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SEOUL INTERNATIONAL MARITIME AND SHIPBUILDING CONFERENCE (SIMS)
4 November 2008
Peter M. Swift
Managing Director, INTERTANKO
Issues and Challenges for Tanker Shipping
Energy and oil demandOil supply
Tanker supply
Industry Performance
Global Financial Crisis
Principal Issues and Challenges for Tanker Shipping
Primary energy consumption by fuel
0
2
4
6
8
10
1219
7019
7119
7219
7319
7419
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
07
Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil
Billion tonnes oil equivalents
World oil demand
mbd
65
70
75
80
85
90
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Oil demand by area
mbd
Source: BP/IEASource: BP/IEA
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
4019
65
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Es0
9
Europe US
China Japan
ROW*
*includes Former Soviet Union
Oil consumption per capita
Litres per year
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,700
3,000
USA Japan UK Europe Russia China
World’s largest net oil exporters
mbd
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.01999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
UK
Nigeria
Canada
Mexico
UAE
Venezuela
Norway
Iran
Kuwait
FSU
Saudi Arabia
The importance of oil tanker transportation
World Oil Consumption 4.0 billion ts per year
Transported by sea 2.6 billion ts per year
> 60% transported by sea
Tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt
m dwt
Source: INTERANKO/ClarksonSource: INTERANKO/Clarkson
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Combos
Above 200,000
120-200,000
80-120,000
60-80,000
10-60,000
The projection 2008-2011 is based on current f leet, orderbook, phase out and conversion assumptions
Projection
Tanker contracting by segment
US$ bn
Source: Clarkson Shipyard MonitorSource: Clarkson Shipyard Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
Au
g-0
8
Handy
Chem/Spec)
Panamaxes
Aframaxes
Suezmaxes
VLCCs
1993 and earlier sizes except VLCCs were defined differently
Investment in new tankers
• More than USD 550 billion invested since 2000 with the result that >85% of tanker fleet double hulled in 2010
622
5159
67 68 73 76 79 82 85
9478
4941
33 32 27 24 21 18 15
0
20
40
60
80
100
19
91
19
97
En
d 0
2
En
d 0
3
En
d 0
4
En
d 0
5
En
d 0
6
En
d 0
7
En
d 0
8
En
d 0
9
En
d 1
0
SH/DB/DS
DH
% dwt share
Assumes phase out according to regulations (rounded upwards), max 25 y.o./2015 after 2010.
Tanker incidents and accidental pollution
Number
Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various
‘‘000 tonnes pollution000 tonnes pollution
0
210
420
630
840
105078
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
0
120
240
360
480
600
Misc
Grounded
War
Hull & Machinery
Fire/Expl
Coll/Contact
Oil pollution
The figures for 2008 is a projection based on data from 10 months
Tanker incidents 2007 by type
Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various
1%
33%
14%
15%
12%
24%
Collision/contact
Grounding
Fire/Explosion
Hull & machinery
Misc/unknown
Hostilties
Collision Grounding
Hull & Machinery 96 of which 50
engine related
Misc.
Fire & Expl.
326 reported tanker incidents 2007
Tanker incidents 2008 by type
Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various
Fire / Explosion 7%
Hostilties
Grounding 17%
Collision / contact 29%
Misc / unknown
14%
Collision/contact
Grounding
Fire/Explosion
Hull & machinery
Misc/unknown
Hostilties
235 reported tanker incidents
2008(10 months)
Hull & Machinery (28%), 65 of which
40 engine related
Global Financial CrisisGlobal Financial Crisis Fleet Development & Seaborne Oil TradeFleet Development & Seaborne Oil Trade
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Projected
Actual
Oil tanker fleet
m dwt
Source: INTERTANKO, Fearnleys
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06P0
8P1
0
Oil products
Crude oil
???
Source: INTERTANKO, Fearnleys
Seaborne oil trade
bn tonne milesbn tonne miles
Global Financial CrisisGlobal Financial Crisis Tanker Fleet RemovalsTanker Fleet Removals
Source: INTERTANKOSource: INTERTANKO
m dwtm dwt
ConversionsConversions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Small 2Small 2 0 0 13 13 23 23Aframax 0Aframax 0 4 4 19 19 14 14Suezmax 0Suezmax 0 6 6 13 13 9 9VLCC 2VLCC 2 9 9 15 15 30 30
0
6
12
18
24
3019
6919
7019
7119
7219
7319
7419
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
08
Conversions
Scrapping
?
?
Credit crunch – liquidity; financing; exposures; covenants & more….
• Oil prices ?• Steel prices ?• Newbuild / scrap prices ?• Economic slowdown (or meltdown !) ?• Green agenda slowdown ?• Markets ?• Other ?
