Sector Coupling – a view from a German TSO

Sector Coupling – a view from a German TSOEnergetika, St. Petersburg

13.11.2019, Michael Kranhold

1. 50Hertz – The North East Transmission System Operator

2. Sector Coupling Prospects for Germany

3. Laboratories of Energiewende

4. Outlook

Agenda

2Titel der Präsentation




4. Outlook

Agenda


The Transmission System Operator 50Hertz

4

One of four German Transmission System Operators

Ensures electricity supply to about 18 million people in Germany

Transmission System Operator for Berlin, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt und Thuringia

Responsible for the operation, maintenance and construction of “electricity highways”(220 kV and 380 kV)

Company Profile

Hamburg

Berlin

Transmission grids are the technical backbone of the energy supplyin Germany and in Europe

5Company Profile

Transmission gridownership

System operation

Market development

Trustee

In charge of operation, maintenance and the development of extra-high-voltage lines and power junctions (substations) as well as for the connection of large-scale generators and consumers(including offshore)

Catalyst for the development of the energy market, especially in Northern and Central-Eastern Europe.

Responsible for managing cash flows resulting from the German Renewable Energy Law (EEG).

Responsible for system security: system stability of the transmission system around the clock: frequency control and voltage regulation, congestion management.

DSO – low level (< 110 kV)

DSO – 1st level (≤ 110 kV)

DSO – 2nd to m. level (< 110 kV)

The power system in the 50Hertz grid area

6Company Profile

5 TSOs12 conv. Power plants/ energy

storages

- TenneT- CEPS- PSE

- Energinet.dk- Svenska kraftnät

- Schwarze Pumpe- Boxberg- Jänschwalde- Lippendorf- Reuter West- Goldisthal

- Markersbach- Hohenwarte II- Brunsbüttel (GKW)- Moorburg- Rostock- Schkopau

Other DSOs

10 Distribution system operators

159 Distribution system operators

Approx. 1200 Wind farms

200 Wind farms

PV, Biomasse & other EEG - facilities

CHP and IPP

CHP and IPP

CHP and IPP

PV-, Biomasse- und sonstige EEG-Anlagen

- AVACON- E.DIS- ENSO Netz- SW Magdeburg - MITNETZ Strom

- Stromnetz Berlin- Stromnetz Hamburg- TEN- WEMAG Netz- SW Staßfurt

9 Windfarms 3 Steel plants- 7 onshore- 2 offshore

Cascading

PV, Biomasse & other EEG - facilities

Source: 50Hertz; as of 31.12.2017

TSO (400 kV, 220 kV)

630 balancing group managers1796 balancing groups

RE development in Germany

7Company Profile

The implementation of the German Renewable Energy Law (EEG) led to a massive growth of RE in Germany.

Shad

edAr

ea p

ropo

rtian

alto

inst

alle

dca

paci

ty

2000 2006 2018

− ~ 30.000 plants− 1.665* MW installed wind capacity

− ~ 221.000 plants− 2.233* MW installed wind

capacity

− > 1.600,000 plants− 49.628* MW installed wind

capacity− 41.687* MW installed PV capacity

Soruce: 50Hertz; 50Hertz, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, Google Earth; *Preliminary data

Wind

PV

Biomass




4. Outlook

Agenda


Sector coupling: Power to gas


Blue Hydrogen

Power gridPower gridGas networkGas network

Energy storage/ electrification

Energy storage/ electrification

Electro mobility

Renewables

Households and Industries

H2

HouseholdsIndustries

Gas feed-in

Natural gas Steam reforming

Green Hydrogen

Renewables Electrolysis

Power-to-GasPower-to-Gas

Split natural gas into CO2 and hydrogen

Residual gasses also in H-vision scope

CO2 stored or re-used

Split water into hydrogen by electrolysis powered by

wind and sun

no CO2 emitted

Seite 10

So far, 29 % of the targeted 40 % reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020 has been achieved

Particularly the household and traffic sectors have so far contributed little to GHG reduction. Sector coupling could remedy this.

Source: Umweltbundesamt (2018); Klimaschutzplan 2050 (2016)

132 120 105 120

752

563

407

250164 180 155 170

427 360 355 318

386

280245 193

80

65

65

62

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

2010

3520

1.251

2000 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mio. t

18

940

60

1.040

1990

884

-132 t

-29% -40% -80%

Other sectorsAgriculture

Energy industrytransport

Industry and GHD

HouseholdsTarget path

Greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and others) in CO2 equivalents

Action gap in target path

Seite 11

Increased RE feed-in reduces the residual load over the course of the year, but not the peakload

The share of annual hours covered by RE increases by 2030. Further flexiblisation of consumption and increase of European exchange is to be expected.

