Upload
others
View
4
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Separating fact from fiction
What is the reality for the future of global plastic waste recycling
Helen McGeough Senior Analyst
Mark Victory Senior Editor
Fabrizio Galieacute Global Lead of Polymers Insight
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 2
Webinar logistics
This event is fully streamed You will hear audio via your media player only
This live webinar is being recorded
If you have technical problems please use the QampA function to speak to the online technical support
If you would like to ask a question at any point during the presentation please submit it via the ldquoQampArdquo function at the bottom of your screen
We will answer as many questions as possible at the end of the webinar
Finally the recording and the slides will be available after the live event
wwwiciscom 3
Recycled PET
Recycled PE
The impact of recycled product demand on virgin material producers
Agenda
Recycled PET
Helen McGeough Senior Analyst
wwwiciscom 5
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 6
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 7
Supply demand dynamics
Demand
Demand for recycled feedstocks continues to grow
Driven by legislation in some markets but primarily by industrybrands looking to meet agendas of greater sustainability in resources used carbon foot impact and initiatives to (or be seen to) tackle plastic pollution
Supply
Currently mechanically sourced recycled material is constrained by issues in collectionsorting infrastructures and lack of sufficient reclamation capacity in the near term
Chemical recycling is an area of focus for the industry but will be a long term solution for supply
Virgin markets
Demand for recycled feedstocks will take an increasing share of the market (depending on polymer)
The growth in demand for the recyclable polymers will grow at the expense of the non recyclable polymers and so those markets will potentially see a decline in growth as this shift takes place
wwwiciscom 8
Summary of Europe PET recycling industry 2017
Consumption and collection volume increased by 3 in 2017 no growth in collection beyond market growth
Deposit return schemes (DRS) facilitate greater collectionbull Of the 9 countries with +80 collection rate 7 operate a DRS
Limited increase in rPET output in 2017 reflecting increasing contamination of bale feedstocks
Reclamation capacity underutilised by 300kt in 2017 but expect annual study to show full utilisation in 2018 bull Limited growth in recycling capacity in the short term
PET tray market continues to grow more countries in Europe are expected to expand existing collection to include these as limited activity in 2017
lt2m tonnes
gt3m tonnes
12m tonnes
Consumption Collection rPET output
17m tonnes
Recycling input
wwwiciscom 9
Impact of regulations
Waste Framework Directive
bull Municipal waste reuse target 50 by 2020 55 by 2025 65 by 2035
bull Packaging and Packaging Waste directive 55 plastic packaging recycled by 2030
bull 100 plastic packaging must be recyclable by 2030
European Circular Economy Strategy for Plastics adopted January 2018
China waste import ban ndash effective 1 January 2018
Single Use Plastic Directive (SUP)
bull Plastic beverage bottles with caps 90 collected for recycling by 2027 (77 by 2025)
bull Mandatory recycled content in bottles of 25 by 2025 30 by 2030
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 2
Webinar logistics
This event is fully streamed You will hear audio via your media player only
This live webinar is being recorded
If you have technical problems please use the QampA function to speak to the online technical support
If you would like to ask a question at any point during the presentation please submit it via the ldquoQampArdquo function at the bottom of your screen
We will answer as many questions as possible at the end of the webinar
Finally the recording and the slides will be available after the live event
wwwiciscom 3
Recycled PET
Recycled PE
The impact of recycled product demand on virgin material producers
Agenda
Recycled PET
Helen McGeough Senior Analyst
wwwiciscom 5
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 6
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 7
Supply demand dynamics
Demand
