Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001 WTGS Symposium Midland, Texas October 25, 2001 Geoscience Technology for the Coming Gas Economy Scott W. Tinker & Eugene Kim

Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001

WTGS SymposiumMidland, Texas

October 25, 2001

Geoscience Technology for the Coming Gas Economy

Scott W. Tinker & Eugene KimBureau of Economic Geology

The University of Texas at Austin


Introduction

Energy consumption in the U.S. and the world has shown a very predictable trend of “decarbonization.” Future U.S. energy consumption will be increasingly dominated by natural gas.

Research and technology have been there all the way, responding as needed to the forces of supply, price, policy, and efficiency.

Basic energy research should focus on advanced characterization for enhanced oil production and advanced fracture, salt, and seismic analysis for natural gas exploration and development.


QAc9841c

After Hefner, 1993

Nonsustainableeconomic growth

Sustainableeconomic growth

Whaleoil

Petroleum oil

Methane

“City Gas”hydrogen

Oil and natural gasliquids

Coal

Solids Gases

Liquids

HydrogenWood

100

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tag

e o

f to

tal

mar

ket

Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

World Energy ConsumptionC

ivil

War

WW

I

WW

II

Ara

b O

il E

mb

arg

o


QAc9841c

EIA production data

100

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tag

e o

f to

tal

mar

ket

Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

U.S. vs. World Energy Consumption

Liquids

Solids

Gas, nuclear, renewables

Natural gas


QAc9841c

EIA production data

100

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tag

e o

f to

tal

mar

ket

Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Liquids

Solids Gases, Nuclear,Renewables

1970Forecast

U.S. Energy Consumption

Actual

Gases, nuclear,renewables

1970


QAc9841c

EIA Production Data

100

80

60

40

20

0

Per

cen

tag

e o

f to

tal

mar

ket

Year1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Liquids

Solids

Gases, nuclear,renewables

SupplyPrice PolicyTechnology


Oil price Gas price

1970


100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

Liquids (Oil)

Solids (wood, coal) Gases (natural gas, hydrogen, nuclear, renewables)

1910191519201925193019351940194519501955196019651970

197519801985199019952000



0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Year

U. S

. Co

ns

um

pti

on

(%

)

Coal, Wood, Waste

Oil

Gas, Nuclear, Renewables

% of Total Market

EIA historical production data

U.S. Energy Consumption 50-Year Forecast

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Year

U.S

. co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

Btu

)

Coal, wood, waste

Oil


Total consumption

0.002.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Bb

o1 Quad ~ 1 Tcf

Btu consumptionEIA forecast

Conservation


EIA historical production data

U.S. Energy ConsumptionDrivers

Solids•Efficiency Poor•Environmental Costs

Oil•Economic Impact of Price Fluctuations•National Security Impact of Import Ratio•Efficiency Less Than Gas•Environmental Impact Moderate

Methane, hydrogen, nuclear, renewables•Efficiency high•Economic stability improved•National security risks lower•Environmental impact lower•Methane abundant •Hydrogen sustainable•Current cost/benefit is lower•Practical limits (10%)•Hidden environmental costs

Coal, wood, waste

Oil


Total0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Year

U.S

. co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

Btu

)

0.002.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Bb

o


OilOil

Exploration

Access

Assess

Development

Reservoir characterization

Field management

Environment


Impact of Oil Research


Multifield portfolio

Technology wedge

Pro

du

ctio

n

0Time (yr)

5 10 15

Theoretical Impact onLong-Term Oil Decline


EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)

1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997

Year

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

10000000

Ave

rag

e d

aily

oil

pro

du

ctio

n (

bb

l)

U.S. Oil Production

2001 2005 2009 2013 2019

~ 2,000,000,000 barrels over 20 years$50 billion gross oil value ($25 oil)

Technologywedge


L48 Unconventional onshore

Tight gas, shale gas, CBM

EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)

Deep-water+subsalt offshore

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Year

An

nu

al

na

tura

l g

as

pro

du

cti

on

(B

cf)

U.S. Natural Gas


“Unconventional” Gas“Unconventional” Gas

Tight gas

Shale gas

Coalbed methane

Deep gas

Subsalt gas

Gas hydrates

Low-pressure gas


Impact of Natural Gas Research

Tight Gas

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Bcf

GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database. DOE personal communication.

