Sectoral Report - SAE

SupplierBusiness

The Electric LightVehicle Report

2013 Edition supplierbusiness.com

Sectoral Report

IHS Automotive

2013 Edition 2 © 2013 IHS

IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness | The Electric Light-Vehicle Report

COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND LEGAL DISCLAIMER© 2013 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at [email protected], +1 800 IHS CARE (from North American locations), or +44 (0) 1344 328 300 (from outside North America). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.

IHS AutomotiveSupplierBusiness

Contents

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................... 7Uncertainty and scenarios ......................................................................................................................................... 8Global and local considerations .............................................................................................................................. 13Grid connectivity, batteries and business models ................................................................................................ 14A brief history of electric vehicles ........................................................................................................................... 14Electric drive as part of a range of powertrain solutions ..................................................................................... 17

Market Drivers ............................................................................................................................................................... 21Fuel economy and CO2 emissions ........................................................................................................................... 23

The United States ....................................................................................................................................................... 23The European Union .................................................................................................................................................. 24Japan ......................................................................................................................................................................... 24China ......................................................................................................................................................................... 25Other countries .......................................................................................................................................................... 25

Fuel costs as a driver for grid-connected vehicles ............................................................................................... 26Energy security .......................................................................................................................................................... 28

Incentives for grid-connected vehicles .................................................................................................................. 29The United States ....................................................................................................................................................... 29The European Union .................................................................................................................................................. 30China ......................................................................................................................................................................... 30Japan ......................................................................................................................................................................... 30South Korea ............................................................................................................................................................... 31Canada ...................................................................................................................................................................... 31India ........................................................................................................................................................................... 31

Market Challenges ........................................................................................................................................................ 32Recharging infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................ 32Vehicle manufacturers .............................................................................................................................................. 32Charging facilities ...................................................................................................................................................... 33Recharging technology companies......................................................................................................................... 35Wireless charging technology ................................................................................................................................. 37Grid capacity Management ...................................................................................................................................... 40Charging Standards .................................................................................................................................................. 45Cost Issues ................................................................................................................................................................. 47Range .......................................................................................................................................................................... 49Recharging time ......................................................................................................................................................... 54Resource supplies ..................................................................................................................................................... 55

Lithium ....................................................................................................................................................................... 55Rare earth elements ................................................................................................................................................... 56

Potential vehicle technology issues ........................................................................................................................ 58Enabling Technologies ................................................................................................................................................. 60

Batteries and energy storage ................................................................................................................................... 62Energy and power density .......................................................................................................................................... 63Cycle life ..................................................................................................................................................................... 64

Battery costs .............................................................................................................................................................. 65Cost breakdown for lithium-ion batteries .................................................................................................................... 66

Lithium ion battery construction ............................................................................................................................. 67



Cathodes ................................................................................................................................................................... 68Lithium Cobalt Oxide - LiCo02 ................................................................................................................................... 69Lithium Manganese Oxide Spinel - LiMn204 .............................................................................................................. 69Lithium Iron Phosphate - LiFeP04 .............................................................................................................................. 70Lithium (NMC) - Nickel Manganese Cobalt - LiNiCo Mn02 ......................................................................................... 71Future cathode development ...................................................................................................................................... 71

Anode Chemistries .................................................................................................................................................... 71New anode technologies .......................................................................................................................................... 73

Graphene based anode technology ........................................................................................................................... 73CoS2 hollow spheres ................................................................................................................................................. 73Cobalt Oxide .............................................................................................................................................................. 73Silicon based anode technology ................................................................................................................................. 73Nano-Tin Carbon Graphene Anodes .......................................................................................................................... 75

Electrolytes and additives ........................................................................................................................................ 76Electrolyte materials ................................................................................................................................................... 76Separators ................................................................................................................................................................. 77Cell packaging ........................................................................................................................................................... 77Safety circuits ............................................................................................................................................................. 78Battery packaging ...................................................................................................................................................... 78

Manufacturing issues and quality ........................................................................................................................... 78Chemistry development ............................................................................................................................................ 78

Metal-Air batteries ...................................................................................................................................................... 79Other battery chemistries .......................................................................................................................................... 80Energy storage membrane ......................................................................................................................................... 83

Electric motors ........................................................................................................................................................... 83Direct-current (DC) Motors ......................................................................................................................................... 84Asynchronous alternating-current (AC) motors ........................................................................................................... 84Synchronous AC motors ............................................................................................................................................ 85Switched reluctance motors ....................................................................................................................................... 85Axial-Flux Motors ....................................................................................................................................................... 87In-wheel motors ......................................................................................................................................................... 88Electric corner modules.............................................................................................................................................. 91

