Moving from Impacts to Action:Actionable climate knowledge for risk

management and adaptation planning in EAP

Selvaraju RamasamyNatural Resources Officer

Climate, Energy and Tenure Division, FAO

The EAP region’s agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change

Map Source: FAO (2001)

• Climate of EAP region is diverse, with a wide range of temperature and precipitation variability

• Farming/food systems encompass lowland rice (river basins), upland intensive mixed (mountains), pastoral (arid deserts), artisanal fishing (coasts and small Islands)

• Heavy reliance on agriculture (~62%)

• High dependency on marine resources

• Limited agriculture infrastructure

• Monoculture in intensive farming systems threaten the sustainability– Lowland rice – 17% area; 42% agric.

population

Impacts of quick and slow-onset hazards and creeping changes in climate are increasing

• Quick-onset hazards are already affecting the production systems

(Storms in the Philippines, Viet Nam; temperature induced flash

floods in Mongolia; floods in Mekong; red river etc.,)

Webster et al. (2005)

Impacts of quick and slow-onset hazards and creeping changes in climate are increasing

First and last days of frost at Emerald

(2 degrees in the screen)

100

150

200

250

300

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

No. of days w ith >33° C

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Fre

quency (

days)

• Area affected by slow-onset climate extremes (e.g. drought, dry and wet

spells) are expanding (e.g China, dzud in Mongolia, North East Thailand,

Central highlands and northern mountains of Viet Nam; ENSO associated

droughts in Indonesia, Philippines and Pacific Islands)

• Creeping changes in climate lead to crises in the future (e.g. changing rainfall

pattern, salinity intrusion in Mekong, seasonality, temperature increase and

associated length of growing period)

Demand - Supply mismatch• Demand for climate information is diverse:

– localized, timely and easily understandable

– matches diverse cropping systems and decision cycles

– Suitable for user needs – Policy makers, Institutions, Ag. service providers, irrigation managers, input suppliers, market intermediaries, local cooperatives, micro-financing, farmers, fisherman, livestock herders

– Climate, crop and livelihood data base

• Supply is often constrained by insufficient data and resolution

– Users often perceive that the information is general, data and technical terms not easy to understand

– Narrow, specific and precise information

– Fit the problem to the available tools and methods at hand

– scales of climate outlooks/scenarios and local agriculture decision making

Data and information flow in a generic climate change

impact assessment framework

Changes in extreme

weather events

Future water

availability

Difference in current

and future yield

distribution

(Biophysical impacts)

Crop growth

simulation

(Future)

National/regional

crop production

scenarios for

adaptation planning,

policy development

and investment

decisionsvulnerability

context and

socio-economics

Farm level yield

scenarios to

decide management

practices and

adaptation actions

at the local level

Climate

scenario

downscaling

climate

risk assessment

Future

weather data

Soil data

Crop data

Climate change

scenarios

Historical

weather data

Agronomic Management

Soil water balance

Soil nutrient balance

Weather, crop pest/

disease relationships

Future

technology trend

Crop growth

simulation

(Baseline)

Response to

CO2 change

Economic impacts

Interpretation and communication

of results

• In East Asia and the Pacific, yields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels by up to 20 percent for rice, 13 percent for soybean, 16 percent for wheat, and 4 percent for maize because of climate change

• “It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong” – John Maynard Keynes (1883 – 1946)

• Emphasis on past impacts, current climate variability as an entry point to build resilience (climate risk management approach for adaptation)

• Risk Management approach applies at all time scales

Climate science, data and information to advance actionable climate knowledge

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Warnings & Alert

Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats

Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Prediction

Applications in Agriculture

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Days

1 Week

2 Weeks

Months

Seasons

Years

Weather

Climate Variability

Scenarios Climate Change.

