Second Workshop on the Geology and Hydrocarbon Potential

of the South China Sea and Possibilities of Joint Development*

Workshop Report by

C.Y. L i and Mark J. Valencia

October 1983

sdat the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, 2 2 - 2 6 August 1983; organized by theEnvi-ind Policy Institute of the East-West Center, cosponsored by the A S E A N Counci l on Pe­ine Committee for Co-ordination of Joint Prospecting for Mineral Resources in Asian ffshore Areas (CCOP), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

CONTENTS

Foreword 1 Introduction 3 Workshop Conclusions and Recommendations 5

Offshore O i l and Gas Development and Potential in Areas Related to the South China Sea .5

Marine Geology and Geophysics of the South China Sea 6 Implementation of the S E A T A R Program 6 Joint Development 7 Cooperation among A S C O P E , CCOP, IOC, and E A P I / E W C 8

Summary of Presentations and Discussions 9 List of Contributed Papers 9 Update on Offshore Hydrocarbon Development and Potential

in Countries Bordering the South China Sea 10 Geology and Geophysics of the South China Sea Area 16 Assessment of Undiscovered Recoverable Hydrocarbon Resources 20 Joint Studies, Research, and Investigation of the South China Sea Area 21 Environmental Aspects of Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration and Exploitation . . 22 Changes in the O i l Market 25 Joint Development 26

Appendices Appendix 1. List of Participants 29 Appendix 2. Workshop Agenda 32

FOREWORD

T h e Envi ronment and Policy Institute (EAPI) of the East-West Center was established in October 1977 to conduct research and edu­cation programs through multinational collab­oration on environmental aspects of policy and decision making in the East-West Center re­gion. The program of the Institute emphasizes (1) analysis of various policies (e.g., economic development, maritime jurisdiction) to i l lumi­nate their dependence and impacts on natural systems and thus on the objectives of the poli­cies, and (2) assessment of scientific and tech­nical information about natural systems for more coherent policy formulation and imple­mentation through planning and manage­ment. This systematic approach avoids the po­larization of environmental values versus sectoral goals.

The marine environment represents a major resource for the countries of the world as they strive to meet a variety of needs on a sustained basis. Concerns such as environmental quality, viability o f f i s h stocks, and orderly exploitation of hydrocarbons are important priorities as countries consider individual and collective strategies for effective utilization of the oceans. E A P I has undertaken a project on Marine En­

vironment and Extended Maritime Jurisdic­tions to study critical transnational resource and environment issues in Southeast Asian seas.

In the early stages of this project, it was de­termined that future oil exploration and devel­opment in the South China Sea could have significant implications for international rela­tions and for environmental quality and the productivity of aquatic resources. Trying to as­sess these implications, it became clear that more had to be learned about the geology and hydrocarbon potential of the South China Sea in order to project activities that might occur in the coming years. E A P I was fortunate in at­tracting Dr. C.Y. L i to the Center as a Fellow to develop activities to address these questions.

In 1980, a first international Workshop was held on this subject. The results were widely disseminated and many recommendations were acted upon. As a follow-up, Dr. L i orga­nized the second Workshop in August 1983. This Workshop was attended by 50 leading authorities and experts drawn from govern­mental and intergovernmental organizations, multinational oil companies, and academic in­stitutions in 12 countries. Persons attended and participated in the meetings in their indi-

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vidual capacities and did not represent or speak for their organizations or countries. The blend of perspectives and expertise at this in­formal meeting resulted in an exchange of in­formation that is generally not possible among such groups, who rarely meet in a neutral ex­ploratory setting.

This report of the Workshop's findings, con­clusions, and recommendations presents the spectrum of views expressed at the meeting. It should not be assumed that every participant

subscribes to every statement, although a broad consensus was reached on most major points.

Through this and future publications and in follow-up meetings, we anticipate that the work begun will continue and reach a wider audience. In this way, we hope we are contrib­uting to a creative resolution of issues that are vital to the national and international interests of countries in the region.

William H. Matthews, Director Environment and Policy Institute

East-West Center

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INTRODUCTION

The East-Wesi Center lias a mandate lor the exchange of cultural and technical knowledge between the East and West. Its Environment and Policy Institute (EAPI) has a program area on Marine Policy and Environment, which has focused primarily on the Southeast Asian Seas in recent years. This program area explores the precedents and possibilities lor joint devel­opment of hydrocarbon potential in the South China Sea in areas of overlapping claims, through research, exchange of information, and the provision of a neutral forum for rele­vant discussions. The two Workshops on Geol­ogy and Hydrocarbon Potential of the South China Sea and Possibilities of Joint Develop­ment were organized for this purpose.

The First Workshop on t he Geology and Hy­drocarbon Potential of the South China Sea and Possibilities of Joint Development was held in August 1980. Some 50 leading authorities and experts f rom countries bordering the South China Sea, academic institutes, and na­tional and multinational companies partici­pated. The proceedings were published as a special issue of Energy (v. 6, n. 11) and as a book by Pergamon Press (Oxford, 1981). That Workshop recommended that a series of fol­low-up meetings be convened on the geologi­cal, technological, environmental, economic, and legal aspects of exploration and exploita­tion of hydrocarbons in the South China Sea. Since the first Workshop, hydrocarbon explo­ration by national and multinational oil com­panies in the South China Sea has reached its highest level, yielding new information about the petroleum geology and potential in the re­gion. Because of these recommendations and the new developments that have taken place

since then, the Environment and Policy Insti­tute (EAPI) of the East-West Center (EWC), af­ter consultation with participants in the first Workshop, decided to convene the second Workshop at the East-West Center in Honolulu on 22-26 August 1983.

In addition to the Committee for Co-ordina­tion o f jo in t Prospecting for Mineral Resources in Asian Offshore Areas (CCOP), which was the cosponsor of the first Workshop, the A S E A N Council on Petroleum (ASCOPE) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Com­mission (IOC) joined ascosponsors for the sec­ond Workshop. This active role was welcome, because A S C O P E consists of five member countries bordering the sea and IOC has long been interested in the marine geology and geophysics of the area, an interest reinforced by IOC's new programs on ocean science in re­lation to nonliving resources.

E A P I has also joined A S C O P E and C C O P in convening two workshops on offshore oil and gas environmental guidelines. Two booklets, one on environmental planning guidelines and the other on technical guidelines, were pub­lished by E A P I . A joint workshop was also or­ganized by the A S C O P E Indonesian Technical Committee and E A P I . Close cooperation among A S C O P E , CCOP, IOC, and E A P I has been established and should be used for fur­ther research, informat ion exchange, and workshops.

The South China Sea and its margins are a frontier in the search for hydrocarbon re­sources. The second Workshop provided the forum for a mutual exchange of updated in­formation. The Workshop not only considered the hydrocarbon potential of the area in gen-

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eral terms but also delineated particular areas with potential. Further, the meeting identified areas where exploration could take place un­der current oil prices and existing technology, and areas that could be developed when econo­mies and technology advance.

Present offshore oil production in the region is f rom water less than 200 meters deep (conti­nental shelf), and there are still a large number of sedimentary basins under the continental shelves waiting to be explored. Thus even un­der current oil prices, prospecting and explo­ration will not be seriously affected. Technol­ogy is advancing rapidly; elsewhere, dril l ing is taking place under water depths of over 2,000 meters. Economics permitting, there is little doubt that dril l ing in the region will move into deeper waters in the search for hydrocarbon resources. When oil prices increase, as many economists have predicted, exploration in deeper waters will follow.

Then the technology and investment of mul­tinational oil companies could play an impor­tant role. Under mutually acceptable condi­tions, the countries bordering the sea welcome the participation of foreign companies in as­sessing, exploring, and producing offshore hy­drocarbon resources. In many areas of the sea with hydrocarbon potential, jur isdict ional claims of countries overlap. For these areas more geological and geophysical data are re­quired, and joint studies, research, and investi­gations would be desirable — for some areas, essential. There are several examples of agree­ments on joint exploration and development between states in such situations, including that between Malaysia and Thailand, and these examples could be examined for further appli­cation in the South China Sea region. Thus the Workshop participants were optimistic con­cerning the offshore hydrocarbon potential in the South China Sea.

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WORKSHOP CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Approximately 50 leading authorities and experts drawn from governmental and inter­governmental organizations, multinational oil companies, and academic institutions in 12 countries participated in this second Work­shop (see Appendix I for List of Participants). Af te r the presentation of the 38 papers sum­marized here, the participants divided into two working groups to formulate conclusions and recommendations (see Appendix 2 for the Workshop Agenda).

The following conclusions and recommen­dations, which reflect a broad but not neces­sarily complete consensus of the participants, are divided into five categories:

1. Offshore oil and gas development and po­tential in areas related to the South China Sea;

2. Marine geology and geophysics of the South China Sea;

3. Implementation of the S E A T A R Pro­gram;

4. Joint development; and 5. Cooperat ion among A S C O P E , C C O P ,

I O C , a n d E A P I / E W C .

Offshore Oil and Gas Development and Potential in Areas Related to the South China Sea

A n assessment of future potential and pro­duction might be conveniently divided into short-term and long-term prospects. In the short term, all countries contain significant po­

tential for developing new prospects; however, the relative estimated magnitude of those pros­pects is in part dependent upon the history of past exploration efforts and the stage of the ex­ploration process in the individual countries.

Offshore China has the greatest potential, and major potential still exists for the Malay Basin, the Natuna Sea and offshore of Sarawak, Brunei, and Sabah. Palawan shelf prospects may be limited unless new play concepts are realized.

The prospects of longer-term potential are dependent not only upon geological factors but on time, economics, and the state of tech­nology. The technology of exploration and de­velopment in deeper waters is being developed elsewhere and could be applied in the South China Sea region.

