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1
Second Quarter Earnings ReleaseJuly 23, 2009
Jim Young, Chairman and CEO
2
Second Quarter 2009 Results
• Reported EPS = $0.92
– Includes $0.14 from RTD land sale
• Record Operating Ratio
• Quarterly Safety “Bests”
• Continued Service Excellence
• Strong Cash Position & Solid Balance Sheet
3
Second Quarter Marketing & Sales ReviewJuly 23, 2009
Jack Koraleski, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales
4
2009 Volume DriversSelected Market Indicators
• Manufacturing & Construction
– Electrical generation by coal -10% (June YTD)
– Average utility coal stockpiles +17% (June YTD)
• Consumer Spending
– U.S. light vehicle sales -35% (June YTD)
– West Coast port volumes -20% (June YTD)
• Agricultural Sector
– Corn & soybean export sales -13% (’08/’09 Crop YTD)
– Livestock sector prices -13 to -25% (June YTD)
– U.S. construction spending -12% (May annualized estimate)
– U.S. steel capacity utilization -47pts (July YTD)
5
Second Quarter Volume(In Thousands)
2,371
1,852
2008 International
IntermodalCoal Autos Construction
Products
ChemicalsOther Domestic
Intermodal
2009
(155)(91)
(53)(71)
(83)(78)
+12
6
AgriculturalSecond Quarter 2009 Quarterly Results
• $618M, -21%
• -14% Carloadings
• $3,045 ARC, -8%
Quarterly Drivers
• Slowdown in Grain Exports
• Decline in Domestic Animal Feeding
• Reduction in Soybean Crush
*Volume in (000s) of carloads
-46%
-17%
Export Whole Grain*
Domestic Whole Grain*
40.8
2009
53.0
43.9
2008 2009
22.1
2008
7
AutosSecond Quarter 2009
Quarterly Results
• $163M, -54%
• -47% Carloadings
• $1,755 ARC, -12%
Quarterly Drivers
• Auto Plant Shutdowns
• Vehicle Production -48% in Second Quarter
*Volume in (000s) of carloads
-49%
-44%
Vehicle Parts*
Finished Vehicles*
2008 2009
105.2
53.2
70.6
39.4
2008 2009
8
ChemicalsSecond Quarter 2009
Quarterly Results
• $499M, -24%
• -22% Carloadings
• $2,659 ARC, -2%
Quarterly Drivers
• Weak Demand Across Major Market Segments
*Volume in (000s) of carloads
-43%
-23%
Fertilizer*
Liquid & Dry*
2008 2009
61.7
47.6
35.3
20.0
2008 2009
9
EnergySecond Quarter 2009
Quarterly Results
• $715M, -22%
• -16% Carloadings
• $1,520 ARC, -7%
Quarterly Drivers
• Decreased Electrical Production
• SPRB Contract Losses
• CO/UT Production Issues
– Loaded 366 Fewer CO/UT Trains Year-Over-Year
-14%
-35%
*Millions of tons
SPRB Tonnage*
CO/UT Tonnage*
2008 2009
11.0
7.1
2008 2009
47.6
40.9
10
Quarterly Results
• $531M, -39%
• -34% Carloadings
• $2,319 ARC, -9%
Quarterly Drivers
• Sharp Downturn in Steel Market
• Continued Softness in Housing & Construction
• High Inventories and Reduced Production of Paper
*Volume in (000s) of carloads
-60%
-41%
Industrial ProductsSecond Quarter 2009
Steel & Scrap*
Lumber & Building
Materials*
2008 2009
62.5
24.8
2008 2009
37.1
21.9
11
IntermodalSecond Quarter 2009
International Volume*
2008
Domestic Volume*
2009
*Volume in (000s) of units
Quarterly Results
• $595M, -23%
• -18% Carloadings
• $889 ARC, -6%
Quarterly Drivers
• Weak Import Volumes
• Service-Driven Product Offerings
524.9
369.8
287.1299.4
+4%
-30%
2008 2009
12
7-Day Carloads
(000s)
Looking AheadSecond Half Volume Second Half Opportunities
• Agricultural
– Fall grain harvests
– Ethanol
• Autos
– Record low inventories
– “Cash for Clunkers”
• Chemicals
– Fertilizer?
