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Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf Region Phase 2, Goal 3: Technical and Economic Information for Hawai’i Presentation to the IGP Stakeholder Council Matt Shields, Walt Musial, Patrick Duffy, and Michael Laurienti National Renewable Energy Laboratory January 22, 2021

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Page 1: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf Region

Phase 2, Goal 3: Technical and Economic Information for Hawai’i

Presentation to the IGP Stakeholder Council

Matt Shields, Walt Musial, Patrick Duffy, and Michael Laurienti

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

January 22, 2021

Page 2: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

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Agenda

Welcome and agenda (5 minutes)

NREL at a glance (5 minutes)

Project summary (10 minutes)

Task list, scope of work, and deliverables (10 minutes)

Cost model customization (up to 2.5 hours*)

Conclusions and next steps (5 minutes)

NREL | 2*Around 30 min per topic; may not need the whole time.

Page 3: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

NREL at a glance

Page 4: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Renewable Power

Page 5: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

NREL at-a-Glance

2,926 More than

900 Workforce, including World-class Partnerships Campus

219 postdoctoral researchers facilities, renowned with industry, operates as a

60 graduate students technology experts academia, and living laboratory

81 undergraduate students government

NREL | 5

Page 6: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

\\\ \

Renewable Sustainable Energy Energy Systems Power Transportation Efficiency Integration

Solar Bioenergy Buildings Grid Integration

Wind Vehicle Technologies Advanced Hybrid Systems Manufacturing Water Hydrogen Security and Resilience

Government Energy Geothermal Management

NREL Science Drives Innovation

NREL | 6

Page 7: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

We Reduce Risk in Bringing Innovations to Market

• NREL helps bridge the gap from basic science to commercial application

• Forward-thinking innovation yields disruptive and impactful results to benefit the entire U.S. economy

• Accelerated time to market delivers advantages to American businesses and consumers

NREL | 7

Page 8: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Wind Energy

Enabling low-cost and grid-supporting wind energy by joining forces with DOE, industry, and interagency and state partners to advance scientific knowledge and technological innovation.

Research Challenge • Validate multiple wind technologies at scale to achieve an integrated energy system

that can meet the complex energy challenges of the future.

• Develop taller wind turbines with larger rotors to capture greater wind resources at higher elevations and lower the levelized cost of wind energy.

• Develop innovations for offshore wind such as floating platforms, scaling solutions for larger offshore designs, advanced turbine controls, and lightweight drivetrains.

• Optimize total power output across the entirety of a wind plant instead of at the individual-turbine level.

• Enable sustainable manufacturing through new materials and new manufacturing processes. NREL | 8

Page 9: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Project summary

Page 10: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Project objectives

NREL will use the most up-to-date floating offshore wind (OSW) technology information, cost model input assumptions for the unique Hawaiian market, and the Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer (ORCA) model to evaluate floating OSW costs in Hawai’i on a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) basis. NREL will produce visualization materials to convey the current state of floating OSW technology. The OSW cost and visualization information will be integrated into the Engage (heretofore HEVI) / Cambium (heretofore HAVEN) visualization tool.

NREL | 10

Page 11: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Overall project scope

This project will:

• Evaluate the costs of floating offshore wind in the region surrounding O’ahu

• Identify likely technologies, ports, grid connections, and logistics that may be used to build projects

• Produce visualization materials to convey what a floating wind project may look like

• Solicit feedback and information from key Hawaiian stakeholders, and use this information to inform cost modeling where possible

• Provide offshore wind cost information to HECO to assist with IGP planning

This project will not:

• Propose or develop a specific project

• Identify specific areas in which a project will be built

• Conduct detailed environmental, social, cultural, or workforce development studies

• Identify preferred vendors, suppliers, operators, or labor for potential offshore wind projects

• Estimate the impact of offshore wind on ratepayers relative to the current price of electricity

