Upload
others
View
3
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
SECONDORDERSCIENCE:LOGIC,STRATEGIES,METHODS
StuartA.UmplebyDepartmentofManagement
TheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityWashington,DC
Anearlytransitioninourconceptionofknowledge
• RobertBoylewaspartofaluncheonclubinLondoninthemid1600s,whichwascalledthe“invisiblecollege”
• ThisgroupbecametheRoyalSocietyofLondonfortheImprovementofNaturalKnowledgein1663
• Thisisoneindicationofatransitioninthemid1600sfromtheologicalknowledgetonatural(scientific)knowledge
RobertBoyle(1627-1691)
Acurrenttransitiontoreflexiveknowledge
• Manypeoplehavecontributedtothecurrentchangeinthinking
• HeinzvonFoerster,secondordercybernetics• GeorgeSoros,reflexivitytheoryineconomics• KarlMueller,secondorderresearch• VladimirLefebvre,ethicalcognition• LouisKauffman,knottheory• KlausKrippendorff,thereflexiveturn
HeinzvonFoerster(1911-2002)
GeorgeSoros
KarlMueller
VladimirLefebvre
LouisKauffman
KlausKrippendorff
Thebasicidea
• Sciencecanbeexpandedbyaddingtheobservertowhatisobserved
• Wecouldshiftourthinkingfromviewingscienceascreatingdescriptionsofsystemstoviewingscienceasanactivepartofsocialsystems
• Wewouldthinkabouttheco-evolutionoftheoriesandsociety
World
1
2
3
ObserverDescription
Howwethinkaboutsocialscience
• Itiseasytoacceptthattheoriesaffectsociety• Wecreatetheoriesbecausewehopethatpeoplewillacceptthem,actonthemandsocietywillperhapsoperatebetter
• However,whenwedoscience,wepretendthattheoriesdonotaffectwhatisstudied
• Weactthiswaybecausewethinkthisisthewaytocreateobjectivedescriptions
• Butwecanexpandourconceptionofscience
ThreeconceptionsofScience2
• Meta-science:combiningtheresultsofmanystudiesinordertocreatemoreholistic,moreuseableknowledge(K.H.Mueller)
• Takeadvantageoftheinternettocooperateinscientificresearchandsharingofdata(BenShneiderman)
• Takeaccountoftheobserverandexaminetheco-evolutionoftheoriesandphenomena,particularlyinthesocialsciences
Fourmodelsunderlyingscience
• Linearcausality– manystatisticalmethodsareavailable,e.g.,correlationandmultipleregression
• Circularcausality– inherentinregulation,systemdynamicsmodels
• Self-organization– AdamSmith,CharlesDarwin,complexadaptivesystems
• Reflexivity– vonFoerster,Soros,Lefebvre
Reflexivity
• Observe,decide,act,observe…• Acircularprocess• Theobserverisincluded• Operatesontwolevelsofanalysis–observationandparticipation
Examplesfromseveralfields
• Management• Sociology• Economics
Includingtheobserverisnotcompletelynew
• Thefieldofmanagementislargelyacollectionofmethods– Howtoimproveamanufacturingprocess– Howtoconductastrategicplanningexercise
• Butlittleattentionhasbeenpaidtoconnectingthisformofknowledgetothephilosophyofscience
• Reflexivitytheorymakesthispossible
Secondorderknowledgeinmanagement
• Inmanagementthereisalargeliteratureonhowtodothings,onhowamanagershouldact
• Themostusefulliteraturehasoftenbeencreatedbyconsultantsratherthanacademics
• Butmostprofessorsofmanagementattempttoemulatethephysicalsciences
• Managersoftensaythatthemanagementliteratureisnothelpfultothem
Theories Methods
No Yes
Should methods be for the use of individuals or groups?
Is there a difference between the natural sciences and the social sciences?
Should knowledge in the field of management be constructed in the form of theories or methods?
Should we reject the philosophy of science?
Groups Individuals
“Act like this”
Expand the philosophy of science to include knowing subjects
“Think like this” Popper’s doctrine of the unity of method
What should take its place? How should knowledge be constructed?