Significant potential may exist within pres­ently defined areas, particularly in deeper tar­gets, that is, Eo-Oligocene targets within the Malay Basin, Natuna Sea, and offshore of Sa­bah. Potential may exist at depth beneath the Palawan shelf, where older Tertiary carbonates may be tectonically overlain by younger Ter­tiary sediments. The forearc basins of Luzon, as well as other areas of relatively thick sedi­ment deposition in deeper parts of the South China Sea margin, also have potential.

The study of Pre-Tertiary objectives is still in the stage of data collection and it is premature to make an evaluation of Pre-Tertiary poten­tial. Such studies should be encouraged with a view to developing a sound data base for fu­ture evaluation.

Further work and interchange of informa­tion is desirable.

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Marine Geology and Geophysics of the South China Sea

In attempting to reach a better understand­ing of the marine geology and geophysics of the South China Sea, both short-term and long-term programs should be considered. The short-term program should focus on the collection of marine geological and geophysi­cal data in areas that can be developed rou­tinely, using existing technology in the present wor ld economy. T h e long-term program should focus on the collection of marine geo­logical and geophysical data in deep water and frontier areas, for hydrocarbon resources that may be developed when technology and eco­nomics make such ventures feasible.

Important gaps in geophysical data exist for the whole western half of the South China Sea, in particular the deep basin and margins of the southwest sub-basins and the forearc basins, preventing a comprehensive evaluation of the hydrocarbon potential of the South China Sea.

The Workshop noted

• T h e value of the C C O P / A S C O P E / C I R -C U M P A C 1:2,000,000 base map compila­tion;

• The value of the cooperative program be­tween the South China Sea Institute and the University of Tokyo, investigating the bottom-water temperature of and heat flow through the shelf ofTsouthern China;

• The Tertiary age of formation of the north­ern margin of the South China Sea makes it an ideal site to study the processes of conti­nental margin evolution (including subsid­ence and history and thermal and deep crustal structure); and

• The invitation by Indonesian authorities for interested scientists to participate in a five-year program of onland investiga­tions of Kalimantan.

The Workshop recommended that

• CCOP, in cooperation with A S C O P E , initi­ate the compilation of data source maps that will identify the location and types of

existing marine geological and geophysical data;

• Further seismic, gravity, and magnetic pro­fil ing be undertaken to determine the ex­tent and character of sedimentary basins in l he f rontier regions, including deep water regions up to, for example, 3,000 meters;

• Heat-flow studies of the margins of the South China Basin be continued for a comprehensive evaluation of thermal maturation processes associated with hy­drocarbon generation;

• Regional structural and stratigraphic anal­ysis and integrated paleogeographic stud­ies be undertaken to assist in understand­ing basin evolut ion, i n c l u d i n g the reconstruction of the tectonics, paleogeo-graphy, and paleoenvironmenl of coun­tries bordering the South China Sea;

• Correlation of onshore and offshore geol­ogy and well-hole data be continued;

• Onshore studies include paleomagnetic and radiometric age-dating, which consti­tute a critically important element in the understanding of the tectonics of this re­gion;

• Deep-sea dril l ing sites be identified by the Joint CCOP-IOC S E A T A R Working Group and others for cons idera t ion by the J O I D E S planning committee; and

• A l l future work be done in cooperation with countries bordering the South China Sea and those agencies and institutions ac­tively working in the region.

Implementation of the SEATAR Program

Since its beginning in 1973, the Joint CCOP-IOC S E A T A R (Studies in East-Asian Tectonics and Resources) Program has made notable contributions to the knowledge of geology and geophysics of the South China Sea and its sur­rounding seas. Scientific activity under the ae­gis of S E A T A R has declined in recent years, however, largely due to completion of the US . International Decade of Ocean Exploration (IDOE) Program and the resultant withdrawal of continuous funding from the I D O E office.

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Possible scientific ocean dri l l ing by the Inter­national Program of Ocean D r i l l i n g / A d ­vanced Ocean D r i l l i n g Program ( I P O D / A O D P ) could provide a new focus for renewed S E A T A R activity.

The Workshop recommended that

• S E A T A R be cont inued, ind iv idua l re­searchers keep up their work, and bilateral arrangements be made unti l a formal mechanism for renewed coordination of S E A T A R activities within the United States as well as in other countries can be worked out;

• National S E A T A R coordinators be ap­pointed in order to help bring the ongoing S E A T A R Transect Studies to a logical con­clusion and to provide a basis for new re­search initiatives;

• A n overall transect coordinator be identi­fied and appointed;

• A n in te r im regional coord ina to r for S E A T A R be appointed immediately from within the C C O P office;

• IOC provide support to sustain the posi­tion of a regional coordinator within the C C O P office for three to four months a year; and

• Every effor t be made to revitalize the S E A T A R Program to continue to provide a mechanism for international cooperative research in the Southeast Asian region.

Joint Development

Used as a generic term, "joint development" ranges from unitization of shared resources to unilateral development of a shared resource beyond a stipulated boundary, with various gradations in between.

Two major areas of concern were addressed at the Workshop: first, the legal question of what a coastal state can do if there is no agree­ment on the use of the nonliving resources within an area of overlapping claims; and sec­ond, the political factors enhancing or ham­pering the process of reaching agreements on

joint development.

Any kind of joint development has to be based on an agreement between the stales con­cerned. There is a customary rule of interna­tional law requiring states to enter into negoti­ations on joint development involving the exploration and exploitation of the nonliving resources in areas of overlapping claims. Fur­thermore, as there apparently have been no cases of unilateral production by one state in the face of reasonable objection by another claimant, state practice suggests the emer­gence of an evolving rule of customary interna­tional law that prevents claimant states from unilaterally exploiting the resources in areas of overlapping claims. However, only bona fide claims are valid.

Understanding the political factors behind state's practices in joint development could help in achieving more such agreements for ar­eas of overlapping valid claims in the South China Sea. Security considerations play an im­portant role in the reaching of these agree­ments. In Asia, cultural considerations, such as sensitivity about any encroachment on na­tional sovereignty, are also a factor. Different policies and laws of the states, for instance, production-sharing versus concessionary re­gimes, must be integrated.

Several factors influence the degree of coop­eration between states regarding overlapping claim areas with hydrocarbon potential: the character of basic relations between the dispu­tants; the preoccupation of states elsewhere; military capabilities; needs for oil f rom the area; and the degree of knowledge of deposits.

The more these factors reinforce each other in a negative manner between the two coun­tries (e.g., bad relations, focus of attention on the area, unequal military capabilities, press­ing needs for oil , established hydrocarbon po­tential in the area), the greater the likelihood of a low cooperation response. Where there are equally valid claims, a state may opt for joint development because of a sense of ur­gency or obligation to protect its interests in potential deposits, combined with a desire to maintain good relations with the other states.

The states must guarantee stable and se­cure conditions in the area if they want to at-

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tract private capital for exploration, a con­dition that links legal and political issues. Pri­vate risk-capital entrepreneurs may only com­mit their resources to explore and exploit in politically stable situations, such as in agreed joint development areas.

Further research should be done on the fac­tors inducing states to enter into joint develop­ment agreements, and on how specific prob­lems were resolved, looking more closely at the "tricks of the trade."

Cooperation among ASCOPE, CCOP, IOC, and E A P I / E W C

Responding to IOC Resolution E C - X I V 19 and Resolution EC X V . l , the IOC Secretary re­quested the Scientific Committee on Ocean Re­search (SCOR) to prepare a report on "ocean science in relation to non-renewable resources."

That report clearly indicated the importance of hydrocarbon deposits, thus relating to the sub­

ject of this Workshop. SCOR, with the assistance of the Commission on Marine Geology (CMG), compiled proposals for the IOC Programme on Ocean Science and N o n - L i v i n g Resources (OSNLR) that were received with appreciation at the seventh meeting of the IOC General As­sembly (IOC Resolution XI1-2 and Annex). The Programme is expected to be developed and implemented jointly with the UN's Ocean Eco­nomics and Technology Branch (IETB).

A S C O P E and IOC joined C C O P as the co-sponsors of this Workshop, which was orga­nized by the E W C . There is scope for further cooperation among the four organizations in activities of mutual interest, and they should maintain close consultation fo l lowing the meeting and consider the implementation of the Workshop recommendations.

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SUMMARY OF PRESENTATIONS AND DISCUSSIONS

The papers presented at the Workshop are divided into six sections, following the agenda in Appendix 2. The titles of these sections and the papers presented within each section are listed below and then summarized. The pa­pers will be published in ful l later as a special issue of Energy. Publications or reports marked with an asterisk were made available or pre­sented at the meeting but will not be included in the proceedings, because they have already been published elsewhere or are not available.