Demand for recycled feedstocks continues to grow
Driven by legislation in some markets but primarily by industrybrands looking to meet agendas of greater sustainability in resources used carbon foot impact and initiatives to (or be seen to) tackle plastic pollution
Supply
Currently mechanically sourced recycled material is constrained by issues in collectionsorting infrastructures and lack of sufficient reclamation capacity in the near term
Chemical recycling is an area of focus for the industry but will be a long term solution for supply
Virgin markets
Demand for recycled feedstocks will take an increasing share of the market (depending on polymer)
The growth in demand for the recyclable polymers will grow at the expense of the non recyclable polymers and so those markets will potentially see a decline in growth as this shift takes place
wwwiciscom 8
Summary of Europe PET recycling industry 2017
Consumption and collection volume increased by 3 in 2017 no growth in collection beyond market growth
Deposit return schemes (DRS) facilitate greater collectionbull Of the 9 countries with +80 collection rate 7 operate a DRS
Limited increase in rPET output in 2017 reflecting increasing contamination of bale feedstocks
Reclamation capacity underutilised by 300kt in 2017 but expect annual study to show full utilisation in 2018 bull Limited growth in recycling capacity in the short term
PET tray market continues to grow more countries in Europe are expected to expand existing collection to include these as limited activity in 2017
lt2m tonnes
gt3m tonnes
12m tonnes
Consumption Collection rPET output
17m tonnes
Recycling input
wwwiciscom 9
Impact of regulations
Waste Framework Directive
bull Municipal waste reuse target 50 by 2020 55 by 2025 65 by 2035
bull Packaging and Packaging Waste directive 55 plastic packaging recycled by 2030
bull 100 plastic packaging must be recyclable by 2030
European Circular Economy Strategy for Plastics adopted January 2018
China waste import ban ndash effective 1 January 2018
Single Use Plastic Directive (SUP)
bull Plastic beverage bottles with caps 90 collected for recycling by 2027 (77 by 2025)
bull Mandatory recycled content in bottles of 25 by 2025 30 by 2030
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 3
Recycled PET
Recycled PE
The impact of recycled product demand on virgin material producers
Agenda
Recycled PET
Helen McGeough Senior Analyst
wwwiciscom 5
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 6
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 7
Supply demand dynamics
Demand
Demand for recycled feedstocks continues to grow
Driven by legislation in some markets but primarily by industrybrands looking to meet agendas of greater sustainability in resources used carbon foot impact and initiatives to (or be seen to) tackle plastic pollution
Supply
Currently mechanically sourced recycled material is constrained by issues in collectionsorting infrastructures and lack of sufficient reclamation capacity in the near term
Chemical recycling is an area of focus for the industry but will be a long term solution for supply
Virgin markets
Demand for recycled feedstocks will take an increasing share of the market (depending on polymer)
The growth in demand for the recyclable polymers will grow at the expense of the non recyclable polymers and so those markets will potentially see a decline in growth as this shift takes place
wwwiciscom 8
Summary of Europe PET recycling industry 2017
Consumption and collection volume increased by 3 in 2017 no growth in collection beyond market growth
Deposit return schemes (DRS) facilitate greater collectionbull Of the 9 countries with +80 collection rate 7 operate a DRS
Limited increase in rPET output in 2017 reflecting increasing contamination of bale feedstocks
Reclamation capacity underutilised by 300kt in 2017 but expect annual study to show full utilisation in 2018 bull Limited growth in recycling capacity in the short term
PET tray market continues to grow more countries in Europe are expected to expand existing collection to include these as limited activity in 2017
lt2m tonnes
gt3m tonnes
12m tonnes
Consumption Collection rPET output
17m tonnes
Recycling input
wwwiciscom 9
Impact of regulations
Waste Framework Directive
bull Municipal waste reuse target 50 by 2020 55 by 2025 65 by 2035