Yes No
Sociologyofknowledge
• Ourpositioninsocietyinfluenceswhatwebelieve
• Ifwearerich,societyisworkingwell• Ifwearepoor,societyisnotworkingwell• Culture,religion,andeducationalbackgroundallshapewhatweseeandhowwethink
• Hence,thereisaninteractionbetweensocietyandwhatwethink
Thenatureofknowledgeineconomics
• Economicsisthesocialsciencethathasbeenmostsuccessfulinimitatingclassicalscience
• Quantificationhasbeeneasierineconomicsthanothersocialsciences
• Economicsisnowdefinedprimarilybyitsmethodsratherthanitssubjectmatter
Equilibriumtheoryineconomics
• Physicistsatfirstdealtwithsmallnumbersofobjects– planets,pendula,billiardballs
• Butgasesinvolvemanymillionsofparticles• So,tocreatethermodynamicsphysicistslookedatgrossparameters– pressure,volume,temperature
• Economistsadoptedthismodel– imports,exports,savings,GDP
Behavioraleconomics
• Equilibriumtheoryineconomicsusestheconceptofself-organization– elementsofasystemgototheirstable,equilibrialstates
• Whenthereisadisturbance(e.g.,anewtechnologyornewlegislation),peopleseektoreturntoequilibrium
• Severalassumptions– theyseektomaximizepersonalprofit;peoplearerational;theyhaveequalandcompleteinformation
Progressinrecentyears
• Behavioraleconomicshaschallengedtheviewofhumanbeingsineconomics
• SeveralpeoplehavewonNobelPrizesbyshowingthatpeopledonotalwaysseektomaximizeprofit,thattheyarenotalwaysrational,andthattheythattheydonothavethesameinformation
Additionalassumptionsineconomics
• Thereisanother,morephilosophical,setofassumptionsthateconomistshavenotyetaddressed
• Theclassicalphilosophyofscienceassumed– Theobserverisnotincludedinwhatisobserved– Theoriesdonotaffectwhatisobserved
• Dotheseassumptionsfitthesocialsciences,ordowecreatetheoriesinanefforttochangesocialsystems?
KaletskyinCapitalism4.0
1. Alaissezfaireapproachtomacroeconomicsfollowedthestockmarketcrashof1929
2. Aninterventionistperiod,basedonthetheoriesofKeynesbeganduringthe1930s
3. Amovetowardfewerstate-ownedenterprisesandlessgovernmentregulationwasinfluencedbyHayekandFriedman
4. Latelytherehasbeenareturntothebeliefthatsomeregulationisnecessary
Thehistoryofeconomictheories
• Inthephysicalsciencestheoriesgetbetterovertime
• However,ineconomicstherearefluctuationsbetweenthebeliefthatmarketswillsolveallproblemsandthebeliefthatgovernmentinterventionisnecessary
• PerhapsthisiswhythehistoryofeconomicthoughtisnolongertaughtinmanyuniversitiesintheU.S.
Thelossofhistoryineconomics
• “Thereisnottimeenoughtoteachtheoldideas,sincethereissomuchnewstufftoteach”
• Theoldtheories,whichwereverbalratherthanquantitative,areseenasinferiortonewerideas
• Butthereseemtobefluctuationsineconomictheories?
Needforsecondordertheory
• Currenteconomictheoriesareelementsintheregulationofaneconomy
• Asecondordertheoryisneededtodescribehowfirstordertheoriesaretobeused
• Acurrenteconomictheorycanbeviewedasapartialdescriptionoratemporarydescriptionoracontextdependentdescription
• Asecondordertheoryofeconomicswouldbeacybernetictheory,atheoryofcontrolbyusingideas
Correctingunderlyingassumptions
• Behavioraleconomicsisanefforttocorrectspecificassumptionsunderlyingequilibriumtheoryortheideaofaneconomyasaself-organizingsystem
• Reflexivitytheorychallengesassumptionsaboutscience-- thattheoriesdonotaffecttheoperationofaneconomyandthatoldertheoriescanbediscarded
Secondorderscience
• Theideaofsecondorderscienceismorerelevantforthesocialsciencesthanthephysicalsciences
• Scienceitselfisasocialprocess• Cyberneticsisatheoryofinformationandregulationinsomewhatthesamewaythatphysicsisatheoryofmatterandenergy
Howtodosecondorderscience
• Anacademicdisciplinerequiresmethodswhichcanbepracticed
• Whataresomemethodsfordoingsecondorderscience?