Transmissions ............................................................................................................................................................ 93Antonov ...................................................................................................................................................................... 94BorgWarner ................................................................................................................................................................ 94Fallbrook Technologies ............................................................................................................................................... 94Getrag ........................................................................................................................................................................ 95IAV ............................................................................................................................................................................. 95Oerlikon Graziano and Vocis ...................................................................................................................................... 95Wrightspeed ............................................................................................................................................................... 96Xtrac .......................................................................................................................................................................... 96Zeroshift ..................................................................................................................................................................... 96

Range extenders ........................................................................................................................................................ 97Fuel cell range extenders............................................................................................................................................ 98

Electronic components ............................................................................................................................................. 99Electrically-driven ancillaries ................................................................................................................................... 99

Power steering ........................................................................................................................................................... 99Climate control ......................................................................................................................................................... 100

Regenerative braking .............................................................................................................................................. 100Brakes ....................................................................................................................................................................... 101Recharging ............................................................................................................................................................... 102Electric vehicle supply equipment ........................................................................................................................ 104

Fast charging ........................................................................................................................................................... 105Battery exchange ..................................................................................................................................................... 105



Charging station networks ........................................................................................................................................ 106Inductive charging .................................................................................................................................................... 106EVSE suppliers ......................................................................................................................................................... 108

New players, relationships and collaborations .....................................................................................................112Public infrastructure development .............................................................................................................................116Private infrastructure development ............................................................................................................................116Integrated solutions ...................................................................................................................................................117Integrating the charging infrastructure through IT ......................................................................................................117

Market Dynamics and Forecast ................................................................................................................................ 120New markets ................................................................................................................................................................ 124

Vehicle Market forecasts ...........................................................................................................................................124Appendix 1 – Available Electric Vehicles ................................................................................................................. 126Appendix 2 – United States incentives for grid-connected vehicles ................................................................... 140Appendix 3 – Supplier Profiles .................................................................................................................................. 143

B456 Systems (formerly A123 Systems) ................................................................................................................ 143AESC .......................................................................................................................................................................... 147Aleees ........................................................................................................................................................................ 148Amberjac ................................................................................................................................................................... 150Amperex .................................................................................................................................................................... 151Axion Power ............................................................................................................................................................. 152Blue Energy Japan ................................................................................................................................................... 154BYD ............................................................................................................................................................................ 155Continental ............................................................................................................................................................... 160Deutsche Accumotive ............................................................................................................................................. 175Dow Kokam .............................................................................................................................................................. 176EIG ............................................................................................................................................................................. 178Exide Technologies ................................................................................................................................................. 180LG Chem ................................................................................................................................................................... 184Lithium Energy Japan ............................................................................................................................................. 187SK Innovation ........................................................................................................................................................... 189Sumitomo Electric ................................................................................................................................................... 191Valence ...................................................................................................................................................................... 195Visteon ...................................................................................................................................................................... 198Yazaki ........................................................................................................................................................................206

FiguresFigure 1: Passenger Car Sales in 5 ASEAN Countries (units) .................................................................................... 7Figure 2: Passenger Vehicle size and duty cycle aligned to powertrain.................................................................. 8Figure 3: Light-duty EV stock forecast under various scenarios ............................................................................. 9Figure 4: IEA forecast for alternative powertrains ................................................................................................... 17Figure 5: Well-to-wheel CO2 emissions by powertrain including source considerations ................................... 18Figure 6: Comparative drivetrain costing per percentage point CO2 reduction ................................................... 19Figure 7: Well-to-wheel powertrain costs relative to conventional ........................................................................ 19Figure 8: Comparative drivetrain costing per percentage point CO2 reduction ................................................... 21Figure 9: The relative attractiveness of vehicle in China 2010 ................................................................................ 22Figure 10: Different powertrains meet different needs - 2030 ................................................................................ 22Figure 11: Global enacted and proposed fuel economy standards ........................................................................ 23Figure 12: Lifecycle emissions and fuel use per mile for light gasoline and electric cars .................................. 26Figure 13: Crude oil (Brent Spot monthly) 1987 to 2013 ........................................................................................... 26Figure 14: Comparison of average well-to-wheel CO2 emissions of ICEs with those of EVs powered by the average EU electricity mix ........................................................................................................................................... 27Figure 15: US petroleum product imports 2012 ........................................................................................................ 29



