK/NR
{Base: n = 1209}
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Impact of September 11th
Q: Nearly one year later, please rate the impact of September 11th on the following areas:
3
5
5
4
3
33
19
37
26
29
42
29
48
17
37
16
34
39
33
42
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Personal values/Life priorities
Human rights/Civil liberties*
Preparedness for future attacks*
Feelings towards Muslims/Arabs
Feelings towards the U.S.
DK/NR Negative effect Neither Positive effect
{Base: n=1209; * indicates ½ sample}
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Government Response to September 11th Q: How would you rate the performance of the
Government of the U.S. in dealing with September 11th and its aftermath?
Q: How would you rate the performance of the Government of Canada in dealing with September 11th and its aftermath?
2
26
33
40
0 25 50 75
DK/NR
Poor
Neither
Good
1
25
21
53
0 25 50 75
DK/NR
Poor
Neither
Good
n=614n=1209
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Tracking Satisfaction with Government DirectionQ: All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right
direction or the wrong direction?
37%41% 37%
42% 42%
46%
57%50% 49% 46% 48%
41%
0%
20%
40%
60%
24-Oct
7-Nov
21-Nov
5-Dec
19-Dec
2-Jan
16-Jan
30-Jan
13-Feb
27-Feb
13-Mar
27-Mar
10-Apr
24-Apr
8-May
22-May
5-Jun
19-Jun
3-Jul
17-Jul
31-Jul
14-Aug
28-Aug
Wrong direction Right Direction
{Base: All Canadians}
65%
25%
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
C. Risk, Threats and Risk, Threats and SecuritySecurity
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
New outlook on civil liberties and toleranceSecurity trumps values
Recognition that civil liberties have been negatively affectedMajority trusts government (though 1 in 3 do not) to strike the right balance
Less tolerance in ad hoc, not generalized mannerFeelings toward Arabs/Muslims more negative48% say ethnic profiling is okay; virtually unchanged since Sept. 2001Support for immigration remains strong and returning to pre-September 2001 levels
Low personal risk but more vigilanceSense of personal risk low but one in two think that another terrorist attack in U.S. is very likelyAlmost half of Canadians think that terrorist activities in Canada are a problem
In retrospect, strong support for participation in Afghanistan conflict As conflict evolved, Canadians became less supportive of continued participationNo appetite for participation in Iraq conflict
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Likelihood of Suffering from a Terrorist Attack
10%
23%67%
Low likelihood
Moderate likelihood
High likelihood
Q: How likely do you think it is that you and your family will suffer from a terrorist attack in the next two years?
(n=609)
August 26 to 28
67
23
10
0
25
50
75
Sep-01
Oct-01
Nov-01
Dec-01
Jan-02
Feb-02
Mar-02
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02 Aug-02
Low likelihood Moderate likelihood High likelihood
{Base: All Canadians}
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Likelihood of U.S. Experiencing Another Terrorist AttackQ: How likely do you think it is that the U.S. will experience another similar scaled or worse
terrorist disaster in the coming year?
2 4523 29
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
DK/NR Not very likely (1-3) Somewhat likely Very likely (5-7)
{Base: n = 600}
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Concern Over Terrorist Activities in CanadaQ: Please indicate whether or not you agree or disagree with the following statements: We have a
serious problem with groups supporting terrorist activities in Canada.
4 4924 24
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
DK/NR Disagree Neither Agree
{Base: n = 1209}
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Canada-U.S. Security Perimeter
{Base: All Canadians}
3030
383937
29
454745
39
1518
1415
1212
1414
1415
53514645
5157
403540
44
0 25 50 75 100
Sep. 24 to Sep. 26 (n=1228)
Oct. 23 to Oct. 25 (n=309)
Nov. 19 to Nov. 21 (n=325)
Nov. 26 to Nov. 28 (n=327)
Dec. 3 to Dec. 5 (n=329)
Dec. 10 to Dec. 12 (n=335)
Feb. 25 to Feb. 28 (n=406)
Apr. 22 to Apr. 25 (n=291)
Jul. 2 to Jul. 5 (n=404)
Aug. 26 to Aug. 28 (n=1209)
Disagree Neither Agree
Fall 2001
Q: Please indicate whether or not you agree or disagree with the following statements: I support creating a Canada-U.S. security perimeter, even if it means we must effectively accept American security and immigration policies.