bull Packaging and Packaging Waste directive 55 plastic packaging recycled by 2030
bull 100 plastic packaging must be recyclable by 2030
European Circular Economy Strategy for Plastics adopted January 2018
China waste import ban ndash effective 1 January 2018
Single Use Plastic Directive (SUP)
bull Plastic beverage bottles with caps 90 collected for recycling by 2027 (77 by 2025)
bull Mandatory recycled content in bottles of 25 by 2025 30 by 2030
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Recycled PET
Helen McGeough Senior Analyst
wwwiciscom 5
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 6
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 7
Supply demand dynamics
Demand
Demand for recycled feedstocks continues to grow
Driven by legislation in some markets but primarily by industrybrands looking to meet agendas of greater sustainability in resources used carbon foot impact and initiatives to (or be seen to) tackle plastic pollution
Supply
Currently mechanically sourced recycled material is constrained by issues in collectionsorting infrastructures and lack of sufficient reclamation capacity in the near term
Chemical recycling is an area of focus for the industry but will be a long term solution for supply
Virgin markets
Demand for recycled feedstocks will take an increasing share of the market (depending on polymer)
The growth in demand for the recyclable polymers will grow at the expense of the non recyclable polymers and so those markets will potentially see a decline in growth as this shift takes place
wwwiciscom 8
Summary of Europe PET recycling industry 2017
Consumption and collection volume increased by 3 in 2017 no growth in collection beyond market growth
Deposit return schemes (DRS) facilitate greater collectionbull Of the 9 countries with +80 collection rate 7 operate a DRS
Limited increase in rPET output in 2017 reflecting increasing contamination of bale feedstocks
Reclamation capacity underutilised by 300kt in 2017 but expect annual study to show full utilisation in 2018 bull Limited growth in recycling capacity in the short term
PET tray market continues to grow more countries in Europe are expected to expand existing collection to include these as limited activity in 2017
lt2m tonnes
gt3m tonnes
12m tonnes
Consumption Collection rPET output
17m tonnes
Recycling input
wwwiciscom 9
Impact of regulations
Waste Framework Directive
bull Municipal waste reuse target 50 by 2020 55 by 2025 65 by 2035
bull Packaging and Packaging Waste directive 55 plastic packaging recycled by 2030
bull 100 plastic packaging must be recyclable by 2030
European Circular Economy Strategy for Plastics adopted January 2018
China waste import ban ndash effective 1 January 2018
Single Use Plastic Directive (SUP)
bull Plastic beverage bottles with caps 90 collected for recycling by 2027 (77 by 2025)
bull Mandatory recycled content in bottles of 25 by 2025 30 by 2030
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 5
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 6
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 7
Supply demand dynamics
Demand
Demand for recycled feedstocks continues to grow
Driven by legislation in some markets but primarily by industrybrands looking to meet agendas of greater sustainability in resources used carbon foot impact and initiatives to (or be seen to) tackle plastic pollution
Supply
Currently mechanically sourced recycled material is constrained by issues in collectionsorting infrastructures and lack of sufficient reclamation capacity in the near term
Chemical recycling is an area of focus for the industry but will be a long term solution for supply
Virgin markets
Demand for recycled feedstocks will take an increasing share of the market (depending on polymer)
The growth in demand for the recyclable polymers will grow at the expense of the non recyclable polymers and so those markets will potentially see a decline in growth as this shift takes place
wwwiciscom 8
Summary of Europe PET recycling industry 2017
Consumption and collection volume increased by 3 in 2017 no growth in collection beyond market growth
Deposit return schemes (DRS) facilitate greater collectionbull Of the 9 countries with +80 collection rate 7 operate a DRS
Limited increase in rPET output in 2017 reflecting increasing contamination of bale feedstocks