NREL | 11

Page 12: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Today’s goal

• Summarize key project tasks

• Discuss proposed modeling approach

• Solicit feedback, data, and comments on modeling approach

• Next steps:

– Transcribe notes and send to attendees for review and edits

– Incorporate results into cost modeling work as appropriate

– Summarize comments and feedback in final (public) report • Opportunity for some IGP Stakeholder Council members to act

as peer reviewers NREL | 12

Page 13: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

𝐹𝐶𝑅 ∗ 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝐸𝑥 + 𝑂𝑝𝐸𝑥 𝐿𝐶𝑂𝐸 =

𝐴𝐸𝑃𝑛𝑒𝑡

Levelized Cost of Energy

where:

LCOE = levelized cost of energy ($/MWh) FCR = fixed charge rate (%/year) CapEx = capital expenditures ($/kW) OpEx = average annual operational expenditures ($/kW/year) AEPnet = net average annual energy production (MWh/year)

LCOE is helpful to compare projects/technologies with different cash flow profiles and over time LCOE does not capture the locational and time value of the generated energy and other services

NREL | 13

Page 14: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Location

Wind speed, water depth, wave height, distance to port and grid infrastructure Technology limitations (e.g., water depth limits)

Cost Modeling Approach

LCOE is calculated as a function of:

Floating technology and plant characteristics

Turbine and substructure characteristics (e.g., turbine rating, power curve) Plant size and turbine spacing

Time

Anticipated learning in supply chain, growth in turbine rating and technology innovation

NREL | 14

Page 15: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Cost Modeling Approach

LCOE is calculated using NREL’s Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer (ORCA) o Deterministic cost model that estimates the LCOE (and its constituent cost and

performance components) of a commercial-scale offshore wind power plant o Used in prior regional cost analyses (e.g., for the U.S. Department of Energy and BOEM)

Baseline LCOE

Spatial data

Wind Speed

Grid Features

Bathymetry

Ports

Metocean

CAPEX module

OPEX module

AEP module

Learning Curve

Turbine Upsizing

Future LCOE

FLORISNREL BOS

Model / ORBITO&M Model

Assumptions

Turbine size

Cost input

Parametric spatial-cost relationship

Plant size

Turbine spacing

Etc.

Technology Innovation

NREL | 15 Notes: BOS – Balance of Station Model; ORBIT - Offshore Renewable Balance-of-system Installation Tool; FLORIS - FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State Model; see further details on following slides.

Page 16: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Task list, scope of work, and deliverables

Page 17: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Task 1: Coordination and interoperability

• Approach: – Set up a meeting with NREL,

BOEM, HECO, and HSEO to discuss data requirements for IGP modeling

– Provide preliminary cost model outputs to standardize data transfer

– Identify study areas for cost analysis

– Define roles and meeting frequency

• Deliverables – Meeting minutes

NREL | 17

Sample data outputs from ORCA model for 2020 California study areas

Page 18: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Task 2: Customize NREL cost models

• Approach: – Update Offshore Regional Cost

Analyzer (ORCA) model assumptions for Hawai’i • Ports • Asian supply chains • Grid connections • Wind resource • Hurricane upgrades

– Up-to-date market prices for OSW in Europe, Asia, and the US

– Recent technology trends • Deliverables:

– Powerpoint describing ORCA flow chart highlighting modules that will customized for Hawai’i modeling assumptions

Baseline LCOE

Spatial data

Wind Speed

Grid Features

Bathymetry

Ports

Metocean

CAPEX module

OPEX module

AEP module

Learning Curve

Turbine Upsizing

Future LCOE

FLORISNREL BOS

Model / ORBITO&M Model

Assumptions

Turbine size

Cost input

Parametric spatial-cost relationship

Plant size

Turbine spacing

Etc.

