Sensitivity of Global PM2.5-related Mortality to Precursor Emissions

Colin Lee PhD Candidate, Dalhousie University

Randall V. Martin, Daven K. Henze, Aaron van Donkelaar, Richard T. Burnett, Aaron Cohen, Haidong Wang, Raphael

Lozano, Christopher J.L. Murray, Michael Brauer

PM2.5 and Mortality �  Long-known relationship between fine PM and

health effects; E.G. Dockery et al., 1993 �  Many limitations in knowledge

�  GBD project estimated cause-specific mortality for 235 causes globally �  Rigorous constraints and uncertainty assessment

Global Mortality

GBD global estimate of premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 in 2010:

M =

countriesX

i

causesX

j

Popi ·Mi,j ·✓1� 1

RRi,j

◆(1)

1

M = total global mortality Mi,j = baseline mortality for cause j in country i

Popi = population of country i RRi,j = f(PM2.5); relative risk for cause j in country i

Global Mortality

GBD global estimate of premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 in 2010:

3.2 million people

M =

countriesX

i

causesX

j

Popi ·Mi,j ·✓1� 1

RRi,j

◆(1)

1

M = total global mortality Mi,j = baseline mortality for cause j in country i

Popi = population of country i RRi,j = f(PM2.5); relative risk for cause j in country i

What can we do about it?

PM2.5 Primary Chem Precursors

What can we do about it?

PM2.5 Primary Chem Precursors

SO2

NOx

NH3

How we answered that

Emis Chem Trans Concs HIF

∂ ∂Emis

Chem Trans ∂ ∂Concs

MGEOS-Chem

GEOS-Chem Adjoint

How we answered that

Emis Chem Trans Concs HIF

∂ ∂Emis

Chem Trans ∂ ∂Concs

MGEOS-Chem

GEOS-Chem Adjoint

Global

• Local • By source

Sensitivity to SO2 Emissions

0 to 804

SO2an1

ΔMglobal / 10% ΔEmis

<10 25 80 200 >630

Sensitivity to NOx Emissions

−16 to 602

NOXan

ΔMglobal / 10% ΔEmis

<10 25 80 200 >630

Sensitivity to NH3 Emissions

−0 to 456

NH3an

ΔMglobal / 10% ΔEmis

<10 25 80 200 >630

Summary �  Strong SO2 sensitivity in northern India and

eastern China

�  Strong NOx sensitivity in eastern China and Europe

�  Weak NH3 sensitivity in India compared to population

�  Results at actionable policy scales