• Energy
– Summer coal burn
• Industrial Products
– Uptick in production?
– Stimulus?
• Intermodal
– Peak season?
– New services
– Hub growth
2007
2008
2009
July MTD, not a full month estimate
200
180
160
140
120
100
Jan June Dec
13
2007 2008 2009
Customer Satisfaction Index
Good
Q1 Q1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2Q1 Q3 Q4 Q2
87
79
87
14
Second Quarter Operating ReviewJuly 23, 2009
Dennis Duffy, Executive VP – Operations
15
2009 Safety & ServiceSecond Quarter
AAR VelocityMPH
10.5
Freight Car UtilizationCycle Days
27.4
2006 2009
21.2 8.6
Good Good
2006 20092007 2008 2007 2008
2007 20082006
27.6
2009
24.5
2007 2008
AAR Terminal DwellHours
Good
Service Delivery Index*
68
2006 2009
93
Good
* Includes early deliveries
16
2009 ProductivitySecond Quarter
• Improved Train Crew
Productivity
– Reduced crew expenses
• Record Fuel Efficiency
• Increased Network
Fluidity
2007 20082006 2009
9.4%
3.8%
Recrew Rate
Good
2007 20082006 2009
1.27
1.14
Fuel Consumption RateGallons/(000) GTM
Good
17
Aligning Working Resources
GTMs (millions)
Road
Locomotives
Freight Cars-30%
-27%
-22%
-25%
-22%
Train Starts (000s)
Average TE&Y
Employees
Second Quarter Average
• April/May “Peak” Levels
– 5,300 TE&Y furloughs
– 2,100 locomotives stored
– 71,000 freight cars parked
• Current Reduction Levels
– 4,400 TE&Y furloughs
– 1,900 locomotives stored
– 60,000 freight cars parked
18
St. Louis
Chicago
Oakland
Portland
Los Angeles
Kansas City
Ft. Worth
St Louis
Chicago
Denver
San Antonio
Houston
Reduced Yard Operations
2007 2008
2006
65
2009
91
2007 2008
Manifest SDI*Good
Industry Spot and Pull%
88
2006 2009
97Good
Volume Variability with Service GainsSecond Quarter
* Includes early deliveries
19
2009 Capital InvestmentsUpdate
• Replacement / Renewal
Programs
– Safety
– Service
– Throughput
• Productivity
• Engineering Maintenance
– Slow order miles down 20%
– Production exceeding plan
$2.6 Billion Capital Plan*In Millions
Engineering Replacement
$1,700
Locomotives/Equipment
$400
Capacity/ Commercial
Facilities $400
Technology/
Other $100
Replacement
Growth and Productivity* Capital budget as of July 2009.
~~
20
2009 Operating Initiatives
• Ongoing Safety
Commitment
• Volume Variability with
Excellent Service
• Summer Capital
Programs
– Productivity improvement
• Well Positioned for
Upside Leverage
21
Second Quarter Financial ReviewJuly 23, 2009
Rob Knight, CFO
22
Income Statement SummarySecond Quarter – In Millions
Operating Revenues
Freight Revenues $ 3,121 $ 4,349
Other Revenues 182 219
Total Operating Revenues 3,303 4,568
Operating Expenses
Compensation and Benefits 976 1,101
Purchased Services & Materials 391 494
Fuel 370 1,159
Depreciation 355 346
Equipment & Other Rents 307 338
Other 153 199
Total Operating Expenses 2,552 3,637
Operating Income $ 751 $ 931
2009 2008 %
(28)
(17)
(28)
(11)
(21)
(68)
3
(9)
(23)
(30)
(19)
23
Freight Revenue Drivers
Q1 Q1
$1,738 $1,755
Q2 Q3 Q4
$1,835
$1,931$1,891
Average Revenue Per Car
2008 2009
Q2
$1,685
• $3.1 B Freight Revenue
– 28% decline on 22% lower carloadings
• ARC Declined 8%
– Customers benefit from lower diesel fuel prices
– $500M less fuel surcharge revenue
• Pricing Gains Consistent with Outlook
24
Compensation & BenefitsSecond Quarter – In Millions
$1,101
2008 2009
$976
-11%• 10% Workforce Reduction
– Labor productivity
– 22% fewer GTMs
• Wage & Benefit Inflation
• July 1st Union Wage Increase = 4.5%
25
Purchased Services & MaterialsSecond Quarter – In Millions
$494
2008 2009
$391
-21% • Decreased Contract Service Expense
• Reduced Crew Transportation & Lodging
• Fewer Locomotive Repairs & Materials
26
Fuel Surcharge Lag Impact
Price/
Gallon$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00Q2
2008
Q1
2009
Q4
2008
Q3
2008
Q2
2009
Fuel Price – Actual/Estimated
Fuel Price – Lagged 2 months
Negative Lag Impact
Positive Lag Impact
Quarterly EPS ImpactActual and Estimated
