•  Radio Frequency Emission from DNA

21st CENTURYSCIENCE & TECHNOLOGYWINTER 2010/2011  www.21stcenturysciencetech.com $5.00

• Malthusian Assault on DDT Refuted

•  The Great Sea Level Humbug

News NUCLEAR REPORT23 RUDOLFSCHULTEN’SHIGH TEMPERATUREREACTOR: A Technology Ready for Today Dr.UrbanCleve

30 Let’s Tell the Truth About Plutonium and Hanford MichaelR.Fox,Ph.D.

SPACE REPORT35 Space Technology Can Transform Africa MarshaFreeman INTERVIEW:DR.MOHAMEDARGOUN

37 ‘Bring the Benefits of Space to Developing Countries’

Departments EDITORIAL 2 Science and Morality: Celebrating Robert J. Moon at 100

4 NEWS BRIEFS

BOOKS AFeverishMalthusianDefends MalariaAsaNon-Problem40 The Fever: How Malaria Has Ruled Humankind For 500,000 Years bySoniaShah ReviewedbyDonaldRoberts,Ph.D.

LookingatMan’sRoleIntheUniverse

47 Talking About Life: Conversations on Astrobiology byChrisImpey ReviewedbyOyangTeng

21st CENTURYSCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Vol.23,No.4 Winter2010/2011

Features

LUCMONTAGNIER’SREVOLUTIONINBIOLOGY 6 New Evidence for a Non-Particle View of Life LaurenceHecht

France’sleadingvirologist,LucMontagnier,demonstratesthe emissionoflow-frequencyelectromagneticwavesfrombacterial DNAsequences,andtheapparentabilityofthesewavestoorganize nucleotidesintonewbacterialDNA.

THEGREATSEA-LEVELHUMBUG12 There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise! Nils-AxelMörner

WhiletheIPCCanditsboyscoutspresentwilderandwildersea levelpredictionsforthenearfuture,therealobservationalfacts demonstratethatsealevelhasremainedvirtuallystableforthe last40-50years.

On the Cover: Malé, the island capital of the Maldives, which, contrary to the global warming hype, is not in danger of inunda-tion; cover design by Alan Yue.

Philip Ulanowsky

Dr.RobertMoonteacheselectrodynamicsatasummercampnearLeesburg.Seep.2.

2 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

EDITORIALEDITORIAL STAFFEditor-in-Chief

LaurenceHecht

Managing Editor

MarjorieMazelHecht

Associate Editors

ElijahC.Boyd

DavidCherry

ChristineCraig

MarshaFreeman

ColinM.Lowry

GregoryB.Murphy

RichardSanders

CharlesB.Stevens

BooksDavidCherry

Art Director

AlanYue

Advertising Manager

MarshaFreeman

SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY BOARD

FrancescoCelani,Ph.D.

HughW.Ellsaesser,Ph.D.

LyndonH.LaRouche,Jr.

WolfgangLillge,M.D.

RamtanuMaitra

ThomasE.Phipps,Jr.,Ph.D.

B.A.Soldano,Ph.D.

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www.21stcenturysciencetech.com

ThereismuchtocelebrateaboutthelifeofDr.RobertJ.Moon(1911-1989),whowouldhavebeen100yearsoldonFeb.14,2011.Manyofourreadersarefamiliar with Moon and the extraordi-naryimpacttheworkofthiscreativesci-entisthad in theManhattanProject, inphysics,inbiology,andintheeducationofyoungscientistsandothers,includingthe editors of 21st Century. A just re-leased 45-minute video with OyangTengandLaurenceHecht(larouchepac.com/node/17501) presents some high-lightsofMoon’simpact,andaFall2004specialissueof21st Centurycoveredindepthhislifeandwork.*

Intoday’slargelyanti-scienceandma-terialistworld,where thequalities thatMoonexemplifiedareinshortsupply,itisimportantthatMoonandwhatherep-resentsbeavailableasamodelforfuturegenerations,andfuturescientistsinpar-ticular.

Moonneversoughtfameorfortuneasa scientist; he passionately sought thecausesofphenomenaandhowtousehisknowledgeandinsights to improvetheconditionsoflifeinthepresent,andforthefuture.Hegrewupata timewhenelectricity and automobiles were com-ingintowidespreaduse,andasachildheexploredhowbothofthemworked,becomingaskilledelectrician,autome-chanic,andexperimentalistatanearlyage. He continued his experiments inphysicsandchemistry,graduating fromSouthwest Missouri State College in1930.

Thekey toscience,Moonsaid, is todefineaproblemandthendevelopthetoolsneededtotackleit,ashehad.Hisadvicetocollegestudentswasnottoget

dependentoncomputerstosolveprob-lems,buttodohands-onexperimenta-tioninalaboratory.“Thefreedomtoex-perimentinalaboratoryisanessentialpartofayoungscientistseducation,”hesaid.“Youcan’tlearntobeascientistbypassively taking in what someone elseaccomplished.”

When he came to the University ofChicagoin1930,atage19,Moonwant-ed toworkonanew idea—controllednuclearfusion.ThisputhimintheDe-partmentofPhysicalChemistry,workingwith Prof. William Draper Harkins(1873-1951), who had proposed theideaof fusionandwhoseworkon theneutronMoonhadstudied.HarkinswashappytohaveMoon,whobeganwork-ingonthenecessaryequipmentforfu-sionexperiments(hestartedwithbuild-ingtheUniversity’sfirstGeigercounter),andatthesametimestudyinganddis-cussing the new ideas coming out onparticles and waves, and the connec-tionsoffrequencywithenergy.

Science and OptimismScience in this period was exciting,

full of new discoveries, and optimismabout the future. Scientists were notafraidtoquestionthecommonlyaccept-edlawsofphysicsandrewritethemasneeded. During this time, Moon de-signedandbuilta50-inchcyclotron,toacceleratechargedparticles.Itweighedabout50tons,andwassuperiortothefirst cyclotron, built by ErnestO. Law-renceattheUniversityofCalifornia.Healsowrotehisdoctoralthesisondiffrac-tionpatternscreatedbyelectronsinthesurfaceofoleicacid,bywhichhewasabletoseethestructureofliquidsurfac-es,andfindthestructureofmolecules.Moonoftenreturnedinhisthoughtstothisearlywork,whichappliedideasfirstproposedbyLouisdeBroglie,andwouldofteninsistthateveryelectroncommu-

EDITORIAL

SCIENCEANDMORALITY

Celebrating Robert J. Moon at 100

* Several articles from that issue are available at www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/moonsubpg.html. The entire issue can be purchased for $5 ($8 foreign).

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 3

nicatedwitheveryother.When the Manhattan Project began

duringWorldWar II, Moon’s cyclotronwasessentialasasourceofneutronsfortransmutingandtestingmaterials,inpar-ticular testing the ability of graphite toslow down (moderate) the neutronswhich would be used to bombard andsplit uranium, releasing energy in theprocess. It was Moon who figured outhow to get the necessary purity in thegraphiteblockssothattheycouldmod-eratetheneutronspeed,andtherebyac-celeratetheuraniumfissionintoachainreaction.

ForMoon,theManhattanProjectdayswerecharacterizedby the frequentdis-cussionsthatwenton,probingideaswithscientistsfromdifferentdisciplines,hav-ingdeepconversationsaboutthemoralimplicationsof thenuclearenergy theywereproducing.Moonpursuedthiskindoftheoreticalandexperimentalprobingthroughout his life. He loved teaching,especially teachingothershowto thinkdeeplyaboutanidea,simplybytalkingwiththem.Andhavingthemdothebasicexperiments, for example in electrody-namics,thathadlaidthebasisforhisun-derstandingofhow thingswork. Itwashisconstantprobingofnewideas,com-binedwithhiswideknowledgeofclassi-calphysicalandchemicalexperimenta-tion, that gave him the ability to viewspace and time with increasing insightandprecision.

Moonwasdirectlyinvolvedinbring-ingHarryTruman thepetitionof scien-tistsurgingthenewPresidentnottodropthebomb(whichtheirManhattanProjecthaddeveloped)oncivilians,buttodem-onstrate itsdestructivenessona remoteisland.Andafterthebombwasdropped,Moonmadethedecisiontoleavenucle-arphysicsandwork inotherareas.Hebecameaprofessorat theUniversityofChicago’s InstituteofRadiobiologyandBiophysics,fromwhereherapidlydevel-opedseveralnewinventions.Thefirst,in1949, was a radioactive measuring de-vice,smallenoughtobeinsertedinahu-man heart to detect abnormalities inheartfunction.

Then, Moon designed and built thefirst scanning X-ray device, which pro-duced superior images to standard X-rays,at1/2,000ofthethenstandarddose.Subsequently,hedevelopedthisintoanelectrongunapparatus,thatprojecteda

sharpimageofdifficult-to-reachinternalorgans,likethestomachorlowerintes-tines,ontoascreenformedicaldiagno-sis.(ThiswasaprecursortotheCTscan.)Thedevicewasalsoused fordetectingflaws inmetals, forexample innuclearreactors.

Moonalsocreatedwhatwascalledaneutron thermometer, which was de-signedtotransformtheheatofanuclearreactorintoelectricity.

Work with the LaRouche MovementIntheearly1970s,Moonbegantocol-

laborate in Chicago with the politicalmovementofLyndonLaRouche.HeranforthepostofaldermaninChicago,par-ticipatedinnationalconferences,taughtclasses, and, in 1974 was a foundingmemberoftheFusionEnergyFoundationinNewYorkCity.Healsoservedasanadvisory editor to the Foundation’sFusion magazine, the predecessor of21st Century,andbecametheeditor-in-chief of the Foundation’s theoreticaljournal,The International Journal of Fu-sion Energy.

If I were to summarize Moon’s workfrom the early1970suntil his death in1989,Iwouldsaythatmostofthetimehewasjusthavingfun,thinkingandhy-pothesizing about the quantization ofspaceandtime,andteachingsciencetopeopleofallages.YoucangetasenseofthisinhisownwordsinatranscriptofaclasshegaveinSeptember1987,inLees-

burg,Virginia,whichispublishedintheFall2004issueof21st Century,wherehediscusses the evolution of his thinkingaboutspaceandtime,andhowitledtohis ordering of the Platonic solids intowhatwenowcalltheMoonModel.

When the Fusion Energy Foundation(alongwithtwootherLaRouchepublish-ing entities) was put into forced bank-ruptcyinApril1987,byafactionofthegovernmentoutto“getLaRouche,”ithitMoonveryhard.Withoutanywarning,theFoundationoffice,includingMoon’sdeskandfiles,waslockedup,alongwithallourbooks,papers,andfilecabinets.

Atthetime,Moonwasworkingonaproposaltosetupanewscienceuniver-sity,basedontheprinciplesofteachingsciencethathehadelaboratedovertheyears.

Wesoonestablished21st Century Sci-ence & TechnologyasasuccessortoFu-sion magazine, and Moon persevered,beginningnewworkonbiophysicsandtheprocessofaging,developinghisideasontheatomicnucleus,teaching,andad-vising.MoondiedinOctober1989,justaftertheforcedbankruptcywasreversedbyaFederalbankruptcyjudge.

I cannot help but think of Dr. MoonnowasbeinginGod’stime,Kairos,andperhapsstillcontemplatingthenatureofspace,ashedidwhenhelivedinChro-nos,man’stime.

—Marjorie Mazel Hecht

EDITORIAL

Philip Ulanowsky/EIRNS

Dr.MoonteachingyouthinasummercampnearLeesburg.

4 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology NEWSBRIEFS

NASA BUDGET PROPOSALS: THE RACE TO THE BOTTOMVyingtooutdoeachotherintheirracetodestroythespaceprogram,the

FY12proposaloutdoNASA’sbudgetfromtheObamaAdministrationandtheRepublicanscallforseverecuts,thatwouldcontinuetomakeitimpossibleforAmericanstoevergetoutofEarthorbit.

TheAdministration FY12 budget proposal freezes NASA’s spending at the2010levelof$18.7billion.Thisis$300millionlessthantheFY11Administra-tionbudgetproposedlastyear,whichwasneverpassed.NASA,liketherestoftheFederalgovernment,iscurrentlyoperatingatitsFY10levelthroughaCon-tinuingResolution.TheCongressdidpassanFY11AuthorizationActinOctober,whichdirectedNASAtocarryoutanumberofexplorationprograms,butthatmoneywasneverappropriated.

Themoneythatwillbe“saved”thisyear,whentheSpaceShuttleisretired,isallocatedbytheWhiteHousetoincreasecommercialcrewfundingto$850million,whichisalevelthattheCongresswillnotaccept.Therestisfora$1billion“technology”developmentprogram,whichCongresswillalsonotgo

alongwith,becausethereisnoseriousmissioninsightwhichwouldusenewtech-nology.FortheMoon/Marsfuture,NASAhasalreadytoldCongressthatthereisnotenoughmoneyinthebudgetforanewheavy-liftlaunchvehiclefortripsbeyondEarthorbit,whichCongresshasmandatedtoflyby2016.

TheRepublicanbudgetproposaloutdoestheWhiteHouse,proposingwhatwouldbea$578millioncut,forFY11.Thisiscontainedintheirbilltofundtherestofthisyear,aftertheContinuingResolutionexpiresinMarch.Inaddition,thebillprohibitsanyfundsfrombeingused,inanyway,tocooperatewiththecountrywiththeworld’sfastest-growingspaceprogram—China.

BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA TO BUILD NUCLEAR PLANTS TOGETHERBrazilandArgentinasignedanagreementinlateJanuarytocooperateinbuildingtwo

multi-purposeresearchreactors—oneforeachcountry.Thiscooperationis“annon-renounceablecommonpatrimonyoftheBrazilian-Argentinestrategicassociation,”Ar-gentinePresidentCristinaFernándezdeKirchnerandBrazilianPresidentDilmaRous-seffstated,explainingthattheexpertisethateachnationhasdevelopedovertheyearswillbebroughttobearinthisproject,workingthroughtheBilateralNuclearEnergyCom-mission(COBEN).Argentina’sAtomicEnergyCommissionandBrazil’sNationalNucle-arEnergyCommissionwillworktogethercloselyinproducingtheresearchreactors.

Theagreementemphasizesthatcooperationinthisfieldwillhave“agreatimpactonthedevelopmentoftheirrespectivenuclearsectors.”COBENwillalsobeinstructedtocontinueadvancingeducationandtrainingofhumanresources,whilethePermanentArgentine-BrazilianCommitteeonNuclearPolicyisinstructedtodeepenthedialogue,withbilateralandpoliticalcooperationinthoseareasencompassedbythebilateralnuclearagenda.ArgentinaandBrazileachhastwonuclearreactorsandoneunderconstruction;

VERNADSKY INSTITUTE HELPS PREPARE UNMANNED MISSION TO PHOBOSAmongthephotostakenbytheEuropeanSpaceAgency’sMarsExpressspacecraft

initsfly-byoftheMarsmoonPhobosonJan.9,thereareseveralthatfeatureproposedlandingsitesforRussia’sPhobos-Gruntmission,scheduledforlaunchlaterin2011.

Thephotos,takenatadistanceof100kilometers,showinnewdetailthepre-viousandcurrentlyplannedlandingsitesforPhobos-Grunt,whichwouldbethefirstspacecrafttolandonPhobos,reportedAlexanderBasilevsky,amemberofthePhobos-GruntteambasedattheVernadskyInstituteinMoscow.Usingthenewimages,scientistscanconstructahigh-resolutiontopographicmapofthelandingsites,whichshouldhelpdeterminewherePhobos-Gruntwillulti-matelytouchdown.Thatdecisionwilltakeplacelaterthisyear,mostlikelyafterthecrafthasbeenlaunched,butthenewimagesindicatethattheoldlandingsitemaybeashospitableasthenewone,saysBasilevsky.

TheteamalsohasselectedpotentiallandingsitesontheMoon,forfutureRussianspacemissionsthere.