Adapted from: NOAA

Decades

Centuries Uncertainty

Scenario Based Risk Typologies and optimal strategies

in agricultureF

req

uen

cy

Severity

Maximizing input

use efficiency

Optimal use of

resources

Resource protection

and Sustainable

natural resource

management

Enterprise

diversification and

risk coping

mechanisms

Response to save lives

and livelihoods;

promote alternate

livelihood activities

Strengthening social

capital and

community networks

Response to save lives

and livelihoods and

rehabilitation

Transient

livelihood

options

Emergency response

and rebuilding

livelihood resources

Catastrophic

risk insurance

Farm level risk

insurance, safety

nets, risk sharing

mechanisms

Minor Serious Extensive catastrophic

Very Low

Low

Moderate

High Emergency

relief and

rehabilitation

Role of climate knowledge for risk management and adaptation planning

Reduce Vulnerability

and Enhance

Adaptive CapacityManaging

Climate Risks

(Climate/Weather

information for

decision making)

Integration of

climate change

perspectives

into food

and agriculture

Flow of input and

communication

Climate Impacts,

Risks and Vulnerabilities

and Baselines

Cross-cutting actions:• capacity building

• gender inclusion

• coordination and

communication

• partnerships, awareness

raising and advocacy

Gaps in climate monitoring infrastructure and data collection networks, arrangements for data

sharing…

Policy relevant climate information

• Climate risk and impact ‘hotspot’ (critical zones) and Adaptation Areas of Concern (AOCs) – medium range forecasting (5 –10 years) of impacts and vulnerabilities

• Changing boundaries and crop suitability zoning (e.g winter wheat in high latitudes)

• Seasonal patterns of risks and impacts in agriculture and food security (e.g ENSO outlooks and associated impacts; crop yield forecasting)

Localized climate services for farmers.

Weather and climate forecastsMarket price of cropsNear real time weather information

Historical climate data

Historical climate impact data

analysis of climate

related risks and

vulnerabilities and

adaptive options

Socio-economic data

resources and land use

local coping strategies

local rules of thumb

local context

and community

objectives and

local

perceptions

on the ground

decision

making with

clients

information flow on

weather and crop

phenology/ crop stages

information flow on local situation and

community perception on risks and

vulnerabilities

communication of

impact outlooks

and management

advisories

feedback from

the clients

Weather and climate forecastsMarket price of cropsNear real time weather information

Historical climate data

Historical climate impact data

analysis of climate

related risks and

vulnerabilities and

adaptive options

Socio-economic data

resources and land use

local coping strategies

local rules of thumb

local context

and community

objectives and

local

perceptions

on the ground

decision

making with

clients

information flow on

weather and crop

phenology/ crop stages

information flow on local situation and

community perception on risks and

vulnerabilities

communication of

impact outlooks

and management

advisories

feedback from

the clients

Weather and climate forecastsMarket price of cropsNear real time weather information

Historical climate data

Historical climate impact data

analysis of climate

related risks and

vulnerabilities and

adaptive options

Socio-economic data

resources and land use

local coping strategies

local rules of thumb

local context

and community

objectives and

local

perceptions

on the ground

decision

making with

clients

information flow on

weather and crop

phenology/ crop stages

information flow on local situation and

community perception on risks and

vulnerabilities

communication of

impact outlooks

and management

advisories

feedback from

the clients

Managing Climate Risks by Incorporating Weather and Climate Information for Decision-Making

• Prioritize information needs of vulnerable groups

• Enhance use of existing forecast products

• Customize extended range forecasts – intra-seasonal and seasonal

• Train agriculture services to interpret and prepare localised impact outlooks and management alternatives

• Implement reliable communication strategies to reach the end users– Climate Field Schools

– Farmer Participatory Climate Workshops

– Climate Information Centres

– Village Knowledge Centres

– Discussion Support Software

Expanding the coverage of early warning and

climate information

Weather website

Telephone

Early-warning dissemination

platform

Rural meteorological

broadcast

Electronic screen for meteorological

early warning TV weather forecasting

Newspapers

Mobile phone

Information Provision and Feedback

FG

FG

FG

FG

FGHub

Institutional partnerships, knowledge sharing and communication

Agriculture Extension Service and Farmer Service Agencies

Agro-meteorological services and Agrl.