Reclamation capacity underutilised by 300kt in 2017 but expect annual study to show full utilisation in 2018 bull Limited growth in recycling capacity in the short term
PET tray market continues to grow more countries in Europe are expected to expand existing collection to include these as limited activity in 2017
lt2m tonnes
gt3m tonnes
12m tonnes
Consumption Collection rPET output
17m tonnes
Recycling input
wwwiciscom 9
Impact of regulations
Waste Framework Directive
bull Municipal waste reuse target 50 by 2020 55 by 2025 65 by 2035
bull Packaging and Packaging Waste directive 55 plastic packaging recycled by 2030
bull 100 plastic packaging must be recyclable by 2030
European Circular Economy Strategy for Plastics adopted January 2018
China waste import ban ndash effective 1 January 2018
Single Use Plastic Directive (SUP)
bull Plastic beverage bottles with caps 90 collected for recycling by 2027 (77 by 2025)
bull Mandatory recycled content in bottles of 25 by 2025 30 by 2030
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 6
Current market situation - drivers
SUSTAINABILITYREGULATION
ECONOMICS
wwwiciscom 7
Supply demand dynamics
Demand
Demand for recycled feedstocks continues to grow
Driven by legislation in some markets but primarily by industrybrands looking to meet agendas of greater sustainability in resources used carbon foot impact and initiatives to (or be seen to) tackle plastic pollution
Supply
Currently mechanically sourced recycled material is constrained by issues in collectionsorting infrastructures and lack of sufficient reclamation capacity in the near term
Chemical recycling is an area of focus for the industry but will be a long term solution for supply
Virgin markets
Demand for recycled feedstocks will take an increasing share of the market (depending on polymer)
The growth in demand for the recyclable polymers will grow at the expense of the non recyclable polymers and so those markets will potentially see a decline in growth as this shift takes place
wwwiciscom 8
Summary of Europe PET recycling industry 2017
Consumption and collection volume increased by 3 in 2017 no growth in collection beyond market growth
Deposit return schemes (DRS) facilitate greater collectionbull Of the 9 countries with +80 collection rate 7 operate a DRS
Limited increase in rPET output in 2017 reflecting increasing contamination of bale feedstocks
Reclamation capacity underutilised by 300kt in 2017 but expect annual study to show full utilisation in 2018 bull Limited growth in recycling capacity in the short term
PET tray market continues to grow more countries in Europe are expected to expand existing collection to include these as limited activity in 2017
lt2m tonnes
gt3m tonnes
12m tonnes
Consumption Collection rPET output
17m tonnes
Recycling input
wwwiciscom 9
Impact of regulations
Waste Framework Directive
bull Municipal waste reuse target 50 by 2020 55 by 2025 65 by 2035
bull Packaging and Packaging Waste directive 55 plastic packaging recycled by 2030
bull 100 plastic packaging must be recyclable by 2030
European Circular Economy Strategy for Plastics adopted January 2018
China waste import ban ndash effective 1 January 2018
Single Use Plastic Directive (SUP)
bull Plastic beverage bottles with caps 90 collected for recycling by 2027 (77 by 2025)
bull Mandatory recycled content in bottles of 25 by 2025 30 by 2030
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 7
Supply demand dynamics
Demand
Demand for recycled feedstocks continues to grow
Driven by legislation in some markets but primarily by industrybrands looking to meet agendas of greater sustainability in resources used carbon foot impact and initiatives to (or be seen to) tackle plastic pollution
Supply
Currently mechanically sourced recycled material is constrained by issues in collectionsorting infrastructures and lack of sufficient reclamation capacity in the near term
Chemical recycling is an area of focus for the industry but will be a long term solution for supply
Virgin markets
Demand for recycled feedstocks will take an increasing share of the market (depending on polymer)
The growth in demand for the recyclable polymers will grow at the expense of the non recyclable polymers and so those markets will potentially see a decline in growth as this shift takes place
