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SEEA & REDD+

A mutually beneficial collaboration?

Bruno Hugel

REDD+ global technical advisor

National REDD+ Strategies

25 September 2017

Aspects explored in this presentation

1. Contributions from SEEA land/forest accounts in integrating forest values into planning

2. Contributions from national REDD+ processes to land/forest accounts

Forests and Climate Change Land (incl. Forests) play important role reg. climate change, NDCs/SDGs, providing livelihoods etc…

… but threatened Bhutan,

Gabon, Suriname

Myanmar Indonesia Cameroon

India, Bangladesh

Stabilization China, Costa

Rica , Vietnam

Time

Forest cover

0 %

REDD+

ECONOMIC GROWTH

How can countries reduce their deforestation while developing??

REDD+ = • Approach to incentivize (financially) developing countries reducing forest cover loss

• Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

• Relying particularly on Results-based payments through Green Climate Fund (GCF)

REDD+

National Strategy

or Action Plan

National Forest Monitoring

System

Safeguard Information

system

Forest Reference Level

• How much forest/carbon, where?

• Changes over time?

• How is it likely to evolve in a BAU scenario?

• What can we do to reduce deforestation AND contribute to development?

• (meta-strategy)

• How do we ensure that we minimize negative impacts / maximize positive?

4 elements required to access REDD+ Results-Based Payments

REDD+

National Strategy

or Action Plan

• What can we do to reduce deforestation AND contribute to development?

1. Contributions from SEEA to REDD+

National Forest Monitoring

System

Safeguard Information

system

Forest Reference Level

Drivers of Deforestation and forest Degradation

Source: Kissinger et al. (2012)

>70% forest degradation in Latin America & (sub)tropical Asia

fuel wood collection, charcoal production

and to a lesser extent livestock grazing in

Africa

2000-2010 relative importance (per region) of drivers of:

a. Deforestation:

AP

b. Degradation:

AP

• 70% increase in the demand for food by 2050 (FAO) Intensification + extension of surfaces (-> Need Optimisation!)

≈ 80% deforestation worldwide

Agriculture: • Commercial • Subsistence

Logging:

Cas

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y: T

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Ph

ilip

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es

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INFRASTRUCTURE EXTENSION

• Transport (roads,

rail) • Markets (public &

private) • Settlements (rural

& urban) • Public service

(water, electric) • Private company

(hydro, mining)

DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS

• Natural increment • Migration • Population density • Population

distribution • Life cycle features

AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION

• Permanent

cultivation (commercial vs subsistence)

• Shifting cultivation

• Cattle ranching • Colonization (re-

settlement, transmigration)

WOOD EXTRACTION

• Commercial

(state-run) • Fuelwood (mainly

domestic use) • Polewood (mainly

domestic use) • Charcoal

production (domestic & industrial uses)

OTHER FACTORS

• Environmental factors (land characteristics – soil quality, topography)

• Biophysical drivers (triggers, e.g. fires, droughts, pests)

• Social drivers (conflict, social disorder, economic shocks)

ECONOMIC FACTORS

• Market growth and commercialization

• Economic structures • Urbanization &

industrialization • Special variables

(e.g. price increases)

TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS

• Agro-technical

change • Applications in the

wood sector • Agricultural

production factors

POLICY & INSTITUTIONAL

FACTORS

• Formal policies (e.g. on economic development)

• Policy climate (e.g. corruption)

• Property rights

CULTURAL FACTORS

• Public attitudes, values & beliefs (e.g. unconcern about forests, frontier mentality)

• Individual & household behavior (e.g. rent-seeking)

DIR

EC

T D

RIV

ER

S

INDIRECT DRIVERS

(Indirect vs. Direct) Drivers of DD

How can countries reduce their deforestation while developing??

Improving/optimizing: • Use of land/forests through: • Conservation of natural forests • Forest restauration

(natural/plantations)

Integrated Land Use Planning (LUP) Strategic Environment Assessment

Envt. & Social impact Assessment Greening agricultural subsidies Agri intensification (with LUP) etc

Through: Incentives Regulatory framework

(policies, monitoring, enforcement)

How to integrate the real (many) values of Forests into (land use) planning?

Better valuation of forest & contributions from forests: • to GDP • More widely (national balance sheet, …?) Consistent, systematic, nation-wide

Systematization of forest stats integration into national statistical framework: • to facilitate integrated planning(?) • …

So, SEEA-Land/Forest accounts & REDD+ ???

SEEA-Land/forest accounts helping?

E.g. Ethiopia - Contribution of forests to national income

• Forest contribution to GDP strongly undervalued: 12.86% of GDP (cash & in-kind / compatible with SNA):

• Non-market benefits (willingness to pay): 2.4B ETB

• Reported separately from GDP

o About half (“only”) from forest industries (undervalued by ≈38%) o Largest market income benefits: fuelwood & livestock fodder (62% of

forest use benefits together)

Forest valuation study - Results - Ethiopia

National Forest Monitoring

System

Forest Reference Level

• How much forest/carbon, where?

• Changes over time?

• How is it likely to evolve in a BAU scenario?

2. Contributions from national REDD+ processes to land/forest accounts (?)

REDD+

National Strategy

or Action Plan

Safeguard Information

system

Satellite Land Monitoring System

National Forest Inventory

GHG Inventory

NATIONAL FOREST MONITORING SYSTEM

MRV MONITORING

Web Interface

Community Monitoring

Other Forest-Related Monitoring

Systems

Forest area changes

Forest carbon stock changes

Forest-related GHG emissions

/ removals

OUTPUTS OUTPUTS

Monitor REDD+ outcomes

Local knowledge, data

& validation

Data sharing, transparency

Integrate with existing systems

National Forest Monitoring System

• How much forest/carbon, where? • Changes over time? Related GHG emissions / removals

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Conservation of forest carbon stock

(Includes Sustainable Management of Forests)

Land change matrix

Following IPCC guidance

Used to define Forest Reference Level submitted by countries to UNFCCC

(goes through Technical Assessment )

Results reported periodically through BUR (Biennial Update Reports)

= Base for results-based payments)

1 possible national interpretation of Deforestation, Degradation, Conservation, SMF, enhancement

Can GSOs use data from NFMS? Which definition of forest? Consistent with NSO data?

• UNFCCC vs others…

What mechanism to systematically integrate forest stats

into national statistics? How to link Min/Dept of Forestry & GSO?

Which datasets used for planning?

Which forest accounts to prioritize?

Use of “National wealth” rather than just GDP in planning?

Questions…

Comments/ answers most appreciated!

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MERCI!

bruno.hugel@undp.org

India

Landscape change + high emissions

Some States considering forests a net liability rather than

source of revenue

(no agriculture expansion & no logging…)

• ≈ 70 Mha forests - 24% national land

territory (FRA 2015)

Implementation of National Forest

Policy = Declining revenue from

forests in some states

E.g. 1986 ban on green felling by Supreme Court in many States

Reform of intergovernmental fiscal transfer system

• India’s Finance Commission recognized:

• Importance of Forests

• Perverse incentives that state & local governments had to undervalue & mismanage forests.

12-13th Commissions - grants allocated according to Forest cover & Forest quality

14th - Tax devolution - Forest Cover 1 of 5 criteria for tax revenue allocation from Central govt

to States Tax revenue ≈ $200 billion/year

Tax devolution to States ≈ $6 billion/year to States

based on forests

Amounts to $120 per hectare per year and is

competitive with agriculture production earnings

More RBF for forest conservation than any other country in the world (incl. Norway)

Is revenue neutral! (no cost for the central govt)