List of Contributed Papers

Update on Offshore Hydrocarbon Develop­ment and Potential in Countries Bordering the South China Sea

The Characteristics of the Geological Struc­tures of the Tertiary Basins on the Conti­nental Margin in the Northern Part of the South China Sea — Wu Jingmin

A n Overview of the Geology and Hydrocar­bon Prospects in Central and Northern Parts o f the South C h i n a Sea —Wu Jingmin

A Study on the Seismic Waves of the Base­ment of Oil-Bearing Basins off the Pearl River Mouth Region of the South China Sea — X i a Kan Yuan

Geology and Bouguer Gravity Anomalies of Hainan Island and Vicinity —Fan Pow-Foong

The Cenozoic Tectonic Evaluation of Off ­shore Taiwan —Si-Chih Sun

Tertiary Tectonic Evolution and Related Hy­drocarbon Potential in the Natuna Area — Gatot K . W i r o y u d o and A bi rat no Wongsosantiko

Exploration Review and Outlook in the Na­tuna Area —Gatot K. Wiroyudo

The History of Offshore Hydrocarbon Ex­ploration in Malaysia — Nordin Ramli

Petroleum Exploration in Thailand — Pra-kong Polahan

Offshore Hydrocarbon Development and Potential in the G u l f of T h a i l a n d — Charan Achalabhuti

Geology and Geophysics of the South China Sea Area

A Review of Certain Major Tectonic Fea­tures of the Southeast Asian Mainland — Ernest P. Du Bois

Tectonic Development of Kalimantan and Adjacent Areas — H.M.S. Hartono

Pre-Tertiary Hydrocarbon Potential of the South China Sea Region — Maurice Main-guy and Henri Fontaine

Margins of the Southeast Sub-basin of the South China Sea: A Frontier Exploration Target? —Dennis E. Hayes

Methodology of Estimates and Some Assess­ments of Undiscovered Hydrocarbon Re­sources in Selected Areas of the South China Sea —Keith Robinson

Use of Seislog for Basin Evaluation and Field Development — R.C. Mummery

Plate Tectonic Evolution of the Western Pa­cific-Indian Ocean and Bordering Conti­nental Areas —William K. Gealey

Origin and History of the South China Sea Basin — Brian Taylor and Dennis E. Hayes

Structure and Tectonics of the Man i l a Trench System — Dennis E. Hayes and Ste­phen D. Lewis

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Forearc Basin Development along Western Luzon, Philippines — Stephen U Lewis and Dennis E. Hayes

Results of Sonne Cruise SO-23 and SO-27 -H . U Schliiter

O x y g e n Isotope Studies of P lanktonic Foraminifera from the South China Sea Core (V19-134) —Chen Ming-Sue et al.

Joint Studies, Research, and Investigation of the South China Sea

CCOP- IOC Programme on Studies in East Asia Tectonics and Resources — Report by the C C O P Off ice

Report of the Economic Advisory Panel on Mineral and Hydrocarbon Resources — the C C O P Off ice

A S C O P E / C C O P Jo in t P r o g r a m - M . A . Warga-Dalem, A S C O P E

New IOC Programs on Ocean Science in Re­lation to Non-Living Resources — Noriy-ii ki Nasu

Environmental Aspects of Offshore Hydrocar­bon Exploration and Exploitation

Environmental Impact Assessment of Off ­shore Operations: Lessons of a Decade of Experience in the Uni ted Slates, the United Kingdom, and Canada— Gordon Beanlands

Report of ASCOPE's Workshop on Offshore Geological and Natural Environmental Hazards — M . A . Warga-Dalem

South China Sea: Hypothetical O i l Spill Tra­jectories and Transnat ional Impact — Mark J. Valencia, Hira L. Kaul , and Jerry Gal l

Changes in the O i l Market Petroleum Supply and Demand in the Asia-

Pacific Region: Structural Changes, Op­tions, and Vulnerabilities in 1980s — Fe-reidun Fesharaki

Joint Development Arrangements for Joint Development Pend­

ing Resolution of Boundaries — Rainer Lagoni

Southeast Asian Seas: Hydrocarbon Poten­tial and Unresolved Boundaies — Mark J. Valencia

The Malaysian Philosophy of Joint Develop­ment — Datuk Harun A r i f f i n

China's Sovereignty over its Offshore O i l and the New Law of the Sea —Paul C. Yuan

The Japan-South Korea Joint Development Arrangement — Masahiro Miyoshi

The Norway-Iceland Arrangement for Jan Mayen — Willy Ostreng

A Case Study in Joint Development: The Partitioned Neutral Zone (Saudi Arab ia / Kuwait) — William T. Onorato

Ber ing Sea Petroleum: A New Meeting Ground by the Soviet Union and the United Slates — Robert Krueger

Update on Offshore Hydrocarbon Develop­ment and Potential in Countries Bordering the South China Sea (Papers 1-10)

A l l countries bordering the South China Sea except Kampuchea, Singapore, and Vietnam now have offshore hydrocarbon production. Singapore is shelf-locked with a small offshore area and has no offshore hydrocarbon poten­tial. In all other countries more offshore dis­coveries are expected (Table 1), and the region as a whole is likely to be a major world oil pro­ducer. As prospecting and exploration pro­ceed, production from the offshore area will be increasingly important, and in some countries the sole source of production.

Brunei

Brunei has been and remains an important oil exporter. With daily production at 155,000 barrels and domestic consumption of around 10,000 barrels, Brunei exported an average of 145,000 barrels per day in 1982, an amount comparable to that exported f rom Malaysia. Potential still exists offshore of Brunei.

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Table 1. Offshore Hydrocarbon Production and Reserves in Countries Bordering the South China Sea as ofJanuary 1983

Reserves (Estimated

Cumulative Ultimate Remaining Production Production Recoverable) Reserves

Country/Basin Oil Gas Oil Gas Oil Gas Oil Gas (thousand (million cubic (billion (trillion (billion (trillion (billion (trillior

barrels feet per day) barrels) cubic ft) barrels) cubic ft) barrels) cubic fi per day)

Brunei Baram Delia 166 900 1.4 p 29-34 12.5 2 6.8

China _ _ _ _ ? p p ?

Southeast Hainan - - - 10 p 10 p Pearl River - - - - "sizable" p "sizable" p Taiwan Area - - - - p p p p

Indonesia l,300b p 9.9b ? 107a 43.4 277.5

Kampuchia - - - - p p p p

Malaysia (total) 301.9 136 p p p p 23 49 West

Malay 128.2 - .77 - 10 6.615 7 p East

Sabah 68.7 p - .2 Sarawak ) Baram 105 p p p 16

Balingian - - - - Minor -C. Luconia - - - Minor is ;

Philippines Palawan 7 - .015 - .050 - .035 .016 Reed Bank - - - - - Minor - -

Thailand (total) 5 130 - 13 .030 14.9 ? p Malay Basin - - - - - 7.2 p ?

Vietnam _ _ _ _ p ? ? p

Sources: Ernest P. Du Bois, personal communication, 1983; Shell Brunei; T.D. Adams (SEAPEX); Petroleum News, January 1983; Petroleum Economist, December 1981; N. Ramli, Pelronas; Oil and Gas Journal, 27 December 1982.

a Barrels of oil equivalent. h Land and sea. ? = Amount unknown. - — None.

China

China remains the leading producer of pe­troleum in East Asia (Figures 1 and 2). Its daily production has been stable at 2 million barrels during the last few years; however, that pro­

duction has come from land. Since the first Workshop, intensive and extensive surveys by Chinese experts, sometimes in cooperation with foreign companies, have continued off­shore. In the northern part of the South China Sea, a series of sedimentary basins have been

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Fig. 7. Cenozok sediment thickness in the northern part of the South China Sea, (From Wu Jingmin, The characteristics of the geological structures of Tertiary basins on the continental margin in the northern part of the South China Sea.)

Fig. 2. Distribution of Tertiary basins in the northern part of the South China Sea. (From Wu Jingmin, The characteristics of the geological structures of the Tertiary basins on the continental margin in the northern part of the South China Sea.)

found, for example, the Bcibu Gu l l Basin, the Yinggchai Basin, the Xisha Trough Basin, the Oliongdongnan (Sout heast Hainan) Basin, and the Pearl River Mouth Basin. In the first three basins, commercial oil deposits have been dis­covered. Seismic re I lection surveys indicate that there are Tertiary basins oft shore of Tai­wan to the west and north but, aside from mi­nor gas deposits in the west, no discovery has yet been reported.

Joint geophysical prospect ing bet ween China and foreign companies in the northern part of the South China Sea began in 1979, when China signed agreements with a large number o f fore ign companies, inc lud ing A R C O , A M O C O , Mobil, ESSO, Chevron, Tex­aco, and Phillips. Seismic investigations on scales of 1:200,000 to 1:500,000 were con­ducted. From 1979 to 1980, the South China Sea Geological Investigation Headquarters of the Minis t ry of Geology and Minera l Re­sources and the Lamont-Doheny Geological Observatory of the University of Columbia car­ried out a comprehensive marine geophysical investigation in an area of about 470,000 km' J

in the central and northern parts of the South China Sea. From 1980 to 1982, an integrated geophysical survey on a scale of 1:1,000,000 was conducted in the area north of I0°N. The results of these surveys, together with drilling, have proved that there is great hydrocarbon potential in the northern part of the South China Sea.

The joint Chinese-TOTAL (Fiance) under­taking in the Beibu Gu l f Basin started drilling a few years ago, and the joint Chinese-ARCO (US.) company has also begun drilling in the Yinggehai Basin. In both areas, oil or gas have been discovered. Recently China also awarded contracts to four international groups led by British Petroleum, Occidental, ESSO, and Shell.

Indonesia

Indonesia, being a member of OPEC, has to follow the production quota allotted to it, which is 1.3 million barrels per day. Neverthe­less, it is still the second largest producer in East Asia af terChina. O f the total production,

35 percent comes from offshore; this percent­age is likely to increase, particularly with the expected increase in production from the Na-t una area.

In the Natuna area, three major tectonic ele­ments can be recognized: the West Natuna Ba­sin, the East Natuna Basin, and the Natuna arch. The arch is a NNYV-SSE-trending base­ment high and effectively separates the two ba­sins. The hydrocarbon potential of the West Natuna Basin is enhanced by the presence of local thick sequences of both Oligocene and Miocene sediments that may be good source and reservoir rocks.