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2008
27
Volume & Efficiency Savings Second Quarter
Gross Ton-Miles(In Billions)
Fuel ConsumptionGallons (in millions)
20092008
257201
20092008
313
229
• 22% Decline in Gross Ton-Miles
– $234M savings
• Fuel Efficiency
– Fuel consumption rate improved 6%
– $65M savings
28
Equipment and Other RentsSecond Quarter – In Millions
• Volume Savings
– Industrial Products & Intermodal
• Improved Asset Utilization
• Fewer Leased Assets
$338
2008 2009
$307
-9%
29
OtherSecond Quarter – In Millions
• $38M Year-Over-Year Casualty Expense Reduction
• Lower Utility Costs
• Higher Property Taxes
• Increased Provision for Bad Debts
$199
2008 2009
$153
-23%
30
Expense Variability
55%
70%
Q2 Q1
Volume Variability
Second Quarter
Revenue Carloads(000s)
20092008
2,371
1,852
-22%
2009
~~
31
Second QuarterOperating Ratio (%)
2006 2007 2008 2009
81.780.5
79.6
77.3
• Volume Variability
– Cost reductions
– Efficiency gains
• Lower Fuel Prices
• Price Increases
32
Full Income StatementSecond Quarter – In Millions (Except EPS)
Operating Revenues $ 3,303 $ 4,568
Operating Expenses 2,552 3,637
Operating Income 751 931
Other Income – Net 135 19
Interest Expense (150) (128)
Income Before Income Taxes 736 822
Income Tax Expense (268) (291)
Net Income – As Reported 468 531
RTD Land Sale (72) -
Net Income – Adjusted $396 $531
Diluted EPS – As Reported $0.92 $1.02
RTD Land Sale (0.14) -
Diluted EPS – Adjusted $0.78 $1.02
2009 2008 %
(28)
(30)
(19)
F
17
(10)
(8)
(12)
-
(25)
(10)
-
(24)
33
Balance Sheet StrengthSecond Quarter – In Millions
* See Union Pacific Web site under Investor Relations for a reconciliation to GAAP.
*Lease Adjusted Total Debt
Lease Adjusted Debt to Capital
• Maintaining Strong Cash Position
• Moderately Increased Year-Over-Year Debt
Cash Balance
20092008
20092008
$611
$1,656
Total Debt*
$12,731$14,845
45.0% 48.1%
34
Second Half Drivers
• Volume Levels
• Fuel
• Continued Profitability Improvements
7-Day Carloads
(000s)
2007
2008
2009
200
180
160
140
120
100
Jan June Dec
July MTD, not a full month estimate
35
Second Quarter Earnings ReleaseJuly 23, 2009
Jim Young, Chairman and CEO
36
Cautionary InformationThis presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of
historical fact, including specifically expectations regarding the Corporation’s outlook regarding economic conditions,
future operating and safety performance, competitiveness of service and capital investments. These statements
are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act
of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding:
projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business,
financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations,
goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.
Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not
necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved.
Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the
Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk
factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other
outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information
regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-
K for 2008, which was filed with the SEC on February 6, 2009. The Corporation updates information regarding risk
factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual
Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).
Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the
statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect
actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the
Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the
Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements.
References to our Web site are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the
Web site is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.
37
Q&A Session