Technology Innovation

NREL | 18

Page 19: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Task 3: Cost model results

• Approach: – Run ORCA using updated Hawai’i

assumptions from Task 2 – Produce results at three study areas – Produce LCOE heat map for O’ahu region – Produce or identify:

• LCOE, CapEx, OpEx costs for baseline and future commercial operation dates

• High/medium/low cost ranges based LCOE for offshore wind in California for a commercial on global deployment

• Financing assumptions • Interconnection points • Relevant maps and graphics

– Share results with HECO and HSEO • Deliverable:

– Data input table for HECO PSIP – Documentation of assumptions – Heat maps and cost projections LCOE trajectories for five study sites in California NREL | 19

operation date in 2019 (left) and 2032 (right)

From Beiter, et al, 2020

Page 20: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Task 4: Engage/Cambium Visualization

• Approach:

– Define map areas for different buildout scenarios in study areas – for standard project sizes with boundaries in consideration of other area uses

– Create input geospatial layers for Cambium database

– Add cost, production, and capacity data from ORCA runs into Cambium database

– Allow Hawaii stakeholders to visualize tradeoffs between offshore wind development and alternative renewable energy land-use scenarios for wind and solar

• Deliverables:

– Visualizations of OSW buildout and corresponding land utilizations

– Memo documentation

• Value

– The Cambium visualizations will facilitate stakeholder discussion of tradeoffs among alternative RE and other land/sea uses

– Engage and Cambium will be integrated such that Cambium can display both buildout/capacity expansion and economic dispatch results from external sources (such as the PSIP) and from Engage

NREL | 20

Page 21: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Task 5: Conceptual floating wind graphics

• Approach

– Update graphics from unpublished 2016 report to reflect current technology trends

– Include in final report

• Deliverables

– Updated graphics and Turbine and mooring line geometry from resource assessment maps

unpublished 2016 report (assumes 8 MW turbines)

NREL | 21

Page 22: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Tasks 6-8: Reporting and dissemination

• Approach: – Identify peer reviewers with input from BOEM – Send draft report to peer reviewers – Track comments and document how addressed – Publish final report

• Deliverables: – List of peer reviewers – Draft report – Documentation of peer review comments and resolution – Published final report – Powerpoint presentation summarizing methodology and results – Presentation to BOEM – Presentation at a minimum of one conference

NREL | 22

Page 23: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Task Description Deliverable Deadline 1 Early coordination and interoperability with

Hawai’i processes Kickoff meeting minutes January 9, 2021

2 Customize NREL cost models for local opportunities and constraints

Internal Powerpoint outlining model assumptions March 9, 2021

3 Cost model results Data input table for HECO PSIP Documentation

April 9, 2021

LCOE heat maps Cost projection plots

4 Offshore wind visualization in Engage/HAVEN

Engage/HAVEN visualization memo documentation

June 9, 2021

5 Integration of 2016 Hawai’i Floating OSW Technical Specifications Study

Updated floating OSW graphics and resource assessment maps

July 9, 2021

6 Draft report and peer review List of peer reviewers Draft report

Documentation of peer review comments and resolution

List: June 9, 2021 Draft report: July 9, 2021 Peer review: August 23, 2021

7 Final report Final cost analysis report October 9, 2021

Top-level task summary from SOW

NREL | 23

Page 24: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Cost model customization for Hawai’i

Detailed discussion

Page 25: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Task 2: Customize NREL cost models

• Approach: – Update Offshore Regional Cost

Analyzer (ORCA) model assumptions for Hawai’i • Ports • Grid connections • Asian supply chains • Wind resource • Hurricane upgrades

– Up-to-date market prices for OSW in Europe, Asia, and the US

– Recent technology trends • Deliverables:

– Powerpoint describing ORCA flow chart highlighting modules that will customized for Hawai’i modeling assumptions

Baseline LCOE

Spatial data

Wind Speed

Grid Features

Bathymetry

Ports

Metocean

CAPEX module

OPEX module

AEP module

Learning Curve

Turbine Upsizing

Future LCOE

FLORISNREL BOS

Model / ORBITO&M Model

Assumptions

Turbine size

Cost input

Parametric spatial-cost relationship

Plant size

Turbine spacing

Etc.