wwwiciscom 8
Summary of Europe PET recycling industry 2017
Consumption and collection volume increased by 3 in 2017 no growth in collection beyond market growth
Deposit return schemes (DRS) facilitate greater collectionbull Of the 9 countries with +80 collection rate 7 operate a DRS
Limited increase in rPET output in 2017 reflecting increasing contamination of bale feedstocks
Reclamation capacity underutilised by 300kt in 2017 but expect annual study to show full utilisation in 2018 bull Limited growth in recycling capacity in the short term
PET tray market continues to grow more countries in Europe are expected to expand existing collection to include these as limited activity in 2017
lt2m tonnes
gt3m tonnes
12m tonnes
Consumption Collection rPET output
17m tonnes
Recycling input
wwwiciscom 9
Impact of regulations
Waste Framework Directive
bull Municipal waste reuse target 50 by 2020 55 by 2025 65 by 2035
bull Packaging and Packaging Waste directive 55 plastic packaging recycled by 2030
bull 100 plastic packaging must be recyclable by 2030
European Circular Economy Strategy for Plastics adopted January 2018
China waste import ban ndash effective 1 January 2018
Single Use Plastic Directive (SUP)
bull Plastic beverage bottles with caps 90 collected for recycling by 2027 (77 by 2025)
bull Mandatory recycled content in bottles of 25 by 2025 30 by 2030
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 8
Summary of Europe PET recycling industry 2017
Consumption and collection volume increased by 3 in 2017 no growth in collection beyond market growth
Deposit return schemes (DRS) facilitate greater collectionbull Of the 9 countries with +80 collection rate 7 operate a DRS
Limited increase in rPET output in 2017 reflecting increasing contamination of bale feedstocks
Reclamation capacity underutilised by 300kt in 2017 but expect annual study to show full utilisation in 2018 bull Limited growth in recycling capacity in the short term
PET tray market continues to grow more countries in Europe are expected to expand existing collection to include these as limited activity in 2017
lt2m tonnes
gt3m tonnes
12m tonnes
Consumption Collection rPET output
17m tonnes
Recycling input
wwwiciscom 9
Impact of regulations
Waste Framework Directive
bull Municipal waste reuse target 50 by 2020 55 by 2025 65 by 2035
bull Packaging and Packaging Waste directive 55 plastic packaging recycled by 2030
bull 100 plastic packaging must be recyclable by 2030
European Circular Economy Strategy for Plastics adopted January 2018
China waste import ban ndash effective 1 January 2018
Single Use Plastic Directive (SUP)
bull Plastic beverage bottles with caps 90 collected for recycling by 2027 (77 by 2025)
bull Mandatory recycled content in bottles of 25 by 2025 30 by 2030
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 9
Impact of regulations
Waste Framework Directive
bull Municipal waste reuse target 50 by 2020 55 by 2025 65 by 2035
bull Packaging and Packaging Waste directive 55 plastic packaging recycled by 2030
bull 100 plastic packaging must be recyclable by 2030
European Circular Economy Strategy for Plastics adopted January 2018
China waste import ban ndash effective 1 January 2018
Single Use Plastic Directive (SUP)
bull Plastic beverage bottles with caps 90 collected for recycling by 2027 (77 by 2025)
bull Mandatory recycled content in bottles of 25 by 2025 30 by 2030
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 10
Brand pledges
Brand pledges from major beverage companies aiming for 50 recycled content
New players enter the food grade RPET market brands and retailers
Recyclable pledges ndash potential substitution
Supply constrained
bull High quality colourless bales
bull Food grade RPET capacity
Intense competition for RPET supply
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 11
Packaging dominates RPET end use in West Europe
Sheet40
Blow-moulding29
Fibre16
Strapping10
Other5
2017
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 12
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
06
-Jan
-20
17
20
-Jan
-20
17
03
-Fe
b-2
01
7
17
-Fe
b-2
01
7
03
-Mar
-20
17
17
-Mar
-20
17
31
-Mar
-20
17
14
-Ap
r-2
01
7
28
-Ap
r-2
01
7
12
-May
-20
17
26
-May
-20
17
09
-Ju
n-2
01
7
23
-Ju
n-2
01
7
07
-Ju
l-2
01