In the East Natuna Basin, sedimentation also started in Oligo-Miocene time. In the western part of the basin, the oldest sediments consist of clastic materials deposited in fluvial-liuoral shore-face environments, whereas in the eastern part, inner-middle nerttic facies are developed. During Middle Lale Miocene time, extensive shell carbonates were depos­ited in the north-central part of the basin, while elsewhere ncritic clastic sediments are predominant. Marine clastic sediments were deposited continuously until Pleistocene lime. The carbonate and shallow marine sediments are considered lo be the main hydrocarbon source rock. Based on heat-flow data, the cen­tral parts of the northern and southern por­tions of the East Naiuna Basin are potential targets for further hydrocarbon exploration. From 1980 lo 1982, 40 new exploration wells were drilled and 10,000 km of seismic line shot in the area.

Indonesia welcomes foreign companies to deal with the geologic uncertainties inherent in exploration decisions. Since decisions in ex­ploration ventures involve the basin's geology, joint study by the government and foreign companies on the basin level could be consid­ered. These joint efforts may reduce invest­ment risks in the basin and could be a common investment incentive.

Malaysia

Malaysia's hydrocarbon production comes entirely from the offshore area. Average daily

14

production of oil in 1983 was about 300,000 barrels. The Malaysian offshore area covers a tolal of about 364,450 km 2 , of" which 264,000 km" is made up of continental shelf (water depth less than 200 m) and the remaining 99.500 km 2 (or 27 percent) of deep water areas with depths of up lo more than 2,000 m. The continental shelf is underlain by thick Tertiary sedimentary sequences and occupies a signifi­cant portion of the Sunda Shelf, one of the largest continuous shallow water areas in the world. Exploration and production have been concentrated mainly in three major sedimen­tary basins: the Malay Basin, the Sarawak Ba­sin, and the Sabah Basin.

Although it is likely that most of the large oil and gas f ields in Malaysia have been discovered, prospects for additional petroleum discoveries appear excellent. The deep water areas offshore of Sabah and Sarawak have no seismic or well coverage and their potential is relatively un­known. However, a gas discovery was made off­shore of Sabah from a well drilled in 593 ft of water. Offshore ol Sarawak, a well drilled in 500 ft of water showed oil and gas potential. The ac­quisition of high-quality seismic data for these areas will assist in delineating the sedimentary thickness and possible plays.

Thailand

Since the discovery of the commercial gas/ condensate deposits in the G u l f of Thailand reported to the f irst Workshop, dril l ing of ex­ploratory, delineation, and production wells in the gulf has increased. As of June 1983, over 100 wells had been drilled, with a success ratio of about 1 to 2: only a few holes were recorded as totally dry. The seven commercial gas/con­densate fields discovered are estimated to con­tain at least 16 trillion f t 3 of wet gas and 100 million barrels of condensate. Besides these seven f ields, several prospects await f urther in­vestigation: a few have been drilled and gas/ condensate discovered.

As o f j u n e 30, 1983, the total cumulative gas and condensate production from the Erawan f ie ld , which is the only producing f ield at present, was 80,355 million f t 3 of and 3,533

barrels of condensate. In the early production stage, several engineering and geological prob­lems were encountered. Producible sand reser­voirs are Upper to Middle Miocene and possi­bly Oligocene in age. The sand bodies are somewhat discontinuous and lenticular and highly faulted, thus reducing the drainage areas. The high bottom-hole temperatures caused some packer failures, leading to the shut-in of several wells for workover and re­ducing the number of new completion wells drilled. In spite of the problems encountered in the early production of the Erawan gas field, the Gu l f of Thailand as a whole still has great potential for future development.

The Andaman Sea side of Thailand awaits exploration, and the Tha i government has in­vited petroleum companies to submit applica­tions for exploration and production there. Another significant development is in explora­tion for oil and gas on land. Tha i Shell is cur­rently conducting further seismic work to map structures in SukhoThai, Pichit, and Phitsanu-loke provinces, while Esso Exploration and Production Khorat Inc. had two major gas dis­coveries in northeastern Thailand.

The Philippines

In comparison with offshore oil production and potential in the other five countries, hy­drocarbon prospects here are still uncertain. For the year up to September 1982, 2,255 km of seismic lines were shot, of which 73 percent (1,641.5 km) were offshore. Fourteen wells were drilled, ten offshore. Principal areas of ac­tivity were offshore of Palawan and Mindoro, and onshore in central Luzon.

Kampuchea and Vietnam

There are no known offshore survey and prospecting activities in Kampuchea. A n off­shore oil strike was made in February 1975 by Mobil, with a flow rate of 2,400 barrels a day. There is reported Soviet assistance in pros­pecting for hydrocarbons in Vietnam. Little current information is available, but geologists believe there is hydrocarbon potential off­shore of northern and southern Vietnam.

15

Geology and Geophysics of the South China Sea Area (Papers 11-22)

Since the first Workshop, new information has become available for the land bordering the South China Sea and for the Sea itself. The new information sometimes yields divergent views. Many of the plate tectonic solutions may be valid for offshore regions, but similar solu­tions may not be valid for the continental do­main. Divergent views are welcome, because they will lead to further studies and investiga­tions and result in a better understanding of the geology and geophysics of these areas, which helps in the search for hydrocarbon po­tential. It is apparent that the oceanic areas cannot be considered in isolation from the con­tinental areas. Both regions must be consid­ered together and the ultimate tectonic solu­tions must take into account the tectonic history of both onshore and offshore areas.

Geology on Land

Major features having stratigraphic and tec­tonic implications include (1) the northwest-southeast fault zones of Vietnam, (2) the Yun­nan-Malaya "geosyncline," and (3) the Pak Lay-Luang Prabang and Petchabun folds in Laos and Thailand. The northwest-southeast-trending lineaments of Southeast Asia, for ex­ample, the Red River Fault Zone, represent a fundamental feature of the Earth's crust that considerably predates the "collision" between Indonesia and the Southeast China Platform (Southeast China Block).

The principal tectonic characteristics and features of the Yunnan-Malaya geosyncline seem to have been established in Early Pa­laeozoic time and to have had a persistent effect on the geology and topography of Southeast Asia into Tertiary time. The Pak Lay-Luang Prabang and Petchabun fold belts in Laos and Thailand represent two tectonic styles, one striking N-S and the other NW-SE. They contact each other most notably in the right-lateral-transcurrent Dien Bien Phu Fault in the vicinity of 99° N, 103° E. Both tectonic

"sets" are still active, as indicated by recent movements and topographic features.

Hainan Island

Hainan Island is located in the southern part of the South China Block. This block con­sists of the Caledonian South China Fold belt and the Variscan Southeastern Maritime Fold-belt along the coast of the East and South China seas. Northern Hainan Island is part of the South China Foldbelt and central and southern Hainan Island is part of the South­eastern Marit ime Foldbelt. Dur ing Triassic time (the Indosinian Movement) the Indo­china Block converged toward and eventually coalesced with the China Block. Duringjuras-sic and Cretaceous time (the Yenshanian Move­ment), a northwest-dipping subduction zone developed on the southeastern margins of the Indochina and South China blocks. Yensha­nian intrusives are present in Hainan Island and extend as a magmatic arc across the C h i ­nese continental shelf to the west of Taiwan.

Five Bouguer anomaly zones are recognized in Hainan Island. The anomalies in northern and northeastern Hainan Island are due to the thickness of Neogene and Quaternary sedi­ments there, and anomalies in central, north­western, and southeastern Hainan Island re­flect the Variscan tectonic pattern of the region. T h e Bouguer anomalies increase southward from —20 mgl along the coast to + 50 mgl near the edge of the continental shelf, and from +50 mgl to +220 mgl from the con­tinental slope to the abyssal basin.

Kalimantan

A n important tectonic event for Kalimantan occurred in the late Triassic period, when Kal i ­mantan was cratomized and stabilized by tec­tonic processes related to collision and south Kalimantan became a platform. This event could be correlated with the Indosinian orog­eny. Post-Late Triassic deposition could either be platform cover or active marginal accretion. Platform cover occurs in central, south, and

16

southeast Kalimantan; marginal development took place northward, eastward, and south­ward. T h e northward development ceased during Late Miocene time, whereas develop­ment to the south and east continues.

Pre-Tertiary Hydrocarbon Potential

For the first time in Southeast Asia, hydro­carbons have been found in rocks of Permian age, that is, the two gas discoveries in north­eastern Thailand. This is a clear encourage­ment to put more emphasis on Permian forma­tions. From available data, Permian rocks are widespread from South China to Sumatra and f rom Thailand to the Philippines and Taiwan. Its facies include limestones as a neritic envi­ronment, and coal has been reported in several places. With the exception of Taiwan, the Per­mian is generally unmetamorphosed, thick, in many cases only gently folded, and includes possible source beds.

Plate Tectonic Evolution of Southeast Asia

Marine magnetic anomalies, information f rom deep-sea drill holes, and regional geology indicate that consolidation of continental pieces from Condwanaland formed the core area of China and Southeast Asia during the Indosinian orogeny near the end of Triassic time. A major change in plate boundaries and motions about 50 m.y. B.P. resulted in interac­tion between the Southeast Asian, Australian, and Pacific plates, leading to the complex con­figuration of island arcs, marginal basins, and continental fragments that characterizes the present western Pacific region (Figure 3).

A number of problems remain to be solved, such as the precise position of Indosinian su­tures and their subduction polarities, the pre­cise timing of the collisions, the amount of strike-slip movement of various portions of China and Southeast Asia resulting from the collision and northward drive of India, and resolution of the sequence of evolution of the complex arc assemblage that forms the present Philippine archipelago.

