Scientific tools for coastal zone management

Hans von Storchwith the help of Burkard Baschek, beate ratter and Tamara Kleber-Janke

Non-university public research centre

Staff: > 900, located in Geesthacht/Hamburg and in Teltow/Berlin

Funding: > 90 M € p.a.: 9:1 split between Federal and Regional (Länder) authorities, e.g. Hamburg

National Lab within the Helmholtz-Association (Budget: > 3 Bn €)

HZG- Research Portfolio:

1/3 Coastal and Climate Research, 2/3 Materials Research:

Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG)Centre for Materials and Coastal Research

Preserve resources and guarantee mobility through light-weight and multifunctional materials

Enable regenerative therapiesthrough new biomaterials

Help society to cope with natural and anthropogenic changes in global

and regional coastal systems

Who is this?

Hans von Storch

Director of Institute for Coastal Research,

Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG),

near Hamburg,

Professor at the Meteorological Institute of

Hamburg University

Works also with social and cultural scientists.

Coasts have undergone significant

changes in the past centuries and

decades. In the past, the usage of the

coastal seas was mostly unregulated.

Nowadays a detailed planning of the

German coastal sea area is prepared,

with regulated usage in different parts,

such as natural preservation, shipping,

tourism and wind energy.

This transformation did not happen

without broad public debates and

conflicts. These conflicts were based on

very different perceptions of what the

coast is and how it should be used.

Coasts

Coasts – contested usages

• Coasts need to be managed.• Management needs a scientific basis.• Task I: Short term events and emerging risks –

monitoring and short term prediction.• Task II: Determining, describing and assessing ongoing

and possible future long-term change.

Contribution of coastal science to decision making in coastal issues

Land-Meer-InteraktionenRäumliche und zeitliche VariabilitätTrendsEvents, Risiken

Photo: NASA

NordseeCOSYNA (Coastal Observing

System for Northern and Arctic

Seas) is a synoptic observing

system for the environmental status

of the North Sea. Numerous

automatic in situ and satellite

observations are continuously

assimilated in models, thus

producing hourly real-time forecasts

of high quality.

The data are used by science,

industry, and authorities.

Task I: Monitoring the state and the change of the coastal environment

Land-Meer-InteraktionenRäumliche und zeitliche VariabilitätTrendsEvents, Risiken

Photo: NASA

Nordsee Actual state & forecast:

•current

•waves

•salinity

•temperature

•turbidity / chlorophyll

Application:

•oil spills/chemical accidents

•toxic algal blooms

•wind farms

Operational COSYNA Products

Land-Meer-InteraktionenRäumliche und zeitliche VariabilitätTrendsEvents, Risiken

Photo: NASA

Nordsee

Product Currents

Task II: Determining, describing and assessing on-going and possible future long-term change

• Coastal conditions and utilizations are permanently changing.• Part of the recent change is due to natural processes, another part is man-made.• Risks in and utility of coastal zones undergo variations because of these changes. • Among the drivers of this change are local modifications (such as dredging

shipping channels) and global changes (in particular climate change)• Societal decisions (mitigation / adaptation) on how to deal with such changing

risks and utility are political, and will be based on social values (such as economic growth, protection of environmental conditions).

• Coastal science contributes to the knowledge base of such decisions, by explaining ongoing and possible future changes, their links to drivers, and options/perspectives for the future.

• Coastal science is not part of the decision process itself.

We need knowledge about past conditions and their change

-of parameters such as wind, precipitation, ocean waves, currents etc.

-for determining risks (of high waves, for instance), of opportunities (frequency of low wind episodes)

We need also scenarios of possible future conditions (years, decades in advance) – not forecasts, but possible, plausible conditions which may emerge if a certain measure is taken (accelerated climate change; installation of may wind turbines, adding erosion protection measures …)

We describe and analyse past change for 1948-today, and scenarios for the time period 2010-2100 in our data bank CoastDat. This system can also be implemented in any other part of the world

Red: buoy, yellow: radar, blue: wave model run with REMO winds

wave direction

significant wave height

[days]

[days]

Storm surge height scenarios 2030, 2085

Only the effect of changing

weather conditions is

considered, not the effect of

water works such as dredging

the shipping channel.

The CoastDat-effort

at the Institute for Coastal Research@HZG

Long-term, high-resolution reconstructions (60 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years)

Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe. Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and

regional transport of anthropogenic substances. Extension to other regions and to ecological parameters.

Applications many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and

risks) and shipbuilding company Public information

www.coastdat.de

Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]

Currents Power [W/m2]

Some applications

- Ship design- Navigational safety- Offshore wind- Interpretation of measurements- Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution- Ocean energy- Scenarios of storm surge conditions- Scenarios of future wave conditions

What are causes of ongoing change?

• Often a number of drivers are causing change in coastal regions, e.g. climate

change, euthropication, pollution, overfishing, mofications of shipping

channels etc.

• In the public debate, often claims about the cause for a change is amde

according to the utility of the political argument. - social constructions of

causes

• However, an analysis of the dominant causes is needed. – scientific

constructions.

Natural hazards as social construction- an example from Guyana

Flooding in Guyana:

1. Historical settlement strategy and structure (ca. 90% of the population and ca. 75% of GDP in coastal plains, sugar & rice).

2. Sugar industry in decline, enhanced lumber production.3. Heavy flooding in recent years4. Standard explanation of the flooding: Global sea level rise5. More detailed analysis reveals: Lack of maintenance of the

drainage system due to decline of the sugar industry6. Lack of national disaster management programs and no

political responsibility for the unmaintained drainage canals7. Deforestation of the hinterland leads to increased runoff

Hazards exist in the context of economic interest, perception, social relations and political influences.

Joining forces

Climate and Coastal Research is present in a solid and competent network in Hamburg-in research Centers, such as the Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, the Max-Planck Institute of Meteorology or the German Climate Computing Centre.-in universities, such as the Technical University of Hamburg, the Hafen City University or the University of Hamburg-in federal authorities with responsibilities for monitoring, planning, and authorizing - in particular the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, the German Weather Service and the Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute.

These institutions form the core of the KlimaCampus.

Cooperation with Uruguayan partners is welcome, and could be established using the support by the German Academic Exchange Program (DAAD) or the Humboldt Foundations (AvH).

Summary

1. Coastal and climate science are needed for a region like the metropolitan

region of Hamburg to face the challenges and chances of climate change

and modernization.

2. One scientific challenge is the provision of technology and methods to

describe the present change and the short term future for dealing with

operational off-shore and on-.shore activities, as well as with managing

catastrophic events (incl. oil spills)

3. Another challenge is the analysis of ongoing change, the identification of

dominant causes, and the derivation of options for future development.

4. Building a cooperation with Uruguayan partners is welcome.