NEWS BRIEFS

ImageofPhobos(above)byMarsExpress(shownhereinartist’sconcept),takenJan.9,2011,atadistanceof100km.Theellipsesmarkthepreviouslyplanned(red)andcurrentlyconsidered(blue)landingsitesfortheRussianPhobos-Gruntmission.

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 5NEWSBRIEFS

NUCLEAR-POWERED MARS HOPPER DESIGNED BY INL TEAMAteamattheIdahoNationalLaboratoryhasdesigneda

nuclear-poweredhopperthatcanexamineoneMartiansite,jumptoanother,andrepeat,hundredsoftimes.“We’vegotalittleguythatwethinkcanhopabout15kilometers[morethan9miles]everyfivetosevendays,”saysStevenHowe,directorofthelab’sCenterforSpaceNuclearResearch.Thehopperdesignisaboutasbigandheavyasanadultemperorpenguinandcapableoftravellingalmost200timesasfarasthesolar-poweredroversSpiritandOpportunitydidintheirfirstfiveyearsonMars.

A single rocket launch fromEarth coulddeploy severalhoppersatonce,andafewdozenhopperscouldmaptheentireMartiansurfaceinafewyears,Howesays.HopperscouldalsoserveasanetworkofweatherstationsmonitoringtheMartianclimateandcouldcollectair,rock,andsoilsamplestosendbacktoEarth.

Thelong-livedhoppersdon’thavetocarryfuelwiththem,andtheycansuckupthecarbon-dioxide-richMartianatmosphereanduseitasapropellant.Oncue,storedheatfromaradioisotopepowersourcehitsthepropellantandrocketsthehopperinanarctowarditsnextlandingsite.Smallerthrustsorientthehopperandsoftenitslanding.

AFTER STAY IN SPACE STATION, CHERRY TREE SEEDS BLOOM AND GROWTinyseedsfromtheprizedChujohimeSeigan-zakuramountaincherryinJapan

weresenttoouterspaceinNovember2008,toseewhetheritwouldhelpthemtogerminate,andtheexperimentwasasuccess.Preservationistshadbeenunabletocultivatemoreofthevarietywithoutgrafting,becauseitsseedsdidnotgerminate.InacollaborativeeffortbetweenpreservationistsandtheJapanAerospaceExplo-rationAgency,about265ChujohimeSeigan-zakuraseedswerestoredintheIn-ternationalSpacestationfor81/2months,alongwithseedsfromothercherryvari-eties.

Upontheirreturn,someofthemountaincherryseedsproducedbuds,andothershaveshownextraordinarygrowth,reportedYomiuri ShimbunonWashington’sBirth-day,Feb.22.Thisraisestheimportantquestionoftheeffectofzerogravityandthecosmicradiationenvironmentonlife.Traditionallyithasbeenthoughtthatcosmicradiationisdamagingtolife,butthisisanexampleoftheopposite.

FULL SUN NOW VISIBLE IN 3-D STEREONASA’s twin STEREO probes moved into position on opposite

sidesoftheSunonFeb.6,andarenowbeamingbackuninterruptedimagesoftheentireSun,frontandback.“Forthefirsttimeever,wecanwatchsolaractivityinitsfull3-dimensionalglory,”saysAngelosVourlidas,amemberoftheSTEREOscienceteamattheNavalRe-searchLaboratoryinWashington,D.C.“STEREOhasrevealedtheSunas it really is—asphereofhotplasmaand intricatelywovenmagneticfields.”

EachSTEREOprobephotographshalfoftheSunandbeamstheimagestoEarth,whereresearcherscombinethetwoviewstocreateasphere.STEREO’stelescopesaretunedtofourwavelengthsofex-tremeultravioletradiation,designedtotracekeyaspectsofsolarac-tivitysuchasflares,tsunamis,andmagneticfilaments.Now,activesunspotsonthefarsideoftheSun,whichcanleadtocoronalmassejectionsthatdisrupttheEarth’spowergrid,willnothitasasurprise.Scientistswillbeabletoimprovespaceweatherforecastsforairlines,powercompanies,satelliteop-erators,andothers.

For more information and graphics, see http://science.nasa.gov/ science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/06feb_fullsun/

Idaho National Laboratory

TheMarshopper(above)woulduseheatfromtheradioisotopewithaStirlingen-ginetogenerateelectricitytopoweron-boardscientificinstrumentsandthepro-pellant capture system.After collectingMartian rock and dust samples at thesource, thehopperscoulddeliver themtoanEarthboundrocket(top).

Jay Friedlander/stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov

Anartist’sillustrationofthetwoSTEREO(SolarTerrestrial Relations Observatory)satellites,whichwerelaunchedin2006.PriortoSTEREO,astronomerscouldseeonlythesideoftheSunfacingEarth.

Idaho National Laboratory

6 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

Jan.21,2011

France’sleadingvirologist,LucMontagnier,hasbroughtforthremarkablenewevidenceforanon-particleviewoflife.Theemissionoflow-frequen-cyelectromagneticwavesfrombacterialDNAsequences,andtheappar-

entabilityofthesewavestoorganizenucleotides(therawmaterialofDNA)intonewbacterialDNA,bymediationofstructureswithinwater,areamongtheimportantresultsreportedtodate.1

Bydemonstratingtheinteractionoflivingorganismswithelectromagneticwaves,perhapsincludingthelow-frequencySchumannresonancewavesintheEarth’satmosphere,2theworkhasrevolutionaryimplicationsforbiologyandourwholeunderstandingof theuniverse, extending theworkbegun in the

1920sbysuchfiguresasAlexanderGurwitsch,whodetectedultravioletradiationsfromgrowingplantcells.

ThesignalsdetectedbyMontagnierappeartobeapropertyofmostbacteriainfectinghumans,aswellasmanyviruses,includ-ingHIV,influenzaA,andhepatitisC.Further,itappearsfromtheresearch, that somecommondiseasesnotpreviouslyconsid-eredtobeofbacterialorigin,mayindeedbeso.Inevidenceofthat,signalsidenticaltothosedetectedintesttubescontaininglivebacteria,havebeenfoundinthebloodplasma,andintheDNAextractedfromtheplasma,inpatientssufferingfromAl-zheimer’s,Parkinson’sdisease,multiplesclerosis,chronicLymesyndrome,rheumatoidarthritis,andvariousneuropathies.

Dr.Montagnier,whowontheNobelprize in2008 forhis1983discoveryoftheHIVvirus,hasproposedtoemploytheseradiofrequencytechniquesfordetectionofchronicbacterialandviralinfections,andtoexploremeanstousethemintreat-mentofdiseasesincludingAIDSandautism.Montagnieralso

notesthatsuchtechniquesmightsomedayprovideasolutiontothegrowingproblemofevolutionofantibiotic-resistantorganisms.

UnderattackfromthescienceestablishmentinEuropeandelsewhereintheWest,Montagnier,age78,hasnowmadethedecisiontopursuefurtherre-

1. L. Montagnier, J. Aissa, E. Del Giudice, C. Lavalee, A. Tedeschi, and G. Vitiello, “DNA Waves and Water,” (2010) http://arxiv.org/pdf/1012.5166

2. The Schumann resonance refers to the waves of base frequency 7.83 Hz and its higher harmon-ics which propagate in the waveguide formed between the surface of the Earth and the ionosphere. In 1952, German atmospheric physicist Winfried Schumann hypothesized that lightning activity would produce such low-frequency waves, and by dividing the circumference of the Earth by the velocity of light, he predicted the approximate frequency later detected.

New Evidence for A Non-Particle View of Lifeby Laurence Hecht

Jiaotang University

Prof.MontagnieratJiaotangUniversityinShang-hai,receivinghisappointmentinNovember2010toauniversitychair.Montagnier,underattackintheWest,willcontinuehisresearchatJiaotang.

University of Calgary, Faculty of Medicine

Nobel Prize laureate Luc Montagnier: Hisgroundbreaking new work looks at the inter-playofradiationwithlife.

Luc Montagnier’s Revolution in Biology

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 7

searchinChina,atanewresearchinstitutewhichwillbearhisnameatShanghai’sJiaotangUniversity.

The Non-Particle ViewMontagnier’sexperimentsbearuponcertaincrucialquestions

of scientific method which could not be properly addressedwithintheusuallyposedparadoxesof20thCenturyphysics,butwhichbegintofindaclearerresolutionwhenthesubjectmatterbecomestherelationshipamongthenon-living,living,andalsocognitivedomains.Forexample,weknewalreadyfromtheworkofdeBroglieandSchrödingerinthe1920s,thattheparadoxesarisingfromtheattempttoreduceexperiencewithinthenon-livingdomaintoaparticle-basedconceptionofsubstance,couldbeovercomebyawaveconceptionwhichsubsumedthephe-nomenaofelectromagneticradiationandtheold“mechanics”withinaunifiedconceptionofmicrocosmandmacrocosm.

However,Schrödingerwasunabletocarryoversuchinsightsintothedomainoflife,insteadproposingadisappointingno-tionoflocalnegationofentropytoexplaintheobviousupwardorganizingprinciplecharacterizingbothevolutionaryprogressand cognitive human advance. That difficulty was resolvedmidwaythroughthe20thCenturybyLyndonLaRouche’srec-ognition that human creativity, which he recognized as thedriving forceofhumanphysicaleconomicadvance,and theactualsourceofwealthorvalue,asopposedtoallprevailingtheories of labor content or market valuation, was also theknowableprincipleofuniversalprogress,orcognatewith it.Therefore, the characteristics of that universally propagatedcreativeprinciplemustbeadduciblefromproperlyconstructedinvestigationsintotherelationshipofcosmicradiationstolifeonEarth—providedthattheusualflawedassumptionaboutthecompletenessandefficacyof thehumansensorium, thefivesenses,iscastaside,asLaRouchehasrecentlyemphasized.3

Byrevisitingthequestionoftheinterplayofradiation,includ-ingatmosphericand,implicitly,cosmicradiation,withlife,theMontagnierexperimentshavebroughttobearsomefreshnewevidenceintothisareaofinquirywhichhadbeendeclaredal-mostverbotenbythescienceestablishmentformostofthelastcentury.

The Experimental EvidenceTomakethesemattersmoretransparent,letusnowreviewin

greaterdetail theextraordinaryexperimental results reportedbyMontagnierandhiscolleagues.

1. Regeneration from filtrates.Inapaperpublishedin2009,4Montagnieretal.reportedevidenceofbacteriaandvirusesre-generating themselves from apparently sterile solutions.Afterpassagethroughfiltersofporesizesfarsmallerthanthebacteri-umorvirus,solutionswhichhadcontainedinfectedcultures,buttestedassterileafterfiltration,wereabletoregeneratethe

3. For example, Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr., “A Wedding Anniversary: The Sixth Sense,” EIR, Jan. 14, 2011, pp. 4-22. http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/2011/3802sixth_sense.htmlSee also, the report “The Extended Sensorium” by the LaRouche “Basement” Project, EIR, Feb. 4, 2011 and http://www.larouchepac.com/node/17172

4. L. Montagnier, J. Aissa, S. Ferris, J-L. Montagnier, C. Lavalee, “Electromag-netic Signals Are Produced by Aqueous Nanostructures Derived from Bacterial DNA Sequences,” Interdisciplinary Sciences: Computational Life Sciences (2009) Vol. 1, pp. 81-90.

bacteriaandvirusesthathadinfectedthem.ThefirstexperimentsusedMycoplasma pirum,aspeciesofsmall,cellwall-deficientbacteria,about300nMinsize.Themycoplasmaconstituteage-nusofverysmallbacteria,whichareimplicatedinanumberofhumandiseasesandareresistanttomanytypesofantibiotics.

AfterfiltrationofacultureofhumanlymphocytesinfectedwithMycoplasma pirumthroughfiltersof100nMor20nMpo-rosities,incubationonasterilecultureofhumanlymphocytesshowedregenerationoftheoriginalmycoplasma.ThesterilityoftheculturesonwhichthemycoplasmawasregeneratedhadbeenrigorouslytestedfortracesofbacterialDNA,andshowednegative.“RepeatedsearchfortracesofmycoplasmaDNAbyPCR[polymerasechainreaction]andnestedPCRusingspecificprimersfortheadhesingeneorforthe16Sribosomalgenewasconsistentlynegative,”Montagnierreports.

Theseweretheresults,firstobserved10yearsago,whichsetMontagnieronthisexperimentalpath.

2. Emission of low-frequency waves from the filtrates.Inthecourseofinvestigatingthisanomalousphenomenon,Montag-nierandcolleaguesfoundaremarkablenewpropertyofthesefiltrates.After dilutions with water, the apparently sterile fil-trateswereshowntoproducelow-frequencyelectromagnetic

International Organization for Mycoplasmology

Mycoplasmahyopneumoniae attached to swine cilia. The my-coplasma are very small bacteria, without a cell wall, which are implicated in several human diseases.

CDC

The more classical Escherichia coli, here shown magnified 1,250X in a fluorescent antibody stained photomicrograph.

8 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

waves inamanner thatwas reproducible.Similaremissionswerealsofoundinapparentlysterilefiltratesofsolutionsthathadbeeninfectedwithalarger,moreclassicalbacterium,E. coli,andwithothermicroorganisms.Butnosignalwasfoundinunfilteredsolutions(Figure1).

Thewavesweredetectedbyanapparatusthathadbeende-signedbyimmunologistJacquesBenveniste.5Beforebeingtest-

5. Jacques Benveniste (1935-2004) had been the director of the immunology lab of France’s National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM). His re-search in the 1980s showed that water, which had once contained an antibody, but had been diluted to such a degree that no molecule of the antibody could remain, was still capable of acting upon a type of white blood cell known as a basophil. Benveniste concluded that the configuration of water molecules had become biologically active, despite the absence of the antibody. Benveniste’s results were replicated by independent laboratories in Canada, Italy, and Israel, before their June 1988 publication in Nature. But in a follow-up visit to Benveniste’s laboratory by a team including Nature editor John Maddox and magician James Randi, the results could be reproduced in many, but not all trials. Benveniste called the visit a mockery, and denounced McCarthy-like methods. But the high-profile defamation campaign by Nature caused him public discreditation.

ed,thesamplesareseriallydiluted,1partin10,insmall(1.5milliliter)plastic tubes,whichare then tightlystopperedandstronglyagitatedfor15seconds,acriticalstep.Thesampleisplaced insideacoilofcopperwireof300-ohm impedance,whichactsasadetectoroflow-frequencyelectromagneticsig-

Figure 2Fourier-analyzedsignalfromaqueousdilutionsofMycoplasmapirum.Thespikesattheleftarethe50Hzsignalfromelectriccircuit.Thespikesattheright(prom-inentinD-9toD-12)areinterpretedasthepositivesignalofabout1,000Hzfromthebacteria.Source: “DNA Waves and Water”

Jacques Benveniste, whose 1980s research found that an antibody remained in very diluted water—and who was then subjected to ridicule by the science mafia.

Figure 1Devicefor thecaptureandanalysisofelectromagneticsignals:(1)acoilofcopperwire,impedance300Ohms;(2)plasticstopperedtubecontaining1mLofthesolutionto be analyzed; (3) amplifier; (4) computer with soft-ware.Source: “DNA Waves and Water”

nals,attachedtoanamplifier.Comput-er software is used to separate back-ground noise, and the signal isFourier-analyzed. The first low dilu-tionswereusuallynegativeforasignal.Positivesignalswereusuallyobtainedatdilutionsrangingfrom10-5to10-8,or10-12(5to8,or12successivedilutions).Higherdilutionswereagainnegative.Theoriginalunfilteredsuspensionwasnegativeatalldilutionsforallmicroor-ganismsstudied(Figure2).

When the signal appears, an in-crease inamplitudeand in frequencyover thebackground isdetected.Fre-quencies close to 1,000 Hz and itsmultipleswerefound.Therangeofthedetected frequencies falls in what issometimes called the extremely lowfrequency (ELF) band of electromag-neticradiation(about3to3,000Hz).The bacteria are emitting frequencieswhich would be audible were theysound waves, but as electromagneticsignals are traditionally thought of aslyingattheverylowendoftheradiofrequencyspectrum.