Figure 16: SAE J1772 Connectors ............................................................................................................................... 34Figure 17: SAE J1772 Combined Plug ......................................................................................................................... 35Figure 18: WPT charging schematic ........................................................................................................................... 37Figure 19: Evatran’s aftermarket available charging system .................................................................................. 38Figure 20: A floor-mounted induction charge plate ................................................................................................. 39Figure 21: California summer peak loading with unmanaged EV charging scenario .......................................... 40Figure 22: California summer peak loading with work and home EV charging scenario .................................... 41Figure 23: California summer peak loading with 50% acceptance of differential pricing for EV charging scenario ......................................................................................................................................................................... 42Figure 24: California summer peak loading with differential pricing for EV charging scenario ......................... 43Figure 25: Rapidly converging powertrain costs ...................................................................................................... 47Figure 26: Powertrain competitiveness in terms of fuel and battery costs ......................................................... 48Figure 27: Range expectations exceed typical driving distances .......................................................................... 49Figure 28: Range of EVs launched lags expectations .............................................................................................. 50Figure 29: Energy density improvement over time ................................................................................................... 50Figure 30: European and US consumer expectations of plug-in hybrid range (miles) ........................................ 51Figure 31: EV driving range as a function of ambient temperature ........................................................................ 51Figure 32: 1990 US driving patterns (miles) ............................................................................................................... 52Figure 33: Percentage of daily journeys (km) by country ........................................................................................ 53Figure 34: Charge time expectations by country ...................................................................................................... 54Figure 35: Global lithium deposits Lithium Carbonate equivalents ....................................................................... 55Figure 36: Lithium demand forecast to 2025 ............................................................................................................. 56Figure 37: Projected REE demand at historical growth rates ................................................................................. 58Figure 38: Inrekor lightweight EV chassis structure ................................................................................................ 60Figure 39: A graphic representation of vehicle range versus auxiliary load (HVAC) usage ................................ 61Figure 40: A simple comparison of electrical energy storage systems ................................................................. 62Figure 41: The energy density of different fuels........................................................................................................ 63Figure 42: Specific power (W/kg) versus specific energy (Wh/kg) ......................................................................... 63Figure 43: Lithium-ion battery pack cost breakdown .............................................................................................. 65Figure 44: Nominal and usable costs for EV batteries ............................................................................................. 66Figure 45: Patent activity in lithium-ion batteries ..................................................................................................... 67Figure 46: Cathode performance compromises ....................................................................................................... 69Figure 47: Voltage versus capacity for some electrode materials.......................................................................... 70Figure 48: Lithium-ion and nanotechnology roadmap ............................................................................................. 71Figure 49: Anode energy density for various anode technologies ......................................................................... 74Figure 50: Silicon anode dimensional changes ........................................................................................................ 74Figure 51: Lithium-ion battery construction .............................................................................................................. 78Figure 52: Zinc-Air battery systems ........................................................................................................................... 79Figure 53: Theoretical maximum energy density for different cell chemistries .................................................. 80Figure 54: Redox battery technology ......................................................................................................................... 82Figure 55: Typical torque and power comparisons .................................................................................................. 84Figure 56: A schematic of a 6/4 SRM design ............................................................................................................. 86Figure 57: Hiriko Fold pre-production model ............................................................................................................ 89Figure 58: Protean Electric’s in-wheel electric drive modules ............................................................................... 90Figure 59: Michelin ActiveWheel ................................................................................................................................. 92Figure 60: Optimum EV transmission ratios for each performance criterion ....................................................... 93Figure 61: IAV DrivePacEV80 ....................................................................................................................................... 95Figure 62: Lotus range-extender system ................................................................................................................... 98Figure 63: Continental regenerative braking unit ................................................................................................... 100Figure 64: Mazda regenerative braking using a supercapacitor .......................................................................... 101Figure 65: Continental spindle-actuated electromechanical brake ..................................................................... 102Figure 66: A summary of charging locations in the US .......................................................................................... 102Figure 67: A summary of charging locations in the Germany ............................................................................... 103Figure 68: Different options for grid connection .................................................................................................... 104



TablesTable 1: 2030 Global market shares of grid-connected vehicles by IHS scenario ............................................... 13Table 2: Fuel chain efficiency rates for ICE and EV vehicles .................................................................................. 28Table 3: Principal uses of selected rare earth oxides .............................................................................................. 56Table 4: Global estimates of demand for rare earth oxides 2012 ........................................................................... 57Table 5: Cycles by chemistry (deep discharge) ......................................................................................................... 64Table 6: Application cycle requirements .................................................................................................................... 64Table 7: Lithium-ion battery cost breakdown ............................................................................................................ 65Table 8: Battery cost evolution from 2010 with a CAGR of 14% .............................................................................. 67Table 9: Four main types of cathode technology in use today (2010) .................................................................... 68Table 10: Comparison of typical carbon anode capacities ..................................................................................... 72Table 11: PHEV-EV lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future) ............................. 76Table 12: Hybrid lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future) ................................. 77Table 13: Global market for EV charging stations (thousands) ..............................................................................114Table 14: Potential roles within the charging infrastructure value chain .............................................................115Table 15: Comparison of emerging business models .............................................................................................116Table 16: Electric cars and light commercial vehicles ........................................................................................... 126Table 17: State incentives for grid-connected vehicles ......................................................................................... 140