Technology Innovation

NREL | 25

Page 26: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Study areas – background information

• Regions northwest, south, and east of O’ahu are better for offshore wind

– Consistent East-Northeast trade winds

– Steep slopes on northeast and southwest

• This study will use updated, publicly available wind resource data

– Optis, et al, 2020. O’ahu wind resource map using (old) Wind Toolkit data Source: Musial, et al, 2016 (unpublished) NREL | 26

Page 27: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Study areas – proposed approach

Existing Call Area

Proposed study area (appx) Technical resource area Appx. size of 600 MW project

• Compute LCOE at every grid point in the technical resource area – Boundaries:

• Federal waters • Water depth under 1300 m • Exclude marine sanctuaries

– Assume a constant (TBD) project capacity at each location

– Produce LCOE heat map • Report detailed costs at a

representative location within each of three study areas – Existing BOEM Call Areas – Additional study area east of

O’ahu • Geographic diversity • Boundaries will be

suggested by NREL NREL | 27

Page 28: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Study areas – impact on results

• Selection of specific study areas will affect the following results: – Annual energy production (wind speed

and direction) – Installation costs (distance to port) – Capital costs

• Export system (distance to grid) • Mooring and anchoring (water depth) • Array cables (water depth)

– Operation and maintenance costs (distance to port)

NREL | 28

Page 29: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Study areas – discussion and feedback

Questions and discussion

• Are there any particular sensitivities for each of these study areas?

– ie, cultural significance of Ka’ena Point

• What other activities take place in each area?

NREL | 29

Page 30: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Ports – background information

• Two Oahu ports are possibilities for assembly and O&M ports1

– Barber’s Point – Honolulu

• Requirements – Staging and storage area

– Assembly/manufacturing capabilities

– Accessibility to site

– Navigation channels

– Availability

Existing Call Area

Proposed study area (appx) Technical resource area Appx. size of 600 MW project

Honolulu harbor Barbers point harbor

NREL | 301Porter and Philipps, 2016

Page 31: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Ports – proposed approach

1. Review existing port assessments in literature

– Characterize limitations and required upgrades

2. Discuss proposed options with HDOT

3. Select either port (or consider ports on other islands if necessary)

– Assume a single port can support all buildout on O’ahu

Existing Call Area

Proposed study area (appx) Technical resource area Appx. size of 600 MW project

Honolulu harbor Barbers point harbor

NREL | 311Porter and Philipps, 2016

Page 32: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Ports – impact on results

• Selection of ports will primarily impact installation and O&M costs

– Driven by distance from port to project site

• This study is not considering port upgrades, workforce/jobs development, or detailed project installation logistics

– These may be discussed qualitatively in the final report

NREL | 32

Page 33: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Ports – discussion and feedback

Questions and discussion • Has there been any discussion about using

these (or other) ports for offshore wind? • What are the limitations of existing ports

for different construction and operation scenarios?

• What port resources/limitations should we be aware of?

• Who are other major port users (fishermen, military, cargo, tourism)?

• Is there a preference to use O’ahu ports over ports on other islands?

NREL | 33

Page 34: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Grid interconnection – background information

• Each potential sites in the technical resource area needs to connect to existing grid infrastructure

• Potential locations:

– Existing power plants

– Existing substations

– Closest transmission line

Existing Call Area

Proposed study area (appx) Technical resource area Appx. size of 600 MW project

Sample interconnection points

Export cable

NREL | 34

Page 35: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Potential interconnection at existing power plants

Oahu Power Plants (Wind and Solar Removed)