The South China Sea

The South China Sea Basin is a small "Atlan­tic-type" basin bounded by passive, r if led, con­tinental margin blocks both to the north and to the south. The nature of the western margin is poorly known, but it is presumed to be primar­ily a sheared transform margin. The eastern margin is an active collisional boundary where the Philippine assemblage of island arcs is presently overriding the subducting South China Sea oceanic lithosphere. The southern margin of mainland China and the northern margin of the Reed Bank and adjacent blocks represent the boundaries between normal oce­anic crust and subsided transitional crust that has been rifted and thinned.

The deeper-ocean basin area in the western half of the South China Sea is much narrower than that of the eastern half. Furthermore, the characteristic seaflooi-spreading magnetic lin-eations mapped in the eastern sub-basin cannot be extended with any confidence into the west­ern sub-basin. Although there is a clear indica­tion of a change in the trend of the basement relief between the two sub-basins, there is no apparent structural discontinuity in the deep water portion of the sub-basins. Any plausible reconstruction of the South China Sea Basin to its pre-drifl configuration creates a significant overlap of the inferred zones of transitional crust bordering the western sub-basin.

The constraints imposed by plate-tectonic models, together with the limited information on the evolution of the north-south margins of the eastern sub-basin, can be used to predict some key characteristics of the north-south margins of the western sub-basin. The anoma­lous crustal extension inferred for the western half of the basin leads to speculation on nu­merous rift basins and their associated sedi­ments that may have been subjected to unusual thermal conditions that would be favorable for the "early" maturation of hydrocarbons. A l ­though this region remains virtually unex­plored, this analysis suggests it should be one focus for frontier exploration.

17

00

Fig. 3. Tectonic map showing the age of the ocean floor. Patterned areas identified as follows: J -Jurassic, Early Cretaceous (Neocomian-Berriasian), Kqz -Cretaceous Quiet Zone (Aptian-Coniacian), Ks-m, Late Cretaceous (Santonian-Maestrichtian), Tp -Paleocene, Te —Eocene, To -Oligocene, Tm-p—Miocene-Pliocene, Q-Quaternary. The numbers indicate the magnetic anomalies used as age boundaries. The toothed line indicates active subduction zone, with the teeth on the upper plate. The line with Xs indicates an active magmatic belt. The line with short bars indicates sutures separating ancient plates used in subsequent reconstructions. (From E.S. Parker and W.K. Gealey, Plate Tectonic evolution of the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean regions.)

Structure and Tectonics of the Manila Trench System

The oceanic lithosphere of the South China Sea is being subducted beneath Luzon along the Manila Trench. The trench axis is between 4,000 m and 6.000 m in depth and can be mapped from about 13° N to 20° N along west­ern Luzon. The Luzon trough forearc basin system lies landward of the Manila Trench, bounded on its seaward Hank by a well-devel­oped accretionary prism. The uplifted Zam-bales ophiolitc and its offshore extension form the landward side of the forearc basin system along Luzon. North of Lingayen Gulf, a num­ber of fault zones trend offshore from north­ern Luzon and disrupt the forearc in this re­gion. Interaction of a seamount chain present on the South China Sea plate with the Luzon forearc has caused localized faulting and up­lift within a narrow zone. This uplifted block, called Stewart Bank, divides the forearc basin system into two basins: the North Luzon Trough and the West Luzon Trough.

Folding and faulting of up to 3 km of trench sediment f i l l accompanies the offscraping and accretion of this material to the overriding plate along the entire length of the Manila Trench. Although the rate of uplift clue to sub­duction accretion appears to be highly variable along the trench, no evidence suggests any epi­sodes of large-scale subsidence of the forearc region. The major decollement between ac­creted and subducted material forms within the sediment fil l of the Manila Trench, indica­ting that some f raction of the sediment overly­ing oceanic crust is subducted.

Regional tectonic constraints indicate that subduction at the Manila Trench probably be­gan in Late Oligocene or Early Miocene time. A rapid pulse of uplift experienced by the Zambales ophiolite may be tectonically related to the beginning of subduction in the Manila Trench. Simple mass/sediment balance calcu­lations suggest that the convergence rate along the Manila Trench may have varied signifi­cantly since the inception of subduction.

The Dangerous Ground

As a contribution of the Federal Republic of Germany to the S E A T A R Program, the Fed­eral Institute of Geosciences and Natural Re­sources, in cooperation with the Philippine Bu­reau of Mines and Geosciences, carried out Sonne Cruises SO-23 (1982) and SO-27 in the southeastern part of the South China Sea in 1983. Multichannel seismic reflection mea­surements were made in parallel with mag­netic, gravity, and sea-bottom measurements on 50 lines with a total length of 10,700 km.

Five unconformities of regional extent are recognized in the study area: (1) a Miocene-Pliocene unconformity, (2) a Middle Miocene unconformity that coincides with the end of seafloor spreading in the South China Sea Ba­sin, (3) an Early Miocene unconformity that often marks the end of carbonate build-up in the South China Sea, (4) a Middle-Upper O l i ­gocene unconformity marking the transition from rift ing to drif t ing in the South China Sea, and (5) a Paleocene-Upper Cretaceous uncon­formity interpreted as the onset of rifting.

The sediments of the Miocene-Oligocene carbonate platform are bounded by uncon­formities and extend f rom the Dangerous Ground to beneath central and southern Pala­wan. They are overlain by a chaotic wedge about 10 km thick, hitherto interpreted as a subduction-related accretionary wedge. Ac­cording to the Sonne data, this wedge is ex­posed on central and southern Palawan and is an allochthonous mass or a nappe overthrust onto the edge of the carbonate platform of the Dangerous Grounds/Calamian-Palawan mi-crocontinent. The Ulugan Bay fault is thought to form the northern front of this nappe.

Planktonic Foraminifera from the South China Sea Core V19-134

Oxygen isotope analyses have been per­formed on foraminifera in a piston core, V19-134, taken in the South China Sea. The result shows that different foraminifera species f rom

19

Table 2. Assessment of Undiscovered Crude Oil in Some Countries Bordering the South China Sea*

USGS Assessment Play Analysis Country Mode Mean (50% probability)

Thailand 0.5 1.0 0.1 W. Malaysia 1.3 20 1.4 E. Malaysia 4.1 6.0 2.2

and Brunei Indonesia 9.2 15.5 NA Offshore China

& China Sea Area 6.0 7.8 7.1 (4.0)b

E. China Sea Area 1.1 2.0 1.6 Vietnam 3.0 39 NA

a Oil in billions of barrels per day. b 4.0 assumes oil con fined to deeper grabens with greater than 2 km sediment cover. NA = Not available.

Table 3. Assessment of Undiscovered Natural Gas in Some Countries Bordering the South China Sea"

USGS Assessment Play Analysis Country Mode Mean (50% probability)

Thailand 17.3 20.7 16.8 W. Malaysia 12.7 17.2 17.0 E. Malaysia 40.8 63.1 46.0

and Brunei Indonesia 25.1 42.2 NA Offshore China

S. China Sea Area 30.9 41.0 21.1 E. China Sea Area 12.9 194 4.9

a Gas in trillions of cubic feet. NA = Not available.

the same sediment have different l 8 0 / l 6 0 ra­tios. The variation is closely related to paleocli-matic change. Owing to the scarcity of the oxy­gen isotope data and the lack of absolute dating, precise ages of these different climatic stages cannot be determined in this core.

Assessment of Undiscovered Recoverable Hydrocarbon Resources (Papers 15- 16)

The proceedings of a seminar on the meth­odology of assessment of undiscovered hydro­carbon resources issued by the C C O P office was distributed to the meeting. The results of basic play analysis and assessments of undis­

covered oil and gas resources in areas border­ing the South China Sea are summarized in Ta­bles 2 and 3.

In the last few years, interest has developed in using seismic data not only to map struc­tural features but as a means of determining the nature of the subsurface stratigraphy. A method has been developed to convert seismic traces into a series of synthetic sonic logs. These logs, called SEISLOGS, have a vertical axis in depth facilitating integration with sonic logs. A primary application of the S E I S L O G S is the delineation of productive units in the subsurface. Secondary applications include l i -thology and facies distributions in basin evalu-

20

ation studies. The method has been applied in surveys in offshore Malaysia in the Natuna Sea area and in the G u l f of Thailand.

Joint Studies, Research, and Investigation of the South China Sea Area (Papers 23-26)

To ascertain the hydrocarbon potential of a geologically complex area like the South China Sea requires joint studies, research, and inves­tigations by countries bordering the sea. In­deed, it is through such undertakings that joint development can be encouraged. Such cooper­ative efforts have been undertaken and are be­ing continued through the sponsorship of a number of regional and international bodies, in particular the A S E A N Council on Petro­leum (ASCOPE), the United Nations Develop­ment Program's (UNDP) Regional Project on Offshore Prospecting in East Asia, and the In­tergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) WESTPAC. E A P I has also contributed a number of relevant studies and provided a fo­rum for discussions.

ASCOPE/CCOPJoint Program

The need for close cooperation among the A S E A N member countries in petroleum mat­ters resulted in the formation of A S C O P E in October 1975. A S C O P E consists of the na­tional oi l companies or agencies of the five A S E A N countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thai land . A l l A S E A N member countries border the South China Sea, and their cooperation, through A S C O P E , contributes to a better understand­ing of its geology and hydrocarbon potential.

These countries are also members of the Committee for Co-ordination of Joint Pros­pecting in Asian Offshore Areas (CCOP), an intergovernmental body supported by U N D P through its Regional Offshore Prospecting Project. C C O P also includes China, Kampu­chea, and Vietnam as members. It is thus an important body for promoting the search for and development of hydrocarbon resources in the South China Sea, as it provides a linkage

between countries bordering the northern and southern part of the sea.