7
21
-Ju
l-2
01
7
04
-Au
g-2
01
7
18
-Au
g-2
01
7
01
-Se
p-2
01
7
15
-Se
p-2
01
7
29
-Se
p-2
01
7
13
-Oct
-20
17
27
-Oct
-20
17
10
-No
v-2
01
7
24
-No
v-2
01
7
08
-Dec
-20
17
22
-Dec
-20
17
12
-Jan
-20
18
26
-Jan
-20
18
09
-Fe
b-2
01
8
23
-Fe
b-2
01
8
09
-Mar
-20
18
23
-Mar
-20
18
06
-Ap
r-2
01
8
20
-Ap
r-2
01
8
04
-May
-20
18
18
-May
-20
18
01
-Ju
n-2
01
8
15
-Ju
n-2
01
8
29
-Ju
n-2
01
8
13
-Ju
l-2
01
8
27
-Ju
l-2
01
8
10
-Au
g-2
01
8
24
-Au
g-2
01
8
07
-Se
p-2
01
8
21
-Se
p-2
01
8
05
-Oct
-20
18
19
-Oct
-20
18
02
-No
v-2
01
8
16
-No
v-2
01
8
30
-No
v-2
01
8
14
-Dec
-20
18
04
-Jan
-20
19
18
-Jan
-20
19
01
-Fe
b-2
01
9
15
-Fe
b-2
01
9
01
-Mar
-20
19
15
-Mar
-20
19
29
-Mar
-20
19
12
-Ap
r-2
01
9
26
-Ap
r-2
01
9
EUR
t
RPET and VPET prices 2017-2019
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Colourless Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
PET Bottles Mixed Coloured Post-Consumer FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Mixed Coloured FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
The rise of RPET prices
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 13
Delta between RPET flake and virgin PET narrowing
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o R
PET
fla
ke
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and colourless RPET flake
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Flake Hot-Washed Colourless FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Flake Colourless
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 14
Attitudes to prices for food grade RPET have shifted
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
09
-Jan
-20
15
06
-Fe
b-2
01
5
06
-Mar
-20
15
03
-Ap
r-2
01
5
01
-May
-20
15
29
-May
-20
15
26
-Ju
n-2
01
5
24
-Ju
l-2
01
5
21
-Au
g-2
01
5
18
-Se
p-2
01
5
16
-Oct
-20
15
13
-No
v-2
01
5
11
-Dec
-20
15
15
-Jan
-20
16
12
-Fe
b-2
01
6
11
-Mar
-20
16
08
-Ap
r-2
01
6
06
-May
-20
16
03
-Ju
n-2
01
6
01
-Ju
l-2
01
6
29
-Ju
l-2
01
6
26
-Au
g-2
01
6
23
-Se
p-2
01
6
21
-Oct
-20
16
18
-No
v-2
01
6
16
-Dec
-20
16
27
-Jan
-20
17
24
-Fe
b-2
01
7
24
-Mar
-20
17
21
-Ap
r-2
01
7
19
-May
-20
17
16
-Ju
n-2
01
7
14
-Ju
l-2
01
7
11
-Au
g-2
01
7
08
-Se
p-2
01
7
06
-Oct
-20
17
03
-No
v-2
01
7
01
-Dec
-20
17
05
-Jan
-20
18
02
-Fe
b-2
01
8
02
-Mar
-20
18
30
-Mar
-20
18
27
-Ap
r-2
01
8
25
-May
-20
18
22
-Ju
n-2
01
8
20
-Ju
l-2
01
8
17
-Au
g-2
01
8
14
-Se
p-2
01
8
12
-Oct
-20
18
09
-No
v-2
01
8
07
-Dec
-20
18
11
-Jan
-20
19
08
-Fe
b-2
01
9
08
-Mar
-20
19
05
-Ap
r-2
01
9
03
-May
-20
19
Pri
ce r
ela
tio
nsh
ip v
irgi
n t
o F
G R
PET
EUR
t
Price relationship - VPET and FG RPET
PET Bottle Grade FD Europe Assessment Domestic Current Month Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
RPET Pellets Food Grade FD NWE Assessment Domestic and Export Spot 14 Days Full Market Range (Mid) EURtonne
Price relationship - VPET and RPET Food Grade Pellet
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 15
Europe PET collection volume future projection
Growth in PET recovery is behind the growth in demand for RPET product supply
2017 2018 2019 2020
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Th
ou
sand
to
nn
es
Average +29
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Copyright copy 2019 ICIS ndash Private amp Confidential wwwiciscom 16
Growth rates to achieve targetshellip
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
kt
Targets for collection and recycled content
collection recycled content - 25 recycled content - 30 recycled content - 50
7 pa
6 pa
175 pa
17 pa
65 pa
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Recycled Polyethylene (R-PE)
Mark Victory Senior Editor Recycling
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 18
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Production methods
Multiple sources of input material
bull Post-consumer
bull Post-industrial
bull Production waste
Multiple production methods
bull Hot-washed
bull Cold-washed
bull Dry-processed
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 19
Structure of the R-PE Market - Illiquidity
Market is illiquid and volume of feedstock opaque
Unlike R-PET R-PE flake market is small with pellets dominating
Pellets sold based on colour
Difference in process types means wide range of qualities and prices particularly for R-LDPE