A remarkable featureof the resultswithbacteriaandvirusesisthatmanyoftheemittingfiltratesaresohighlydi-

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 9

lutedastohavealmostnolikelihoodofcontainingtheoriginalinfectiousagentoritscompleteDNA.Inordertoaccountforthis, as well as the appearance of signals from pure water,Montagnieradoptedanhypothesisdevelopedbyresearchersintotheanomalouspropertiesofwater,namely,thatcoherent,polymericnanostructuresareformedinthewater.Anumberofphysicalstudieshavereportedtheformationoflongpolymersofhydrogen-bondeddipolesinwater.However,thesetendedtobeshortlived.InMontagnier’sview,theemittedsignalsmaybearesonancephenomenon,perhapsdependinguponexci-tationbytheambientelectromagneticnoise.Theirpersistenceaftertheremovaloftheagentwhichformsthemmightbeduetoacoherenceeffectproducedbytheradiationsthemselves,aspostulatedbyItalianphysicistsEmilioDelGiudiceandGiu-lianoPreparata.6

(Resultsdatingbacktothe1920shadshowntheexistenceofemissionsfromlivingsubstancesatthemuchhigherfrequencyrangeofultravioletlight.7SuchemissionwaslaterconfirmedbyFritz-AlbertPopp,whonamed thephenomenonbiophotons.

Poppandcolleaguesdemonstratedthatthelightwascoherent,somewhatlikealaser;thattheemittingmoleculesarecoupledbyacoherentradiationfield;andthatthesourceistheDNAinthecellnucleus.WholebodybiophotondetectioninPopp’slabshowedacorrelationwithknownbiologicalrhythmsofdiur-nal,lunar,andotherperiodicity,andsuggestedtheexistenceofagloballyorganizedbiophotonfieldfortheorganism.8)

3.“Cross talk” between the test tubes.Incontinuedexperi-mentationbyMontagnier,itprovedpossiblebothtoeliminatethesignal fromcertaindilutions,and tocauseothers,whichhadnotemitted,tobeginemittingsignals.Thisisthephenom-enonMontagnierreferstoas“crosstalk.”

Inone seriesof experiments,negative (non-emitting)dilu-tionswerecombinedwithpositive (emitting)dilutions.Thus,when0.1mLofanegativelowdilution(perhaps10-3)wasadd-edto0.4or0.9mLofapositivedilution(10-8),thelatterbe-camenegative.“This indicates,”writesMontagnier,“that the‘silent’ lowdilutionsare self-inhibitory,probablyby interfer-enceof themultiple sourcesemitting in thesame length,or

6. E. Del Giudice, G. Preparata, G. Vitielo, “Water as a free electric dipole la-ser,” Physical Review Letters, Vol. 61, pp. 1085-1088 (1988).

7. See, for example, Gurwitsch & Gurwitsch, “Twenty Years of Mitogenetic Ra-diation: Emergence, Development and Perspectives,” 21st Century Science & Technology, Fall 1999, pp. 41-53.

8. cf. Recent Advances in Biophoton Research and its Radiations, edited by F.A. Popp (World Scientific, 1992).

slightlyoutofphase, likearadio jamming.Alternatively, theabundanceofnanostructurescanformagelinwaterandthere-forearepreventedtovibrate.”

Ifthisistrulyawaveeffect,itshouldbepossibletodemon-stratethat thepropertiesof thedilutionscouldbecommuni-cated,notbyphysicallycombiningthem,butbyplacingtheplastic tubes containing them next to one another.This wasdemonstratedbyplacingadonortubeofalow“silent”dilution(10-3)ofE. Colinexttoareceivertubeofapositive“loud”dilu-tion(10-9)ofthesamesubstance.

Thetubeswereplacedfor24hoursinsideaboxsurroundedbyanickel-ironalloyknownasmu-metal,whichhastheprop-ertyofsuppressinglow-frequencymagneticfields.Thehypoth-esiswas that themu-metalwouldshield them fromexternal

German researcher Fritz-Albert Popp continued the 1920s work of Alexander Gurwitsch, investigating emissions from living plants of high frequency untraviolet light, which he named biophotons.

CDC

Scanning electron micrograph of Salmonella typhimurium bacteria magnified 15,000X. Montagnier observed electro-magnetic signals in dilutions of Salmonella, and other bacterial species.

CDC

Scanning electron micrograph of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1), which is spherical in appearance. Montagnier ob-served electromagnetic signals from a portion of the virus DNA.

10 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

electromagnetic noise, permitting the active electromagneticemissionsfromthebacteriatoactontheirown.After24hoursintheshieldedbox,thedonortubewasstillsilent,butthere-ceivertubehadalsobecomesilent.Butwhenthereceivertubewasfurtherdiluted,asignalappearedagain.

“Theseresultssuggest,”writesMontagnier,“thatthereceivertube was made silent by the formation of an excess of newnanostructures, which could emit signals upon further dilu-tion.”Byinterposingasheetofmu-metalbetweenthetubes,itwaspossibletosuppresstheeffect.

Thecrosstalkalsoprovedtobespeciesspecific.Electromag-neticsignalswereobservedindilutionsofotherbacterialspe-cies,includingStreptococcus B, Staphylococcus aureas, Pseu-domonas aeroginosa, Proteus mirabilis, Bacillus subtilis, Salmonella,andClostridium perfringens.Thesignalswerede-tectedinthesamerangeofdilutionsobservedforE. coli,andthe transfereffectwasnotedupon immersion inamu-metalshieldedbox.Butaspeciescouldonly“talk”withamemberofthesamespecies.

4. Wave transmission of DNA genetic information to water.Thenextphaseoftheexperimentationprovedtrulyremarkable,for itcomesclose tochallenging the tenetofbiology,some-timesknownasRedi’sprinciple,andalsostronglydefendedbyPasteur,thatalllifecomesfromlife(omne vivum ex vivo).Yet,acloseranalysiswilldemonstrate that it isnot thetruthof theprinciple,butwhatwemeanby“life”whichisactuallychal-lengedbytheresults.

InexperimentsreportedbyMontagnierata2010conferenceinLindau,9atubeofpurewater,whenex-posedtoasecondtubeemittingsignals,wasmadetoemit signals, and then to cause DNA sequencesplacedintothepurewatertoassembleintosequenc-essimilartothoseoftheoriginalemittingorganism.Becauseofitsimportancewewillsummarizetheex-perimentinasmuchdetailasisavailable.

Asreportedina2010paperontheexperiment,10afragmentofDNAtakenfromthelongterminalre-peatoftheAIDSvirus(HIV)wasusedasthesource.(The long terminal repeat is aportionof theDNAfound in retroviruses that repeats itselfmany timesover.)ThefragmentwasthenamplifiedbythePCRtechnique, in which a naturally derived enzyme,knownaspolymerase,artificiallystimulatestheDNAtoreproducemanycopiesofitselfwhenthenucleo-tidesandotherrawmaterialsaresupplied.DilutionsofthePCR-amplifiedDNAsolutionwerethenmade,as in earlier experiments, until an electromagneticsignalwasdetected.

Thecontentsofthetubewerethenfilteredthrough450-nmand20-nmporosityfilters,anddilutedfrom10-2to10-15.Asecondtubecontainingpurewaterwassubjected to the same filtration and dilutions. Thetubeswerethenplacedneartooneanotherinsideahorizontallyorientedcoppercoilorsolenoid(Figure3).Thesolenoidandtubesareplacedinsideacon-tainershieldedbya1-mm-thicklayerofmu-metal.Alow-intensityelectriccurrentoscillatingat7Hzwasthenfedtothesolenoidfromanexternalgeneratorfor

18hoursatroomtemperature.Whenthetubecontainingpurewaterwasremovedafter18

hours,itwasfoundtoemitsignals,asdidthetubecontainingthedilutedfiltrateofviralDNA.Noemissionoccurredunderthefollowingconditions:

• Timeofexposurelessthan16-18hours• Nocoil• Generatorturnedoff• Frequencyofexcitationlessthan7Hz11

• AbsenceofDNAinthefirsttube.Nowcomesthemostremarkablestep.Theingredientsfor

synthesizingDNAbythepolymerasechainreaction(nucleo-tides,primers,polymerase)wereaddedtothetubecontainingthepurewater.ItisexpectedthatthePCRreactionshouldre-

9. “DNA between Physics and Biology: DNA Waves and Water” from the pre-sentation of Dr. Luc Montagnier, Lindau, 28 June 2010 http://montagnier.net/montagnier/index.php/publications/

10. L. Montagnier, J. Aissa, E. Del Giudice, C. Lavalee, A. Tedeschi, and G. Vi-tiello, “DNA waves and water.”

11. Compare the experiments of Italian biophysicist Bruno Brandimarte in ap-plying low-frequency magnetic oscillations, both in vitro, and to the healing of wounds and other pathologies. Brandimarte proposes that magnetic oscilla-tions below 10 kHz are non-Maxwellian waves, which should be called mag-neto-electric, not electromagnetic. See, Bruno Brandimarte, “Whole-Body Magneto-Therapy Speeds Wound and Disease Healing,” 21st Century Science & Technology, Summer 2010, pp. 21-30. www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Ar-ticles_2010/ Summer_2010/Magneto-Therapy.pdf

Figure 3Smalltesttubescontainingdilutedbacterialculture,orpurewater,wereplacedinsideasolenoidofcopperwirewhichwasshieldedbymu-metaltopreventextraneousmagneticinfluence.Agenera-torsentanelectricalsignaltothesolenoid,creatingalow-frequen-cymagneticfieldof7Hz.Thedevicecouldcause“crosstalk”betweenthetubes.Source: “DNA Waves and Water”

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 11

quire the presence of at least onecopyoftheDNAsegmentwhichistobereproduced,toserveasanini-tialtemplateforDNAamplification.Thiswasnotadded.ThePCRreac-tionwasthenperformedintheusu-alwaybycycledexposuretoheat.The result was that the DNA pro-duced from the tube initially con-taining pure water was of the ex-pectedsizeand98percentidenticalinsequencetotheoriginalDNAse-quence from the long terminal re-peatoftheHIV.Outof104nucleo-tides (the molecules which jointogethertomakeuptheDNAstruc-ture),onlytwoweredifferentfromtheoriginal.Theexperimentwasre-producibleandsuccessfulin12outof 12 tries. It was successfully re-peatedwithaDNAsequencefroma bacterium, Borrelia burgdorferi,thespirocheteresponsibleforLymedisease.

Montagnier concludes his reportwiththeobservation:

TheseelementsgivesupporttoaprovocativeexplanationofourMycoplasma pirumfiltrationexperiment:ThenanostructuresinducedbyM. pirumDNAinthefilteredwaterrepresentdifferentsegmentsofitsgenomicDNA.Eachnanostruc-ture,whenincontactwiththehumanlymphocytes,isretro-transcribed12inthecorrespondingDNAbysomecellularDNApolymerases.Thenthereisacertainprobability(evenverylow)thateachpieceofDNArecombineswithinthesamecelltootherpiecesforreconstructingthewholeDNAgenome.Wehavetoassume,thatinpresenceoftheeukaryoticcells,thesynthesisofthemycoplasmacomponents(membranelipids,ribosomes)canbealsoinstructedbythemyco-plasmaDNA.Onesinglecompletemycoplasmacellisthensufficienttogeneratethewholeinfectionoflymphocytes.RecentexperimentsoftheC.Ventergrouphaveshown[GibsonD.G.,etal.,Science,Vol.329,pp.52-56(2010)]thatasyntheticgenomicDNAissufficienttomaintainallthecharacteristicsofamycoplasma.Allthestepsassumedintheregenerationfromwatercanbeanalyzedandopentoverification.13

12. By this, I believe Montagnier means to indicate that the single-stranded DNA is synthesized as in a retrovirus, but without the presence of the RNA tem-plate. Instead, the aqueous nanostructure serves as the “template.”

13. Montagnier, “DNA Waves and Water,” op. cit.

Again, the Non-Particle ViewA broad view of the results of

Montagnier, as also those of theCraigVenter group, touch upon amost fundamental question as tothenatureoflife.Instatingtheprin-ciple,all life comes from life,aprin-ciplewhichhasneverbeenshowntobeviolatedinanyexperimenttodate, it is usual to envision somematerial process, such as egg andsperm, spore, or cell division, astheresponsibleagent.Intheresultsreported here, however, the lifeprincipleappearstobetransmitted,notbytheimmediatepresenceofamaterial substance, butmediately,inconnectionwithasignaldetect-ablebyelectromagneticapparatus.Thefullerelaborationofthemech-anisms, whether by formation ofnanostructuresinwaterassuggest-ed,orperhapsbyadditionalmeans,remainstobeworkedout.Howev-er,wecansaythattheMontagnierresults,asalsothewidelyreportedresultsoftheVentergroupincreat-ingabacterialcellcontrolledbyanassembly of a complete bacterialgenome,14 require an extension ofthat usually limited conception of

life.ButitistheworkofMontagnier,whichshedsthegreaterlightonthequestion.

Theattempttoreducetheprincipleoflifetosomethingde-rivablefromthelawsofchemistryandphysicswasneververysatisfactory.Theargumentof thevitalists, thatananimatingprinciplemust be superimposedupon thepresumedly self-evident material substance of living matter, also had itslimitations.WiththeresultsofMontagnier,werecognizethattheprinciple,omne vivum ex vivo,stillholds,butonlyontheconditionthatweadoptanon-particleconceptionoflife.

14. In 2010, researchers at the J. Craig Venter Institutes reported what some called “artificial life” (Gibson, et al., “Creation of a Bacterial Cell Con-trolled by a Chemically Synthesized Genome,” Science, Vol. 329, pp. 52-56, 2010). Ingeniously extending known methods of cloning, the team caused 100 components of artificially synthesized gene sequences to assemble into a structure virtually identical to the DNA of the bacteria Mycoplasma mycoides. Inserted into the cell of a closely related species of mycoplasma, the new cell grew into colonies, expressing the synthetic DNA sequence. The word “creation” in the article’s title is, however, misleading. To those confused into supposing that life has been created de novo, some clarity might be achieved by the very rough analogy that the synthesis requires the E. coli and baker’s yeast organisms as surrogate “father” and “mother,” as it were. The synthesis requires staged insertion of the sub-products into the larger E. coli bacterium, and then into the DNA of S. cerevisiae (baker’s yeast), where the artificial M. mycoides genome comprises about 5 percent of the total DNA length. Life is not created de novo, but only in the presence of life, as in the Montagnier experiments. This, apart from moral consider-ations as to the misuse possible in all genetic experiments, as also in the patenting of biological materials in agriculture, neither of which we take up here.

CDC

Photomicrograph of Borreliaburgdorferi, the spi-rochete bacterium that causes Lyme disease. Mon-tagnier also found electromagnetic signals from a portion of this bacterium in diluted water.

12 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

In an interview and paper published in21st Centuryin2007,1Ihaveshownthatglobalsealevelisnotinanalarmingris-

ingmode,whichisthemainthreatin the International Panel onCli-mateChangescenario.Ifsealevelisnotrisingatahighrate,thereisnoseriousthreatandnorealprob-lem.Insubsequentpapers,Icon-tinuedtopresentnewdataonsealevel stability. In Mörner 2007b,our field observational databasefromtheMaldive Islandswasde-scribed in detail.Anew study inBangladeshwaspublishedin2010(Mörner2010a).Newdatawith respect to general sea levelchangeswerepublished inanotherpaper (2010b).Also,my

1. The interview and article appear in the Fall 2007 21st Century. The interview is available online at www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles%202007/MornerInterview.pdf

THE GREAT SEA-LEVEL HUMBUG

There Is No Alarming Sea Level Rise!

byNils-AxelMörner

Oneoftheapproximately1,190beautifulcoralislandsthatcomprisethenationoftheMaldives.AsMörnershows,theMal-divesarenotindangerofinundation.

shortsealevelbooklettitled“TheGreatestLieEverTold”(Mörner2007c)wasupdatedinneweditionsin2009and2010.