Global Financial CrisisGlobal Financial Crisis
Key challenges for the Tanker industry
• Maintaining an international framework of consistent, high standards- global governance for a global industry
• Delivering best environmental performance- meeting society’s expectations
• Ensuring availability of good people (and quality ships)- a quality as well as a quantity issue
Maintaining an international framework of consistent, high standards
Support for:
• IMO and international rather than unilateral local, national or regional legislation
• Ratification of IMO (and ILO) Conventions• IMO Member State Audit scheme plus transparency in
findings• Greater harmonisation and uniformity in procedures
across Port State Control regimes, and better targeting procedures
• Quality Coastal State initiative (to live up to their obligations, - ensuring fair and consistent processes)
• Development of Common Structural Rules for Tankers & Bulkers
• Uniformity in classification societies of requirements, standards and interpretations, survey procedures, etc.
• Greater uniformity in chartering practices and standards
Delivering best environmental performance
• Anti-fouling systems • Ballast Water management • Biofouling• Ship Recycling• Port Reception Facilities (adequacy & affordability) • Waste management (onboard and ashore)
• Marine Noise pollution• Whale strikes • Spill Prevention and Response Planning• VOC emission reductions• Exhaust Gas emissions (Annex VI & its revisions)
• Green House Gas emissions
Ensuring availability of good people - recruitment, training and retention
Initiatives covering:
• Raising awareness of the industry, (www.maritimefoundation.com)
• Attracting entrants to the Maritime Professions (IMO Campaign)
• Provision of Cadet berths and training facilities on ALL new ships
• Maximum utilisation of cadet berths on existing ships• Development of Tanker Officer Training Standards
(TOTS), covering proficiency and experience, as the industry standard
• Establishment of Seafarer Focus Groups to provide feedback of experiences
Ensuring availability of good people - welfare and well-being
Initiatives covering: • Unjustified criminalisation, including challenges through
the courts• Support for IMO-ILO guidelines on Fair Treatment of
Seafarers (in event of Maritime Accident)• Improved conditions for shore access when security
constraints active • Reduction in number of inspections• Lessening the technical and operational burden of
equipment, systems and associated paperwork• Guidelines for safe handling of cargoes and fuels, tank
cleaning and entry• Guidelines on implementing ILO Convention on “work
and rest hours” • Higher standards of accommodation as industry “norms”
Hebei Spirit – and the IMO/ILO Fair Treatment Guidelines
Captain Jasprit Chawla & Chief Officer Syam Chetan
of Hong Kong-based tanker Hebei Spirit,
with Roberto Giorgi president of V. Ships
PIRACY – PIRACY – Somali coast / Gulf of AdenSomali coast / Gulf of Aden
Message from International Shipping to the IMO, governments and the UN:
1. Commit sufficient numbers of warships, military aircraft and surveillance assets to the region and coordinate their command and control under the auspices of a United Nations mandate,
2. Enhance the existing UN Security Council resolutions 1816 and 1838 with a further resolution with more explicit text on action required against the criminal gangs and with a timeframe adequate to reaching a final solution,
3. Establish a legal jurisdiction to bring arrested criminals to justice and subsequent punishment. In this regard States are particularly urged to review and amend national legislation to include such due process, noting their obligations under the Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation, 1988 (SUA Convention).
Thank you 감사합니다
For more information, please visit:www.intertanko.com
www.poseidonchallenge.comwww.shippingfacts.com
www.maritimefoundation.com
Encouraging Ratification by States Encouraging Ratification by States of International Conventionsof International Conventions
IMO Conventions including:• International Convention on the Control of Harmful Anti-fouling
Systems on Ships (AFS), 2001 (*)• International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships’
Ballast Water and Sediments, 2004 • Annex VI: Prevention of Air Pollution from Ships, 1996: International
Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973, as modified by the Protocol of 1978 relating thereto (MARPOL 73/78) (*)
• !996 Protocol to Convention on Limitation of Liability for Maritime Claims (LLMC), 1976
(*)Even though Entered/Entering into Force
Encouraging Ratification by States Encouraging Ratification by States of International Conventionsof International Conventions
Continued:
IMO Conventions including:• International Convention on Civil Liability for Oil Pollution Damage
(CLC), 1969• International Convention on the Establishment of an International Fund
for Compensation for Oil Pollution Damage (FUND), 1971• International Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in
Connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances by Sea (HNS), 1996
• International Convention on Civil Liability for Bunker Oil Pollution Damage, 2001 (*)
ILO Convention(s):• Seafarers' Identity Documents Convention (Revised), (C185), 2003• Maritime Labour Convention, (MLC) 2006
(*) Even though Entered/Entering into Force