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Sensitivity of Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin to WarmingSensitivity of Water Supply in the Colorado River Basin to Warming
Greg McCabeU.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado
Dave WolockU.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas
Greg McCabeU.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado
Dave WolockU.S. Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas
The Colorado River Basin
The Colorado River Basin
Source: D. Alles, 2007Source: D. Alles, 2007
Streamgage at Lee’s FerryStreamgage at Lee’s Ferry
Source: Steve Gray, University of WyomingSource: Steve Gray, University of Wyoming
The 20th century included the wettest and 3rd wettest periods in the Upper Colorado River Basin during the past 500 yearsThe 20th century included the wettest and 3rd wettest periods in the Upper Colorado River Basin during the past 500 years
12 3
tree ring reconstruction for Upper Colorado River basin
20th centuryW
ater
Yea
r F
low
(m
illi
on
acr
e fe
et)
Increasing water demand is stressing the Colorado River water supply, even during one of the wettest centuries.Increasing water demand is stressing the Colorado River water supply, even during one of the wettest centuries.
Source: Glen Canyon Institute, March 2005Source: Glen Canyon Institute, March 2005
Colorado River water supply minus consumptive use and losses,
1906-2004
Mill
ion
Acr
e F
eet
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
20
Calendar Year1915 1930 1975 19901945 1960
photos by John Dohrenwend, Southwest Satellite Imagingphotos by John Dohrenwend, Southwest Satellite Imaging
June 29, 2002June 29, 2002
December 23, 2003December 23, 2003
Are recent dry conditions in the UCRB anomalous, or more reflective of conditions experienced during previous centuries?Are recent dry conditions in the UCRB anomalous, or more reflective of conditions experienced during previous centuries?
Lake PowellLake Powell
Potential natural shift
to drier conditions
Potential natural shift
to drier conditions
++Increased
water demand
Increased water
demand
++Continued warming
Continued warming
Increased risk of water
shortages
Increased risk of water
shortages}}Issues and concerns for the Colorado River BasinIssues and concerns for the Colorado River Basin
Question: What is the sensitivity of water supply to
increases in temperature?
Question: What is the sensitivity of water supply to
increases in temperature?
Potential natural shift
to drier conditions
Potential natural shift
to drier conditions
++Increased
water demand
Increased water
demand
++Continued warming
Continued warming
Increased risk of water
shortages
Increased risk of water
shortages}}Issues and concerns for the Colorado River BasinIssues and concerns for the Colorado River Basin
Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periodsWater-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periodsWater-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods
Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periodsWater-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periodsWater-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periodsWater-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Water-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periodsWater-year flow for the Upper Colorado River Basin for 100-year periods
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Risk of Failure (percent of years)
Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligations of the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period
range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Risk of Failure (percent of years)
20th century
range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998
Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligations of the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Risk of Failure (percent of years)
20th century
20th century,
T+0.86oC
range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998
Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligations of the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Risk of Failure (percent of years)
20th century
20th century,
T+0.86oC
20th century, T+2oC
range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998
Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligations of the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Risk of Failure (percent of years)
20th century
20th century,
T+0.86oC
20th century, T+2oC
driest century from tree ring record, T+0.86oC
range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998
Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligations of the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Risk of Failure (percent of years)
20th century
20th century,
T+0.86oC
20th century, T+2oC
driest century from tree ring record, T+2oC
driest century from tree ring record, T+0.86oC
range of estimated risk of failure for all 100-year periods, 1490-1998
Risk of failing to meet the delivery obligations of the Colorado Compact during a 100-year period
McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007McCabe and Wolock, Geophysical Research Letters, 2007
Is a drier West on the horizon?Is a drier West on the horizon?