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Scientific systems in support of the sustainable development of fisheries and aquaculture
CSIRO MARINE & ATMOSPHERIC
Dr Andy Steven Research Director CSIRO Australia
Teleconnections across the Pacific 2 |
El Nino – and our evolving understanding
Patterns : Weakening of trade winds Increase in SST; faster towards equator Thermoclines more shallow and stronger gradients Strongest events in Eastern Pacific
Recognise 3 Types of EL Nino Events: Central (Modoki) –increasing frequency Southeast Pacific Hybrid
Significant Consequences for fish and fisheries Fish migrations Variable productivity
We Need Regional collaborations Regional scale information needed to drive collaborations:
Marine litter
impacts
Tsunami warning systems
Aquaculture planning
Regional Fisheries
Outline • Fisheries Sustainability and Climate Challenge In Australia
• Australia – a Marine Nations • Fisheries trends • Climate change
• Our Approach • Principles and Approaches • Tools and Technologies
• Observational Technologies • Marine Spatial Planning • Modelling • Forecasting • Information Systems
• Conclusions and Opportunities
Example Applications • SE fishery Australia
• Sustainable Harvest Strategy
• eReefs • an information system
for the Great Barrier Reef
• SIMA-Austral • An information system
for the Chilean Aquaculture industry
CSIRO
El record de logros: Principales invenciones
4. EXTENDED WEAR CONTACTS
2. POLYMER BANKNOTES
3. RELENZA FLU VACCINE
1. Fast WLAN Wireless Local Area Network
5. AEROGARD 6. TOTAL WELLBEING DIET
7. RAFT POLYMERISATION
8. BARLEYMAX 9. SELF TWISTING YARN
10. SOFTLY WASHING LIQUID
Oceans and Atmosphere Capabilities
• Biologist & ecologists
• Quantitative & qualitative modellers
• Geneticists
• Physicist & biogeochemist
• Math & statisticians
• Bioeconomists
• Social scientists
• Software, system engineers & programmers
• Mechanic, electronic & fluid dynamic engineers
• Communicators
• Business managers
8 |
INDIAN OCEAN
SOUTHERN OCEAN
PACIFIC OCEAN
Tasman Sea
Timor Sea
Coral Sea
Indian Ocean Dipole
Southern Annular Mode
ENSO
Australia is a marine nation “…with significant climate and weather challenges”
• Australia’s EEZ – 3rd Largest in the World • bounded by 3 Oceans • Subject to Climate Extremes
Playing our cards right… benefits and beneficiaries of Australia’s Blue Economy
|
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Year 1956 1963 1970 1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012
Pro
du
ctio
n (
TM, T
on
ela
das
)
Chile
Australia
Production Pesquera
FAO production statistics database
$1.4 bn ~ $538/t
$2.4 bn ~ $4,800/t
En 2014
Fisheries relative catch and status
Observed change in Habitats
• Habitat loss
• Changes in productivity, mortality and variability
Oberved Ecological Changes
• 6 months of cold water now 3 months (in 15 y)
• Productivity changed and is more variable
• 45 new species
Vulnerability Analysis
Pecl et al. (2011)
High
Medium
Low
Regulators are trying to create robust climate rules (initial vulnerability assessments and projections with 5 year review)
Observing change
Australian Fisheries & Actions
www.redmap.org.au Oliver et al. (2017)
e.g. Marine heat wave (2015-2016) Citizens can report species range extensions
What Management Decisions?
Types of manager’s decisions
Decisions about thresholds: It is time to act?
Decisions with fixed options: Which is best?
Decision about potential options: What is possible?