Severalmethodsforsecondorderscience
• Theinfluencecycleissimilartothecreditcycleandtheleveragecycle
• Interactionbetweenideasandsociety,anhistoricalapproach(shoelacemodel)
• Examinesocialactivitiesintermsofideas,groups,events,andvariables
• Acomparativeapproach
Amountof+credit
+ +Lending + CollateralDebtactivity valuesservice
+ -Economic+stimulus _
Thecreditcycle
opportunitiesfor+innovation
+ +deregulationof + economicabuseofasymmetricbusinessactivity growthinformation
+ -beliefinthe+
valueofmarkets_
Theinfluencecycle
Ideas
Variables Groups
Events
A reflexive theory operates at two levels
Whypracticesecondorderscience?
• Itismorerealistic• Weceasepretendingthatsocialsystemsarelikephysicalsystems
• Newscientifictheoriesandmethodswillbeinvented
• Withalargerconceptionofsciencewewillbeabletoexplainandtoinfluenceprocesseswecouldnototherwise
Reasonsnottodosecondorderscience
• Givingupaclaimofobjectivitymeansgivingupaclaimtospecialauthority
• Theinformalfallaciescautionagainsterrorsinlanguage,emotionandthought– Circularreasoning,language– Adhominemfallacy,emotion– Fallacyofaccent,thought
• Self-referenceleadstoparadoxandhencelogicalinconsistency
Copingwithself-reference
• Inpracticalaffairsweroutinelydealwiththelogicalproblemofself-reference
• Weseektoeliminateconflictsofinterest• TheFifthAmendmentprohibitsself-incrimination
• Weletjuriesdecidewhomandwhattobelieve
• Whenwedosciencewetrytoconstructlogicallyconsistenttheories
Whyshouldwenotbedeterred?
• Inpracticalaffairswehavelearnedtocopewithself-reference
• Wecommonlyseeourselvesasparticipantsinamulti-playergame
• Welosenothingbyaddinganewdimensiontoscience
• Thesciencewepracticedbeforewecanstillpractice
TheCorrespondencePrinciple
• ProposedbyNielsBohrwhendevelopingthequantumtheory
• Anynewtheoryshouldreducetotheoldtheorytowhichitcorrespondsforthosecasesinwhichtheoldtheoryisknowntohold
• Anewdimensionisrequired• Byapplyingthecorrespondenceprincipletothephilosophyofscience,wechangenotjustonetheoryoronefieldbutallofscience
New philosophy of science
An Application of the Correspondence Principle
Old philosophy of science
Amount of attention paid to the observer
Theeffectonsciencepolicy
• Sciencepolicytodayismostlyanexerciseinbudgeting
• Analternativeapproachistostudythehistoryofscience
• Studyscienceasasocialactivity– history,philosophy,cognitivescience,sociologyofscience
• Whatpracticeshavebeenhelpful?Howhasthemostinnovativesciencebeenproduced?
Logic
• Includetheobserverinwhatisobserved• Inthesocialsciencestheoriescanchangethephenomenonobserved
• Knowledgecanbeorganizedasmethodsaswellastheories(instructionstoparticipants)
• Addthedimensionoftimetoresolveproblemsinvolvingself-reference
Strategies
• Studycognitionandincorporatewhatislearnedintoourunderstandingofknowledgeandepistemology(HeinzvonFoerster)
• Studyhighperformingresearchteams(Hollingsworth,Mueller)
• Createandusemethodsfordoingsecondorderscience
Methods
• Modelcyclesinpreferredtheories• Viewfirstordertheoriesasbeingpartofsocialcontrolprocesses
• Charttheinteractionbetweenideasandsociety(e.g.,shoelacemodel)
• Createmulti-disciplinarydescriptionsusingideas,groups,events,andvariables
• Docross-culturalstudies
Akeyquestion:Dohumanactivitieschangesystems?
• Humanbeingschangesocialsystemsbychanginglawsandtheories
• Astechnologyimproves,humanbeingsareevenchangingthenaturalenvironment– soil,fish,climate
• Wearelearningtothinkaboutourselvesasparticipantsinthesystemswestudy
• Buttodothatweneedtochangeourconceptionofscience
ContactInformation
Prof.StuartUmplebyDepartmentofManagementSchoolofBusinessGeorgeWashingtonUniversityWashington,DC20052USA
www.gwu.edu/[email protected]
PresentedatCaféScientifiqueArlington,VASeptember10,2012