HereIwillinvestigatetheproposedratesofsealevelchangesbyIPCCandothers.

Figure1illustratesthedifferencesbetweentheIPCCmodelsandtheobservationalfacts.After1965,thetwocurvesstarttodivergesignificantly(theareamarkedwithaquestionmark).Thispaperwillhighlightthedifferencesandseekthesolutionofwhatdatatotrustandwhattodiscard.

Figure2showsthespectrumofpresent-daysealevelesti-mates.Theproposedratesofsealevelriserangefrom0.0to3.2mm per year. Obviously, alltheseratescannotbecorrect. Iwill try to straighten out thequestionmarkinFigure1byun-dertakingacriticalexaminationoftheratesgiveninFigure2.

Observational FactsClearobservationalmeasure-

ments in thefield indicate thatsealevelisnotrisingintheMal-

Renowned oceanographic expert Nils-Axel Mörner has studied sea level and its effects on coastal areas for some 45 years. Recently retired as director of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics Department at Stockholm University, Mörner is past president (1999-2003) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Chang-es and Coastal Evolution, and leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project. Now he has his own company on Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics in Sweden, and can be reached at morner@pog.nu.

While the IPCC and its boy scouts present wilder and wilder sea level predictions for the near

future, the real observational facts demonstrate that sea level has remained virtually stable for

the last 40-50 years.

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 13

dives, Bangladesh, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and French Guyana(Mörner,2007a,2007b,2007c,2010a,2010b).Alltheseplac-esarekeysitesinthesealeveldebate,wheretheIPCCanditsideologicalassociateshavepredictedterriblefloodingscenar-ios.TherealityistotallydifferentfromwhattheIPCCclaims,however, as highlighted inmy interviewand article in21st Century.

The IPCC group and the Presidents of theMaldivesandTuvalucontinuetoclaimthatthefloodingisinprogress,andwillsoonfloodtheislandsandwipethoseislandnationsoff thesurfaceoftheglobe(orratherocean).Alreadyherewearefacingabehaviorthatwellmightbetermeda“sea-level-gate.”InanopenlettertothePresidentoftheMaldives(Mörner2009),Iaddressedthedivergencebetweenhisclaimand our field observations. No reply hascome.

Bangladeshisanationcursedbydisasters—heavy precipitation in the Himalayas andcoastal cyclones. As if this were not badenough,ithasbeenclaimedthatsealevelisinrapidlyrisingmode.Thisclaimhasbeentotal-lydiscreditedbymystudy in theSundarbanarea,wherethefactsarethat theseahasre-mainedstableforthelast40-50years(Mörner2010a).

Theerroneously inferredsea level risehasbeenusedtocreatewildscenarioswhereitisclaimedthattenstohundredsofthousandsofpeoplemaybedrownedand“millionsofindi-viduals will be displaced from their homesoverthecourseofthecenturyduetosea-levelrise”(ByravanaandRaja2010).Thisis,indeed,

aterriblefalsificationoftheactualsituation.Weareundoubt-edlyfacinga“sea-level-gate.”Thejournalthatpublishedthisfalseclaim,Ethics and International Affairs,refusestoprintacomment“thatfocusesonempiricaldata.”Withsurprise,wemustask:Whatisthemeaningofaddressingmoralconcern,iftheentireempiricalbaseiswrong?

InTuvalu,thePresidentcontinuestoclaimthattheyareinthe

Figure 2RATES OF SEA LEVEL CHANGES (mm/year)

Thespectrumofproposedratesofpresent-daysealevelchangesrangesfrom0.0mm/year,accordingtoobservationalfactsfromanumberofkeysitesallovertheworld,to3.2mm/year,accordingtocalibratedsatellitealtimetry.

Spectrum of estimates of present-day sea level rates

mm

/yea

r

Figure 1SEA LEVEL CHANGES (1840-2010)

Thepinkcurve,“Models,”representstheIPCC’scombinationofselectedtide-gaugerecordsandcorrectedsatellitealtimetrydata.Thebluecurve,“Observations,”representstheobservedeustaticsealevelchangesinthefieldaccordingtoMörner(1973)upto1960and(inthispaper),thereaf-ter.After1965,thetwocurvesstarttodiverge,presentingtwototallydif-ferentviews(separatedbytheareawiththequestionmark),whereonlyoneviewcanbetenable.

Observations

Models

processofbeingflooded.Yet,thetide-gaugedatapro-vide clear indication of a stability over the last 30years(Mörner2007a,2007c,2010b;Murphy2007).InVanuatu,thetide-gaugeindicatesastablesealeveloverthelast14years(Mörner2007c).

From the coasts of French Guyana and Surinamthere is a very excellent sea level record coveringmultiple18.6-yeartidalcycles(Gratiotetal.2008).Itexhibitsvariationsaroundastablezeroleveloverthelast50years(Mörner2010b).Forthesamearea,sat-ellitealtimetrygivesasealevelriseof3.0mm/year.Thiscastscleardoubtonthesatellitealtimetryvalue,asdiscussedfurtherbelow.

ThesealevelrecordfromVenicemaybeusedasatestareaforglobaleustasy.2Subtractingthesubsid-encefactor,itshowsnoriseofeustaticorigin,noac-celerationwhatsoeverinthelastdecades;instead,itshows a sea level lowering around the year 1970(Mörner2007a,2007c).

ThenorthwestEuropeancoastsareinterestingbe-

2. Eustacy or eustatic change (as opposed to changes in land lev-el) refers to changes in the ocean level (earlier thought to be global, but nowadays realized also to be regional, because of horizontal redistribution of water-masses).

14 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

causeherewehavesitesthatareexperi-encingbothupliftandsubsidence. Thetide-gaugeatKorsørintheGreatBelt(thestraitbetweenthemainDanishislandsofZealandandFunen),forexample,islo-cated at the hinge between uplift andsubsidenceforthelast8,000years.Thistide-gaugeshowsnosealevelriseinthelast50-60years.

Thetide-gaugeinAmsterdam,installedin1682,istheoldestintheworld.Super-imposingthissubsidencerecordontheuplift record from the Stockholm tide-gauge,Iwasabletoisolateaeustaticfac-tor for the time period 1680 to about1970 (Mörner 1973).This shows a risefrom1830-1840upto1930-1940of11cm. In that100-yearperiod, theEarth’srate of rotation decelerated at a valuewhichcorrespondstoa10-cmsealevelrise (see, for example, Mörner 1996).Consequently, there is a very good fitbetween sea level rise and rotationaldeceleration,whichseemstoprovideameasureofaglobalsealevelfactor(thebluelinewithrespecttotheredlineinFigure3).

Cuxhaven,ontheGermancoast,hasatide-gaugedatingbackto1843,inanareathatrepresentsthesubsidingsegmentoftheNorthSeacoasts.Figure3showstheannualmeanvaluesfor160years,withalong-termtrendpolynomialfittedtoit(Heroldun-publ.).Thiscurve(blue)givesaslightlysinusoidalrisingtrendthatrepresentsthemeanrelativesealevelchangesinthearea.

AddingtothistheeustaticcomponentofthenorthwesternEuro-peanregion(Mörner1973),wegetpartlythelocalrateofsubsid-ence(redcurve),andpartlytheeustaticcomponent,extendeduptothepresentanddouble-checkedforthepre-1970section(thedifferencebetweentheblueandtheredcurves).

The regional eustatic sea level change decelerates after1930-1940,becomesflataround1950-1970,andfallsfrom1970uptothepresent.Thisprovidesfirmevidencethatsealevelisnotatallinarapidlyrisingmodetoday;ratherthereis

Paulo Filgueiras/U.N. Photo

Theglobalwarmingmaniahascapturedmanyleadersofsmallislandnations.Here,U.N.Secretary-GeneralBanKi-moon(thirdfromleft)addressesabreakfastmeetingwithrepresentativesofsmallislandstates,inCancun,Mexico,onthesidelinesoftheU.N.ConferenceonClimateChange.

Figure 3CUXHAVEN TIDE-GAUGE RECORD

Thegrayareagivestheactualtide-gaugereadingfortheNorthSeaGermanportofCuxhavenfor1843-2003—thatis,for160years.Apolynomialwasfit-ted(byJörnHerold)tothistide-gaugerecord.AddingtheeustaticcomponentofMörner(1973)fortheperiod1840-1970,givesastraightlineofsubsidence(red)witharateof1.4mm/year.Theeustaticcomponent(thedifferencebe-tweentheblueandredcurves)cannowbeextendedupto2003,anditshowsastop in theriseataround1960, followedbyacontinual loweringup to2003;thatis,atrendtotallydifferentfromthatproposedbytheIPCCmodelsbutinfullagreementwiththeobservationalfactsinFigure1.

Thekugelbake,anoldwoodenlighthouseat the North Sea port of Cuxhaven.Thiscoastalareaisanareaofsubsidence.

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 15

theoppositetrend:aslowfallingmode.Thesedataarecombinedinthecurveof“observations”in

Figure1.

Tide-gauge RecordsTide-gaugeswereinstalledatharborconstructionstomea-

surethechangesintidallevelandlong-termsealevelchanges.TheAmsterdamtide-gaugeistheoldest,installedin1682;theStockholm tide-gauge is the second oldest, installed in1724/1774);and theLiverpool tide-gauge is the thirdoldest,installed in1768.Most tide-gaugesare installedonunstableharborconstructionsorlandingpiers.Therefore,tide-gaugere-cordsareboundtoexaggeratesealevelrise.TheNationalOce-anicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)tide-gaugedata-baseincludes159stations(Figure4).

The IPCCauthors take the liberty to selectwhat they call“representative”recordsfortheirreconstructionofthecenten-

nialsealeveltrend.This,of course, implies thattheir personal view—thatis,theIPCCscenariolaid down from the be-ginningof theproject—is imposed in theselec-tionandidentificationoftheir“representative”re-cords.We start to smellanother“sea-level-gate.”

With this selectionmethodology, Douglas(1991) chose 25 tide-gaugesandgotarateofsealevelriseof1.8mm/year;Churchetal.(2006)selected 6 tide-gaugesandgotarateof1.4mm/year;andHolgate(2007)selected 9 tide-gaugesand got a rate of 1.45

Figure 4SPECTRUM OF RATES OF NOAA’s 159 TIDE GAUGE STATIONS

The values of NOAA’s159 tide gauge stationsindicate that they rangefrom uplifted areas tosubsiding areas (greenareas).Iftheupliftingandsubsidingsites(greenar-eas) are excluded, weareleftwithanumberofsites(redarea)wheretherise in sea level rangesbetween 0.0 and 2.0mm/year.Thisisconsid-erably below the rategivenbyIPCC(pinkarea)andsatellitealtimetry(asdiscussedbelow).

mm

/yea

r

Number of tide-gauge stations

Subsidence

IPCC 2007 estimate

Uplift

eseas.org

Atide-gaugeonan industrialpier in theAdriatic. It isgroundedtothebottomwithpiles.

Vyron Lymberopoulos

Amsterdamhastheoldestinstalledtide-gaugeintheworld,datingbackto1682.Whitemarblestones(below)wereinsertedintothelocksbuiltaftersevereflooding(above).

Vyron Lymberopoulos

16 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

mm/year(Figure2).Themeanofallthe159NOAAsitesgivesarateof0.5mm/yearto0.6mm/year(Burton2010).Abet-ter approach, however, is to excludethose sites that represent uplifted andsubsidedareas(Figure4).Thisleaves68sitesofreasonablestability(stillwiththepossibilityofanexaggerationoftherateof change, as discussed above). Thesesitesgiveapresentrateofsealevelriseintheorderof1.0(±1.0)mm/year.Thisisfarbelowtheratesgivenbysatelliteal-timetry, and the smell of a “sea-level-gate”getsstronger.

Satellite AltimetrySatellitealtimetryisawonderfulnew

techniquethatoffersthereconstructionofsealevelchangesallovertheoceansurface.Thisisvital,assealevelnotonlychangesverticallybutalsohorizontally.The horizontal redistribution of watermasseswasfirstobservedforthecenten-nialtodecadalLateHolocenesealevelchanges(see,forexample,Mörner1995and1996) and is clearly shown in thesatelliterecordfrom1992-2010(see,forexample,NichollsandCasenave2010;Casenave and Llovel 2010)). Greatproblems remain with respect to thezerolevelchosenandtothelong-termtrend, however (Mörner 2004, 2007c,2008).

The Topex/Poseidon and later Jasonmissions recorded the variations of theoceansurfacewithhighresolution.Hav-ingappliedalltechnicalcorrectionneed-ed,Menard(2000andalsoAviso2000)presentedafirstsealevelgraphrangingfrom1992to2000(Figure5).

TheFigure5trendof1.0mm/yearisestablishedbythelineartrendapproach,ignoringthefactthatthebighighincy-cles175-200representsanENSO-event.(ENSOistheElNiño/LaNiña-SouthernOscillation, a quasi-periodic climate pattern that occursacrossthetropicalPacificOceaneveryfewyears.)There-fore,amuchmorerealisticapproachistotreatthatENSO-sig-nalasaseparateevent,superimposedonthelong-termtrend,asshowninFigure6(Mörner2004).Figure6showsavariabil-ity(of±10mm)aroundastablezerolevel(blueline)andastrongENSO-event(yellowlines)in1997.Thetrendthereafterislessclear(graylines).Thisgraphprovidesnoindicationofanyriseoverthetime-periodcovered(Mörner2004,2007a,2007c).

Whenthesatellitealtimetrygrouprealizedthatthe1997risewasanENSOsignal,andtheyextendedthetrendupto2003,theyseemedtohavefacedaproblem:Therewasnosealevelrisevisible,andthereforea“reinterpretation”neededtobeun-

dertaken. (Thiswasorallyconfirmedat theGlobalWarmingmeetingheldbytheRussianAcademyofScienceinMoscowin2005,whichIattended).Exactlywhatwasdoneremainsun-clear,asthesatellitealtimetrygroupsdonotspecifytheaddi-tional“corrections”theynowinfer.

In2003,thesatellitealtimetryrecord(Aviso2003)suddenlytook a new tilt—away from the quite horizontal record of1992-2000,seeninFigures5and6—of2.3(±0.1)mm/year(Figure7).

Fromwheredoesthenewtiltcome?WhatliesflatinFigure5of 2000 is now tiltedupward in Figure7of 2003 (Aviso2000,2003).Obviously,somesortof“correction”hasbeenmade,withoutspecifyingthisinawaythatallowsevaluation(seeMörner2007c,2008).Inmostgraphsrepresentingthe

Figure 5SEA LEVEL CHANGES AS OBSERVED BY TOPEX/POSEIDON IN 2000

ThesearetheannualmeansealevelchangesfromTOPEX/POSEIDONsatelliteobservations,aftertechnical“corrections”wereapplied(fromMenard2000).Aslow,long-termrisingtrendof1.0mm/yearwasidentified,butthislinearap-proachignorestheENSOeventincycles175-200.

cm

Cycles 11 (Oct. 1992) to 276 (April 2000)

Figure 6SEA LEVEL CHANGES FROM FIGURE 5,

TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE ENSO PEAKThesealevelchangesasrecordedinFigure5arepresentedherewithamorerealistictrendanalysisthattreatsthe1997ENSOpeak(yellow)asaseparateeventsuperimposedonthelong-termtrend.Thisshowsastabilityoverthefirst5years(blue)andpossiblyoverthewholetimeperiodcovered(fromMörner2004,2007c).

Sea level variations in mm

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 17

satellite altimetry sea level record (on the Internet and injournalpapers), it isnotevennoted that thegraphsdonotpresenttrendsasreadbythesatellites,buttrendsafter“cor-rections.”

Originally,itseemedthatthisextra,unspecified“correction”referredtotheglobalisostatic3adjustment(GIA)givenas2.4mm/year(see,forexample,Peltier1998)or1.8mm/year(IPCC2001).The zero isobase of GIA according to Peltier (1998)passedthroughHongKong,whereonetide-gaugegivesarela-tivesealevelriseof2.3mm/year.Thisisexactlythevalueap-pearinginFigure7.Thistide-gaugerecordiscontradictedbythe fourother recordsexisting inHongKong,andobviouslyrepresentsasitespecificsubsidence,afactwellknowntolocalgeologists.