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission {Base: All Canadians}
Striking a Balance Between Security and LibertyQ: Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements: I can trust the
Government of Canada to strike the right balance of security and civil liberties.
2727
242626
41
353337
31
2826
242322
17
2120
1921
4546
504951
41
43454248
0 25 50 75 100
Nov. 5 to 7 (n=303)Nov. 12 to 14 (n=323)
Nov. 19 to 21 (n=325)Nov. 26 to 28 (n=327)
Dec. 3 to 5 (n=329)Dec. 10 to 12 (n=335)
Jan. 28 to 31 (n=407)Mar. 25 to 28 (n=403)
Jun. 4 to 6 (n=405)Aug. 26 to 28 (n=578)
Disagree Neither Agree
Fall 2001
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Racial ProfilingQ: Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements: Given current
circumstances, I think that it is acceptable that airline, police and customs officials give special attention to individuals of Arabic origin.
30
50
48
34 15
20
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Disagree Neither Agree
August 2002
September 2001
n=625
n=1209
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Military Support in RetrospectiveQ: In hindsight, do you support or oppose the Canadian military participation in Afghanistan in the
aftermath of September 11th? Please respond using a 7-point scale where 1 means strongly oppose, 7 means strongly support and 4 means neither oppose not support.
58% 21%
20%
Oppose Neither Support
{Base:n=1209}
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Support for Military Participation During ConflictQ: Do you support or oppose Canadian participation in military retaliation in response to the
terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001?
14%
20%20%
20%18%
19% 22% 20%22%
29%
28%
46%51%51%
57%
55%
59%
66%
61%
65%
58%
62%
57%
0
25
50
75
Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02
Oppose Support
{Base: All Canadians}
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Support for Attacks in Iraq
{Base: All Canadians}
Q: On the same scale, do you support or oppose Canadian participation if the U.S. and its allies decide to attack Iraq?
4
3
3
2
26
44
37
42
44
18
16
19
21
16
52
37
38
35
38
5
0 25 50 75 100
Jan. 28 to Jan. 31(n=407)
Feb. 25 to Feb. 28 (n=406)
Mar. 25 to Mar. 28(n=403)
Apr. 22 to Apr. 25(n=401)
Aug. 26 to Aug. 28(n=1209)
DK Oppose Neither Support
JANUARY: …if the U.S. and its allies decide to attack other countriesthat are allegedly home to terrorists groups?
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Canadian Attitudes Towards ImmigrationQ: In your opinion, do you feel that there are too many, too few or about the right number of
immigrants coming to Canada?
31%
40%
37%
39%39%
34%
27%
35%
30%
38%
32%
34%35%
41%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02
September 11th
% indicating “too many” (5,6,7 on a 7 point scale)
{Base: All Canadians}
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
D. ConclusionsConclusions
Copyright 2002EKOS Research Associates Inc.No Reproduction Without Permission
Bottom LineWorld has changed but not as dramatically as we thought on Sept. 12, 2001
Personal changes are modest; broad societal changes more significantMost significant shifts are in world view and values (which is impressive since these are typically inert and move more glacially)
Key shiftsWe are now sadder, more wary and more vigilant (importantly Canadians think terrorism is domestic problem)A different balancing which leans more to security than human rights has emerged We are selectively less tolerant (a new sense of us/them with Arab/Muslim world)Positively, values and belonging have risen (particularly in U.S.) and we have greater sense of balance/life priorities
Afghanistan military involvement was strongly supported; Iraq is not
Attitudes to government handling are generally positive (both Canada and the U.S.) and support for broad direction of Government of Canada is remarkably positive
Desire for increased defence and security spending neither dampened desire for traditional priorities nor changed the desired role for the state in Canada
For more information:Frank Graves, President
Richard Jenkins. Senior [email protected]
Christian Boucher, Senior [email protected]
t: 613 235 7215