A number of joint programs have been and are being carried out by A S C O P E and CCOP. These include stratigraphic correlation, a pe­troleum data bank, marine environmental protection, and geothermometry and heat-flow studies. A number of joint seminars and workshops have also been held, including one on methodology for assessment of undiscov­ered recoverable hydrocarbon resources and another on hydrocarbon prospects in carbon­ate formations. Among the important publica­tions in preparation by A S C O P E (with the help of C C O P ) relevant to the hydrocarbon re­sources of the South China Sea are "Tertiary Sedimentary Basins in the Offshore A S E A N areas" and "Tertiary Sedimentary Basins of the Sulu Sea, Celebes Sea, and Macassar Straits."

CCOP/IOC's SEATAR Program

C C O P and IOC Joint Programs on S E A T A R (Studies in East-Asian Tectonics and Resources) have yielded much of the current geological and geophysical information on the South China Sea and its bordering countries and have thus led to a better understanding of metallifer­ous ore and hydrocarbon genesis in the area. The program was initiated at the 1972 session of CCOP. In a joint workshop convened by C C O P and IOC in 1973, a basic framework for S E A T A R was formulated. Projects agreed on included investigations along six transects, each cutting across the island arc systems from the ocean basins to the continents and crossing a di­versity of tectonic elements. Research along the transects was multidisciplinary, including both land and marine studies and involving most countries bordering the Gu l f of Thailand and the South China Sea. A number of technical publications are now available providing the results of the surveys.

The S E A T A R program began during the period of the International Decade of Ocean Explorat ion ( IDOE) f r o m 1971-1980. As I D O E was originally proposed by the late U.S. President Lyndon Johnson, the National Sci-

21

ence Foundation (NSF) of the United States provided funds for American research vessels to undertake expeditions in the South China Sea. At one time there were ten research ves­sels (not all f rom the U.S.) directly or indirectly related to S E A T A R criss-crossing the sea.

With the end of I D O E program in 1980 funding ceased and the S E A T A R program has suffered; however, some countries bordering the South China Sea have obtained survey ves­sels of their own, and some developed coun­tries, particularly the Federal Republic of Ger­many, have continued to survey the area.

The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)

As an intergovernmental body, IOC has al­ways maintained an interest in the South China Sea and has joined C C O P in cospon-soring the S E A T A R Program. This interest was reinforced by the adoption of resolution X I I -2, "Ocean Science in Relation to Non-Living Resources (OSNLAR) , " at the twelfth session of the IOC Assembly. At that session a proposal on the subject was presented, prepared at IOC's request by the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) with the assistance of the Commission for Marine Geology (CMG).

The report, received with appreciation by IOC, covers a wide field. O f particular impor­tance to the Workshop was its detailed account of subsurface hydrocarbon deposits, including subsections on hydrocarbon potential, reser­voir and cap-rocks, basin modeling, matura­tion, and gas clathrates. The report states that about 600 basins with thick sediments have been ident if ied worldwide by geophysical methods and drilling, and that 40 percent of the probed basins contain recoverable hydro­carbons. About 200 basins have not yet been drilled, and most are located offshore. Giant fields have been found in 75 basins to date, and such fields can be expected offshore of continents that show high sedimentation and subsidence rates, while small pelagic basins seem to be less prospective. Research on hy­drocarbon resources in the marine environ­ment in the near future will extend out to the

deeper-water areas along the continental mar­gins, beyond those areas currently being ex­plored by the oil companies.

Environmental Aspects of Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration and Exploitation (Papers 27-29)

The approaches of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada to environmen­tal impact assessment for offshore develop­ments, inc lud ing types o f regulatory ap­proaches, allocation of responsibilities, and expectations, were compared. Open-ocean marine systems are highly dynamic, and their natural variability places serious constraints on the ability to predict and measure the environ­mental consequences of offshore develop­ments. There is increasing evidence that, ex­clusive of major oi l spills, the short-term biological effects of operating oil and gas facili­ties offshore under existing regulations and state-of-the-art technology are minimal and confined to the immediate vicinity of the facili­ties. The longer-term effects of oil and gas pro­duction facilities on marine biota are largely unknown, and monitoring programs designed to detect subtle cumulative impacts should be conducted over the life of the facilities. Con­ducting environmental studies offshore is an expensive, lime-consuming, and technically demanding task that requires the best com­bined efforts of industry and government.

A S C O P E held a workshop on Technical As­pects of Offshore Geologic and Natural Envi­ronmental Hazards in Jakarta March 29 -30 , 1983. Topics addressed included the back­ground of offshore environmental hazards, methods for f ield and laboratory investiga­tions, and case studies from the region. That workshop recommended that (1) geologic and environmental hazards in offshore operations should be considered and studied more care­fully to avoid accidents, (2) obtaining the data needed for preventive measures requires mul-tidisciplinary organizations and regional and interdisciplinary workshops can be used for this purpose, and (3) A S C O P E should accept

22

Table 4. Current and Future Scenarios of Oil Production, Consumption, and Trade in the Asia-Pacific Region"

1982 1990 Item Production Consumption Exports/ Production Consumption Exports/

Imports Imports

Net Oil Exporters Indonesia 1,341 480 861 1,800 612b 1,188 Malaysia 306 145 161 400 182 218 Brunei 155 10 145 250 20 230 Burma 27 23 4 60 34 26 China 2,020 1,720 300 4,000 3,500 500

Net Oil Importers Philippines'1 7 193 -186 40 300 -260 Thailand* 5 203 -198 60 280 -220 Hong Kong - 133c -133 c - 260 -260 Japan 6 4,241 -4,235 6 4,300 -4,294 South Korea - 472 -472 - 670 -670 Taiwan 3 347c -344 c 3 400 -397 Singaporer - 180 -180 - 180 -180 India 384 706 -322 700 1,100 -400 Pakistan 12 100 -88 30 140 -110 Sri Lanka - 27c -27 c - 33 -33 Bangladesh - 24c -24 c - 52 -52

T O T A L 4,266 9,004 -4,738 7,349 12,063 -4,714

Sources: OPEC Downstream Project Data System, Asian Development Bank, Oil and Gas Journal, Caltex, unpublished government reports, and personal enquiries.

a Oil in thousands of barrels per day. b Excluding oil industry use and bunkering of50,000-100,000 b/d. c 1980or 1981 data. d Oil production in Philippines rose to 30,000 b/d in 1979, but declined later due to technical problems of

Midde field. e Oil production expected to reach 20,000 b/d by 1983. f Includes refinery fuels and bunkering. Own consumption around 80,000 b/d.

input from institutions to initiate regional co­operations on the subject.

Hypothetical oil spill trajectories were pre­sented from six point sources: Bach Ho, Nido, CPC F-l Wellsite, south of Hainan, Tapis, and Tembungo. A large oil spill at most of the sam­ple sites could cross newly proclaimed interna­tional boundaries and have impacts on valu­able and vulnerable marine resources (Figures 4 and 5). Such information is useful for contin­gency planning.

Changes in the Oil Market (Paper 30)

The two oil price revolutions of the 1970s have been followed by the counterrevolution of 1980-1983. A change in market psychology has taken place. The market now believes that OPEC nations are resolved to respect produc­tion quotas and official prices. The oil market is expected to continue to strengthen, and average OPEC prices are expected to rise a little above present. By 1990, real oil prices equal to 1980-

25

Table 5. Scenarios of Oil Supply and Demand*

Scenario I11 1 % Growth

Item I983b

Scenario I 1 % Annual

Growth

Scenario 11 2% Annual

Growth

1983-90 2 % Growth 1990-2000 Item I983b

1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000

World Oil Demand 44.7 48.2 53.0 52.0 62.6 48.2 5H.7

Oil Supplies Non-OPEC c 24.7 25.5 26.5*' 25.5 26.5d 25.5 2G.5d

Required OPEC Crude Output 17.4 21.5 25.0 25.0 33.1 21.5 29.2

O P E C N G L 0.9 1.2 15.0 15.0 3.0 1.2 3.0 Inventory Change (1-7) - - - - - -

A Oil in million barrels per day. b Projected (see Table 1). c Includes 100,000 b/d of net CPE as well as processing gains and synthetics for 1990 and 2000 d Mean of expected output of 25.5 to 27.5.

1981 levels are predicted. For the longer term, Less-Developed Country (LDC) demand is ex­pected to lead to a growth in world oil demand; in the 1990s a tight market will put great up­ward pressure on prices (Tables 4 and 5).

Joint Development (Papers 31 -38)

Two legal problems offer a frame of refer­ence for the discussion of states' behavior re-garding joint development.

International law requires states having overlapping claims to negotiate in good faith with regard to provisional arrangements of a practical nature. Such arrangements could mean joint development of the nonliving re­sources within the area of overlapping claims. If states cannot agree on provisional arrange­ments, however, there is an emerging rule of genera] international law that they must not unilaterally proceed to exploit the nonliving resources of the area in dispute. Thus marine scientific research and exploration, including seismic exploration, within the overlapping claims would be allowed, but the erection of permanent structures or the dri l l ing of wells

would not. For these rules to apply all claims to the area must be bona fide.

Geological information on and international relations in the areas of overlapping claims provide the background for legal delibera­tions. Areas that are candidates for joint devel­opment in the South China Sea might include Vietnam-Kampuchea in the eastern G u l f of Thai land, the Dangerous Ground, and the area claimed by both Indonesia and Australia on the Ara fu ra shelf. Eventually, joint arrange­ments between Vietnam and Indonesia and Vietnam and Thailand may be possible (Fig­ure 6). However, willingness to come to terms may be lacking in the current atmosphere in the region.

Thailand and Malaysia are already in the process of implementing a joint development arrangement for their area of overlap in the southwestern G u l f of Thailand. Pragmatism, consonant national interests, such as the im­portance of hydrocarbons to each of the na­tions, and a willingness to cooperate were fac­tors in arriving at a joint development scheme between these two nations.

