Seasonal Assessment Training Household Economy Analysis: The Analytical Framework Livelihoods Integration Unit (LIU) Early Warning & Response Department

Seasonal Assessment Training

Household Economy Analysis:

The Analytical Framework

Livelihoods Integration Unit (LIU)

Early Warning & Response DepartmentDisaster Management & Food Security SectorMinistry of Agriculture & Rural Development

GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

In relation to seasonal assessments, the objective of HEA is to investigate the effects of hazards on future access to food and income at household level

HEA Framework: Overview


The framework involves putting together two types of information:

Livelihood Baseline Data(The context)

Monitoring Data(The changes)

+

On-going Analysis of Current and Projected Situation and

Intervention Needs(The outcome)



Coping step example: 1 household member migrates for labour

Outcome = Baseline + Hazard + Coping(a simple example)

Hazard example:50% crop failure

other

food aid

cropspurchase

The baseline picture

purchase

other

food aid

crops

deficit

Effect on access to crops

migration

purchase

other

food aid

crops

deficit

Final result



HEA starts with an understanding of how households normally live….

A more detailed example….HEA Framework: Overview


…then it incorporates the impact of a

shock….

A more detailed example….HEA Framework: Overview


Survival ThresholdSurvival Threshold

Livelihoods Protection ThresholdLivelihoods Protection ThresholdGap

…and finally looks at how people might be

able to cope.

The analysis suggests that post-shock, households will not be able to maintain their normal livelihood

assets without assistance.


BASELINE

In sum….


BASELINE HAZARD+

In sum….


BASELINE HAZARD+ COPING+

In sum….


BASELINE HAZARD+ COPING OUTCOME+ =

In sum….


BASELINE HAZARD+ COPING OUTCOME+ =

HEA Framework Overview: Components

In practice this process is broken into six steps


Step 1: Livelihood Zoning

Why it is necessary:Allows you to target

geographically &to customize indicators

for livelihoods monitoring systems

Enderta Dry Midland Zone Production: Rainfed mixed agricultureAgro-ecological zone: Woina dega (midland)Main Consumption: Wheat, Teff, Sorghum,Main cash crops: Barley, Wheat, Sorghum, Main livestock: Sheep, Cattle, PoultryMarket access: goodOther economic activities: Salt trade, animal sales,Hazards: Drought every 3 years, weeds every year Response of poor: Labour sales, firewood sales, migration

West Central Teff Zone Production: Rainfed mixed agricultureAgro-ecological zone: Woina dega (midland)Main Consumption: Teff, Barley, Wheat, Pulses Major Cash Crops: Teff, Wheat, Pulses Main livestock: Cattle, goat, sheepMarket Access: GoodHazard: Drought every 3 years, pests every 3 years, hailstorms annually Response of poor: Labour sales, reduce meals

(frequency)

What it does:Defines areas within which

people share broadly the same patterns of livelihood


Step 2: Wealth Breakdown

What it does:Groups people together using local definitions of

wealth and quantifies their livelihood assets

Why it is necessary:Allows you to disaggregate the population and indicate

who (and how many) need assistance

HH sizeLand area cultivated

Crops cultivated Livestock Holding

Very Poor 4-6 0.13-0.38hawheat, gesho, barley, teff,

hanfets1-3 shoats, 2-5 chickens, 4-6

eucalyptus trees

Poor 5-7 0.25-0.38hawheat, gesho, barley, teff,

hanfets, lentils0-1 ox, 2-4 shoats, 0-1 donkeys, 3-6 chickens, 16-20 eucalyptus

Middle 5-7 0.25-0.63hawheat, gesho, barley, teff,

hanfets, lentils

0-2 ox, 1-3 cattle, 4-6 shoats, 1 donkey, 5-7 chickens, 20-30

eucalyptus trees, 0.5-2.5 beehives

Better-off 5-7 0.25-0.75hawheat, gesho, barley, teff,

hanfets, lentils

0.5-2.5 ox, 1-3 cattle, 6-8 shoats, 0-2 donkey, 5-7 chickens, 35-45eucalyptus, 2-4 beehives

Wealth Groups Characteristics

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

% of population

Gesho & Wheat Highland Zone


Step 3: Baseline food, income and expenditure quantification

What it does:Quantifies sources of food and income, and expenditure patterns for a baseline

year2005-6 in Tigray

Why it is necessary:Enables comparisons across wealth

groups, zones and countries &

provides starting point for outcome analysis

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

V.Poor Poor Middle Better-off

prod. safety-nets

purchase

payment in kind

livestock prod.

crops

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


watershed mngt

prod.safety nets

petty trade

labour migration

livestock sales

l/stock prod. sales

crop sales

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


othertaxclothessocial sev.inputsHH itemsnon-staple foodstaple food

Central Mixed Crop Livelihood Zone

So

urc

es o

f F

oo

dS

ou

rces

of

Inco

me

Exp

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reGOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA: DISASTER MANAGEMENT & FOOD SECURITY SECTOR, MOARD

Step 4:What it does:

Translates a hazard into economic consequences at

household level

Why it is necessary:Allows you to

mathematically link the shock to each relevant

livelihood strategy

OUTCOME ANALYSIS

Problem Specification

Crop loss of 75%

Local labor rates down 50%

Food prices doubled

Chicken prices down 50%

Migratory labor increased 50%

Compiled from data collected during seasonal assessments or monitoring


Step 5: What it does:Assesses the ability of

households to respond to the hazard

Why it is necessary:Determines the amount of

external assistance required

&Highlights monitoring

indicators for testing prediction

OUTCOME ANALYSIS

Coping Capacity/Response Stragies

Draw down on surplus/stocks

Expand production (wild foods/fish)

Expand income

Switch expenditure

Data collected during baseline


Step 6: What it does:Predicts the outcome of the

hazard in relation to livelihood protection and

survival thresholds

Why it is necessary:Allows you to determine

whether people need external assistance in

order to survive and/or to maintain their livelihood

assets

OUTCOME ANALYSIS

The figure compares three different situations, of progressively greater severity and urgency.


The Survival Threshold is the total income required to cover: A) 100% of minimum food energy needs (2100 kcals per person per day), B) the costs associated with food preparation and consumption (i.e. salt, soap kerosene and/or firewood for cooking and basic lighting), C) any expenditure on water for human consumption

This is the line below which intervention is required to save lives.

The Livelihoods Protection Threshold represents the total income required to sustain local livelihoods. This means total expenditure to:A) ensure basic survival (see above),B) maintain access to basic services (e.g. routine medical and schooling

expenses),C) plus sustain livelihoods in the medium to longer term (e.g. regular purchase of

seeds, inputs vet drugs); D) locally acceptable standard of living (e.g. coffee, pepper, etc)

This is the line below which an intervention is required to maintain existing livelihood assets


Documents

Seasonal Assessment Training Household Economy Analysis: The Analytical Framework Livelihoods Integration Unit (LIU) Early Warning & Response Department