Nevertheless,anewcalibrationfactorhasbeenintroducedintheFigure7graph.AttheMoscowglobalwarmingmeetingin2005,inanswertomycriticismsaboutthis“correction,”oneofthepersonsintheBritishIPCCdelegationsaid,“Wehadtodoso,otherwisetherewouldnotbeanytrend.”TothisIreplied:“Didyouhearwhatyouweresaying?ThisisjustwhatIamac-cusingyouofdoing.”Therefore,inmy2007booklet(Mörner2007c),theFigure7graphwastiltedbacktoitsoriginalposi-tion(Figure5).

The calibrations applied to the satellite altimetry readingswerediscussedinMitchum(2000—cf.CasenaveandNerem2004; Leuliette and Scharroo 2010).The tide-gauge recordsplayacentralroleinthis,implyingsomesortofcircularreason-inginarrivingatthecalibrations.Otherimportantfactorsaretheglobalisostaticadjustment(GIA)andverticalmovementsofthetide-gaugesites.

Mitchum(2000)statesthatinpart,“Weadoptedtherategiv-enbyDouglas(1991,1995)of1.8±0.1mm/yr,”andinpartthat“the tide-gaugeswereassumed tobevertically stable.”Boththeseassumptionsarewrong.The1.8mm/yrrateisnotwelles-tablished,butrathertheopposite(seeFigure2).Thetide-gaugerecords,especiallythoseselected,arefarfromverticallystable,but rather the opposite (this applies for the 6 sites used byChurchetal.aswellasthe25sitesusedbyDouglas).Mitchum(2000) provided the following relations (as expressed in theboxedequationbelow):

3. Isostatic refers to the balance of geological masses and the tendency towards equilibrium.

Eachofthethreeboxes(A,B,andC)includesmultiplevari-ables thatneedpainstakingandskillfulhandling,whichcer-tainlyhasnotbeendonebythegroupsdealingwiththesatellitealtimetryrecordsandtheIPCCcommunity.

Toestablishalocaltide-gaugetrend(boxA),isfarfromsim-pleandstraightforward.Cyclictrends,eventsignals,andseg-mentsmustbeidentifiedandsubtracted.Numerousdifferentvariablesaffectandinterferewiththelong-terntrend.Veryof-ten,thereisnolong-termtrend,justsegmentsthatneedindi-vidualtreatment(asinthecaseoftheBombaytide-gaugere-cord, discussed by Mörner, 2010a). ENSO-events (likeSuper-ENSOevents)mustbesubtracted,asillustratedinFig-ure 6 and shown for theTuvalu record by Mörner (2007c,2010b).

Theproposed“globalsealevelfactor”(boxB)isneverclearand trustworthy; rather, it isamatterofpersonalopinion,asseeninFigure2.Therateof1.8mm/yrissurelyanoverestimatethatisstronglyaffectedbysubsidenceatthetide-gaugesselect-ed(Figure2).Inmyopinion,abettervaluewouldbe0.0mm/yr(orjustalittleabovethis).

Thelocallandmotionatthetide-gaugesites(boxC)isan-otherintricateissuethatcallsforgeologicalunderstandingofthespecificsiteinquestion.Localsedimentarygroundchanges(suchascompaction,waterwithdrawal,andsoon)isaprimefactortoassess(Mörner2004,2010b).Thesechangescannotberecordedbysatellitemeasurements,butonlybysite-specificknowledge.Manytide-gaugesareinstalledonharborconstruc-

Figure 7SEA LEVEL CHANGES AFTER

CALIBRATION IN 2003ThesatellitealtimetryrecordisshownforTOPEX/POSEIDON (black) and Jason(red).Aspresentedin2003(Aviso2003),therecordsuddenlyhasanewtrendrep-resenting an inferred rate of 2.3 (±0.1)mm/year sea level rise.Thismeans thattheoriginalrecordspresentedinFigures5and6nowhavebeentiltedbyafactorof2.3mm/year.Wemustnowask:Fromwheredoesthistiltcome?

cm

Cycle numbers 11 (1992) to 360 (2003)

CLocalLandMotion

A LocalTide-GaugeTrend =

BGlobalSeaLevelTrend –

18 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

tionsandlandingpiersthatarefarfromstable. Crustal movements and seis-motectonicsareotherfactors.InthecaseoftheharborintheMaldivescapitalofMalé,thisislandissoheavilyoverloadedbybuildingthattheharborconstructionsfracture,andaredislocatedinwaysthatinvalidate any trustworthy tide-gaugereadingthere.

Onethingisforsure:satellitealtimetryisnotprovidingwhatisoftenclaimed,an“independent measure of sea levelchanges”asopposedtothatoftide-gaug-es and global isostatic adjustment. In-stead,itisarecorddeeplydependentonthosevariables.

With the space gravimetry observa-tionsfromGRACEithasbecomepossi-bletorecordchangesintheoceanwatermass (Casenaveetal.2009),whichap-proximate the mean global sea levelchanges(Figure8).

Theconceptoftheglobalisostaticad-justment, orGIA, is amodel, inwhichsomedataareinsupport(seeforexam-ple,Peltier1998)andotherdataare indirectcontradiction(forexample,Mörn-er2005).

GIAcorrectionshavebeenappliedtotide-gauges,sealevelrecords,satellitealtime-try,andnowtooceanmasschanges.ItseemsthatwithoutthoseGIAcorrections,thereislit-tleornoroomleftforaglobalsealevelrise.Correcting tide-gauges for GIA or regionalcrustal movement is not the correct way oftreating these typesof records. Instead, eachsite must be evaluated from its own criteriawithrespecttostability,wind,waves,sedimen-tation,compaction,loading,andtectonics.AblindGIAmodelcorrectionmayprovidequitewrong results; it is a dangerous shortcut ap-pliedby thosepersonswhoarenotsea levelspecialistsbytraining,andhencewithouttheskilltoundertakecarefulsite-specificstabilityanalysesthemselves.

Figure9showsthesatellitealtimetryrecordsas presented by NOAA (2008), which give ariseof3.2(±0.4)mm/year.

InFigure10,thesatellitealtimetryrecordofFigure9isback-tiltedtofittheoriginaltrendinFigures5and6fortheperiod1992-2000(yel-lowfields)andtherawdataofGRACEinFigure8,fortheperiod2003-2007(yellowline).Thisgives an uncorrected satellite altimetry graphshowingnosignsofanysealevelrise.Theorig-inalrecordfortheperiod1992-2000isrestored(cf.Figures5and6)andtheGRACErawdatafittherecordperfectlywell.

ThisimpliesthattheFigure9satellitealtim-

Figure 8OCEAN MASS CHANGES FROM GRACE SATELLITE DATA

Thespacegravimetry readings from theGRACEsatellites recordchanges inoceanmasswhichapproximatemeanglobalsealevelchanges(fromCasenaveetal.2009).Therawdatashowaslightloweringby–0.12(±0.06)mm/year(bluedots).Inferringaglobalisostaticadjustment(GIA)correction,whichistobequestioned,Casenaveetal.(2009)establishedacorrectedrateof1.9(±0.9)mm/year(pinkdots).Thedifferenceissignificant.Thequestioniswhetherornotthis“correction”isjustifiable.

Ocean Mass Changes (GRACE)� Sea Level Changes

mm

Raw data

GIA correcteddata

Figure 9SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AS GIVEN BY NOAA

TheTOPEX-Jasonsatellitedataprovidearecordsuggestingameansealevel rise over the period 1993-2007 of 3.2 mm/year. The Figure 8(GRACE)GIA-correctedtrendfor2003-2007(redline)agreeswiththeJasondata.Thisseemstoverifythatthesatelliterecordisstronglyaffectedby“corrections.”Consequently,thissatellitealtimetrygraphhasalong-termtrend,whichdoesnotrepresentactualinstrumentalmeasurements,butiscreatedbyinferred“corrections.”

mm

TOPEXJason60-day smoothing

GRACE Corrected trend

Univ. of Colorado 2008

Rate = 3.2 (± 0.4) mm/yrSeasonal signals removed

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 19

etry record is significantly altered bynon-technical “corrections” (whatevertheyexactlymaybe).The“corrections”appliedarenotspecifiedbytherespon-siblegroupsatCNES(TheFrenchspaceagency,CentreNationald’EtudesSpati-ales)andNOAA.Various typesofcor-rectionscanbeapplied,butthesehaveto be clearly specified.This is not thecasewiththepresentlycirculatedtrendofsealevelrisefromsatellitealtimetry(see, for example, Aviso 2003 andNOAA 2008). No doubt, we are herefacingaserious“sea-level-gate.”

If the “corrections” applied are notclearlyspecified(anddiscussedandar-gued for), then the product cannot beobjectively evaluated. In this case, itseemstohavemergedintothesectorofdisinformation. What is worse, thisseemstobeintentionallydoneinordertobackup the IPCCsea levelfloodingscenario.

I have previously claimed (Mörner2008)thatthesatellitealtimetryrecord-ingconsistsofthreesteps:(1)satellitein-strumentalreading;(2)“instrumentalre-cord” (after correction from technical

Figure 10SATELLITE ALTIMETRY BACK TILTED TO ITS

UNCORRECTED ORIGINALTheadjustedsatellitealtime-tryofFigure9 ishereback-tiltedtoitsuncorrectedorigi-naltrend.Theoriginalrecordfor the period 1992-2000(yellow field) showed vari-abilityarounda stablehori-zontal zero line (Figures 5and6).TheGRACErawdata(Figure 8) show a slightlyloweringtrendfortheperiod2003-2007(yellowline).To-getherthesetwodatasetsin-dicatethatthemeansealeveltrend has remained stableovertheentireperiod.

�M

SL

(mm

)

TOPEXJason60-day smoothingGRACE raw-data trend

30

20

10

0

–10

–20

–30

–40

1994 1996

1998 2000

2002 2004

2006 2008

Rate � 0.0 mm/yearfor the period 1992-2008

Satellite Altimetryfrom raw-data

HORIZONTAL IN EARLY 2000GRACE RAW DATA

NASA/JPL

Anartist’sillusrationofGRACE,theGravityRecoveryandClimateExperiment,ajointU.S./German satellite mission that provides high-resolution estimates of the Earth’sgravityfieldanditsvariability.TwoidenticalGRACEspacecraftflyabout220kilome-tersapartinapolarorbit,500kilometersabovetheEarth.TheymaptheEarth’sgravityfieldbyaccuratelymeasuringthedistancebetweenthetwosatellites,usingGPSandamicrowaverangingsystem.ThisprovidesinformationaboutthedistributionandflowofmasswithintheEarthanditssurroundings,includingchangescausedbysurfaceanddeepcurrentsintheoceanandexchangesbetweenicesheetsandtheoceans.

20 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

adjustments),aspresentedinFigure10;and(3)“interpretationalrecord(aftertheapplicationof“personalcalibrations”),aspresentedinFigure9.ThisisillustratedinFigure11.

As reported above regarding such adjust-ments,anIPCCmembertoldmethat“Wehadtodoso,otherwiseitwouldnotbeanytrend,”and this seems exactly to be the case. Thismeansthatwearefacingaverygrave,ifnottosay,unethical,“sea-level-gate.”Therefore,theactual“instrumentalrecord”ofsatellitealtim-etry (Figure10)givesa sea level risearound0.0mm/year.Thisfits theobservational factsmuchbetter,andweseemtoreachacoherentpictureofno,or,atmost,aminor(intheorderof0.5mm/yr), sea level riseover the last50years.

ConclusionsObservationalfactsindicatethatsealevelis

bynomeansinarapidlyrisingmode,butratherquitestable.ThisisthecaseinkeysitesliketheMaldives, Bangladesh,Tuvalu,Vanuatu, SaintPaulIsland,Qatar,FrenchGuyana,Venice,andnorthwestEurope.

Tide-gauges tend to exaggerate rising trendsbecauseofsubsidenceandcompaction.Fullsta-bility over the last 30-50 years is indicated insites likeTuvalu, India, theMaldives (andalsotheLaccadivestothenorthoftheMaldives),Ven-ice(aftersubtractingthesubsidencefactor),Cux-haven (aftersubtracting thesubsidence factor),and Korsør (a stable hinge for the last 8,000years).

Satellitealtimetryisshowntorecordvaria-tionsaroundastablezerolevelfortheentireperiod 1992-2010. Trends in the order of 3mm/year represent “interpretational records,”aftertheapplicationof“personalcalibrations,”whichcannotbesubstantiatedbyobservation-alfacts.

Therefore,wecannowreturntoFigure1andclaimthatthe“models”(pinkcurve)provideanillusivepictureofastrongsealevelriseandthatthe“observations”(bluecurve)provideagoodreconstructionoftheactualsealevelchangesoverthelast170years,withstabilityoverthelast40years.

Wecanalsoreturntothespectrumofpres-ent-daysealevelrates(Figure2)andevaluatethevariousvaluesproposed.ThisisillustratedinFigure12.Onlyratesintheorderof0.0mm/yeartomaximum0.7mm/yearseemrealistic.Thisfitswellwiththevaluesproposedforyear2100byINQUA(2000)andMörner(2004),butdifferssignificantlyfromthevaluesproposedbytheIPCC(2001,2007).

Thusweseethat thesealevel threatof theIPCC disappears.The idea of an ongoing sea

Figure 11SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AND THE TWO TYPES

OF CORRECTIONS APPLIEDTechnicaladjustmentshavetobeappliedtothesatelliteinstrumentread-ings.Thesecorrectionswereapplied to theoriginalaltimetrygraphofFigure5(Menard2000,Aviso2000)andFigure6.The“instrumentalre-cord”givesasealeveltrendontheorderof0.0mm/year(asseeninFig-ures2,6and10).Byapplyingadditional“personalcalibrations”ofasubjectivenature,graphs(“interpretationalrecords”)wereproduced(forexample,Aviso2003andNOAA2008)thatgiveaninferredsealevelriseintheorderof3mm/year(asseeninFigure9).Therefore,the“interpreta-tionalrecord”representsdisinformation,notatrue“instrumentalrecord”(fromMörner2008).

Figure 12EVALUATION OF RELIABILITY FOR DIFFERENT

PROPOSED SEA LEVEL RATESThespectrumofratevaluesofpresent-daysealevelrisecannowbeesti-matedastovalidity.Onlyvaluesintheorderof0.0mm/year(assuggest-edbyobservationalfacts)toamaximumof0.7mm/yearseemprobable.Valuesrangingfrom1.3to3.4mm/yearareconsideredtobeuntenableoverestimates.Valuesintheorderof1mm/yearrepresentminorcenten-nialrises(andfalls).Thisagreeswithestimatesofapossiblesealevelrisebyyear2100of5±15cm(Mörner2004)and10±10cm(INQUA2000),butdifferssignificantlyfromthevalueproposedbyIPCCof37±19cm(IPCC2007).

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 21

level rise that would flood islands and low-lying coasts,drowningtensofthousandsofpeopleandforcinghundredsofthousands,tomillions,ofpeopletobecomesealevelrefugeesissimplyagraveerror,herebyrevealedasanillusion,hum-bug,andterribledisinformation.This,withoutdoubt,isaseri-ousandshabby“sea-level-gate.”

Thetruefactsaretobefoundinnatureitself;certainlynotatthemodellingtables.Somerecordsareinterpretative.Othersarequiteclearandstraightforward.Ihaveoftenclaimedthat“treesdon’tlie”(forexampleinMörner2007c),referringtothelonelytreeintheMaldives,whichindicatedastablesealevelfor the last 50-60 years (and thereforewaspulleddownby

handbyagroupofAustralian“scientists”andIPCCboy-scouts).AndalsothetreesonthebeachinSundarban,indicatingastrongerosionbutnosealevelriseatall(Mörner2007c,2010a).

