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1©2015 TCX Inc
Semiconductor Innovation –
a Continuum of Opportunities
Rakesh Kumar, Ph.D., Life Fellow IEEE
September 22, 2016
858.945.3758
IEEE Women in Tech Summit, San Diego
Ref: “Fabless Semiconductor Implementation”, McGraw Hill
2©2015 TCX Inc
Market Drivers
Industry Background & Challenges
OpportunitiesInnovation in Product Development
Integrated Co-Design3D / MtM
EntrepreneurialCareer Development
3©2015 TCX Inc
On the Metro in Shenzen, China, October 28, 2013
~ 5B worldwide
4©2015 TCX Inc
Design
Process
Package
Board
ProductSemiconductorsdrive the Electronics food chain……but get Very Little Recognition
Software
Let’s educate the people around us,…about our complex business
Die/DiceChip
5©2015 TCX Inc
SYSTEMS Auto, Computing, Comms, Industrial, …
ELECTRONICS
SEMI
M&E~$ 80BMaterials & Equipment
~$ 300BSemiconductors
~$ 1,500B
~$ 30,000B
The Electronics System Industry
6©2015 TCX Inc
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year Source: IC Knowledge, ISSCC, TCX
Tra
nsis
tors
per
Ch
ip, M
Min
imu
m F
eatu
re S
ize, u
m
More Moore…Transistor complexities have doubled every 2 years
System Co.’s – IBM, Hitachi, Sony, Philips, Unisys,…
Semiconductor Co’s – Fairchild, T.I., Motorola, National, Intel, Toshiba, …
Fabless Co.’s
MF µP PC iNet Cellular
+43% / year
Moore’s Law2x / 12mos…1965-702x / 18mos,,,1970-90’s
2x / 24mos…now
-13% / year
7©2015 TCX Inc
Good News - Insatiable Demand for Mobile Products
Cost Power
Smaller Size/Form FactorChip Complexity
Performance
Semiconductor Industry “INNOVATION”, and “RESILIENCE”
8©2015 TCX Inc
Moore Scaling…many TECHNICAL challenges
TECHNICAL solutions will likely be there when needed
Lithography
Immersion / EUV
New Materials & Structures
Circuit & Modeling for Low Power, Energy & Noise0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980's 1990's 2000's# E
lem
en
ts U
sed
/ P
ote
nti
all
y u
sed
in S
em
ico
nd
ucto
r In
du
str
y
Ref: Sematech / Intel
Ref: imec 2014
9©2015 TCX Inc
ECONOMIC challenges are threatening
Increased Cost of Capital, R&D, Design
Sources: imec Sematech intel tsmc umc asml
McKinsey & Company 4
Working D
raft -Last Modified 4/18/2011 11:19:18 A
MP
rinted 10/13/2010 8:56:28 PM
|
Costs associated with node progression have been rising significantly
6,700
4,850
4,000
2,500
1,800
1,450
22nm32nm45nm65nm90nm130nm
+36% p.a.
Fab cost
$ Millions
Process development cost
$ Millions
Chip design cost including fabless
overhead costs*
$ Millions
SOURCE: Press Reports; iSuppli; ICKnowledge; GSA; WorldFabWatch; ITRS
Estimated
cost CAGR
Percent
16 18 17 21 25 25
1,300
900
600
400
310250
22nm32nm45nm65nm90nm130nm
+39% p.a.
150
100
60
34
24
15
22nm32nm45nm65nm90nm130nm
+58% p.a.
* Chip design cost includes product R&D cost (design, verification & photomask) and other fabless costs (overhead, IP licensing, etc.)
>30% ~40%~60%
Cost per Function must continue to REDUCE for continued Scaling
10©2015 TCX Inc
Market Drivers
Industry Background & Challenges
11©2015 TCX Inc
Increasing Adoption of Technology in lives around the world
Mobiles Outnumber People
>90% keep their cellphones within reach 24x7
Social Media drivers:>100 hours of Videos uploaded to YouTube every minute
>150 M Facebook visitors>6 K Tweets every second
>1 B Google searches every dayChina has 0.65 B Internet users
USA has 0.86 Internet users per person (2x China)
Data Explosion!
Source: Luc van den hove, imec 2014
Ref: www.internetlivestats.com, Mark Adams, Micron
12©2015 TCX Inc
The New ParadigmThe “Internet of Things”
Sensors everywhere…Smartphone:
ProximityLight SensorMicrophone
CameraGyro
AccelerometerCompassHumidity
TemperaturePico Projector
RF switchPressure
Digital Home..Healthcare….