Research Institutes

International/Regional Climate Centres Regional and National Climate

Outlook Forums

Data and Information in Public Domain

Ministry of Agriculture and other

relevant line ministries

National Hydro-meteorological Centres

Data and Information

Interpretation

Impact Outlooks

Management Plans and Localized Climate Responsive

Adaptation Practices

Smallholder Farmers and Local Institutions, Community Based Organizations (Farmer

Groups, Cooperatives, Farmer Associations, Local Networks etc.,)

Key interventions

Institutionalizing climate forecast application in agriculture:

Indonesian Experience

Institutional proclivity and evolution

• The directorate of crop protection was created in 1972

• In mid-1980s there was a shift in mandate

• After El Nino 1997, the impacts of climate variability on crop production became a major concern

• The Ministry of Agriculture included CRM within pest analysis and disaster division under the directorate of food crops protection from 2001.

• In 2005 a separate division of Climate Analysis and Mitigation was formed

Risk Management Actions at local level

• At the district level IPM schools are converted into climate field schools

• Farmer cooperatives consider climate information as integral part of their decision

• BMG revisited the climate zones and provides customized forecasts to many districts

Subbiah and Selvaraju (2006) in Climate Prediction and Agriculture: Advances and

Challenges – A WMO CLIMAG book

Climate Services for sustainable intensification in

Northern Mountain regions of Viet Nam

• The northern mountain region often is affected by climate risks such as drought (winter – spring); whirlwind, flood and flash flood and inundation (summer – autumn)

• Agriculture services promote hybrid rice cultivation in the region

• Climate information plays a key role to support optimal allocation of land area for hybrids and varieties

• Efforts to enhance the use of climate information for stabilizing productivity of hybrid rice

– Delineation of areas suitable for hybrid rice cultivation based on climate related hazard and vulnerability

– Training provincial and district DART officials to prepare impact outlooks and management alternatives

– Climate information considered to advance community based disaster risk management

Improved climate and flood forecasting in Bicol

region of the Philippines

• The region is prone to flash floods, typhoons, water stagnation, drought and landslides

• Characterized by type II climate

• Between 2000 – 2009, 28 tropical cyclones crossed the region and damaged billions of pesos worth of agriculture infrastructure

• Use of climate information for risk management and adaptation

– Strengthening monitoring infrastructure at the Barangai level maintained by Barangay captains (9 automated raingagues)

– Capacity of department of agriculture (DA), disaster managers, local community organizations to interpret climate information and prepare impact outlooks

– Setting up of communication system for delivery of information on time (SMS message exchange between the PAGASA regional office and Baragay captains)

Institutional arrangements and channels of communication for early warning, weather and climate information products

DA Regional

Directorate

SLPRSD/

PAGASA

SS

AGMET

BRS

AWS

AWS

AWS

SS

SS

SS

BRS

BRS

BRS

BRS

BRS

BRS

BRS

AGMET

AGMET

Provincial

Agriculturist

PDMC

Municipal

Agriculturist

MDMC

Agriculture

Technologist

BDMC

FG FG FGF F F

Synthesis and

processing dataClimate Unit

PAGASA

Manila

Opportunities and challenges for enhancing climate services for agriculture in EAP

• An effective information flow system from information providers to users is feasible within the existing institutional systems

• However, an end-to-end institutional feedback mechanisms need to be established

• Such application require significant monitoring infrastructure, database and capacity building efforts at various levels

• Institutionalization of the climate information application system is a key challenge

• On the positive side, ENSO association with rainfall and agriculture has been explained significantly

• Significant developments in converting uncertainties to action at local level

• Demonstration pilot studies showed significant benefit

• Regional and inter-national institutions are active in the field and establishing partnership to learn lessons is prerequisite