*Advanced stimulation technology*Greater Green River Basin shale gas*Piceance Basin

DOE

GRI

Federal alternative fuels production

credit for unconventional gas

State of Texas tight gas incentives


600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9715c

Bu rea uo fEc on o mi c

Geo lo g y

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE TIGHT GAS BASINS(technically recoverable resources)

Data: NPC (2000); * based on estimates of NPC (1993); San Juan Basin tight gas resource included with oil field reserve appreciation and new fields in NPC (2000).

Rocky MountainForeland(13.7 Tcf)

Midcontinent(16.9 Tcf)

Arkla-Tex(29.8 Tcf)

Appalachian(18.3 Tcf)

Permian Basin(19.5 Tcf)

Texas GulfOnshore(9.1 Tcf)

San Juan(5.6 Tcf)*


0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

1980 1985 1990 1995

Bcf

Impact of Natural Gas Research Shale Gas

GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database; DOE personal communication.

Antrim Shale researchAppalachian Basin shales

DOE(1976-1992)

GRI


600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9712c

Ft. WorthBarnett Shale

(7.2 Tcf)

IllinoisNew Albany

(2.9 Tcf)Cincinnati

Arch(2.2 Tcf)


Data: NPC (2000)


Geo lo g y

Michigan Antrim(16.9 Tcf)

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEVONIAN SHALE BASINS(technically recoverable resources)


0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1980 1985 1990 1995

Bcf

Impact of Natural Gas Research Coalbed Methane

DOE

GRI

GRI, 1999, GRI’s Gas Resource Database; DOE personal communication.

$2

$1

Wel

lhea

d p

rice

($/

Mcf

)Federal alternative fuels production

credit for unconventional gas


600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9714c


Geo lo g y

Powder River(24.0 Tcf)

Hanna-Carbon (4.4 Tcf)Uinta & Piceance(5.5 Tcf)

San Juan(10.2 Tcf)

Northern Appalachianand PA Anthracite

(10.6 Tcf)

Black Warrior(4.4 Tcf)

Raton-Mesa (3.7 Tcf)

Alaska(Bering River, North Slope,

Chignik and Herendeen Bay)(57.0 Tcf)

SW Coal Region(5.8 Tcf)

Data: PGC (2001)

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE COALBED METHANE BASINS(total most likely resources)


600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9716c


Geo lo g y

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP-WATER GAS BASINS(total most likely resources)

Data: PGC (2001)

Pacific Slope(8.9 Tcf)

Louisiana Slope(12.4 Tcf)

Texas Slope(4.3 Tcf)

Eastern Gulf Slope(7.6 Tcf)Gulf of Mexico OCS

(47.7 Tcf)


600 km0

400 mi0

N

QAc9713cData: PGC (2001)


Geo lo g y

MontanaFolded Belt

(5.2 Tcf)

Wind River(5.0 Tcf)

Greater Green River(8.4 Tcf)

San Joaquin(9.0 Tcf) Anadarko, Palo Duro

(17.7 Tcf)Permian(12.9 Tcf)


LA, MS, AL Salt(15.8 Tcf)

Louisiana Gulf Coast(14.5 Tcf)

TexasGulf Coast(14.3 Tcf)

MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP (>15,000 ft) GAS BASINS(total most likely resources)



Geo lo g y

Natural Gas Resources

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Cumulativeproduction

Provenreserves

Unproven

Tec

hn

ical

ly r

eco

vera

ble

(T

cf)

Lower 48 total

Canada total

SW



Geo lo g y

SW Natural Gas Resources

Gas Reserves by Region

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000 Permian Basin

San Juan Basin

Texas Gulf Coast Onshore

Arkla-East Texas



Geo lo g y


Unconventional versus Conventional Gas Reserves

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Res

erve

res

erve

s (B

cf)