Post-consumer waste and hot-washed pellets are markets with most transparency
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 20
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash End-uses
Major end-uses include
bull Packaging
bull Outdoor furniture
bull Pipes and construction
High wastage rates due to PP contamination
Most applications price-driven
Sustainability becoming increasingly important
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 21
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Food Grade Shortages
UK is only current source of food-grade R-PE and only for R-HDPE
Post-consumer milk-bottle collection limited to 110000 tonnesyear
EU legislation restricting growth opportunities
Lack of food-grade material encouraging inclusion of white material to meet demand
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 22
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Packaging Recovery Notes (PRNs)Packaging Export Recovery Notes (PERNs)
Specific to UK market
Current value at pound185tonne
Encouraging export of mixed plastic waste and shortening post-consumer HDPE bale supply
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 23
Structure of the R-PE Market ndash Asia Import Bans and Basel Amendment
China import ban leads to higher contaminants
Increased bale supply especially for LDPE
Other countries introducing bans
10 May amendment to Basel legislation likely to lengthen lead times increase costs of export
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 24
Current Market ndash LDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
Ban on waste exports to China = Europe structural oversupply
Lower quality material being sold at a loss
In most countries negative values capped by gate fees
In Germany ban on plastic waste incineration removes price cap
Other countries expected to follow
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 25
Current Market ndash HDPE Post-consumer Bale Supply
PRN values pushing prices of UK bales higher
PERNs reducing UK bale availability
Virgin HDPE values remain key bale price-driver
Sustainability targets reducing substitution ability of packaging sector
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 26
Current Market ndash R-HDPE Pellets
Cosmetic and pharmaceutical and domestic goods packaging demand strong on sustainability
Lack of food-grade driving substitution to other pellet grades and other plastics
Demand in non-packaging applications remains weak because of near parity with virgin prices
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 27
Current Market ndash R-LDPE Pellets
Packaging applications limited mostly cost-driven
Weakening virgin prices since Q4 added downward pressure in Q1
China ban does not cover pellets
Exports to Asia remain high
Strong demand from India ahead of ban
Rising demand from secondary sheet applications
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 28
Market Evolution
Legislative framework likely to tighten
Consumer demand increasingly centred on sustainability
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic markets to pursue bespoke solutions
Pharmaceutical and cosmetic market share to increase
R-PET example suggests creation of 2-tier market
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 29
R-PE Market ndash Next Steps
Adapt to new regulatory challenges
Formalisation and standardisation of the industry
Improvements in collection and sorting
Increased transparency
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 30
The New ICIS R-PE report
Covers post-consumer HDPE and LDPE bales
R-HDPE and R-LDPE pellets
Food-grade R-HDPE pellets
Prices and supply and demand dynamics
Launching late May
Contact Mark Victory markvictoryiciscom to receive the latest prototype
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Impact of plastic recycling on virgin materials producers
Fabrizio Galiegrave Global Lead for Polymers Insight
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 32
The circular economy
Definition
The circular economy ldquoentails gradually decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources and designing waste out of the systemrdquo
(Ellen MacArthur Foundation)
End waste
of final products making them back in the
process as resources
Start from renewables
which means de-coupling from fossil fuels