China has laid claim to much of the South

26

China Sea. Cultural factors, such as the Chi­nese need for sovereignty over natural re­sources rooted in its unfortunate history of having been victimized by the colonialist coun­tries, would be important in exploring a joint development arrangement. China may opt for joint development as stipulated in the new LOS Convention (Articles 74 and 83, para­graph 3), which calls for temporarily putting aside the sensitive problem of territorial sover­eignty to pool efforts to develop offshore min­eral resources for the common good of all countries involved. Another alternative is for China to explore and develop petroleum re­sources in undisputed nearshore waters, taking care not to get too close to possible eventual international boundaries.

The Japan-South Korea joint development arrangement sets an interesting precedent in East Asia, as does the recommendation by the conciliation commission for a joint develop­ment scheme for the Jan Mayen area between Iceland and Norway. The latter case shows the importance of the security aspect and mu­tual dependence in arriving at a joint develop­ment solution. Conflicts over resource sharing are not themselves an obstacle to the establish­ment of joint development areas but rather might be a prerequisite, since they are an indi­

cation of interdependence. Conciliation com­missions can be a useful aid, providing the ba­sis for governmental policymaking and defusing politically flammable questions dur­ing the exploratory stage of setting upjoint de­velopment agreements.

The Partitioned Neutral Zone between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait was the first success­ful joint resource development arrangement between two countries. It has been functioning smoothly for over 20 years based on the Is­lamic idea of common ownership and the good relations between the two nations. This case suggests that private oil firms could be allowed to act as go-betweens if they were willing to work at their own risk and initiative to achieve joint development. These oil firms would need to formulate their operating agreements not only to suit their own requirements but also those of the governments concerned.

Although national security issues raise ques­tions of whether and at what time the spirit of cooperation and agreement necessary for joint development exists, the realities of the re­source potential of the Bering Sea and the Arc­tic area are such that some form of joint devel­opment of shared resources between the Soviet Union and the United States is inevitable.

28

APPENDIX 1 List of Participants

DR. C H A R A N A C H A L A B H U T I Deputy Governor for Natural Gas Operation

Petroleum Authority of Thailand Vibhavadi Rangsit Rd. Bangkok, Thailand

MR. DATUK H A R U N ARIFKIN Prime Minister's Department

Petroleum Development Division Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia

DR. GORDON E. BEAN LANDS Associate

Institute for Resource and Environmental Studies Dalhousie University 1312Robie Street Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

DR. SAMUEL H. C L A R K E Geologist

Branch of Pacific Marine Geology U.S. Geological Survev 3475 Deer Creek Rd.' Palo Alto. California, U S A .

DR. ERNEST P.DUBOIS Sr. Petroleum Geologist

CCOP (Committee for Coordination of Oflshore Prospecting) c/o ESCAP UN Building Bangkok, Thailand

MR. BERTRAM EL1SHEWITZ Consultant

7335 Fox worth Dallas, Texas, U.SA.

DR. FAN POW-FOONG Associate Professor

Hawaii Institute of Geophysics University of Hawaii Honolulu, Hawaii, U S A .

DR. FERE I DUN FES HARAKI Research Associate

East-West Center Resource Systems Institute 1777 East-West Road Honolulu. Hawaii. U.SA.

DR. WILLIAM K . G E A L E Y Geological Consultant

Chevron Overseas Petroleum Inc. 575 Market St. San Francisco, California, U.S.A.

DR. H. GARY GREENE U.S. Geological Survev MS-99

345 Middlefield Rd. Menlo Park, California, U.SA.

DR. STUART D. HARKER Regional Chief Geologist

Occidental Exploration and Production Co. 5000Stockdale Highway Bakers field, California, U.S. A.

DR. H. MARTO SUDIRO HARTONO Director

Geological Research & Development Center Jalan Diponcgoro 57 Bandung, Indonesia

DR. DENN IS E. HAYES Professor

Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory Columbia University Palisades, New York, U.S. A.

MR.JOHN KINGSTON Geologist

U.S. Geological Survey Menlo Park. California, U.SA.

MR. ROBERT KRUEGER Fin ley, Kumblc, Wagner, Heine, Underberg, Manley and Casey

9100 Wilshire Blvd. Beverly Hills, California, U.SA.

29

DR. RAINER LAGON I Professor and Director

Institute of the Law of the Sea and Maritime Law University of Hamburg Rolhenbaumchaussee 36 Hamburg Federal Republic of Germany

DR. STEPHEN DANA LEWIS Research Scientist

Lamont Doherty Geological Observatory Columbia University Palisades, New York, US.A.

DR. C.Y. Li Fellow

East-West Center Environment and Policy Institute 1777 East-West Road Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA.

MR. BRIAN J. L U E C K E Vice President-Exploration

International Energy Development Corporation GPO Box DI75 Perth, Western Australia

A P O L L O MADRID Bureau of Energy Development

Ministry of Energy Bldg. Merrit Rd., Fort Bonafacio Makati, Philippines

MR. MAURICE MAINGUY Con sultan t

30 Avenue Du Marechal JolTre Chatou, France

MR. MASAHIRO MIYOSHI Professor of International Law

Faculty of Law and Economics Aichi University 1-1 MachihaLa Toyohashi, Japan

DR. ROBERTC. MUMMERY Chief Geologist

Teknica Resource Development Ltd. 1100, 736-61 h Ave. SW Calgary, Alberta, Canada

DR. NORIYUKI NASU Director and Professor

Ocean Research Institute University of Tokyo 1-15-1, Minamidai, Nakano-ku Tokyo, Japan

MR. F U M I O O K A B E Senior Geologist

JAPEX Akasaka Twin Tower East Wing 17-22, Akasaka 2-Chome, Minatoku Tokyo, Japan

DR. WILLIAM T ONORATO Senior Attorney-Int'l E 8c P

Getty Oil Company-Law Dept. 3810 Wilshire Blvd.-Rm 1732 Los Angeles, California, U S A .

MR. WILLY OSTRENG Director

The Fridtjof Nansen Institute The Fridtjof Nansen vei 17 Lysaker, Norway

MR. PRAKONG P O L A H A N Director of Mineral Fuels Division

Department of Mineral Resources Rama VI Road Bangkok, Thailand

MR. NORDIN RAMLI Geologist

Pelronas Exploration Dept. 8th Floor, Wisma Peladang Jin. Bukil Bintang, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

DR. K E I T H ROBINSON Research Geologist

U S Geological Survey Branch Energy Minerals MS 916, Box 25046 Denver, Colorado, U S A .

MR. A B D U L KANI HJ. MOHD. S A L L E H Director of Petroleum Unit

Stale Secretariat Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei

DR. HANS U S C H L U T E R Diploma Geology

Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe Slilleweg2 Hannover Federal Republic of Germany

DR. G L E N N L. SHEPHERD Senior Geological Associate

Cities Service East Asia Inc. 11 Dhoby Ghaut #1305 Cathay Bldg. Singapore

30

DR. C O R A / O N M. SIDDAYAO Research Associate

East-West Center Resource Sysieins Institute 1777 East-Wesl Road Honolulu, Hawaii, U.S.A.

DR. TOUFIQ SIDDIQI Research Associate and Assistant Director

East-West Center Environment and Policy Institute 1777 East-West Road Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA.

MR. SI-CHIH SUN Chief Geologist

Chinese Petroleum Corporal ion #83, Chung Hwa Road Taipei, Taiwan, China

DR. BRIAN TAYLOR Assistant Professor

Hawaii Institute of Geophysics 2525Correa Rd. Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA.

DR. MAURICE J. TERM AN Chief, Asian and Pacific Geology

OH ice of International Geology U.S. Geological Survey National Center, MS 917 Reston, Virginia, U.S.A.

DR. MARK J. VALENCIA Research Associate

East-West Center Environment and Policy Institute 1 777 Easi-Wesi Road Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA.

DR.JON VAN DYKE Research Associate

East-West Center Environment and Policy Institute 1777 East-West Road Honolulu. Hawaii, U.SA.

MR. M O H A M M A D AZHARI WARGA-DALEM Deputy Head, Foreign Contractors Coordinating Agency

Penamina Head Office I A, Jalan Merdeka Timur

Jakarta, Indonesia

MR. G A T O T KARIYOSO WIROYUDO Senior Geologist

Pertain ina Division of Research 8c Development Exploration 8c Production Directorate 1 A, Jalan Merdeka Timur

Jakarta, Indonesia

MR. ABIRATNO WONGSOSANTIKO Senior Geologist

Amoseas Indonesia Inc. Jalan Kebonsirih52 Jakarta, Indonesia

MR. WUJINGMIN South China Sea Geological

Ministry of Geology and Mineral Resources Guangzhou, China

MR. P A U L C YUAN Professor-in-Residence and Senior Researcher

Kansas City Law School University of Missouri 5400 RockhillRd. Kansas City, Missouri, U.SA.

MR. XIA K A N YUAN South China Sea Institute of Oceanology

Academia Sinica 58 Xin Gang Road Guangzhou, China Jakarta, Indonesia

MR. T Z E N - F U YU1 Hawaii Institute of Geophysics

2525Correa Rd. Honolulu, Hawaii, U.SA.

31

APPENDIX 2 Workshop Agenda

Monday Morning August 22

8:00-9:00 a.m. 9:00 a.m.

9:30 a.m.

9:45 a.m. 10:00 a.m.

10:30 a.m.

11:00 a.m.