Figure 69: The vehicle electrification value chain ...................................................................................................112Figure 70: Changes and opportunities in the automotive value chain ..................................................................113Figure 71: A Blink charger facility linked to Cisco’s Home Energy Controller .....................................................118Figure 72: 2012 EV sales by country ........................................................................................................................ 120Figure 73: 2012 EV stock by country ........................................................................................................................ 121Figure 74: EV stock for selected countries according to EVI ............................................................................... 122

SupplierBusiness

The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Light Vehicle Report

2013 edition supplierbusiness.com

Sectoral Report

IHS Automotive

Month 2013 2 © 2013 IHS

IHS Automotive SupplierBusiness | The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Report

COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND LEGAL DISCLAIMER© 2013 IHS. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. For more information, please contact IHS at [email protected], +1 800 IHS CARE (from North American locations), or +44 (0) 1344 328 300 (from outside North America). All products, company names or other marks appearing in this publication are the trademarks and property of IHS or their respective owners.

IHS AutomotiveSupplierBusiness

ContentsIntroduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7

Powertrain choices ...................................................................................................................................................... 7Consumer attitudes ..................................................................................................................................................... 9Development of the Plug-in Hybrid Market ........................................................................................................... 10Cost and value considerations ................................................................................................................................ 11PHEV Environmental Performance .......................................................................................................................... 12

Market drivers ............................................................................................................................................................... 14Emissions regulations ............................................................................................................................................... 14

The United States ....................................................................................................................................................... 14The European Union .................................................................................................................................................. 15Japan ......................................................................................................................................................................... 15China ......................................................................................................................................................................... 16Other countries .......................................................................................................................................................... 16

Fuel costs .................................................................................................................................................................... 17Criterion emissions ................................................................................................................................................... 18

The United States ....................................................................................................................................................... 18Japan ......................................................................................................................................................................... 19Europe ....................................................................................................................................................................... 19China ......................................................................................................................................................................... 20Other countries .......................................................................................................................................................... 20

Hybrid architectures ..................................................................................................................................................... 23Parallel hybrid architecture ...................................................................................................................................... 23Series hybrid architecture ........................................................................................................................................ 24Power split hybrid architecture ................................................................................................................................ 24Degrees of hybridisation........................................................................................................................................... 25

Full Hybrid .................................................................................................................................................................. 25Mild or Assist Hybrids................................................................................................................................................. 26Plug-hybrids or dual mode ......................................................................................................................................... 26

Aftermarket conversions .......................................................................................................................................... 27Hydraulic hybrid architecture ...................................................................................................................................... 28Flywheel hybrid architecture ....................................................................................................................................... 29Air hybrid .................................................................................................................................................................... 31

Vehicle integration ..................................................................................................................................................... 32Hybrid technologies ..................................................................................................................................................... 34

Higher voltage architecture ...................................................................................................................................... 34Batteries and energy storage ................................................................................................................................... 36

Energy and power density .......................................................................................................................................... 36Cycle life ..................................................................................................................................................................... 38Battery costs .............................................................................................................................................................. 38Cost breakdown for lithium-ion batteries .................................................................................................................... 39

Lithium ion battery construction ............................................................................................................................. 41Cathodes ................................................................................................................................................................... 41Future cathode development ...................................................................................................................................... 44

Month 2013 3 © 2013 IHS


Anode Chemistries ..................................................................................................................................................... 45New anode technologies ............................................................................................................................................ 46Electrolytes and additives ........................................................................................................................................... 49Separators ................................................................................................................................................................. 50Cell packaging ........................................................................................................................................................... 50Safety circuits ............................................................................................................................................................. 50

Battery packaging ..................................................................................................................................................... 51Manufacturing issues and quality ........................................................................................................................... 51Chemistry development ............................................................................................................................................ 51

Metal-Air batteries ...................................................................................................................................................... 52Other battery chemistries .......................................................................................................................................... 53

Super-capacitors and ultracapacitors .................................................................................................................... 56Energy storage membranes ....................................................................................................................................... 58