Fischhoff and Davis 2013
Better Access to Information
Forecasting
Reporting
Analysis
Integration
Aggregation
Quality assurance
Collation
Monitoring
Distribution
Done poorly to well
Done poorly
Done well, where done
Drowning in Data, Gasping for Information
Value Chain for Sustainable Observing Value Chain
Holding pens
Killing plants
Processing plants
Market
Hatchery
Sea cages Tools and
products
Decisions
Dat
a se
rvic
es
SIFA RNA (register)
Caligus
Laboratorios (laboratories)
Estructuria (structures)
Existencia (stocks)
Mortalitdados (mortalities)
Movimentos (movements)
INFAs Proyecto (Project)
Estaciones muestreo (sampling stations)
Granulometria (particle size)
Redox
Macrofauna
Columna de agua (water column)
Contingencias (contingency event)
Models
Environmental monitoring
Other data
Dat
a in
gest
ion
Change Concepts of Data Integration
Systems View
Biophysical
Food web
Oceanography & geochemical
Climate
Industries, coastal landuse, outfalls
Transport
Benefits, costs & markets Social networks, culture
and employment
Social & Economics
Lobby groups
Decision rules
Management actions
Fisheries & Aquaculture
Administration
Industry statistics Sampling
Evaluation
Uncertainty in predictions & communication of uncertainty
• Science is uncertain, management too.
• Important to communicate uncertainty effectively and transparently.
• Communicating scientific uncertainty requires:
• Identify types of decision that need to be made and relevant uncertainties
• Assessing their magnitude and drafting possible messages (institutional commitment)
Thébaud et al. 2017
From reaction & assessment to Forecasting Oceanographic conditions
Extreme Events Biogeochemical Conditions
Ecological Events
Social and Economic
Global Shocks
Building an End-to End Information System
1. More Efficient and Effective observations
2. Data Assimilation & Process Understanding
3. Model Coupling & Orchestration
6. Data access &
Effective Communication
5. Management Strategy Evaluation
4. Ecosystem models
Management Strategy Evaluation
Decision Table
Management strategy
Ob
ject
ives
Catch
Monitoring & industry data
Assessment
Quota setting & management
Fish stocks
Fishing fleet
Year
Bio
mas
s
Results Model
Option 1
Option 2
Ranked
results
Define the
objectives
Component Models
Discovery
External data inputs Streamflow Catchment data Access-A OceanMAPS
Op
erat
ing
fram
ewo
rk
Valid
ation
& verificatio
n system
Relocatable coastal models Ocean Colour
A N N
A L M I
Regional models
BoM forecast products
Catchment models
Tech
nic
al
inte
rop
erab
ility
(s
tan
dar
ds,
fo
rmat
s)
Org
anis
atio
nal
in
tero
per
abili
ty
Lega
l in
tero
per
abili
ty
(SLA
s)
Sem
anti
c in
tero
per
abili
ty
(vo
cab
ula
ries
)
Valid
ation
M
od
el verification
D
ata verification
Services Scenarios
land practice change
climate change
Reporting
Compliance & assessment
Reef Report Card
Incident response
oil spills
maritime
Forecasting
floods/storms
bleaching events
safe navigation
Concept of an operational Information System
What Tools for we have/need?
Sensors
Data Management and Access
Fisheries Management Tools
Marine Spatial planning and Integrated Assessments
Models –various
Social License
Access to Sentinel Products
10–3000 m depth
30–6000 m depth
<500 m altitude
<6000 m altitude
<20 km altitude
>500 km altitude
<100 m depth
Autonomous Surface Vessel (ASV)
Example: ASV Ltd C Cat
Quadcopter Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Example: Insitu Pacific CT110
Low-Altitude Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Example: Insitu Pacific ScanEagle
High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE)
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Example: Boeing Phantom Eye
Remote Sensing Earth Observation Satellite
Example: Boeing Phoenix 502
Very Large Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV)
Example: Boeing Echo Seeker
Large Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV)
Example: Boeing Echo Ranger
Small Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV)
Example: UCSD Stingray
Anchored Communication
& Sensing Buoy
Communication Satellites
Shore-Based
Communication
Infrastructure
Manned Research Vessel
• AV Launch/Recovery
• AV Communication Hub
Ocean Glider
Example: IMOS Slocum Glider
Free-Drifting Profiling Floats
Example: IMOS ARGO
Sensorisation of the Oceans
Better Observations: Australia-India Joint Indian Ocean Bio-Argo Project “Characterising the changing Indian Ocean’s biogeochemistry and ecology using revolutionary new robotic tools”
Sustained Observing of Marine Ecosystems
Biochemical tracers and genomics to monitor changes in trophic interactions Biochemical tracers and genomics to monitor changes in trophic interactions
“Smart” tags and acoustic telemetry
Biological, acoustic and optical methods for measuring mid-trophics
Underwater visual systems - autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), -baited remote underwater video surveys (BRUVS)
El Cambio Climático y la aplicación del enfoque ecosistémico | Patricio A. Bernal 30 |
IMOS SOOP Bioacoustics mesopelagic monitoring since 2010 –Proof of concept phase 2005 – 2009
Kloser et al 2009 ICES JMS • Set up to inform inter-annual
to decadal variations in basin scale ecosystems, initialise and assimilate into end to end ecosystem and carbon models
• Metrics of the spatial and temporal distribution of scattering layers – surrogate for distribution and abundance of midtrophic macrozooplankton and micronekton organisms.
