Seismic hazard and earthquake loss estimates for Greater Victoria

Martin P. Zaleski P.Geo., CEG

M.Sc. Candidate Department of Earth Sciences

Simon Fraser University

Modified after: Monahan, P.A., Levson, V.M., Henderson, P., & Sy, A. (2000). Quaternary geological map of Greater Victoria. BC Geological Survey Branch, Geoscience Map 2000-2.

Based on mapping by Monahan et al. (2000).

Liquefaction susceptibility estimates based on criteria proposed by Youd and Perkins (1978) and recommended for use in HAZUS. Based on mapping by Monahan et al. (2000).

Modified after: McQuarrie, E.J. & Bean, S.M. (2000). Seismic slope stability map of Greater Victoria. BC Geological Survey Branch, Geoscience Map 2000-3c.

Note: Median ground motion prediction for M 7.2 earthquake on the Leech River Fault. No probability has been assigned to this scenario. PGA in g.

0.01

0.1

1

10

0.01 0.1 1 10

Sa (

g)

T (s)

M=7.1, 5 km, Reverse

Median PSA

Median PSA + 1 SD

Task 1 Build Shake Maps

Deterministic Scenarios

Amplification

Liquefaction & Landsliding

𝐿𝑛 𝑃𝑆𝐴(𝑇) = 𝛼1 𝑇 + 𝛼2 𝑇 𝑀 − 𝛽1 𝑇 + 𝛽2 𝑇 𝑀 ∙ 𝐿𝑛 𝑅𝑟𝑢𝑝 + 10 + 𝛾 𝑇 𝑅𝑟𝑢𝑝 + 𝜑 𝑇 𝐹 𝑆𝐸 = 1.28 + 0.05 ∙ 𝐿𝑛 𝑇 − 0.08 ∙ 𝑀

Task 2 Structural and Demographic Inventories

Scale and Resolution

• Census Tract

• Census Subdivision

• Point Features

Data

• Value (BC Assessment)

• Structural (BCA, UBC)

• Critical Facilities (CRD)

• Age, Income, Ethnicity (StatsCan)

HAZARD VULNERABILITY

ELEMENTS AT RISK

SHAKE MAPS

Task 3 HAZUS Loss Estimation

Damage • Damage Functions

(loss to intensity)

COUNTS AND VALUE

DAMAGE FUNCTIONS

Losses – Dollar Value • GBS by Dissemination Area or Tract • Point Features using AEBM

Recovery • Debris • Shelter Needs