13©2015 TCX Inc
Market Drivers
Industry Background & Challenges
OpportunitiesInnovation in Product DevelopmentIoT and 5G –Technical and Holistic
Integrated Co-Design3D / MtM
EntrepreneurialCareer Development
The Changing world
14©2015 TCX Inc
Smartphones drive diverse technologies
User Experience
Low Cost
Battery LifeLow Power
Compact
PerformanceArchitecture, SW, Design, …
FC + WB stack
TSV + FC stackTSV system stack
More Moore
More than Moore
MEMSSensors
Ultrabook PCs also drive diverse technologies
15©2015 TCX Inc
SiliconTechnology
More Moore More Than Moore
Product Innovation Through Early Co-Design
Packaging& Test
ArchitectureSoftwareDesign
Pathfinding / Tradeoffs / Optimization Partitioning Performance Power Cost
Opportunities – Co-Design
“Co-operative Scaling” ...imec
16©2015 TCX Inc16
Today’s Wearables
Ref: P. Mercier, UCSD CWS
Point SolutionsToo Many“Clunky”Useful?
17©2015 TCX Inc
Ultra-low-power bioelectronics
e.g., world-record lowest-power wireless biosensors (<1nW)
Unique wearablebiosensors
e.g., non-invasive electrochemical glucose sensors
Best-in-class bioenergy harvesting
e.g., biofuel cells operating from human perspiration
LED “OFF” LED “ON”
Watch “OFF” Watch “ON”
A B
C
LED “OFF” LED “ON”
Ref: P. Mercier, UCSD CWS
18©2015 TCX Inc
Expand Focus on holistic SOLUTIONS…not just the Technology and point solutions!
Some Challenges:Security, Privacy, ComplianceInteroperability and StandardsLegalReliability…
Does Customer Care?
5G Technical Benefits:LatencyCapacity Speed …
19©2015 TCX Inc
Innovation Opportunities – Process, Devices, Design,…
Vdd Scaling 0.7v 0.5v < 0.5v
Fully-depleted Channel
Electrostatics
Band-engineered Channel for
Enhanced Transport
Novel Materials &Structures
Ref: IMEC ITF July 2012
20©2015 TCX Inc
Evolution of Memory connectivity
ProtoRef: IMEC ITF July 2012
Opportunities – 3D MtM
21©2015 TCX Inc
Micron’s Hyper Memory CubeOpportunities – 3D MtM
Source: Micron
22©2015 TCX Inc
High growth Startup companies are a major source of job growth in the US
Many Innovators
Many new Opportunities for Entrepreneurship
CloudComputing, Mobile Apps, Internet of Things,…
“Easy” to start a new company!
The Age of Entrepreneurship
After Ash Maurya, “Running Lean”
Source: ILO 2014
Opportunities - Entrepreneurial
23©2015 TCX Inc
Most Startups are not successful!
Most Startups focus on the Solution, and Not the CUSTOMER
24©2015 TCX Inc
Typical SU Focus (“The old way”)
Let’s Build it!
Inventor’s perspective of what the Customer Needs
25©2015 TCX Inc
The New Focus
CAN it be Built ?
SHOULD it be Built ?
Customer’s Validation of their Needs
26©2015 TCX Inc
Where will we find the right Engineers?
Creative and innovative
Customer focused
Entrepreneurial
Team players
Multi-disciplinary
…
Opportunities – Career Development
DesignPackaging
Applications- IoT,……
BioHumanitarianEnvironment
Education…
27©2015 TCX Inc
Ref: Carlo Sequin, VLSI Design Workshop, 1981
28©2015 TCX Inc
Expand your sphere of Influence
“Soft Skills”Communications
PresentationsNetworking
PartnershipsBuild Relationships
Program ManagementMulti-Disciplinary Know-how
Get a Mentor…
Opportunities – Career Development
Apply “Entrepreneurial” Skills
PartnershipsBuild Relationships
Program ManagementMulti-Disciplinary Know-how
29©2015 TCX Inc
Career Development – one example
~40 years in semiconductor industry – Motorola, Burroughs/Unisys, Cadence, TCXOver half in fabless companies
Outsourced technology and products for over 30 years
Consulting services for ~20 emerging and established companies
Career path: Ion Implant engineer
Architected and implemented first all implanted Bipolar Transistor at Motorola Semiconductor
Device Modeling and Characterization
Program Management
Packaging
Engineering Management
Senior Management
Worldwide Design Services
Go To Market Strategy
Entrepreneur
“Virtual Operations” Consulting Services
…
Extensive IEEE volunteer and Leadership experience
President of IEEE Solid-State Circuits Society (2012-13)
Technical
“Soft Skills”
LeadershipManagement
Entrepreneur
Educator
30©2015 TCX Inc
Recognize your STRENGTHS
Identify the OPPORTUNITIES,Near-term and Long-term
GO for IT!
31©2015 TCX Inc
32©2015 TCX Inc
33©2015 TCX Inc
Summary and key take-aways
Insatiable Demand for Electronics, and Semiconductors
Business challenges will determine directions of semiconductor
industry…Technical solutions will be there when needed
MANY opportunities for Innovation, and Entrepreneurism
Figure out how you will ADAPT, “Make Meaning”, and develop your
Career.