11:30 a.m. 12:00 noon

Registration In Chair: C. Y .Li Welcome: Victor Li, President

East-Wesl Center Statements by Representatives of Organizing and Sponsoring Organizations:

Mark J. Valencia (on behalf of EAPI) Mohammad A. Warga-Dalem (on behalf of ASCOPE) Noriyuki Nasu (on behalf of IOC)

Coffee Break Session I: Update on Offshore Hydrocarbon Development and Potential in Countries

Bordering the South China Sea In Chair: C.Y.Li Introductory Remarks I-A. "An overview of the geology and hydrocarbon prospects in central and

northern parts of the South China Sea," by Wu Jingmin "A study on the seismic waves of the basement of oil-bearing basins off the Pearl river mouth region of the South China Sea," by Xia Kan Yuan

"Geology and Bouguer gravity anomalies of Hainan Island and vicinity," by Fan Pow-Foong

"The Cenozoic tectonic evaluation of offshore Taiwan " by Si-Chih Sun

l-B.

I-C.

I-D. Lunch

Monday Afternoon August 22 1:30-2:30 p.m. 2:30 p.m.

2:45 p.m.

3:45 p.m.

4:15 p.m. 6:00 p.m.

Tuesday Morning August 23 9:00 a.m.

9:30 a.m. 10:00 a.m.

Session I —continued In Chair: C.Y. Li Discussion Coffee Break Session I—continued In Chair: Charan Achalabhuti I-E. "Tertiary tectonic evolution and related hydrocarbon potential in the

Natuna Sea," by Gatot K. Wiroyudo and Abiratno Wongsosantiko I-F. "Exploration review and outlook in the Natuna area," by

Gatot K. Wiroyudo Discussion EWC Buffet at Queen Kapiolani Hotel

Session / — continued In Chair: Charan Achalabhuti I-H. "Offshore hydrocarbon development and potential in Malaysia" by

Nordin Ramli I-I. "Petroleum exploration in Thailand," by Prakong Polahan I-J. "Offshore hydrocarbon development and potential in the Gulf of

Thailand," by Charan Achalabhuti

32

10:30 a.m. 10:45 a.m.

11:15a.m. 12:00 noon

Coffee Break l-K. "Deepwater hydrocarbon potential of the Philippines" by

Apollo Madrid Discussion Lunch

Tuesday Afternoon August 23 1:30 p.m.

2:00 p.m.

2:30 p.m. 2:45 p.m.

3:15 p.m.

3:45 p.m.

4:15 p.m. 4:30 p.m.

Wednesday Morning August 24 9:00 a.m.

9:30 a.m.

10:00 a.m. 10:15a.m.

10:45 a.m.

11:15a.m.

II :45 a.m.

12:15 p.m.

Wednesday Afternoon August 24 1:30 p.m.

2:00 p.m.

30 p.m. 45 p.m. 15 p.m.

3:45 p.m. 6:30 p.m.

Thursday Morning August 25

9:00 a.m.

Session I —continued In Chair: SK. Chung 1-L. "Tertiary sedimentary basins of the Gulf of Thailand and South China

Sea," by Ernest P. Du Bois I-M. "Pre-Tertiary hydrocarbon potential of the South China Sea," by

Maurice Mainguy and Henri Fontaine Coffee Break l-N. "Methodology of estimates and some assessments of undiscovered

hydrocarbon resources in selected areas of the South China Sea," by Keith Robinson

'Margins of the southeast sub-basin of the South China Sea — A frontier exploration target?" by Dennis E. Hayes 'Useof seislog for basin evaluation and field development," by Robert C. Mummery

'Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas," by Ernest P. Du Bois

I-O.

I-P.

' - 9

Discussion

Session II: Update on Geology and Geophysics of the South China Sea In Chair: Gary H. Greene I- A. "Plate tectonic evolution of the western Pacific Indian Ocean and

bordering continental areas," by William K. Gealey II- B. "Origin and history of the South China Sea Basin," by Brian Taylor and

. Dennis E. Hayes Coffee Break 1I-C. "Structure and tectonics of the Manila Trench system," by Dennis E.

Hayes and Stephen D. Lewis II-D. "Forearc basin development along western Luzon, Philippines," by

Stephen D. Lewis and Dennis E Hayes Il-E. "ResultsofSorm*CruiseSO-23 and SO-27," by Hans U. Schliiter and

K. Hinz II- F. "Oxygen isotope studies of planktonic foraminifera from the South

China Sea core (V19-134)," by Chen Ming-Sue et al. Lunch

Session III: Regional Synthesis In Chair: Dennis E. Hayes 11 I-A. "CCOP-IOC Programme on Studies in East Asia Tectonics and

Resources (SEATAR)," by Ernest P. Du Bois and Noriyuki Nasu I II-B. "CCOP's report of the Economic Advisory Panel on mineral and

hydrocarbon resources," by the Representative of CCOP Coffee Break III- C. "ASCOPE/CCOPJoint Program," by Mohammad A. Warga-Dalem III- D. "New IOC Programmes on Ocean Sciences in relation to non-living

resources," by Noriyuki Nasu Discussion PRI Banquet: China House, Ala Moana Center .

Session IV: Environmental Aspects of Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration and Exploitation

In Chair: Toufiq Siddiqi IV- A. "Environmental impact assessment of offshore explorations: Lessons of a

decade of experience in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada," by Gordon E. Beanlands

33

9:30 a.m.

10:00 a.m.

10:30 a.m.

10:45 a.m.

11:00 a.m.

11:30 a.m. 12:00 noon

1V-B. "Report of ASCOPE Workshopon Offshore Geological and Natural Environmental Hazards," by Mohammad A. Warga-Dalem

IV- C. "South China Sea: Hypothetical oil spill trajectories and transnational impact" by Mark J. Valencia etal.

Coffee Break

Session V: Joint Research* Investigation, and Development In Chair: Datuk Harun Ariffin V- l A. "A summary of results of discussions on agenda items U and 111

concerning joint research and investigation so far undertaken and to be carried out" by C. Y. Li

V-1B. "Petroleum supply and demand in the Asia-Pacific region: Structural changes, options, and vulnerabilities in the 1980s," by Fereidun Fesharaki

Discussion Lunch

Thursday Afternoon August 25 1:00 p.m.

1:30 p.m.

2:00 p.m. 2:15 p.m.

2:45 p.m.

3:15 p.m.

3:45 p.m. 4:15 p.m.

4:45 p.m.

Friday Morning August 26 9:00 a.m.

2:00 p.m.

V-2 A. "Arrangements for joint development pending resolution of boundaries," by Rainer Lagoni

V-2B. "Southeast Asian Seas: Hydrocarbon potential and unresolved boundaries," by Mark J. Valencia

Coffee Break V-2C. "The Malaysian philosophy of joint development," by Datuk

Harun Ariffin V-2D. "China's sovereignty over its offshore oil and the new Law of the Sea," by

PaulC. Yuan V-2E. "The Japan-South Korea joint development arrangement," by Masahiro

Miyoshi V-2F. "The Norway-Iceland arrangement for Jan Mayen," by Willy Ostreng V-2G. "A case study in joint development: The partitioned neutral zone (Saudi

Arabia/Kuwait)" by William T. Onorato V-2H. "Bering Sea petroleum: A new meeting ground by the Soviet Union and

the United States," by Robert Krueger

There will be two panels.

Panel I will be chaired by Dennis E. Hayes and have as its terms of references: 1. To review offshore development and potential in countries bordering the South China Sea and in the sea itself (Rapporteur: Ernest P. Du Bois); 2. To consider further action to be taken in the field of marine geology and geophysics (Rapporteur: Brian Taylor); 3. To review the development of the SEATAR Program (Rapporteur: Stephen D. Lewis); 4. To consider joint studies, research, and surveys through regional cooperation (Rapporteur: H. Gary Greene); and 5. To strengthen close cooperation among ASCOPE, CCOP, IOC, EAPI, and other regional and international organizations (Rapporteur: C. Y. Li).

Panel II will be chaired by Datuk Harun ArifFin and will consider lessons learned from precedents in joint development that may be applied elsewhere (Rapporteur: Masahiro Miyoshi). Concluding Session

1. Consideration of the Report of Panel I 2. Consideration of the Report of Panel II 3: Adoption of Recommendations

34

T H E E A S T - W E S T C E N T E R is an educational institution established in Hawaii in 1960 by the United States Congress. T h e Center's mandate is "to promote better relations and understanding among the na­tions of Asia, the Pacific, and the United States through cooperative study, training, and research."

Each year nearly 2,000 graduate students, scholars, professionals in business and government, and visit­ing specialists engage in research with the Center's international staff on major issues and problems facing the Asian and Pacific region. Since 1960, more than 30,000 men and women f rom the region have partici­pated in the Center's cooperative programs.

T h e Center's research and educational activities are conducted in four institutes —Culture and Commu­nication, Environment and Policy, Population, and Resource Systems—and in its Pacific Islands Develop­ment Program, Open Grants, and Centerwide Programs.

Although principal funding continues to come f rom the U.S. Congress, more than 20 Asian and Pacific governments, as well as private agencies and corporations, have provided contributions for program sup­port. The East-West Center is a public, nonprofit corporation with an international board of governors.

T H E E A S T - W E S T E N V I R O N M E N T A N D P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E was established in October 1977 to increase understanding of the interrelationships among policies designed to meet a broad range of human and societal needs over time and the natural systems and resources on which these policies depend or impact. Through interdisciplinary and multinational programs of research, study, and training, the Insti­tute seeks to develop and apply concepts and approaches useful in identifying alternatives available to deci­sion makers and in assessing the implications of such choices. Progress and results of Institute programs are disseminated in the East-West Center region through research reports, books, workshop reports, working papers, newsletters, and other educational and informational materials.

Will iam H . Matthews, Director East-West Environment and Policy Institute

East-West Center 1777 East-West Road

Honolulu, Hawaii 96848

l