Electric motors ........................................................................................................................................................... 59Direct-current (DC) Motors ......................................................................................................................................... 60Asynchronous alternating-current (AC) motors ........................................................................................................... 60Synchronous AC motors ............................................................................................................................................ 61Switched reluctance motors ....................................................................................................................................... 61Axial-Flux Motors ....................................................................................................................................................... 63In-wheel motors ......................................................................................................................................................... 64

Integrated starter-generators (ISG) ........................................................................................................................ 66Belt-driven alternator-starters (BAS)............................................................................................................................ 66Transmissions ............................................................................................................................................................ 67One-mode and two-mode hybrids ............................................................................................................................. 68Getrag ........................................................................................................................................................................ 70FEV ............................................................................................................................................................................ 72Fiat Powertrain ........................................................................................................................................................... 72IAV ............................................................................................................................................................................. 73Jatco .......................................................................................................................................................................... 73ZF Friedrichafen ......................................................................................................................................................... 73

Regenerative braking systems and brake blending .............................................................................................. 74Grid connection and a recharging infrastructure .................................................................................................. 77

Vehicle manufacturers ................................................................................................................................................ 78Charging facilities ....................................................................................................................................................... 79Recharging technology companies ............................................................................................................................ 81Wireless charging technology ..................................................................................................................................... 82

Developing business models and challenges ........................................................................................................... 86New players, relationships and collaborations ...................................................................................................... 86

Public infrastructure development .............................................................................................................................. 89Private infrastructure development ............................................................................................................................. 89Integrated solutions .................................................................................................................................................... 90Integrating the charging infrastructure through IT ....................................................................................................... 90

Market development ..................................................................................................................................................... 93Market dynamics and forecasts .............................................................................................................................. 93Development of the plug-in hybrid market ............................................................................................................ 93

New business models for OEMs, grid companies and suppliers ................................................................................ 94Market forecasts ........................................................................................................................................................ 95

North America ............................................................................................................................................................ 97Europe ....................................................................................................................................................................... 98Japan ....................................................................................................................................................................... 100China ........................................................................................................................................................................101

Supplier Profiles .......................................................................................................................................................... 104B456 Systems (formerly A123 Systems) ................................................................................................................ 104AESC .......................................................................................................................................................................... 108

Month 2013 4 © 2013 IHS


Aleees ........................................................................................................................................................................ 109Amberjac ....................................................................................................................................................................111Amperex .....................................................................................................................................................................112Axion Power ..............................................................................................................................................................113Blue Energy Japan ....................................................................................................................................................115BYD .............................................................................................................................................................................116Continental ............................................................................................................................................................... 121Deutsche Accumotive ............................................................................................................................................. 136Dow Kokam .............................................................................................................................................................. 137EIG ............................................................................................................................................................................. 139Exide Technologies ................................................................................................................................................. 141LG Chem ................................................................................................................................................................... 145Lithium Energy Japan ............................................................................................................................................. 148SK Innovation ........................................................................................................................................................... 150Sumitomo Electric ................................................................................................................................................... 152Valence ...................................................................................................................................................................... 156Visteon ...................................................................................................................................................................... 159Yazaki ........................................................................................................................................................................ 167

FiguresFigure 1: Roadmap for CO2 reduction .......................................................................................................................... 7Figure 2: Cost estimates of marginal fuel economy improvement ........................................................................... 9Figure 3: Carbon dioxide emissions versus cost per percentage fuel reduction ................................................. 10Figure 4: Global plug-in hybrid production forecast ................................................................................................ 11Figure 5: US Annual reduction in GHG production through PHEV adoption in various scenarios ..................... 12Figure 6: Powertrain electrification 2010 to 2020 .................................................................................................... 12Figure 7: PHEV annual costs ....................................................................................................................................... 13Figure 8: Global CO2 (g/km) progress normalised to NEDC test cycle .................................................................. 15Figure 9: Fuel economy standards to 2015 for selected countries (US mpg) ........................................................ 16Figure 10: WTI crude oil prices (US$ per barrel, monthly average 2010 dollars), 2001 – March 2012 ................ 17Figure 11: US Regular Gasoline prices $/gallon, January 2011 to June 2013 ........................................................ 18Figure 12: US emissions standards for light-duty vehicles, to five years/50,000 miles (g/mile) ......................... 19Figure 13: Emissions standards timetable in selected countries ........................................................................... 21Figure 14: NOx limits in the EU, Japan and the US, 1995 – 2010 (g/kWh) ............................................................... 21Figure 15: PM limits in the EU, Japan and the US, 1995 – 2010 (g/kWh) ................................................................ 22Figure 16: Hybrid electric vehicle drive configurations ........................................................................................... 23Figure 17: Charge depletion to charge sustaining transition for PHEV battery packs ........................................ 26Figure 18: An early conversion for the PHEV Prius utilising 15 additional lead-acid batteries ........................... 27Figure 19: Hydraulic hybrid operation ........................................................................................................................ 28Figure 20: Torotrak’s Flybrid flywheel and IVT system ............................................................................................ 29Figure 21: Hybrid price premium per 100,000 units .................................................................................................. 30Figure 22: Peugeot’s air-hybrid architecture ............................................................................................................ 31Figure 23: A comparison of air-hybrid architecture efficiency with other types .................................................. 31Figure 24: Additional functions and changes in electrical architecture ................................................................ 34Figure 25: Additional functionality requires higher voltages – 48 volts ................................................................. 35Figure 26: A simple comparison of electrical energy storage systems ................................................................. 36Figure 27: The energy density of different fuels ....................................................................................................... 37Figure 28: Specific power (W/kg) versus specific energy (Wh/kg) ......................................................................... 37Figure 29: Lithium-ion battery pack cost breakdown .............................................................................................. 38Figure 30: Patent activity in lithium-ion batteries ..................................................................................................... 40Figure 31: Battery costs to OEMs at low volumes .................................................................................................... 41Figure 32: Cathode performance compromises ....................................................................................................... 42