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 33
The industry has to respond to consumers and legislations
DEMAND TO PRESERVE
THE ENVIRONMENT
Petrochemical producers
Brands
Distributors
Industrial users
PROMOTE COLLECTION
IMPOSE LIMITS
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 34
Implications on the polymers business at different levels
Substitution of virgin resin
Bans and limits to applications
ldquoDo more with lessrdquo
Metallocenes
Inter-polymer substitution
Multi-layer vs Mono-layer
Raw Material
Logistics including waste transfer
RampD
VOLUMES
PRODUCTS
COSTS
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 35
Short-term bans to waste transfer change trade patterns
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
Chinese ban prompted import (and production) of virgin material
Waste material redirected to SEA (Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia India others) with also Chinese factories relocating
Some routes remain unclear
Too huge volumes to be managed ports congestion insufficient logistics and processing capability
Landfill and energy recovery prevailing
Most countries introducing bans
More waste to be managed in country of origin
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 36
Long-term recycling will impact volumes
Growing share from larger recycling volumes and reduced consumption growth
Mid-term some reduction in specific applications especially single-use products and packaging
But EU 2021 ban can only interest ~5 of EPS regional consumption lower single-digits for PP and HDPE
Bans to plastic bags are more ldquoshockingrdquo eg Turkey HDPE shopping bags Jan 2019
Long-term shares growing faster
Base case scenario is evolutionary not revolutionary
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Q1 2017 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2018 Q2 Q3 Q4
391590 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Plastics Nesoi
391510 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Ethylene
391530 Waste Parings And Scrap Of Polymers Of Vinyl Chloride
Effects of waste import ban in China
China Quarterly Import Volumes 2017-18 (Kt)
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
PE recycle PP recycle
Forecast polyolefins recycling growth
share of production ex-recycle on world demand
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 37
Not a ldquopure pricerdquo matter
Consumers ProducersLegislation
bull Use less packaging
(except online shop)
bull Requires alternatives
bull Re-use
bull Regional differences
(not necessarily
related to wealth)
bull Regulates waste
management
bull Regulates applications
scope
bull Alters cost-structure
bull Support logistics
bull Adapt product
portfolios
bull New solutions (tech
And business models)
bull Know-how acquisitions
bull Consider waste as a
feedstock
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Thank you
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 39
Contact us
Helen McGeough
Senior Analyst Plastics Recycling
helenmcgeoughiciscom
+44 7816 299320
Daria Grossi
Analyst Plastics Recycling
dariagrossiiciscom
+39 0331 1425312
Mark Victory
Senior Editor
markvictoryiciscom
+44 20 8652 8703
Fabrizio Galieacute
Global Lead of Polymers Insight
fabriziogalieiciscom
+39 0331 142 53 23
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 40
R-PETAnnual Data
NEW
Spend less time filtering through information with
price transparency analytics tools for the
European market
Post-consumer collection volume by country
Recycling capacity amp yields by countrySign up to receive updates
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
Circularity for Polymers
The ICIS Recycling Conference
5 November 2019 Berlin Germany
Interactive agenda
Collaborative Roundtable session
Innovation Showcase
FMCG Panel
Open Mic
Key presentations
European Commission Plastics Strategy
Recycled polyolefins and r-PET market analysis
Exclusive networking opportunities
Full value chain representation
Key reasons to attendSuper Early Bird now available
Register now and save euro200 off the standard fee
Use promocode IRC19WEBINAR to unlock this offer
Limited time offer
Check out the website for more details
wwwiciseventscomrecycling
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers
wwwiciscom 42
Questions amp Answers