07.11.2019

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

0

20

40

60

80

100

German load duration curve for 2017

Total load Residual load

1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

15 minute values:Load: min 29.5 GW max 79.5 GWResidual load: min 0.2 MW max 73 GW

... and a projection for 2030

Annual hours

Annual hours

Residual load Load covered by RE generation

GW GWIncreasing consumption of electricity, incl. DSM and Power-to-X

Source: Extrapolation by German TSOs (2018); GDP (2019) scenario 2030B

Interconnectors neglected

Seite 12

Despite sector coupling, the electricity consumption in Germany hardly rises by 2035

Even when assumptions are high for the prevalence of electric vehicles, the effect of sector coupling on electricity consumption remains low.

07.11.2019

1Without transmission losses and pumped storage offtake; with 8 million electric cars in 2035Source: Federal Environment Agency (2017), Grid Development Plan 2035B (2019)

Limited effect of sector coupling on the total energy consumption

Power to Heat applications have larger effects on energy consumption than electric mobility

High insecurity about the increase in electric vehicles and heat pumps

High insecurity about the evolution of the total energy consumption

11.5 %

Net electricity consumption1 in Germany

Influence ofsector coupling

TWh

Remarks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

40,4%

23,2%

3,8%3,8%

21,9%

3,0%

3,9%

2015

0,2%0,4%2,3%

530

25,2%

28,4%

43,5%

524

2035

+1,1%

Other PtXElectromobilityHeat pumps

HouseholdsOther

ServicesIndustry

Seite 13

Peak loads caused by electric mobility are hardly significant compared with the total load

Peakloads caused by electric mobility have hardly any importance compared with the total load.

07.11.2019

1Based on the GDP 2035B using the example of 07/02/2035, 10 million electric cars Source: Grid Development Plan 2035B (2017)

20

40

0

10

30

50

60

80

70

90 84 GW

4:00

0:00

8:00

12:0

0

16:0

0

20:0

0

23:0

0

Electromobility

ServiceHeat pumps

Households

Other Industry

0

1

2

4

3

5

6

7

8

12:0

0

8:00

0:00

16:0

0

4:00

20:0

0

23:0

0

7 GW

Smart charging

Fast charging

Load profile for electric mobility contains 20 % of flexible applications and 80 % of regular charging behaviour

Peakload due to electric mobility(7 GW) and across all sectors(84 GW) on a weekday in the coldest winter week

Increase of peakload can be limited by flexibility in the system

Predicted1 load curve per sector Assumptions

GW GW

Seite 14

The need for power-to-gas is controversial ...

– Power-to-gas is not necessary or economically viable for an 80% reduction in German greenhouse gas emissions. (Long-term scenarios BMWi 2017)

– "The -95% targets can not be achieved without PtX. A large part of the PtX is imported from abroad.“ (Dena Lead Study 2018)

– „Even in the long term, importing synthetic methane is associated with lower costs than generating synthetic methane based on offshore wind energy in the North and Baltic Seas„ (Agora Energiewende 2018: The Future Cost of Electricity-Based Synthetic Fuels)

– "Scenarios with a broad mix of technologies [cause] significantly lower costs by 2050 ... and [are] more robust in terms of implementation challenges such as acceptance ..." (dena Lead Study 2018)

In the long-term perspective, PtG plays a role in achieving the decarbonisation goals

Seite 15

Direct electrification is the most efficient way to use renewable electricity in transport

Direct electrification allows the use of RE in the country. The production of SynGas is probably cheaper abroad.

H2

H2

η≈0,95 electrolysis

η≈0,65fuel cell

η≈0,90Transport and storage

1,54 MWh H2

1,71 MWh

1,8 MWhRE

One unit of mobility

1,05 MWh

η≈0,95transfer

η≈0,95 electric motor

1,1 MWhRE

Alternative: import of synthetic fuels via

existing infrastructure

Higher demand for renewable energy

2 MWh SNG

η≈0,50gas motor

SNG

η≈0,90Transport and storage

2,2 MWh

η≈0,65 Electrolysis and

methanation

3,4 MWhRE

SNG

Seite 16

Sales of new technologies in the transport sector - Electromobility dominates hydrogen mobility

Hydrogen mobility is behind electric mobility about 5-10 years

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New

regi

stra

tions

elec

tric

cars

* in

Mio

. Restliche WeltRest-EuropaDeutschlandUSAChina

*PKW und LNFZ (BEV, PHEV und REEV)

Ca. 7000 H2-Cars in 2017

Quelle: ZSW 2019

Seite 17

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

How much electricity would we need for "indirect electrification" of heat and transport?