Power Plant Total Nameplate Capacity (MW) Technology

Location (City) Retirement

Kahe 609.7 Petroleum Liquids Kapolei

Waiau 474.6 Petroleum Liquids Pearl City

Kalaeloa Cogen Plant 299.4 Petroleum Liquids Honolulu

AES Hawaii 203 Conventional Steam Coal Honolulu Sep. 2022

Campbell Industrial Park 113 Petroleum Liquids Honolulu

H Power 97.3 Municipal Solid Waste Honolulu

Schofield Generating Station 50.4 Other Waste Biomass Honolulu

Tesoro Hawaii 20 Petroleum Liquids Honolulu

Hawaii Cogen 12.2 Petroleum Liquids Honolulu

HNL Emergency Power Facility 10 Other Waste Biomass Honolulu

Honolulu (Retired) 104.4 Petroleum Liquids Honolulu Retired

2014

Source: Energy Information Agency

NREL | 35

Page 36: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Substation Location (City) Substation Count

HONOLULU 12

KAPOLEI 5

WAHIAWA 5

MILILANI TOWN 4

HALEIWA 3

KAHUKU 2

PEARL CITY 2

WAIANAE 2

KANEOHE 1

KAWAILAO 1

WAIMANALO 1

NOT AVAILABLE 1

Potential interconnection at existing substations

Source: Energy Information Agency

Total 39

NREL | 36

Page 37: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Grid interconnection – proposed approach

1. Review existing grid infrastructure

2. Identify preferred interconnection point(s)

– Consider proximity to shore, planned retirement dates, connection capacity, etc.

3. Consult with HECO

4. Assign the appropriate interconnection point to each point in the resource area

Existing Call Area

Proposed study area (appx) Technical resource area Appx. size of 600 MW project

Sample interconnection points

Export cable

NREL | 37

Page 38: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Grid interconnection – impact on results

• Electrical infrastructure costs make up 13.0% of LCOE

– Driven by distance from project site to interconnection point

• This study is not considering costs to upgrade or construct interconnection points or bulk transmission lines

Floating wind project LCOE contribution Stehly, Beiter, and Duffy, 2020.

NREL | 38

Page 39: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Grid interconnection – discussion and feedback

Questions and discussion:

• Are there preferred power plants, substations, or other interconnection points for offshore wind projects?

• Are there planned upgrades or retirements of any existing infrastructure?

• Is there a preferred/suggested offshore wind project capacity?

• Has HECO developed any estimates for transmission/substation upgrade costs?

NREL | 39

Page 40: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Supply chains – background information

• ORCA assumes a US supply chain

• Hawai’i could source some components (probably platforms) from SE Asia

• NREL will conduct literature survey and discuss with industry to evaluate potential procurement costs

• Report baseline results assuming US supply chain

– Conduct sensitivity study around substructure costs to estimate impact of SE Asia supply chain

Windfloat semisubmersible platforms being fabricated in Fene, Spain for installation in Kincardine, Scotland Source: offshorewind.biz

NREL | 40

Page 41: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Supply chains – proposed approach

1. Conduct literature survey to understand implications of importing components from SE Asia – Platform fabrication in Korea vs US – Consider labor, commodities, tariffs,

existing infrastructure 2. Discuss findings with industry to evaluate

potential procurement costs 3. Develop scaling factors to reflect sourcing

components from alternate supply chains 4. Report baseline LCOE results assuming US

supply chain 5. Conduct sensitivity study around

substructure costs to estimate impact of SE Asia supply chain

Windfloat semisubmersible platforms being fabricated in Fene, Spain for installation in Kincardine, Scotland Source: offshorewind.biz

NREL | 41

Page 42: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Supply chains – impact on results

• Substructure and foundation costs make up over 20% of LCOE – Driven by material, fabrication,

transport, and installation costs

• Changes in substructure and foundation cost will affect LCOE – Sensitivity analysis – Baseline LCOE results will not be

Floating wind project LCOE contribution Stehly, Beiter, and Duffy, 2020.