Month 2013 5 © 2013 IHS


Figure 33: Voltage versus capacity for some electrode materials ......................................................................... 43Figure 34: Lithium-ion and nanotechnology roadmap ............................................................................................. 44Figure 35: Anode energy density for various anode technologies ......................................................................... 47Figure 36: Silicon anode dimensional changes ........................................................................................................ 47Figure 37: Lithium-ion battery construction .............................................................................................................. 51Figure 38: Zinc-Air battery systems ........................................................................................................................... 52Figure 39: Theoretical maximum energy density for different cell chemistries .................................................. 53Figure 40: Redox battery technology ......................................................................................................................... 55Figure 41: Ultracapacitor used to overcome temperature sensitivity to temperature of li-ion battery pack ... 56Figure 42: Ultracapacitor versus lithium-ion energy efficiency .............................................................................. 57Figure 43: Ultra-capacitor components ..................................................................................................................... 58Figure 44: Technology roadmap for electric traction motors ................................................................................. 59Figure 45: Typical torque and power comparisons .................................................................................................. 60Figure 46: A schematic of a 6/4 SRM design ............................................................................................................. 62Figure 47: Axial Flux PM motors .................................................................................................................................. 63Figure 48: Mitsubishi MIEV .......................................................................................................................................... 64Figure 49: Protean Electric’s in-wheel electric drive modules ............................................................................... 65Figure 50: Toyota THS power-split transmission ...................................................................................................... 67Figure 51: 2-Mode transmission.................................................................................................................................. 68Figure 52: Cutaway of a 2-Mode transmission ......................................................................................................... 69Figure 53: Getrag’s 7DCT300 PowerShift® transmission ......................................................................................... 71Figure 54: Schematic overview of GETRAG 7HDT300 torque-split hybrid ............................................................ 71Figure 55: Integrated electric motor cooling options .............................................................................................. 72Figure 56: The advantages of an integrated 48-volt motor solution ...................................................................... 72Figure 57: Fuel efficiency comparison for ATs .......................................................................................................... 73Figure 58: By-wire brake system layout with regeneration ..................................................................................... 74Figure 59: Mazda’s supercapacitor based regenerative braking system layout .................................................. 75Figure 60: Mazda’s supercapacitor based regenerative braking system layout .................................................. 76Figure 61: Mazda’s supercapacitor based regenerative braking system layout .................................................. 80Figure 62: WPT charging schematic .......................................................................................................................... 83Figure 63: Evatran’s aftermarket available charging system .................................................................................. 84Figure 64: Changes and opportunities in the automotive value chain ................................................................... 86Figure 65: The vehicle electrification value chain .................................................................................................... 87Figure 66: A Blink charger facility linked to Cisco’s Home Energy Controller ...................................................... 91Figure 67: Grid connected vehicles bring changes and opportunities in the value chain ................................... 94Figure 68: Global plug-in hybrid production forecast to 2020 ................................................................................ 95Figure 69: Global hybrid production forecast to 2020 ............................................................................................. 96Figure 70: Global hybrid production forecast to 2020 .............................................................................................. 96Figure 71: Global hybrid production forecast to 2020 .............................................................................................. 97Figure 72: US hybrid production forecast, 2013 - 2020 ............................................................................................ 98Figure 73: European hybrid production forecast, 2013 - 2020 ................................................................................ 99Figure 74: European hybrid production forecast, 2013 - 2020 .............................................................................. 100Figure 75: Japan hybrid production forecast, 2013 - 2020 .................................................................................... 101Figure 76: China hybrid production forecast, 2013 - 2020 ..................................................................................... 102