The quantities of RE required for complete decarbonisation of heat and transport are significant!

Source: Extrapolation by German TSOs (2018); NEP (2019) Szenario 2030B

Projection Residual load 2030 … and needed Load for covering other sectors

500 TWh

1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Annual hours

GWIncreasing consumption of electricity, incl. DSM and Power-to-X

Interconnectors neglected

around 15 TWh

Seite 18

Open questions about power-to-gas

Real laboratories can help to solve some outstanding issues.

What obstacles exist in terms of technical feasibility?

From which RE-mix (tipping point) does PtX / G make sense from a CO2-avoidance perspective?

Should be synthetic gases produced or rather imported in Germany? What is the wish of politics? What is realistic?

Which business models will prevail?

What does the distribution of roles look like in an economically regulatory useful framework?

??

??

? …..?

Seite 19

Conclusion

– Impact of the sector coupling on the power consumption is low - effect on (residual) load peaks and load flows still needs investigation

– The driver of power to gas: decarbonisation of other sectors, not the “healing" of network bottlenecks

– From a grid perspective, power-to-gas (at least in the medium term) is not an alternative to the necessary network expansion

– However, in order to have the technology "ready to go" from 2030, real laboratories can provide valuable insights for power to gas




4. Outlook

Agenda


Seite 21

Real laboratories as test rooms for innovation and regulation

Aktueller Stand bei den Reallaboren der Energiewende15.10.2019

Real Laboratory Promotion / Status Quo Target and scope

"The goal is that we want to become the number one in the world in hydrogen technologies" (Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier)

Promotion for max. 5 years includes planning and installation phase as well as a 1 to 3-year test operation / monitoring phase

€ 100 million per year for four years between 2019 and 2022

In addition, € 200 million for real laboratories in structural change regions

At the latest in three years, there will be another call for tenders for new projects

Part of the 7th Energy Research Program "Innovations for the Energiewende", which includes € 6 billion

First round of real laboratories: Application from 11.02.2019 to 05.04.2019 On 18.07. Announcement of the 20 winners (90 applicants) Funded in the following areas:

• Large-scale energy storage in the electricity sector• Energy-optimized quarters• Sector coupling and hydrogen technologies

Seite 22

Real laboratories of the energy transition in the 50Hertz control zone

Aktueller Stand bei den Reallaboren der Energiewende15.10.2019

17 Reallabor Lausitz

18 Referenzkraftwerk Lausitz

16 JenErgieReal

13 GreenHydroChem

12 EnergieparkBL

8 Reallabor GWP

7 IW3

Hydrogen andenergy storagetechnologies

energy-optimizedquarters

Legend

Seite 23

"Hydrogen region Lusatia„

Idea: 50-100 MW electrolysis for H2 supply to the Ontras network and, if necessary, construction of a local H2 network. 50Hertz for evaluation of network and system suitability

50Hertz has agreed to participate in two real laboratories, and two more are in narrower choice

"Reference Power Plant Schwarze Pumpe„

Idea: 10 MW storage power plant, use of H2, as well as provision of SDL (including reactive power, black start) possibly via reverse power generation (fuel cell)

„GreenHydroChem“subprojectLeuna

Idea: up to 100 MW electrolysis at the chemical site Leuna for direct supply u.a. the refinery with green H2

Real laboratories for the energy transition In planning

15.10.2019 Aktueller Stand bei den Reallaboren der Energiewende

!

"Real laboratory Lusatia„

Idea: Energy-optimized neighborhoods (low-carbon neighborhoods and low-emission traffic)

Regional actors from Cottbus, Lübben, Lübbenau &

Spremberg




4. Outlook

Agenda


25

Outlook

The driver of PtX / G plants is the decarbonization of the sectors industry, mobility and heat - not the “healing" of network problems

An overall economic benefit becomes visible if and only in a long-term perspective (after 2035)

In order to advance the market maturity of PtX/ G and to have the technology fully developed after 2035, real laboratories are already useful and necessary

Titel der Präsentation

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Sector Coupling – a view from a German TSO