BythisIhope,wecanfreetheworldfromtheartificialcrisis, towhich ithasbeen condemned by the IPCC and itsboy-scouts, of an extensive and disas-troussealevelfloodinginthenearfuture.ThiswasthemainthreatintheIPCCsce-nario,andnowitisgone.References _______________________________Aviso, 2000. Observing the oceans by altimetry. www.aviso.cis.cnes.fr

Aviso, 2003. Observing the oceans by altimetry. www.aviso.cis.cnes.fr

Aviso, 2008. Mean Sea Level as seen by altimeters. www.avsio.oceanobs.com

D.A. Burton, 2010. “Analysis of global linear mean sea level (MSL)-trends, including distance-weighted averaging.” www.burtonsys.com/global_msl_trend_analysis.html

S. Byravana and S.C. Rajan, 2010. “The ethical im-plications of sea-level rise due to climate changes.” Ethics and International Affairs, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 239-260.

A. Casenave, K. Dominh, S. Guinehut, E. Berthier, W. Llovel, G. Rammien, M. Ablain, and G. Larnicol, 2009. “Sea level budget over 2003-2008: A reevalu-ation from GRACE space gravimetry, satellite altimetry and Argo.” Global Planetary Change, Vol. 65, pp. 83-88.

A. Cazenave and W. Llovel, 2010. “Contemporary sea level rise.” Ann. Rev. Marine Sci., Vol. 2, pp. 145-173.

A. Casenave, and R.S. Nerem, 2004. Present-day sea level changes: Observa-tions and causes. Rev. Geophysics, Vol. 42, pp. 1-20.

J.A. Church, N.J. White, and J.R. Hunter, 2006. “Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands.” Global Planetary Change, Vol. 53, pp. 155-168.

B.C. Douglas, 1991. “Global sea level rise.” J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 96, pp. 6981-6992.

B.C. Douglas, 1995. “Global sea level changes: determination and interpreta-tion.” Rev. Geophys., Vol. 33, pp. 1425-1432.

Malé,theislandcapitaloftheMaldives,wheremostofthenation’spopulationislocated.Dr.Mörner’sresearchofthesealevelrecordofthepast2,600yearsshowsasignificantsealevelfallinthe1970sandnosignsofanyongoingrise.

AbeachinthePacificislandofTuvalu,wherecontrarytotheIPCCfearscenarios,thesealevelhasbeenstableforthreedecades.

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N. Gratiot, E.J. Anthony, A. Gardel, C. Gaucherel, C. Proisy, and J.T. Wells, 2008. “Significant con-tribution of the 18.6 year tidal cycle to regional coastal changes.” Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, pp. 169-172 (doi: 10.1038/ngeo127).

S.J. Holgate, 2007. “On the decadal rates of sea lev-el change during the twentieth century.” Geo-phys. Res. Letters, Vol. 34, LO1602, doi:10.1029/2006GL028492.

INQUA, 2000. “Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution.” www.pog.su.se, (from 2005: www.pog.nu).

IPCC, 2001. Climate Change. (Cambridge: Cam-bridge Univ. Press).

IPPC, 2007. Climate Change. (Cambridge: Cam-bridge Univ. Press).

G. Menard, 2000. “Satellite-based altimetry reveals physical ocean.” MEDIAS Newsletter, Vol. 12, pp. 9-17.

G.T. Mitchum, 2000. “An improved calibration of sat-ellite altimetric heights using tide gauge sea lev-els with adjustment for land motion.” Marine Ge-odesy, Vol. 23, pp. 145-166.

N.-A. Mörner, 1973. “Eustatic changes during the last 300 years.” Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclim. Pal-aeoecol., Vol. 13, pp. 1-14.

N.-A. Mörner, 1995. “Earth rotation, ocean circula-tion and paleoclimate.” GeoJournal, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 419-430.

N.-A. Mörner, 1996. “Sea Level Variability.” Z. Geo-morphology N.S., Vol. 102, pp. 223-232.

N.-A. Mörner, 2004. “Estimating future sea level changes.” Global Planet. Change, Vol. 40, pp. 49-54.

N.-A. Mörner, 2005. “Sea level changes and crustal movements with special aspects on the Mediter-ranean.” Z. Geomorph. N.F., Suppl. Vol. 137, pp. 91-102.

N.-A. Mörner, 2007a. “The Sun rules climate. There’s no danger of global sea level rise.” 21st Century, Fall 2007, pp. 31-34.

N.-A. Mörner, 2007b. “Sea Level Changes and Tsu-namis. Environmental Stress and Migration over the Seas.” Internationales Asienforum, Vol. 38, pp. 353-374.

N.-A. Mörner, 2007c. “The Greatest Lie Ever Told.” P&G-print (2nd edition 2009, 3rd edition 2010.

N.-A. Mörner, 2008. “Comments.” Global Planet. Change, Vol. 62, pp. 219-220.

N.-A. Mörner, 2009. “Open letter to the President of the Maldives.” New Concepts in Global Tecton-ics Newsletter, No. 53, pp. 80-83.

N.-A. Mörner, 2010a. “Sea level changes in Bangla-desh. New observational facts.” Energy and En-vironment, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 249-263.

N.-A. Mörner, 2010b. “Some problems in the re-construction of mean sea level and its changes with time.” Quaternary International, Vol. 221, pp. 3-8.

G. Murphy, 2007. “Claim that sea level is rising is a total fraud (interview).” 21st Century, Fall 2007, pp. 33-37.

R.J. Nicholls and A. Casenave, 2010. “Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones.” Science, Vol. 328, pp. 1517-1520.

NOAA, 2008. “The NOAA satellite altimetry pro-gram: Closing the sea level rise budget with al-rimetry, Argos and Grace.” www.oco.noaa.gov .

W.R. Peltier, 1998. “Postglacial variations in the lev-el of the sea: implications for climate dynamics and solid-earth geophysics.” Rev. Geophysics, Vol. 36, pp. 603-689.

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 23

Editor’s note: This is an edited transcript of a talk Dr. Cleve gave to an ExecutiveIntelligenceReview seminar, Sept. 28, 2010, in Frankfurt, Germany.

Dr. Cleve was the head of the engineering department of BrownBoveri/Krupp Reaktorbau GmbH, where he was respon-sible for the engineering, design, building, testing, and putting into operation of the AVR high tempera-ture reactor. Later he worked in management for companies that built large plants for energy and en-vironment. He retired in 1992, and is now the last living member of the BBC/Krupp leading crew.

His presentation was translated from the German by Vyron Lymber-opoulos.

Initsfirstissueof2010,theGer-man-languageFusionmagazine

reprintedamostinterestingcontri-bution by Dr. Rudolf Schulten,“Old and New Ways in NuclearTechnology,” which was initiallypublished in 1990. Today, morethan20yearsafterthatfirstpubli-cation,itisexcitingtogivealec-tureinwhichIcansubstantiateful-ly that HighTemperature Reactortechnologyisstilluptodate,andIwillprovidetheevidencethatthethoughtsandconsiderationswhichDr.Schultenhadasayoungen-gineer during the 1950s, havebeen, and are still correct andtrend-setting.

Asayoungengineer,Iwasexcitedaboutthetaskofcollabo-ratingonthereactorconceptinventedbyProfessorSchulten,theAVRReactorinJülich.At33,Iwasinaleadingpositionasheadofthedepartmentforcompleteengineeringandrespon-sible for design, erection, testing, and commissioningof thecompletereactor,uptoitshandovertothecustomer.

Ihaveneverlostthisexcitement,andthereforeIamhappytogivethispresentation.Iwillbeginwithsomebasicconsider-ationsfromtheviewpointoftheenergypolicyofGermanyatthattime.

TheGermaneconomyafterthewarwasbasedon:(1)Themost inexpensive and as cheap as possiblepower

supplyforindustryandhouseholdsforelectricityproduction.It

wasbelievedthatanexcessivelyexpensivepriceofelectricityisantisocial,andbyandlarge,thatitwouldhinderthegrowthofthenationaleconomy.

(2)Securityofsupply.(3)Optimumuseofavailablefuelandcapabilitiesforelec-

tricityandpowerproduction,bothforhouseholdsandtrans-portation.

Forthispurpose,wehadavailablesolidfuel(coalandlig-nite),andliquidfuel(oilandnaturalgas).Alltheseprimaryen-ergysourcesaresuitableforelectricpowergenerationinpowerplants.Todate,onlyliquidfuelistechnicallysoundandeco-nomicallyusefulforhouseholdsandtransportation.

Inelectricityproduction,theobjectivewasthenprimarilytousecoalandlignite.Thenobleenergies,oilandgas,should

RUDOLFSCHULTEN’SHIGHTEMPERATUREREACTOR

A Technology Ready for TodaybyDr.UrbanCleve

NUCLEAR REPORT

EIRNS

TheAVRexperimentalhightemperaturereactor.Dr.Cleveheadedtheengineeringteamthatdesignedandbuiltthenuclearreactor.

Dr.CleveaddressingtheEIRseminarin

Frankfurt.

NUCLEARREPORT

24 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

onlybeusedinlargepowerplantsinspecialcasesofgreatbenefittotheeconomy.Backthen,thepopularbe-liefwasthatthesefuelswouldonlybeavailable fora limitedperiodoftime,perhapsup to the turnof the20thCentury.This turnedout tobetoo pessimistic. Today, nobodyknowshowlongthesereserveswilltrulylast,withaconstantincreaseintheuseofenergyandaconstantris-ingworldpopulation.Furthermore,thefactisthatoilandgasarelimitedandbecomingsteadilymoreexpen-sive.That surelydoesnotneed fur-therdiscussion.

Germany is one of the poorestnationsinoilandnaturalgas.Onlycoaliswidelyavailable.Tocounter-act,atanearly stage,anexpectedworldwidepowershortagetocome,and to avoid its effects, nuclearpower plants were already beingdeveloped and built worldwideduring the 1950s.The same short-ageproblem remains today,but inaddition to nuclear plants, the so-calledrenewables—windandsolarpower—arenowconsideredalternatives.Somewordsonthatlater.

By the1950s,ProfessorSchultenalreadyhad the ideaofbuilding very high temperature reactors, which would notonlyburnuranium-235(ofwhichtherearerelativelylimiteddeposits innature),butalsobreedthoriumasnuclear fuelandthenburnitasuranium-233.Hisdeliberationsforatech-nical solutionwerebasedon the following reactor funda-mentals:

•Sphere-shaped fuelelements,becauseof their superiorflowandheattransfercharacteristics.Duringreactoropera-tion, these fuelballscanbecirculated, replaced, removed,and stored; and burn-up measurements of the fuel can bemade.

•Graphiteasabasicmaterialforfuelelementsandthereac-torcore,whichwouldserveasamoderatorforneutronradia-tionandissuitableinparticularforveryhighoperatingtem-peratures.

•Heliumascoolant,becauseofitsveryhighheat-transfercoefficient.

•Anintegrated,self-containedprimarycircuitreactorcon-cept,toobtainthehighestsafetystandards

•Uranium-235andthorium-232asfuel,withtheobjectiveofbreedingnewfuelfromthethorium,whichdecaystoU-233.

•Highoperatingtemperaturesforelectricityproductionwiththehighestthermodynamicefficiency,foroptimumutilizationofthenuclearfuel.

•Useofthehighheatmadepossiblebythehightempera-turesofthenuclearreaction,transferredbytheheliumgas,fortheengineeringandchemicalprocessesofgasificationofcoal,

lignite,turf,andotherbiomass.Thus,nuclearfuelwouldbeusedtopro-duceliquidfuelsforhouseholdsandtransportation.

•Inherentreactorsafety.AMaxi-mum Credible Accident or MCAscenariocannotoccur,evenduringcompletefailureofthecoolingsys-tem.

Thesewerethevisionaryconsid-erations that led to the success ofthis technology then, and today,60 years later, all these consider-ationsarestillvalid,withnoexcep-tions. Inhisfield,ProfessorSchul-tenwas aheadof his time, and inthis respect, actually only compa-rable to space scientist WernhervonBraun.

ThedevelopmentpursuedinGer-manywiththehightemperaturere-actor is a big achievement, eventhough environmentalists do notwanttoacknowledgethisandpoliti-cianshavenotyet recognized this.Bytheendofthe1990s,whentheexperimental AVR and the THTR(Thorium High Temperature Reac-

tor)weredecommissionedbecauseofpoliticalpressure,Ger-manyhadaleadingpositioninthistechnologyworldwide,al-mostamonopoly.

Technical ChallengesTheimplementationoftheseideasposedextremedemands

onengineeringtechnology.Heliumgasconstitutedoneofthelargestproblems.Itisaverythinanddrygas,whichhadnotbeenusedtothisextentbefore.

All the reactor components had to be constructed fromscratch,withoutanypriorexamplesandwithoutpreviousex-perience. These components were tried and tested undernormalconditions in test facilities,andmost failedwheninstalledinthereactorandoperatedunderheliumconditions.This inevitably led toconstant scheduledelaysandcostincreases.

Asanexecutive,thepressureonmewasenormous.Fromthetop,itwasonceputforwardtome:“Youbuildeverythingtwotimes.”Myanswerwasshort:“Yes,thatisnearlytrue,butnoth-ingthreetimes.”

Testingandtryinguntilultimatereliabilityisachievedandallproblemsareidentifiedandsolved,isthedecisivefoundationfor successful development. One time I angrily said, “WhatshallIdo—avoidcostsandkeepdeadlines,orbuildaninstalla-tionthatworks;youcan’thaveboth?”Iwasyoungenoughtoassertmyself.

Itisbeyondthescopehere,toexplainallthetechnicalprob-lemsandpointout the solutions.Nevertheless, to theengi-neers,onedevelopment,andonecansaythedecidingone,wasverybeneficial.Thiswasthedevelopmentoffuelelements

Dr.RudolfSchulten,whodevelopedtheconceptofthepebblebedhightemperaturenuclearreactor.

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21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 25

with so-called “coatedparti-cles.” Without this develop-mentunderwideinternation-alcooperation,successoftheAVR would have becomevastlymoredifficult.Thenewgraphitefuelpebbles,embed-dedwithcoateduraniumpar-ticles, were developed—andthisshouldbeemphasized—incooperationwith:TheAVRinGermany;theDragonproj-ect in the United Kingdom;Gulf GeneralAtomics in theUnited States; the Jülich nu-clear researchcenter inGer-many; the Institut Laue-Lan-gevinnuclearresearchcenterinGrenoble,France;theAus-triannuclear researchcenterat Seibersdorf; the Petten re-actorcenterintheNetherlands;theAtomicEnergyAgencyintheUnitedKingdom;theUnionCarbideCorp.intheUnitedStates;andNukem,togetherwithHobeginGermany.

Thisuniqueinternationalcooperationwasmainlyco-financedbytheFederalMinistryofResearchandEducation,whichcontributedadecisiveshare.Thesuccessofthisdevel-

opment is best representedwhenonelooksattheoriginaldesignof theheliumcoolingsystem, in the AVR reactor.Initially,theradioactivitywascalculatedat107 curie. Sub-sequently,theactualradioac-tivity measured amounted to360curieonly.

AVR: An Unparalleled Success

TheAVR first went criticalonAugust28,1966,aftersuc-cessfully passing all the testrunsofdifferentcomponents,and nuclear physical mea-surementstoverifythecalcu-lations.

On December 18, 1966,forthefirsttimethesteamtur-

binewasconnected to thegrid,withanoutputof6mega-watts.Thereafter the reactor was in operation for 22 years,untilDecember31,1988.

Thereactorwasshutdownin1988solelyforpoliticalrea-sons.Therewerenotechnicaldoubts,andcertainlynodoubtsoftechnicalsafetywerepresent.For22yearsofoperation,a

technicalsafetyupgradewasnotneces-sary, no insolvable problems emerged,and no significant technical modifica-tionswerenecessary.Everythingwaswellthoughtoutfromthestart.