TablesTable 1: Estimated fuel economy improvement potential and costs relative to 2005 ............................................ 8Table 2: Japan emissions limits for light gasoline & LPG vehicles (g/km) ............................................................. 19Table 3: Japan emissions limits for light diesel vehicles (g/km) ............................................................................. 19Table 4: Euro 5 emissions limits for light gasoline vehicles (g/km) ........................................................................ 20Table 5: Euro 5 emissions limits for light diesel vehicles (g/km) ............................................................................ 20Table 6: Cycles by chemistry (deep discharge) ......................................................................................................... 38

Month 2013 6 © 2013 IHS


Table 7: Application cycle requirements .................................................................................................................... 38Table 8: Lithium-ion battery cost breakdown ........................................................................................................... 39Table 9: Battery cost evolution from 2010 with a CAGR of 14% .............................................................................. 40Table 10: Four main types of cathode technology in use today (2010) .................................................................. 42Table 11: Comparison of typical carbon anode capacities ...................................................................................... 45Table 12: PHEV-EV lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future) ............................ 49Table 13: Hybrid lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future) ................................. 50Table 14: Potential roles within the charging infrastructure value chain .............................................................. 88Table 15: Comparison of emerging business models .............................................................................................. 90

The Automotive Fuel Cell Technology Report

SupplierBusiness

2013 Edition


© 2013 IHS Global Limited 3

CONTENTS Introduction ................................................................................................................ 6 Key drivers ................................................................................................................ 12

Energy costs and the environment ........................................................................... 12 Fuel Cells and the Automotive Industry .................................................................. 15

Fuel cell technology ................................................................................................... 18 Fuel cell types......................................................................................................... 18

Alkaline Fuel Cells (AFC) ................................................................................... 18 Direct Methanol Fuel Cells (DMFC) ................................................................... 19 Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells (MCFC) ................................................................. 19 Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cells (PAFC) ..................................................................... 20 Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) ............................................................................ 21 Regenerative Fuel Cells (RFC) ............................................................................. 23 Metal Air Fuel Cells (MAFC) .............................................................................. 23 Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC) ............................................... 23 Technology progress ............................................................................................ 24

Fuel cells in the electric powertrain ............................................................................ 31 FCEV cost development ......................................................................................... 31

Hydrogen fuel and infrastructure ................................................................................ 38 Hydrogen production ............................................................................................. 38

Hydrogen from coal ............................................................................................. 38 Hydrogen production through electrolysis ............................................................ 41

Hydrogen storage and infrastructure ....................................................................... 42 Hydrogen storage ................................................................................................ 43 Hydrogen fuel tanks............................................................................................. 44 Future storage technologies.................................................................................. 44 Liquefied hydrogen.............................................................................................. 45 Metal hydrides .................................................................................................... 48 Chemical hydrogen storage .................................................................................. 50 Hydrolysis reactions ............................................................................................ 50 Hydrogenation/dehydrogenation reactions .......................................................... 51

New chemical approaches ...................................................................................... 51 Carbon nanotube storage ..................................................................................... 52 Electrolysis .......................................................................................................... 59

Integration with renewable energy .......................................................................... 61 Development of the automotive fuel cell market ......................................................... 64

Daimler.................................................................................................................. 65 Ford ....................................................................................................................... 67 General Motors ...................................................................................................... 67 Honda .................................................................................................................... 69



Hyundai-Kia .......................................................................................................... 70 Nissan .................................................................................................................... 71 Toyota ................................................................................................................... 72 Volkswagen ............................................................................................................ 72 OEM cooperative agreements ................................................................................. 73

TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 1: A lightweight hydrogen fuel storage tank [Source: BMW] .............................. 7 Figure 2: A hydrogen fuelling station in California [Source: Hydrogen Association] ...... 8 Figure 3: Well-to-wheel CO2 emissions by powertrain including source considerations [Source: Eduardo Velasco Orosco, UAEM & GMM] ................................................. 13 Figure 4: Well-to-wheel powertrain costs relative to conventional [Source: Eduardo Velasco Orosco, UAEM & GMM]............................................................................. 14 Figure 5: Technical hurdles overcome in the deployment of FCEVs [Source: EU, McKinsey] ................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 6: Molten carbonate fuel cell schematic [Source: EERE] .................................. 20 Figure 7: Phosphoric acid fuel cell schematic [Source: EERE] .................................... 21 Figure 8: Solid oxide fuel cell schematic [Source: EERE] ............................................ 22 Figure 9: Proton exchange membrane fuel cell schematic [Source: EERE] .................. 23 Figure 10: Fuel cell stack improvements [Source: GM] ............................................... 25 Figure 11: Platinum loadings for PEM fuel cells [Source: US DOE] ............................ 27 Figure 12: Schematic representation of the functionality of a fuel cell [Source: PEMAS] ................................................................................................................................. 28 Figure 13: System schematics for 2008 and 2009 fuel cell system [Source: US DOE] ... 33 Figure 14: System schematics for 2010 and 2015 fuel cell systems [Source: US DOE] .. 35 Figure 15: Net system cost versus annual production rate [Source: US DOE] .............. 37 Figure 16: Coal gasification process [Source: US DOE] .............................................. 38 Figure 17: Sulphur Iodine cycle for H2 production [Source: Hydrogen Energy] ........... 40 Figure 18: Conventional electrolysis for H2 production [Source: Hydrogen Energy] .... 41 Figure 19: Commercially available solutions for on-board hydrogen storage [Source: US DOE] ........................................................................................................................ 43 Figure 20: BMW’s Cryo-compressed hydrogen storage system [Source: BMW] ........... 45 Figure 21: Hydrogen mass and cost comparison of compressed (700 bar) and cryo-compressed (350 bar) storage [Source: BMW] ............................................................ 46 Figure 22: a schematic of MOF-74 metal organic framework [Source: NIST] .............. 46 Figure 23: Mercedes-Benz F125 fuel cell plug-in hybrid [Source: Daimler] .................. 48 Figure 24: Molecular hydrogen storage in light element compounds [Source: US DOE] ................................................................................................................................. 49 Figure 25: Schematics of nanotube structures [Source: Nanotechnologies] .................. 52 Figure 26: Schematic of a three-dimensional nanotube matrix [Source: RSC] .............. 53 Figure 28: European national initiatives for hydrogen infrastructure [Source: NOW]... 54 Figure 28: Publically accessible hydrogen refuelling stations – Germany [Source: NOW] ................................................................................................................................. 54 Figure 29: Planned development of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure in Germany [Source: NOW] ......................................................................................................... 55 Figure 30: Hydrogen refuelling site Oslo using two Hydrogenics electrlysers [Source: Hydrogenics] ............................................................................................................. 56



Figure 31: Honda’s prototype solar hydrogen refuelling station in Los Angeles [Source: Honda] ..................................................................................................................... 57 Figure 27: ITM Power’s HFuel transportable hydrogen refuelling station [Source: ITM Power] ...................................................................................................................... 59 Figure 28: OMV hydrogen refuelling site Stuttgart [Source: Daimler] .......................... 60 Figure 29: Percentage energy generation from renewable sources [Source: Geocurrents] ................................................................................................................................. 61 Figure 31: London hydrogen fuelling station used by fuel cell buses [Source: Air Products] ................................................................................................................... 62 Figure 32: A schematic for an ‘artificial leaf’ [Source: Science Now] .......................... 63 Figure 37: FECV and BEV contributions to CO2 reductions [Source: Various]............ 64 Figure 38: Mercedes-Benz B-Class F-Cell [Source: Daimler] ....................................... 65 Figure 39: Daimler’s F125!fuel cell hybrid concept [Source: Daimler] ........................ 66 Figure 40: Fuel cell Chevrolet Equinox [Source: GM] ................................................ 68 Figure 42: Honda’s Clarity fuel cell car [Source: Honda] ............................................ 69 Figure 41: Schematic of the Honda Clarity [Source: Honda] ....................................... 70 Figure 43: The first production model of Hyundai’s ix35 fuel cell vehicle [Source: Hyundai-Kia] ............................................................................................................ 71 Figure 43: Toyota’s FCV-R fuel cell concept car [Source: Toyota] ............................... 72 Figure 45: OEM forecast fuel cell vehicle production [Source: IHS] ............................ 73 Figure 46: Geographic forecast fuel cell vehicle production [Source: IHS] ................... 75 Table 1: A comparison of fuel cell technologies [Source: US DOE] ............................. 23 Table 2: Technical targets for automotive applications [Source: US DOE] .................. 25 Table 3: A summary of system costs for 2010 and 2015 technologies at various manufacturing rates [Source: US DOE]...................................................................... 36 Table 4: US hydrogen refuelling stations 2012 [Source: www.fuelcells.org] ................. 58

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