Conventional

Unconventional



Geo lo g y


Unconventional Gas Production in Permian Basin

0

100

200

300

400

500

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Pro

du

ctio

n (

Bcf

)

Tight gas


Oil and Gas Geoscience Research

• High-frequency stratigraphy: seismic & outcrops

• 4-C 3-D, 4-D, and 9-C 3-D seismic data

• Rock physics

• 3-D matrix and fracture modeling & simulation

• Salt modeling and characterization

• Deep-water sedimentation

• High-level basin and play analysis

• Visualization to achieve integration

• Advanced technology transfer


High-Frequency Stratigraphy 3-D Seismic Attributes


High-Frequency Stratigraphy


High-Frequency Stratigraphy Ortho-Photo Draped on DEM


High-Frequency Stratigraphy ILRIS Laser Image


Rock PhysicsBEG Austin Core Warehouse

Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001 QAb9145(b)c

Direction ofwave propagation

SH

X

Z

SV

A

P

A

A

X

Z

X

Z

X

Z

X

Z

X

Z

Reflectedray path

Particledisplacementvector

9-C 3-D Seismic Data

P, SV, and SH


0° 30°

60°

90°

QAc8431c

N

C1

270° 90°

0°

180°

°2 0

1 0

07 ° 9

0°

8 °

Interval 1

Interval 2

W E

N

S

W E

N

S00 300 m

1000 ft

FMI logfracture azimuths

SV maximumreflectivity

Vertical wellAzimuth directionSuperbin

9-C 3-D Seismic Data

Fracture Azimuth


Fractures

Weber SandstonePlan View Fracture Traces

CL

F2F2

F1F1

Frontier Sandstone, WyomingPlan View Fracture Traces

Air Photograph

10 m


Fracture Strike Mapping Microfractures Predict Large Fractures

Fracture StrikeLaubach et al., 2000, The Leading Edge

Laubach, 1997, AAPG BulletinEast Texas, Travis Peak Formation


Previously InvisibleMicrofractures

Transmitted Light CLOutcrop sample, Poland. Conventional CL.

Fracture

Match point


Fracture IntensityQuantitative Data for Mapping and Flow Modeling

Fra

ctu

re I

nte

nsi

ty

Marrett et al., 1999, Geology.Stowell, 2000, SPE.West Texas, Ozona Canyon


Salt Research

Field Studies

Seismic Studies

Numerical Models

Physical Models

Martin Jackson, AGL, BEG

Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 20010 13,000

Time (ms)

0 2 mi

0 2 km

QAc8574c

Tiger ShoalTiger Shoal

Target 5Target 5

ShaleShale

Target 4Target 4

Target3

Target3

Seismic Deep-Water AnalysisRMS Amplitude


L1700

L1600

L1500

L1400

L1300

L1200

L1100T100 T300 T500 T700 T900 T1100 T1300

Relic deltaRelic delta

TargetsTargets

IVFIVF

IVFIVF

IVFIVF

Bright spotsBright spots

Target 3Target 3

IVF Incised valley fill- +

Amplitude

QAc6999c

Seismic Deep-Water AnalysisStratal Slicing

Exposedshelf


Summary

ResourcesSupply, economics, efficiency, and technology have

driven U.S. policy and consumption trends. U.S. consumption will be increasingly dominated by

natural gas and hydrogen.

Research• Advanced characterization for enhanced oil recovery • Fracture, salt, and seismic analysis for gas exploration

and field development• Improved basin and play assessment for oil and gas

access and field acquisition• CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery• Visualization for improved integration• High-impact technology transfer


Happy hunting….And, as always, thanks!

Documents

Scott W. Tinker, BEG, 2001 WTGS Symposium Midland, Texas October 25, 2001 Geoscience Technology for the Coming Gas Economy Scott W. Tinker & Eugene Kim