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“Tree cover transitions and investment in multi-colored economy : hypotheses grounded in data”. 13-3-2013 Cifor Campus Bogor, Indonesia Iniciativa de Monitoreo Socio- ecológico de la Amazonía Occidental Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape Valentina Robiglio, ICRAF

Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

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Reducing deforestation and implementing sustainable land-use are major challenges in the Peruvian Amazon, where the socio-economic development of smallholder migrant farmers and the attraction of private investment forlarge-scale agriculture, oil extraction and mining, together with the construction of roads, are part of government strategy to integrate the region in the growing national economy. This study considers the potential of intervening in the configuration and structure of the agricultural mosaic, combining avoided deforestation, reforestation and tree enrichment in the landholdings of smallholder cacao farmers of the Ucayali region. Due to favorable international prices and public and private investments, the last 10 years has seen a rapid proliferation of producers’ associations that have become important players in local development. Besides connecting farmers to the market and providing agricultural services, associations are important in the process of land allocation and titling, in lobbying for infrastructure and services for settlers, and ultimately in determining land-use trajectories, including deforestation and forest degradation. Cacao producers’ associations have also played an important role in promoting the certification process and, more recently, access to the voluntary carbon market. For all these reasons, such associations are a suitable entry-point for interventions affecting land-use at the landscape-level.

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Page 1: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

“Tree cover transitions and investment in multi-colored economy : hypotheses grounded in data”. 13-3-2013 Cifor Campus Bogor, Indonesia

Iniciativa de Monitoreo Socio-

ecológico de la Amazonía Occidental

Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape

Valentina Robiglio, ICRAF

Page 2: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

IMSAO: introduction

40 M Ha

Page 3: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Between 6.3/6.5….general themes for research emerged from the partners’ meeting

• What are the primary factors that determine deforestation (eg. agricultural and forest policy, mining, infrastructure development)?

• What is the social/environmental cost of land use change?

• Do informal markets and land uses affect land use and natural resources change more than formal ones?

• Improving private sector environment, rural associations could be more productive and efficient…what about landscape impact?

Page 4: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

UCAYALI: general information Capital: Pucallpa area: 102,410 km2 (8% Peru) 2012 population: 490,000 (25%rural); Poverty: 70% (2001)e 20% (2011) 2007 HDI = 0.6022 Agriculture (area): <2% Peru 1994 census: 21,000 landholdings Coca: >3,000 ha (2011) 8 million ha forests: 50% concessions

Back ground map Source: GLC 2000

Page 5: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Population density and settlement distribution

Page 6: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Poverty index (% of extreme poverty)

Page 7: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Indigenous groups land

Page 8: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Conflicts over Land

Page 9: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Cumulative deforestation -2009

Cumulative Deforested area: 1990 : 547,750 ha 2000 : 627,064 ha 2010 : 700,000 ha

Page 10: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Drivers of change

Infrastructural development

Transport infrastructure

timber trails

town roads

highway (Lima-Pucallpa)

•Establishment of settlements and

provision of social services by

PDA/MINAG

Regional and national development

plans

Agricultural expansion

Expansion of smallholders’

agriculture: annual and

biannual farming (S&B), oil

palm , pastures, cacao,

illegal crops;

Wood Extraction

•Legal Timber production

•Informal, small-scale

production of timber,

charcoal and firewood

Mining & Energy

Gold mining

(legal/illegal)

•Hydrocarbur

concessions

Demographic factors

Population increase

Uncontrolled Migration

from the Andean region

Rapid Unplanned regional

urban growth

Economic factors

•Improved market access

(national & global) and

increased demand for

commodities

•Extensive agriculture

(slash-and-burn) only

viable option for low

income settlers

•Alternative development

agency investments to

eradicate illegal crops

Institutional and political factors

•Lack of clear, comprehensive

development/conservation strategy at the

regional and national level

•Promotion of settling

•Lack of policy implementation (e.g. for

timber harvest control).

•Promotion of cattle ranching (1970s)

•Subsidies and credit availability /

Alternative Development interventions

•Land titling process and land trafficking

Socio-Cultural

factors

•Scarce local

ecological knowledge

of the migrants

•Persistence of

illegal/criminal

networks for

trafficking in illegal

crops, timber, gold

and land

Other

Forest fires, from

uncontrolled agricultural

burning

Agronomic

•Rapid soil fertility loss

•Pest and weed

reduce harvests

•Lack of assessment

of land suitability to

target crops

DIR

EC

T D

RIV

ER

S

UN

DE

RL

YIN

G D

RIV

ER

S

Modified from Velarde e t al. 2010

Page 11: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Provincial level: Padre Abad

PADRE ABAD

Population and settlements dynamics

Page 12: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

0

100

200

300

400

Forest 95% > short fallow

Forest 95%>mosaic with pastures

Forest 95%> Forest 70%

Forest 95%> Forest 50%

Long fallow > Short fallowLAND USE CHANGES 1990-2007

Data ASB/REALU (Glenn Hymann0)

Provincial level: land cover/use changes

Page 13: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Provincial level: Padre Abad

Tenure and land cover dynamics

Page 14: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

Trajectories of changes on the ground:

Page 15: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

The way forward… - Work on the contextualization of the 6.3 overarching HPs: Link observed trajectories of land use observed at the provincial levels to tree cover trends and overarching HPs (adding socio-cultural component, understanding of migration and population distribution, understanding of land transactions , of investment and development programs e.g. PDA)

- Analysis of land use zoning and planning practices (REDD Mesa, ZEE

technical unit, DGOT in MINAM)

- Link observed trajectories to drivers of change and actors (oil palm – large holders/smallholders, oil palm versus cacao and pastures, displacements)

- Assess the impact of changes on ES functions and the feedback options

- Identify strategic partners (e.g. farmers’ organizations as an entry point to

Page 16: Seminar 13 Mar 2013 - Sesion 1 - Western Amazon Sentinel Landscape by VRobiglio

THANK YOU