Oneevent,however,isofforemostim-portance.In1967,forthefirsttime,wetested a Maximum Credible Accident,whichisonewherethefuelelementslosetheircoolantandallreactorsafetydevic-esfail.Thiswasatestofthereactor’sin-herent safety concept, devised by Dr.Schulten,whichruledoutthepossibilityofsuchanMCA.Thisexcitingexperimenttookplaceprivately,andwasbarelyno-

ticedoutsideoftheplant.The reactor was driven to the

maximum power of 15 mega-watts-electric and a predeter-mined operating temperature of850°Celsius.Next,allsafetyde-vicesweredisabled,andthecool-inggasfanswereswitchedoff.Aswe had calculated, the reactorcooleddownbyitselfoverafewdays,dissipatingtheresidualheatfromthecoretotheoutside.

Worldwide, this was the firstplannedMCAinanuclearpowerplant. Nobody outside noticedanything,noradiationpenetrated

The successor to theAVR:The 300-megawattThorium HighTemperatureReactor(THTR)operatedforthreeyears,until itwasshutdownforpolitical,nottechnical,reasons.

Hans Weingartz

PoliticalpressureshutdownGermany’shigh-temperaturereactors.Above:Ananti-nuclearprotestinBonn,aftertheThreeMileIslandaccidentin1979.Right:Greenterroristsinthe1980sattackaGermannuclearplant.

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26 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

outsidethereactorcore,andfromthecontrolroomtheopera-tionalstaffcouldobservethecourseoftheexperimentunmo-lested.ThisMCAexperimentwasrepeatedin1979,thistime,however, with detailed recordings and measurements of theentiresequence.

Chernobyltookplacelater,in1986;itwasnotthefirstMCA.TheterriblebacklashoftheChernobyldisaster,acompletelydifferentreactorconstruction,weighsheavilyuponanysafetydiscussionofnuclearpowerplantseventoday.Atpresent,theHTRistheonlyreactorconcept,inwhichsuchanaccidentisruledout,onthebasisofnuclearphysics.

Keepinganythingunderwrapsinpoliticsandpublicopin-ionisincomprehensibletoeverynuclearspecialist.Andso,whenwediscussfailures,weshouldmen-tiononeseriousfailureintheAVRsteamgenerator.Thesteamgenerator isconsid-eredacriticalunit,because,ifitleaks,wa-tercouldpermeatetheheliumsystem,re-quiringatotalshutdownofoperation.

Several hundred thousand AVR weldseamshadbeenexaminedduringconstruc-tion,andallavailabletestingmethodswereapplied, even those newly developed. Allinspectionsandpressuretestswerepassedwithoutcomplaint.Obviously,theeffectsofwater penetration in the system had beencalculated in many computations andprobes.Allindicatedthatanalarmingnucle-arfailurecouldnotoccur.But,sureenough,thisfailuredidoccur,althoughitwasnotre-latedtosafety.Accordingtotheinternation-alseven-stageassessmentscaleforincidentsand accidents in nuclear installations, thisfailurecanbecategorizedasalevel1—sim-plyananomaly.

Nevertheless, the stoppage of several

months,torepairthedamage,wasunfavorablefromanopera-tionalstandpoint.Practicallyallotherreactorcomponentsop-eratedwithoutflaws.Partlyworn-outcomponentsand smalldefectscouldbefixedduringongoingoperation,makinguseof

Figure 1TRISO FUEL ELEMENTS

Theuniquedesignforthepebblebedfuelhasakernelofuraniumoxidesurroundedbylayersofpyroliticcarbon,siliconcarbon,andgraphite.Thesefuelelementsarethenembeddedina“containment”structurethesizeofaten-nisball.

U-free zone

U-containing zoneBuffer layer

I-PyC layer

SiC layer

UO2 kernel

O-PyC layer

0.9 mm

Coated fuel particle

60 mm

Spherical fuel element

Figure 2CROSS-SECTION OF THE AVR PRIMARY CIRCUIT

Feedwater inlet

Steam generator

Ring gap

Graphite reflector

Reactor core

Steam outlet

Inner vessel

Outer vessel

Biological shield I

Carbon brick

Thermal shield

Sphere discharge tube

Main coolant valve

Coolant blower

Figure 3INNER GRAPHITE CORE OF THE AVR

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21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 27

disassemblytechnologythatwasspeciallydevelopedforsuchevents,withoutexposingstafftoexcessiveirradiation.

Asaprototype, theoperationof theAVRwasanunparal-leledsuccessstory.Notasingleradiationaccidentoccurred.During22yearsofoperation,notasingleemployeewasex-posedtoanexcessivelyhighradiationdose.Thereleaseofra-dioactivesubstancestotheatmospherewasinsubstantial;theexceedingofpermissibledosesdidnotoccurevenonce.Withtheexceptionofthesteamgenerator,alloperationalfailuresthatwerenot100percentpreventablecanbeclassifiedas“0”ontheassessmentscale—havingnoorinsubstantialsafetyre-latedconcern.

Theutilizationfactor,thepercentageofreactoronlineopera-tiontimeover22years,was66.4percent.Asanexperimentalreactor,particularlyfortestingvariousfuelelements,undertheinternational development program mentioned above, thedowntimeforthisworkis included.Thehighestoperationalavailabilitywasreachedin1976,at92percent.Althoughinter-nationalstatisticswerenotkept,certainlythiswasaworldre-cordforatechnologydevelopedfromscratch.

The THTR Is Conceived As a Follow-upAlreadyin1966,thebasicconceptforafollow-upreactor

wasdeveloped.Outputwasspecifiedat300megawatts-elec-tric.Withoutpreviousoperationalexperience,surelyitwasagiantleapfroman15-MWeexperimentalreactortoademon-strationreactorof300MW.Afterweighingallarguments,proandcon,itwasacourageousdecisiontoproceedwiththelarg-erreactor,andanappropriateonefortoday.

WithrespecttotheAVRtechnology,wehadtoaccomplishsubstantialconstructionalterationsforthelargerreactor:

•Thesteelpressurevesselhadtobereplaced.Aprestressedconcretepressurevesselwasdesigned,acompletelynewde-sign,globally.

•Thelimitedactivityofheliumpermittedustodowithout

pressure-tight containment. Therefore, onlyanunpressurizedsteelcasingwasdesigned.

•Becauseofitsincreasedperformance,thegaseousheliumcoolanthadtoflowthroughthereactorfromtoptobottom;otherwisethefuel elementswouldwithdraw to theupperlayers.

•Anewmechanismwas incorporatedasthe trigger for the fuel elements. Once thisconcept was well advanced during design,thereactorphysicistsfoundthatthediameterofthepebblebedwassolarge,itwasnolon-gerpracticallypossibletoguidetheshutdownandcontrolrodsintheoutergraphitereflectorwithoutmechanicalstress.Therefore,there-actorwouldnotbeabletoshutdowncom-pletely.

Duringaroundtablemeetingwithallstaffmembers, this extremely difficult problemwasdiscussed.Afteritbecameclearthatdam-ageendangeringthestaff,andaboveall,theenvironment,couldnotoccur,itwasdecidedtodrive the shutdown rodsdirectly into the

pebblebed.Thisresultedinaverycomplicatedconstructionoftheserods,andthepossibledangerofthedestructionoffuelelements.

Figure 5AVR FUEL EXTRACTION SYSTEM

Spherechute

Reducer

Singulator

Detector 1

Detector 2

Valve

Shielding

Separator

Valve

Dosing wheel

Scrapcontainer

Figure 4DIAGRAM OF AVR GAS COOLING BLOWERS

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Itwasacknowledgedthat,inordertolearnifthisproposedconstructionwasatalltechnicallyfeasible,areactorof300-MWsizehad tobebuilt.Thealternativewouldhavebeenaconventionalringcoredesign,althoughwithout longstanding knowledge of operational be-havioroftheAVR’sgraphiteinterior,theconstructionriskforthisdesignappearedevengreater.Twenty-threeyearslater,aftertheshutdownoftheAVR,thisdecisionprovedtohavebeenamistake,becausewefoundthatafter22yearsofoperationthegraphiteinterioroftheAVRwasasifbrandnew.Notasingleblockhadshift-edeven1millimeter!

Unfortunately thedecisionwas in favorofdrivingshutdownrodsintothepebblebed.Operationalexpe-riencewiththedemonstrationreactorhadtobepost-poned inorder tomake thefinaldecisionata laterstage.Duringcommissioning, regrettably, the feareddifficulties actually happened.The conditional diffi-cultieswerecontrolledduringoperationofthereac-tor, but nevertheless, the reactor operated for threeyears.

ComparingthefailureratebetweentheAVRandtheTHTRshowstheproblem.Thefailureratepercirculat-edfuelelementoftheAVRwas0.0092percent,com-paredwiththeTHTRat0.6percent.Naturallythatwas

fartoohigh.Thesolecausesofthishighrateweretheshutdownrods and the new trigger mechanism.All other componentsperformedflawlessly.

TheTHTRoperatedforthreeyears(1986-1989),accumulat-ing16,000hours.Thistimeofoperationwassufficienttoob-tain sufficient understanding and experience to build addi-tional reactors. A finding of major importance was thetrouble-freeoperationofsteamgeneration,with thehighestthermodynamicefficiency,includingintermediatesuperheat-ing.Thestartup,shutdown,androutineoperationoftheTHTRinstallationhadoperatingresultsthatwerefullycomparabletoconventionalpowerplants.AswiththeAVR,notasinglerelevanttechnicalfailureoccurred.Despiteproblemsthatoc-curred, theoperating staffwasneveroverexposed to radia-tion.

The essential findings and experience with theTHTR-300canbesummarizedasfollows:

•Accordingtoguidelinesofloaddistribution,HTRpowerplantscanbeutilizedforthesupplygrid;controlcharacteris-tics, also with regard to maintaining frequency, are perfect.When idle, evenwhen repairingopenprimarycomponents,thestaffisnotexcessivelyexposedtoradiation.

•The radioactivityof theprimarygasheliumdidnot risewhenthepebblefractureoccurred;thecoatedparticlesaresosmallandstrongthattheycannotbreak.

•Allnewlydesignedcomponents,and theentire installa-tion,except for theabove-describedproblemwithexcessivepebblefractures,functionedflawlessly.

•Asdemonstratedbyunequivocalevidence,thesafetytech-nologyissoadvancedthatnoriskexiststotheoperatorsandthepopulation.Becauseoftheverylowradioactivecontamina-tionofthehelium,anevacuationofthepopulationisnotnec-essaryincaseofaworstconceivableaccident.

Despite itsshortoperatingtime, thedemonstrationreactor

Figure 6BASIC DIAGRAM OF THE AVR FUEL CYCLE

Charge room forfuel elements

Charge fins

Discharge fins

Elevator

From blower Dischargecompartment

Core

Sphere valve

Fuel elementdischarge tube

Containment

Counting coil

Failed fuelseparator

Dosingwheel

Reducer

Scrapcontainer

Singulator

Figure 7LOSS-OF-COOLANT SIMULATED ACCIDENT TEST RESULTS

TheAVRshutdownandcooleddownasdesigned,whenopera-torsforcedaloss-of-coolantsituation.

Shutdown Rod Nose (Above the Pebble Bed)

Shutdown Rod Nose (Core Center)

Side Reflector(Core Center)

Outside Center Inside

Bottom Reflector

0 50 100Test time (Hours)

1000

500

0

Beginning Accident Simulation

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

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21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 29

has yieldedall thenecessary knowledgeandexperience re-quiredtobuildnewHTRpowerplantssafely.Althoughlittleknownpublicly,thedecommissionedreactorprovidestheevi-dencethatitsprestressedconcretepressurevesselisthesafeststoragerepositoryforradiatingcomponents.Thereisnothingmoresafe than this froma technicalengineeringstandpoint.Noradiationcanbedetectedontheoutsideoftheprestressedconcretepressurevessel.Anice restaurantbuilton theroof,withsplendidviewsovertheMünsterlandwouldcertainlybeanexcellentuseforthesite!

HTR Decommissioning LessonsTheresultsofthecombinedoperationalexperiencewiththe

AVRandTHTRshowthat,withoutfurtherdevelopment, it ispossible toapply this technologyona large scale.Herearesomeofmyconclusions,frommyexperience:

Tomaximizesafetyisbyfarthemostimportantcriterionwithafutureveryhightemperaturereactor.Furthermore,theques-tionoffinalstorageofradioactivematerials,afterdecommis-sioningsuchaninstallation,shouldbeplannedfromthestart.ThetechnologyIdescribe,hastobeunderstoodasanintegrat-edconceptofself-containedNuclearHighTemperatureTech-nology(NHTT).Thefollowingdesignprinciplesarethecenter-pieceofNHTT:

•Earthquakeresistanceuptomagnitude6,whichforourre-gion here is the highest imaginable seismic security.This isachieved through an extensive, strong concrete foundation,whichformsalargebaseareaandenablesastable,gas-tightconcretesubstructure.Allactivitieswhichcouldbeassociatedwithexposuretoradiationarecarriedoutinthespacebelowtheactualreactor.This,forexample,includesperformingre-pairs on components, decontamination of the components,and,eventually,permanentstorageinconfinedspaces.Alsoitwouldbethefinalrepositoryforspentfuel.Theaimshouldbethatnocomponent thathasbeenexposed to radiationmustleavethepremises.Therefore,no“spentfueltransports”tooth-

ernuclearsitesarerequired.ExperiencewiththeTHTR-300,hasshownthisispossiblewith-outanyproblems.

•A meltdown, a maximum credible acci-dent,isruledoutfromthestandpointofnuclearphysics—theinherentpassivesafetysystemofthereactor.

•Thespherical-shapedfuelelementsprovedtobethebestnuclearfuel.Toalargedegree,the fissionable material in the fuel particles,withadiameterofonly0.5mm,iskeptinsidethecoreofthecoatedparticlesbyhighdensitygas-tightcoversofpyrolyticcarbon(PyC)andsiliconcarbide(SiC).Theselayerscomprisethefirst barrier to prevent the escape of fissionproductstotheheliumcoolantgas.

Further, compared to all other designs, thesphericalfuelelementshavetheadvantagethatthey are very compact and easy to handle.Therefore, after many years of operation, thenecessaryspaceforintermediatestorageordis-posal,isverysmall,andcaneasilybeaccom-modatedintheconcretesubstructure.

•Intermsofsafety,theprestressedconcretepressurevesselprovedbest;itistheimportantsecondbarrieragainstthees-

Figure 9RING CORE DESIGN FOR A PEBBLE BED

5.

1.

7.

2.

6.

8.

3.

9.4.

10.

1. Prestressed concrete pressure vessel 2. Ring pebble bed reactor core 3. Graphite structure 4. Fuel chamber 5. Regulation and shutdown rods 6. Liner with insulation and water cooling system 7. Helium heat exchanger inlet 8. Helium heat exchanger outlet 9. Concrete support for prestressed pressure vessel and biological shield10. Concrete foundation

Figure 8SCHEMATIC OF THE 300-MW THTR POWER STATION

Reactor core crane

Turbine room crane300 MW turbine

Reactor rodsSteam Generator

Reactor

Ventilation systemCharging system

Reactor pressure vessel

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30 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

capeofradioactivity.•Anunpressurizedcontainmentsurroundingtheentirein-

stallation,constitutesthethirdbarrier.Thevolumeofthisstruc-tureissolarge,thatitcantrapandcontainalltheheliumpri-mary gas in the cooling system, without any leakage to theoutside.

•Insteadofacentralfuel-elementtriggermechanismwithacenteredpebblebedcore,aringcoreisbuiltwithmultipletrig-gerdevices.Withthesamebasicconcept,itenablesabuildingofmediumsizetoequalthehighperformanceinstallationsatoptimal circulation of the fuel elements.The shutdown andcontrolrodsareinstalledinthegraphitereflectorswithoutme-chanicalstress.

•Adoublehelium-heliumcyclepre-vents the transfer of fission products,includinggraphitedust,totheexterior.Theprimarypartofthereactorisalsosafe against “foreign object invasion”fromtheoutside.

•Thisconceptallowsasimplemeansofcontrolofthewhereaboutsofnucle-armaterial.

