SECTION 1 Examples of simple diagnostic models of ecosystem response to climate forcing

Diagnostic ModelsHerring

ECOFOR 2012

SECTION 1 Examples of simple diagnostic models

of ecosystem response to climate forcing

NORTH ATLANTIC HERRING

Marc HufnaglMyron Peck, Thomas Pohlmann,

Mark Dickey-Collas, Richard Nash,Markus Kreus, Johannes Pätsch


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http://www.fisheries.is/main-species/pelagic-fishes/atlantic-herring/

http://www.gma.org/herring/biology/distribution/stocks.asp

Toresen Østvedt, 2000

http://www.thefishsite.com

Georges Bank

Nova Scotia

St. Lawrence

Iceland

NorwayNorth Sea


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Calendar day

Shetland

Buchan

Banks

Downs

Norway

Firth of Clyde

Downs

Celtic/Irish Celtic/Irish

west. Balticlatit

ude

50°

54°

56°

58°

62°

60°

0 30 90 120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

Iceland

60

Herring spawning periods North Sea


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StockCollapse

Recovery

"Normal"Fishery

RecentPeriod

adults, F2-6

juveniles, F0-1

2.0

1.0

0.0

100

50

0

1

019701960 19901980 2000 2010

Mo

rta

lity

(F)

(yea

r-1)

Re

crui

ts(1

09)

SS

B(M

t)

Payne et al. (2009)

North Sea Autumn Spawners


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Influenced by environmental factors?

Toresen Østvedt, 2000, Fish and Fisheries

Norwegian spring spawners


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standardized recuitment

SSB [million t]

AMO

NAO

Gröger et al. 2009 ICES JMS

Influenced by environmental factors?


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1. What influenced the decrease in recruitment ?

- what is the most important period ?

- what are the best indicators ?


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Juveniles (IBTS age 1)

Ad

ult (S

SB

)

Early larvae (MLAI)

Lat

e la

rvae

(M

IK)

Payne et al. (2009)


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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

50

100

150

200

250

300

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

19841985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

19911992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

20022003

2004

2005

MLAI (recruitment abundance fall winter)

MIK

(s

urv

ive

rs i

n F

eb

ruar

y)


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Analyzing the experienced environmental conditions using drift models

Approach 1: Specific herring drift model

Approach 2: General analysis of potential indicatorsfor different species

Approach 3: IBM to analyze survival and growth


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6°W 4°W 2°W 0° 2°E 4°E 48°N

51°N

54°N

57°N

60°N

me

an

larv

al a

bu

nd

an

ce

(n·m

-2 ,

19

72

-20

07

)

abundance ( n·m-2 )

OS

Bu

BaN

BaS

Do

0 500250time (day)

0 100 200 3000

5000

500

10000

500

1000

0

5000

500OS

Bu

BaN

BaS

Do

start areas start times


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1980 2000

NA

O

1994/1995 1995/1996

Drifter positions in February


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Proxies for each spawning component on drift day 150 (February, IBTS)

- temperature- cumulative temperature- mean longitude- mean latitude- major axis of kernel- minor axis of kernel- tilt angle of kernel- isotropy- distance

Drifter positions in February


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-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

eigenvector 1 (26.1 % of variance)

eig

enve

cto

r 2

(25.

9 %

of

vari

ance

)

2.1

7

7

7.8 9.3

4.4 4.3

3.7

2.4

7

2.5

0.5

0.2

0.4

2.2

4.5 3.4

6.1

4.8

3.4

0.9

3.3

2.3

5.3

1.2

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.3

PCA of all indicators(labels overwinter survival)

survival lower than averagehigher than average


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-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

R²= 0.46

eigenvector 2

ov

erw

inte

r s

urv

ival

Recruitment is related to drift and temperature conditions


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-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

R²= 0.46

eigenvector 2

ov

erw

inte

r s

urv

ival

Recruitment is related to drift and temperature conditions

distance between start and end position

Temperature


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- Coupling of a Langrangian Drifter model with NPZD- Starting drifters in each box each day from 1980 to 2006- Tracking of all available idices over 60 days- T, S, Phytoplankton (small, large), Zooplankton (small, large)- Kernel statistics


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- Coupling of a Langrangian Drifter model with NPZD- Starting drifters in each box each day from 1980 to 2006- Tracking of all available idices over 60 days- T, S, Phytoplankton (small, large), Zooplankton (small, large)- Kernel statistics

161 areas365 days 12 months25 proxies

year

pro

xy


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pro

xy3

pro

xy2

year

pro

xy1

Correlation of proxy serieswith Recruitment/SBB series

correlation prediction

correlation in the first half significant

3 neighboring areas also significant

r² in the second half > 0.3

R/SSB = a x Proxy + b

Identification of area, month and proxy

Future prediction of R/SSB


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month

R/S

SB

year19901980 2000 2010

spawning period

proxy P2

P12

Z1

Z2Z12

# c

orr

el.

# c

orr

el.


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x spawning areas

correlations


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Preliminary results of a herring forecasts

and

a similar approach for other species


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2070 2080 2090 2100

R/SS

Bmean ± sd observations

mean ± sd hindcast

mean ± sd forecast


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Preliminary results for other species


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R/S

SB


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# c

orr

ela

tion


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# c

orr

ela

tion

s


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x spawning areas

correlations


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R/S

SB

forecast


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Thank you for your attention !


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What are the mechanisms how is recruitment influenced ?


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What are the mechanisms/reasons ?

Prey concentrations during first feeding have to be high

Combination of temperature and daylength restricts survival

Size of the zooplankton and match mismatch influences survival


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Overview

North Atlantic Herring

North Sea Herring

Recruitment variability

Climate influece

Recruitment models

What are the mechanisms ?

http://www.gma.org


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Do we get similar results to the study before?

YES, ….

Number of significant correlations between T°C and R/SSB


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Do we get similar results to the study before?

YES, ….

… but other indicators have an even higher predictive capacity


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AUTUMN and WINTER SPAWNERS

Nash et al. (2009)


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Nash et al. (2009)

IHLSMLAI - INDEX(multiplicative larvaeabundance index)


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Nash et al. (2009)


1st quarter IBTSMIK 0-group index20 to 30 mm SL


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Nash et al. (2009)


1st quarter IBTSMIK 0-group index20 to 30 mm SL

Aug-Jan

IHLS

Feb

IBTS


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Experienced Temperatures


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Changes in Experienced Temperatures


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North Atlantic Herring


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So what do early life stages experience?

5

15

10

5

1970 1980 1990 2000

T°C

15

10

5

15

10

15

10

10

5

1970 1980 1990 2000

Orkney

Buchan

Banks

Downs

Larvae pre-metarmorphosis

Juvenile 0

Juvenile 1

Documents

SECTION 1 Examples of simple diagnostic models of ecosystem response to climate forcing