Earth Observation the next 5 years
• New GEO stationary Satellites
• Cubesats • New SAR satellites • UAVs
Landsat 9
(2020)
PACE (2022)
NISAR (2022)
SWOT (2021)
TEMPO (2018)
JPSS-2 (NOAA)
RBI, OMPS-Limb (2018) GRACE-FO (2)
(2017)
ICESat-2
(2017)
CYGNSS
(2016) IS
S SORCE, (2017)
TCTE (NOAA)
NISTAR, EPIC (2019)
(NOAA’S DSCOVR) QuikSCAT (2017)
EO-1 (2017)
Landsat 7 (USGS)
(~2022)
Terra (>2021
)
Aqua(>202
2)
CloudSat (~2018)
CALIPSO (>2022)
Aura (>2022)
SMAP (>2022)
Suomi NPP (NOAA)
(>2022)
Landsat 8 (USGS)
(>2022)
GPM (>2022)
OCO-
2 (>2022
)
GRACE
(2) (2018)
OSTM/Jason 2
(>2022) (NOAA)
(Pre)Formulati
on Implementati
on Primary Ops
Extended
Ops
Earth Science Instruments on ISS: CATS, (2020)
LIS, (2017)
SAGE III, (2017)
TSIS-1, (2018)
ECOSTRESS, (2017)
GEDI, (2018)
OCO-3, (2018)
CLARREO-PF, (2020)
TSIS-2 (2020)
Sentinel-6A/B (2020, 2025)
MAIA (~2021)
TROPICS (~2021)
EVM-2 (~2021)
Formulatio
n Implementati
on Primary Ops
Extended
Ops
Increased Satellite Capability
Ship Detection for Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported Fisheries
Output: • NetCDF files of locations • Text files of location • KMZ files of locations
The Open Data Cube Initiative www.opendatacube.org
(Lewis et al., RSE 2017)
Open = open source
Data Cube = Aligned pixels ready for analysis
Analysis ready data (Level-2) ... Reduce processing burden on users
Analytics platform not just data storage
Paradigm shift ... Pixels vs files and bring the science/user to the EO data
Integration of multiple data sets supported
Multiple platform ... Desktop, HPC, Cloud
Community sharing/development of applications
Prototypes: Columbia, Kenya, Vietnam ...
Partners: GA, CSIRO, NASA, USGS
Data pipelines: Landsat, MODIS, SAR (PALSAR 1/2, ALOS-2, Sentinel-1), Himawari-8, ...
Assimilation of Satellite Ocean Colour (surface reflectance)
The eReefs Project
Bio-geochemical model
Model Satellite
Modeled Ocean Colour
(Courtesy: Dr Mark Baird & Team)
Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management
Developing and implementing harvest strategies
Ecological Risk Assessment for the effects of fishing
Spatial management to mitigate impacts of fishing
’Whole of Fishery’ management strategy evaluation
Ecosystem Exploitation Rate
Gulper Listening Stations
37 |
Levels Scientific Advice Management
Framework
Single
species
Ecosystem
Approach to
Fisheries
Ecosystem-
based fisheries
management
Ecosystem-
based
management
Manage-
ment Plan
Manage-
ment Plan
Integrated
evaluation
Plan of
the region
Climate Habitat Predadors
Climate Habitat Predators
Fisheries Development Energy
Water Dredging Sanctuaries Aquaculture Etc.