% decrease affected in LCOE

• Discuss key supply chain considerations in report

Substructure CapEx (% of baseline cost) NREL | 42

Page 43: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Supply chains – discussion and feedback

Questions and discussion

• How important is local content for the viability of offshore wind in Hawai’i? Is this more important than lower cost supply chains?

Windfloat semisubmersible platforms being fabricated in Fene, Spain for installation in Kincardine, Scotland Source: offshorewind.biz

NREL | 43

Page 44: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Hurricane upgrades – background information

• Hawai’i is potentially at risk of hurricanes, which may require hurricane resilient offshore wind systems

– Turbines, platforms, moorings, anchors

• It is not clear if the frequency of major storms is sufficient to justify hurricane-class turbines

Source: National Hurricane Center NREL | 44

Page 45: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Hurricane upgrades – proposed approach

1. Consult with climatologists at NOAA to characterize the risk of major storms in Hawai’i

2. Consult with turbine manufacturers to determine if the storm risk requires a hurricane-class turbine

3. If appropriate, assign cost premiums for relevant components – Determine cost premiums

through industry outreach and rough order of magnitude analysis

Source: National Hurricane Center NREL | 45

Page 46: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Hurricane upgrades – impact on results

• Turbine costs make up 17.2% of LCOE

• Hurricane resilient designs will likely increase turbine cost and LCOE

• Discuss key drivers for hurricane resilient design in report

Floating wind project LCOE contribution Stehly, Beiter, and Duffy, 2020.

NREL | 46

Page 47: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Hurricane upgrades – discussion andfeedback

Questions and discussion

• Are other infrastructure projects (harbors, buildings, roads, etc) on O’ahu designed for hurricane resiliency?

• Is there a local perception that hurricanes are a significant risk?

Source: National Hurricane Center NREL | 47

Page 48: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Additional topics

• Are there additional aspects of the Hawaiian market that will significantly impact the cost of floating wind?

• Are there other topics of interest that have not been covered today?

NREL | 48

Page 49: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Summary and next steps

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Summary of discussion

• Review key topics

• Clarify any outstanding questions

NREL | 50

Page 51: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Action Responsible party Deadline

Distribute meeting minutes NREL Jan. 26 (Tuesday)

Provide edits, comments, or corrections to minutes

HECO, HSEO, IGP Stakeholder Council, BOEM

Jan. 29 (Friday)

Provide additional relevant resources, inputs, or feedback

(Email or phone call with NREL)

IGP Stakeholder Council Feb. 5 (Friday)

Complete cost model customization (literature survey,

analysis, outreach)

NREL March 9

Send draft report for peer review NREL July 9

Next steps and timeline

NREL | 51

Page 53: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Supplemental slides

Page 54: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

ORCA: Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer

A techno-economic model to calculate the spatial and temporal variation of offshore wind costs

Impact: Spatially resolved modeling evaluates the impact of

technological, financial, and O&M decisions on LCOE at a range

of potential offshore wind sites for operation dates up to 2032

Approach:

• Evaluate installation methods, cable configuration, CapEx

costs, and energy production based on bottom-up models

and state-of-the-art cost and wind resource data

• Provide insight into lowest-cost substructure choice at each

site

• Project future costs

• Facilitate sensitivity analysis via low computational expense

• Continuously update, expand, and review with industry to

reflect changing market conditions

ORCA

Cost curves

GIS data

Financial model

Cost trajectory model

Spatial and temporal LCOE results

NREL | 54

Page 55: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

ORCA: Offshore Regional Cost Analyzer

A techno-economic model to calculate the spatial and temporal variation of offshore wind costs

Recent results:

• Basis for high-impact national offshore wind strategy and

cost analyses 1,2

• Floating wind cost analysis for California, Oregon and

Maine 3,4

• Used to estimate representative costs in Cost of Wind

Energy Review 5

LCOE for offshore wind in California for a commercial operation date in 2019 (left) and 2032 (right)