Eco-tourism Petroleum & gas
Integrated Assessments for EBM an interdisciplinary approach to assessment
Combines interprets and communicates knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines to policy
in such a way that an entire cause–effect chain of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective.
|
• Regional characterisation inventories, and baseline assessments.
• Regional multi-sector planning and management..
• Industry assessments • Industry Risk Assessment
and Foresighting: • Digital Integration
Types of integrated Assessment
Multi sector, multiple use planning
Brito, 2010
Models: Diversity of approaches
Christensen & Walters 2004, Travers et al 2008, Fulton 2010, Dunstan & Foster 2011, Blanchard et al 2017, Anthony et al 2013, WWF
Size based Species distributions Trophic
Agent based & hybrid models Bayesian networks
Ecosystem Based Management Toolkit Deployment
Whole of System Models (Atlantis)
Focused System Models (MICE)
Ecological Risk Assessment
Regional multi-sector planning & management
Undertaken to address potential issues of conflict amongst resource users, cumulative impact and social license, as well as opportunities for integration of industries
|
Fish multiple species
Very diverse and variable
Solutions necessary
Example from Australia: SESSF
Stak
eh
old
er e
nga
gem
en
t &
cap
acit
y b
uild
ing
II. D
eve
lop
Ad
apti
ve F
ish
eri
es
Man
age
me
nt
Fram
ewo
rk
Inte
rnat
ion
al r
evie
w
of
app
roac
he
s C
on
sid
er im
plic
atio
ns
in e
ach
M
SE &
ass
ess
men
t
I. Scoping & Initiation of participatory interactions
Qualitative systems analysis
Inventory socio-ecological data &
networks
V. System-level
Scenario Analysis (Atlantis)
Man
agem
ent
Str
ateg
y E
valu
atio
nS
cen
ario
An
alys
is
IV. Ecological
Risk Assessment
Qu
alita
tive
A
ss
es
sm
en
tQ
ua
nti
tati
ve
Asses
sm
en
tObjectives &
Hazards Analysis
Inventory units (taxa, habitats, communities)
Ma
na
ge
me
nt
Str
ate
gy
E
va
lua
tio
nIII. Harvest Strategy Design &
Evaluation
Options for an integrated fisheries management
National Implications
Year 5
Year 4
Year 3
Year 2
Year 1
Maximizing Fisheries Production-Value
Minimizing Environmental Impacts
Cost effective management
STAGE 3 Synthesis, Uptake & Extension
STAGE 2 Implementation
STAGE 1 Characterisation
Atlantis SE - Putting it together
AMBIENTE
HABITAT
PLANCTON
RED
ALIMENTARIA
DEPREDADORES
INDUSTRIAS
SOCIOECONÓMICO
ADMINISTRACIÓN
Atlantis SE - Putting it together
AMBIENTE
HABITAT
PLANCTON
RED
ALIMENTARIA
DEPREDADORES
INDUSTRIAS
SOCIOECONÓMICO
ADMINISTRACIÓN
Atlantis SE - Putting it together
AMBIENTE
HABITAT
PLANCTON
RED
ALIMENTARIA
DEPREDADORES
INDUSTRIAS
SOCIOECONÓMICO
ADMINISTRACIÓN
Atlantis SE - Putting it together
AMBIENTE
HABITAT
PLANCTON
RED
ALIMENTARIA
DEPREDADORES
INDUSTRIAS
SOCIOECONÓMICO
ADMINISTRACIÓN
2006 Status quo (quota management but ineffective)
Quotas on everything of value
Integrated management (zoning, equipment restrictions, fees)
Conservation driven (some open grounds, most area closed)
Scenarios
• Scientific understanding transformed into practical policy advice and tools to support fishing
Forecast for Fisheries & Management
• Forecasts to help industry efficiency
• Forecasts for planning and investment
• More data
• It must be cost effective and must reach decision makers ("Internet of things" and data visualization software)
Forecast for Fisheries & Management
Days Weeks Months Years
Reactive Seasonal New methods
& Projections
Quienes usan los pronósticos
estacionales?
• Atún (Este de Australia) • managers zonifican areas de pesca
– Hobday et al. (2010; 2011)
• Salmón Atlántico (Tasmania) Temperatura del agua en verano
• Camarón (Queensland) Lluvia y temperatur a del aire
• Corales (Queensland) Pronóstico de“blanqueammiento”para los managers
El Cambio Climático y la aplicación del enfoque ecosistémico | Patricio A. Bernal 53 |
CSIRO Environmental Modelling Suite (EMS)
SEDIMENT MODEL
METEOROLOGY
HYDRODYAMIC MODEL
Carbon Chemistry
Flagellates
Diatoms
Dinoflagellates
Microphyto-
benthos
Microzooplankton
Macrozooplankon
DIC DIN DIP (NO3 NH4 N2) DOC DON DOP
Labile detritus Benthic, Pelagic
Refractory detritus
C N P
Seagrass Macroalgae
P
N
Z
D
M
Wild-Allen et al., J.Mar.Sys. 2010
BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODEL
Atlantic Salmon
Connie
Connnectivity model to look at disease & contaminant spread
1. Choose the time period
2. Choose what is dispersing
3. Viusalise resulting pattern of dispersal
MARine Ecological Emmulator (MAREE) • Tool for managers & industry to explore future management
impacts on water quality
56 |
“The results of the eReefs research will significantly transform our ability to manage and protect the Great Barrier Reef and assist in its long-term preservation.”
$80.8 million worth of
benefits to 2025-26 benefit-cost ratio of over 10
eReefs: Transforming Management of the GBR
Informing Reef 2050 Plan
BoM Marine Water Quality Dashboard
Regional Models: Physics & Biogeochemistry
Assessing compliance to the guidelines using MODIS data
Uptake of Ocean Colour Science by BoM: The Marine Water Quality Dashboard
Berkelmans et al. (2002, 2004); Hoegh-Guldberg (1999).
Hydrodynamic Model Uses:
• Residual Circulation • Catchment Connectivity • Observing system design (decorrelation
length-scales) • Exposure maps (surface and bottom) • Shelf exchange • Mesoscale and sub-mesoscale features • crown of thorns and jellyfish dispersal • sediment, optical and biogeochemical
models • Upwelling
Salinity distribution
Pompeys and Swains
Model
simulations
% of anthropogenic
suspended sediment loads
removed from river loads
% of anthropogenic
nutrient loads removed
from river loads
Current-day 0 % 0 %
Scenario 1 10.1 % 40.5 %
Scenario 2 21.3 % 52.4 %
Scenario 3 32.6 % 64.3 %
Scenario 4 43.8 % 76.2 %
Pre-industrial 100 % 100 %
Pre-industrial Current (2011)
Sensitivity of GBR water quality indicators to catchment loads
Simulation Dates Season REGION
Offshore waters Mid-shelf waters Inshore waters
Cape
york
Wet
Tropics Burdekin
Mackay-
Whitsun
day Fitzroy
Burnett-
Mary
Cape
york
Wet
Tropics Burdekin
Mackay-
Whitsun
day Fitzroy
Burnett-
Mary
Cape
york
Wet
Tropics Burdekin
Mackay-
Whitsun
day Fitzroy
Burnett-
Mary
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 14 16 7 9 11 13 15 17
Preindustrial Jan2011 - April 2011 wet
Current day Jan2011 - April 2011 wet
Preindustrial May 2011 - Oct 2011 dry
Current day May 2011- Oct 2011 dry
Preindustrial Nov 2012 - April 2013 wet
Current day Nov 2012 - April 2013 wet
Preindustrial May 2013- Oct 2013 dry
Current day May 2013- Oct 2013 dry
Berkelmans et al. (2002, 2004); Hoegh-Guldberg (1999).
Coral Bleaching
Salinity distribution
Model – generated map of the aragonite saturation in the vicinity of 3,581 reefs of the GBR.
It is impossible to observe a at all reefs, but critical for optimal management.
a +/- 0.23
Berkelmans et al. (2002, 2004); Hoegh-Guldberg (1999).
Reef Carbon Chemistry
Berkelmans et al. (2002, 2004); Hoegh-Guldberg (1999).
Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen
Surface
31m
60m
1. river input 2. ocean
currents 3. reef/island
mixing
Patagonia Ecosystems >80,000 km coastline
SIMA Austral: An Information System for the Conservation Management of Chile’s Aquaculture
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000 1
99
5
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
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07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
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20
12
20
13
20
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20
15
20
16
20
17
Total Fish Molluscs Seaweed
Aquaculture Production of Chile
(source: Sernapesca)
• Rapid growth, and continuing… • High value US$ 3.8b, and up to 40% regional labor force) • Crises, impacts, • Race for space w 3,832 leases (@2016 - 1,776 salmon; 1,417 mollusks) • Need for evidence-based management
ISA
Strong El Niño
Strong El Niño
Met
ric
Ton
ne
s (M
T)
522,000 (07/17)
ENSO activity
In 2015, an algal bloom killed up to
20 percent of Chile’s farmed
salmon, some 25 million fish, pushing prices higher globally.
SIMA-Austral Integrated Information System
Strategic Reporting
compliance & assessment
Incident response
oil spills
Red/brown tide
Forecasting
floods/storms
disease outbreaks
climate change
regional plans production-mortalities
storm losses
Products and services
industry expansion
Data integration and access
Ingestion Standards Services Visualisation
Bio-economics
Socio-ecological
models
Connectivity models
Biophysical models
Risk model
Components
Internal/External data inputs
Weather data Global models Bathymetry Satellite
SIFA INFAs GIS Monitoring River flows
Systems View of User Needs
• Calibrating & development (other regions, river flows) • Kronoss I Survey (Oct 2017)
Los Lagos Hydrodynamic NRT model
Modelling Production Systems
MUSSELS
Weight (g)
Gro
wth
rat
e (g
w-1
)
Biomass or growth model
Biomass (t)
Gro
wth
rat
e (t
w-1
)
Biomass model
Disease free
Low mortality
High mortality
Uninfected
Weight (g)
Gro
wth
rat
e (g
w-1
)
Disease model
Growth model
SALMON
www.emg.cmar.csiro.au/www/en/emg/projects/SIMA-AUSTRAL.html
Caligus Dispersal
Copepodid 7 day
critical period
Dashboard For Early Warning Algal Blooms (HABs) • El Niño 10th March 2016
True colour Chlorophyll Sediments
+ Sentinel-3A OLCI Level-2 (geophysical) products.
Blue Economy- Innovation in Ocean Economy
•OECD value the ocean economy's contribution in 2010 at USD 1.5 trillion, or approximately 2.5% of world gross value added
•This value will double by 2030 and employ 40M FTE with significant growth in aquaculture, offshore wind, fish processing, and shipbuilding and repair
73.8 M tons produced by aquaculture by 2014 compared to 93.4 M tons by fisheries
Blue Economy Opportunities and Enabling Actions
• A healthy, resilient and productive marine environment
• Ocean governance
• Business development, investment and finance
• Infrastructure
• Technology, research and development
• Education and capacity building
Enabling Actions Sustainable Development Goals
Summary and Opportunities Key Points
• Technology (sensors, information system) is rapidly changing and becoming more available
• Sustained observational network and Operational Information systems are required • How to we collaborate across sectors, and regions to do this
• ERA and MSP are effective tools for dealing with ecosystem and multisector -based issues
• EBFM is a core aim of modern fisheries management • What indicators can be added to the standard resource management steps that will
simultaneously inform on EBFM? • How achieve EBFM without needing enormous amounts of data or new regulatory
institutions? • If we can avoid extreme climate change, then the biggest barriers have to do with
human responses- need systems thinking
Opportunities
• Collaboration around climate and fisheries between Peru and Australia • Other issues?
• Coordination across west coast LATAM countries for a shared forecasting system • Leveraging international activities (e.g. GEO & CEOS) and funding opportunities (e.g. GEF
& GCF)
Gracias!
OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE
Dr Andy Steven [email protected]
Useful Websites:
• www.earthobservations.org
• http:// geoblueplanet.com
• www.earthobservations.org/aogeoss.php
• https://www.opendatacube.org
• eReefs: http://www.ereefs.info