References 1. Beiter, et al (2016) 2. Gilman, et al (2016) 3. Musial, et al (2019) 4. Musial, et al (2020) 5. Stehly and Beiter (2019)

NREL | 55

Page 56: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Task 3: Stakeholder engagement

• Approach – Engage with IGP Stakeholder Council to understand

environmental, cultural, government, and community perspectives on offshore wind in Hawaii

– Conduct webinar to outline goals, scope, and preliminary results of cost study

– Solicit feedback during webinar and via an online survey – Update relevant ORCA assumptions if possible – Summarize feedback in final report

• Deliverables – Webinar presentation given to IGP Stakeholder Council

NREL | 56

Page 57: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Visualization Approach

Cambium (HAVEN-inspired) visualization tool:

• HAVEN developed by HSEO and U of H Manoa LAVA with support from DOE WIP

• Visualizations of various land-use tradeoffs in energy capacity buildout, costs, dispatch, etc.

• HAVEN features being built into Cambium, an NREL visualization tool for similar purposes

• Cambium capable of displaying results from any capacity/cost/dispatch model

• Directly integrated with Engage to display Engage modeling results

HAVEN

Cambium

NREL | 57

Page 58: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

accessible collaborative communicative

Engage™️ empowers diverse stakeholder groups to understand and participate in transformational energy ecosystem decisions by enabling multi-energy-sectoral planning via web application.

It is built around Calliope, a tested and well-documented open-source modeling framework for energy system planning. Question it answers Target users • What future scenarios achieve

my energy and resilience goals? ✓ Developers, engineers, or

• What technologies will be used planners to get there? ✓ State or local policymakers

• How does the system behave ✓ Researchers in contingency situations?

Relevance

Usable for all locations; data and users needed to make use of tool

Service tiers

✓ Hosted and free to use ✓ Open source ✓ Supported

Training available

Documentation, publications and a webinar available online Oct.

Link

https://engage.nrel.gov

NREL | 58

Page 59: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

BOEM-NREL Interagency Agreement (IA) - Key Provisions

• DOE NREL shall perform the work and address the information and data requirements in accordance with the requirements of this IA. This IA sets forth the requirements, specifications, conditions, and restrictions which are binding to both Parties. Any discrepancies shall be settled in favor of this document.

• Changes and/or modifications to this agreement may be made at any time upon mutual written consent of the Parties [BOEM and NREL]. Modifications shall cite the Interagency Agreement identification number (M19PG00025) and shall set forth the exact nature of the change and/or modification. No verbal statements by any person and no written statements by anyone other than the BOEM warranted Contracting Officer shall be interpreted as modifying or otherwise affecting the terms of this agreement.

NREL | 59

Page 60: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

NREL | 60

Detailed schedule

Task MonthDec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

1: Coordination and interoperability

2: Customize NREL cost models

3: Cost model results

4: Offshore wind visualization

5: Conceptual floating wind graphics

6: Draft report and peer review

7: Final report

Page 61: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Data needs and interaction with HECO/HSEO

Page 62: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Data needs

• IGP data tables – Seek to create data that meets the needs of HECO and HSEO – Format and resolution of input data – Type of data – Analysis timeframe – NREL will provide a sample set of results after this meeting to iterate

on data transfer format • Local Hawaii contacts to help with ORCA model assumptions

– Grid interconnections, port solutions, supply chains/local content • Interaction with the Stakeholder Council

– Schedule meetings, prepare presentations, identify key contacts, discuss feedback, identify key questions to pose

NREL | 62

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Discussion

Page 64: Scientific and Technical Services for the Pacific Outer

Discussion topics

• Questions about roles

• Timelines and goals of IGP process

– Clarify data needs and format

• Clarify any deliverables

• Additional suggestions for dissemination

• Integration with other ongoing projects

• Identify next steps for interaction between NREL and HECO/HSEO

NREL | 64