•Thepressurevessel’s5-to6-meter-thickwallsofprestressedconcretepro-videsafetyagainstallkindsofterroristthreats, including aircraft crashes.Thesewallsevenstandupagainsttar-gettedmissileattacks.

Tothisextent,theseadvantagesoftechnologicalsafetycouldnotbereachedbyanyotherknownnuclearpowerplant.

High Temperature EconomicsNow,insummary,hereisabriefassessmentoftheeconom-

icsofHTRtechnology:•Thesphericalfuelelementsarethesafestnuclearfuel.Op-

erationally,theyaremosteasytohandleandmostsafetostorepermanently because of their low volume of radioactivity.Moreover,theyallowchangeoffuelelementsduringoperationandwithoutshuttingdowntheinstallation.Thisisamajorad-vantagefromthestandpointofoperationaleconomy.

•Thehighprimarygastemperatureallowsthehighestther-modynamic efficiency, hence the best utilization of nuclearfuel.

•Inadditiontogeneratingelectricity,thehigh-temperatureheatcanbeusedforvariousindustrialprocesses;forexample,fortheproductionofliquidorgaseousfuels.

•Theuseofthorium-232enablesthebreedingoffissileura-nium-233asnewfuel.Therefore,theavailablereservesofura-niumU-235,incombinationwiththorium-232willsufficein-definitely.

The Carbon Dioxide MythFinally,awordonthequestionofcarbondioxideintheat-

mosphere. Without CO2, the planet Earth is uninhabitable.ThosewhoclaimthatCO2isa“harmfulgas”or“toxicgas,”andwhoaimforazeroCO2targetforplanetEarth,showanincom-prehensibly low level of minimal, most elementary basicknowledge,andlackofgeneraleducation.Accuratescientificevidence of the CO2 influence on the climate of our planet

Earthdoesnotexist.Onthecontrary,formillenniatheclimateofourEarthhasbeenchanging,evenwithouthumanbeings.Nature,notman,butalsotheuniverse,withtheSun,Moon,andstars,governourclimate.

Dr. S. Fred Singer comprehensively described this in hisbook Nature, Not Human Activity, Determines the Climate.WiththeexceptionofGermanyandsomeEuropeanstates,allstatesareactingaccordinglyworldwide,especiallytheUnitedStatesandChina.Therefore,theplannedemissionstradeforpowerplantsiscompleteandutternonsense.NuclearpowerplantoperatorsshouldnotemphasizetheadvantageofzeroCO2emissions,onlytheeconomicsupremacyofthenuclear

technology.In all nuclear power plants, elec-

tricityisgeneratedatacostfactor6to30timeslowerthanispossibleinin-stallations with renewable energy,now and in the long run. Electricitycostscompriseacrucialshareoftheburden on the population, and highelectricity prices are extremely anti-social.Aboveall,energy-intensivein-dustry,whichtodaymakesmillionsofsecurejobsavailable,wouldhavede-cisive disadvantages compared withforeign competition if Germany per-sistswith so-called renewables.Ger-manyisweakened,andpossiblywill

bedestroyedbythehighcostof“renewableenergy.”Thismostcertainlywillleadtoadecisiveweakeninginallsectorsofoureconomy,withtheresultthattherewillbenomoneyavailableforoursocialprograms.

Onlyanenergymixby themost inexpensiveproductionplantsisaneconomicallysoundenergymix.AsIexplainedatthestart,thiswastrueinthepostwaryears,andstillistrueto-day.InalettertotheeditorofthedailyFrankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,onJuly19,2010,Dr. JürgenGrossmanndescribedthesituationasfollows:“Itisallaboutabrutalindustrialpol-icy.”Whoeverdoesnotacknowledgethis,andactaccording-ly,commitsasinagainsttheGermaneconomy.

Howabsurdaretheeffortsbyourgovernmentandtheoppo-sitionparties,attemptingtogainworldwideleadershipin“re-newableenergy”soastopreventCO2emissionsandtherebyprotect theclimate, isdemonstratedbyasimplecalculation,whichappearedinalettertotheeditoroftheFrankfurter Allge-meine Zeitung,of January14,2010, (andwhichbroughtmetremendoussupport):

“Whenthereisnoman-madeCO2producedatallinGer-many,andthenationwouldhaveceasedtoexist,thisreductionwouldaccountfor0.00004712percentoftotalCO2emissionsproducedonourplanetworldwide.ThosewhostillpursuethiszeroCO2target,therefore,musthavesuccumbedtoanunbe-lievabledelusionofgrandeur.”*

* For more detailed explanations of this presentation, see www.buerger-for-technik.de, nuclear engineering 2009 and 2010; www.eike-klima-energie.eu/news-anzeige/ umwelt-klima-energie.

More comprehensive articles about the CO2 theme, written by thousands of scientists around the world, and not yet understood or read by German politi-cians, can be found at www.eike-air-energie.eu and www.buerger-for-technik.de. I also recommend the book cited by Dr. S. Fred Singer.

“When there is no man-made CO2 produced at all in

Germany, and the nation would have ceased to exist,

this reduction would account for 0.00004712 percent of

total CO2 emissions produced on our planet worldwide.”

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21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 31

On July 10, 2010, the New York Times published another article

abouttheHanfordnuclearsiteinEast-ernWashington,thisonebyveteranre-porter Matthew Wald. (http://tinyurl.com/2azj5kz). It requires some correc-tivecomments.

During World War II, Hanford waschosenbytheArmyCorpsofEngineerstobeoneof thesites inwhatwasthencalled the Manhattan Project. Hanfordproducedthemajorityofthenation’sin-ventoryof plutonium, including that inthebombdroppedonNagasaki.

Having many decades of experienceworking at Hanford, including workingwithplutoniumandmanagingaplutoni-umlaboratory,itgetswearisometoreadsuch superficial, inadequate, and mis-leadingarticles.

Given this specialized background, Ifeelanobligationtocommentonthear-ticlebyTimesreporterWald,thereporthereportson,theauthorsofthereport,*

andsomeofthereferenceslistedinthereport.Myobjections include thehugelackofcontext,exaggerations,omissionsof fact, omissions of key research find-ings regardinghealtheffectsofplutoni-um, omissions regarding interesting as-pects of the Hanford environment,inadequateliteraturesourcing,andomis-sion of comments on other materialssuchasamericium.

Let’sstartwiththeheadline:“AnalysisTriples U.S. Plutonium Waste Figures.”Nowhereinhisarticledoesthereporterprovide the relative magnitudes of thebefore and after values. Therefore, thereader cannot assess for himself theamounts of plutonium involved. Threetimesasmallnumberisstillasmallnum-ber, for example.As written, therefore,theheadline is irrelevantandmeaning-less.

But in theuniverseofproblemswiththisTimesarticleandthereportitisbasedon,thelackofinformationon“Plutoni-

umWasteFigures”onlyhintsatwhatliesaheadintermsofotherirrelevancies.

TheapparentpurposeofthepaperandtheTimesarticleistocreateanotherim-ageofloomingdoomrelatedtotheHan-fordclean-upmission.Suchstoriesofim-pendingdoomfromHanfordhavebeenfrequent fare from Hanford critics formorethantwodecades,andallofthemsufferfromthesamelitanyofexaggerat-edfears.

Central to the scare stories are thetwo familiar concepts—“deadly” plu-toniumand24,000-yearhalf-life.Thesehave been common bugaboos sincethe1970s,whentheantinuclearforcesandtheirfriendsinthemediayappedinconcert like Pavlovian dogs.The scarestories haven’t changed for nearly 40years,yetduringthistimethousandsofworkersoperatedquitesafelywithplu-tonium,becausewehappentoknowalotaboutitandhowtoworksafelywithit.

When one is managing a plutoniumlab, with dozens of workers, personalsafetyof friendsandcolleagueswasal-ways of utmost importance and a no-nonsensepartofeverydaylife.Thatsafe-tyeffortpaidoff,intermsofestablishingan excellent health and safety record.Obviously,weworkedhardandcareful-ly with safety training, laboratory con-duct,practices,andhabits.

Gee-Whizzy Half-LivesNow for thatbignumber:One is re-

minded of children discovering a gee-whizzynewwordorbignumberforthefirsttime.“Hey,Dad,wantmetocountto100?”Withregardtothatfrightening24,000-yearhalf-life,thetermhalf-lifeiscommonlyappliedtoallknownradioac-tivematerials,andisnotscaryforanyone

Let’s Tell the Truth About Plutonium and HanfordbyMichaelR.Fox,Ph.D.

Savannah River Site/DOE

Aprocessed“button”ofplutonium.

NUCLEARREPORT

32 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

who has taken course work in radio-chemistry.

Norintheuniverseofradioactivesub-stances is the 24,000-year number un-usualforahalf-life.Forexample,potas-sium-40 is radioactive and along withtwo other non-radioactive forms of po-tassium, is measurably present in allforms of life—including humans, thisauthor, the report authors, and theTimesreporter. Ithasahalf-lifeof1.4billionyears.Itisthereinlivingtissueandquitemeasurablewithtoday’sde-tectors.

Radioactive thorium exists in all soilsamples around the world, and has ahalf-lifeofabout14billionyears.Carry-ingthehalf-lifediscussiontoitsobviousabsurd ending, elements such as lead,mercury,andarsenic,asstableelementsmaybedescribedashavinghalf-livesofeternityinlength.

Whenonecheckswith the“ChartoftheNuclides,”therearemorethan3,000knownnuclides,andallbutabout250areradioactive.Manyofthemformanddecay in trillionthsofa secondor less,anddonotoccurinabundancenaturally.Butwestillknowalotaboutthem.Oth-ers,asnotedabove,havehalflivesofbil-lionsofyears.

Onelong-liveduraniumnuclidehasahalf-life of about 4.5 billion years, theageoftheEarth.Uranium,whichcanbefound in all soil samples in the world,wasdiscoveredin1896byAntoineBec-querelofFrance. Ithasbeen114years

sincethatdiscoveryofnaturalradioactiv-ity, yet I’d dare estimate that even as apartofournaturalenvironment,99per-centofthepubliccannotgivea5-minutediscussiononthesubject.Sameforabout100percentofthemedia.

Aftermorethanacenturyofsuchpub-licignoranceregardingournaturalenvi-ronment, it’swaypast the time thatwelearn.Thisisbutapartofthehugecon-

textmissing fromthesediscussionsandarticles.

Natural Radioactivity and RiskThediscoveryofnaturalradioactivity

turnedtheworldofphysicsupsidedownforthenext60years,andwasandstillisamajorfactorinthehistoryof20thCen-turyphysics.Thereismuchmoretothissubject than merely plutonium and its24,000-year half-life. This world ofphysics is essentially unknown to theAmericanpublicand to theuncuriousmedia.

TheHanfordReservationisoneofthemostheavilymonitoredtractsoflandintheworld,and ithasbeen reportedonannuallyforabout40years.Theseannu-alreportsareintheopenliterature,andavailable to all. (See for example Han-ford Site 2008 Environmental Report,h t tp : / /hanford-site.pnl.gov/envreport/)Notsurprisingly,thesereportsarerarelydiscussedbyeithertheanti-Hanfordcrit-icsorbyanyofthemedia.

Thesereportsarephenomenalinbothscopeanddepthofdetails.Thedistribu-tionlistfortheseannualreportsishuge,going to state and Federal agenciesacrossthenation.ThereportsalsohelpexplainwhyHanford isnota threat topublic health, because the radiationdosesarefartoosmall—oftenlessthan

DOE

TheFReactorplutoniumproductioncomplexatHanford.Theboxybuildingbetweenthetwowatertowersontherightistheplutoniumproductionreactor;thelongbuild-inginthecenterofthephotographisthewatertreatmentplant

DOE

Thecanyondeckofthe820-foot-long221-BplutoniumprocessingplantatHanford,whichproducedweaponsplutoniumduringWorldWarII.

NUCLEARREPORT

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 33

thedosesreceivedfromnaturalradioac-tivity.

Basedupontheseenvironmentalmon-itoringprograms,relevantepidemiologyprograms, dosimetry measuring andmonitoringprograms,etc.,forbothwork-ersandsurroundingpopulations,thera-dioactive health threats from Hanfordoperations are so extremely small thatthey are statistically indistinguishablefromzero.

SincethehealththreatsfromtheHan-fordoperationsaresosmall,ahugeethi-cal problem arises out of risk manage-ment considerations. As of July 2009,WashingtonStatehad6,664,195people.Theaveragemortality ratewas725per100,000,oratotalof48,285funeralsin2008. Nearly 22 percent (10,622) ofthesewerefromheartdiseaseandabout20 percent (9,657) of these were fromcancer. Suppose we were concernedaboutreducingthecancermortalityratesfortheStateofWashington,withafixedbudgettodoso.Howwouldweallocatesuchresources?

Common sense would dictate usingsuch allocations where the mortalityrateswerewellaboveexpectedvalues.These locationsdoexist inWashingtonState,butsuchlocationsdonotincludeHanford.Giventhatthecancerexcessesoccurelsewhereinthestate,whatfrac-tionofthatfixedbudgetshouldbedirect-ed at reducing cancer at Hanford?Theanswer,iffairnessapplied,wouldbelit-tleornone.

However, the Hanford clean-up pro-gram (portrayed as a huge safety pro-

gram)iscostingtaxpayersabout$2bil-lionperyear,withestimatesapproaching$100billionbeforeit’sdone.Nomatterhowmuchmoney is spentonHanfordcleanupefforts,adecline in thecancerrateswillneverbe shown,because theHanford cancer rates are quite normalnow.Intermsofbasicprinciplesofriskmanagement, theHanfordcleanup isatragicwasteoftaxpayerresourcesintheallegedpursuitofpublicsafety.

Using the same fixed budget in thepursuit of public safety, hundreds, per-hapsthousandsofWashingtonStatelivescould be saved by spending these re-sourcesprotectingpeoplefrommeasur-ablymoreharmfulactivities.

‘Pure and Simple’ LiesTheTimesreporterquotedtheactivist

lawyerGerryPolletassaying“WhatisreasonablyforeseeableisthattherearepeoplewhowillbedrinkingthewaterinthegroundatHanfordatsomepointin thenext fewhundredsyears.We’regoing to be killing people, pure andsimple.”

Plutonium toxicity is most assuredlynotthat“pureandsimple.”Theactivistlawyerapparentlyisacaptiveinhisowndemon-haunted world, as Carl Saganmight have said. His well-rehearsedlineshavebeencommonlyheard fromhim and from the anti-Hanford move-ment foryears,withoutsupportiveevi-dence.

Hisstatementisnotsupportedbyen-vironmental and epidemiology studiesofplutonium.Hisstatementthat“Ithasbeen found to cause lung, liver, and

bone cancer in humans” is also refer-encedintheAlvarezreport,*toanotherpamphletwiththesamequote.Thepam-phletwaspublishedby theAgency forToxic Substances and Disease Registry(ATSDR).It,too,doesnotprovidethelit-erature source of the above statementaboutplutonium.

Sincethestatementisunreferenceditmust be considered hearsay, of whichthereisplentytochoosefrom.

InstrongcontrasttotheTimesarticle,there are many quantitative scientificanalysesofthe“MythofPlutoniumTox-icity,”suchasthatbyDr.BernardCohen,attheDepartmentofPhysicsattheUni-versityofPittsburgh. (See, forexample,http://russp.org/BLC-3.html.)

Some Plutonium RealitiesMyexperienceswithlaboratorystud-

iesofplutoniumshowthatitisspectac-ularlyinsolubleinwaterandmostothersolvents.Plutoniumpreferstoremaininthesolidstate,oftenboundtosoilsol-ids; thus any study of the transport ofplutonium through underground soilformationsbegsgreatanddetailedscru-tiny.

Inmanycases,plutoniumalsoshouldnotbeconsideredlethalevenifitisin-gested.Atlowdosesofplutoniuminhu-mans,epidemiologystudiesshowthatitwasdifficulttofindobservableharm,letalone cancer, and let alone death.The

Library of Congress

Puttingradiationinperspective:The“MileHigh”cityofDenver,Coloradoin1898.Then,asnow,residentsofDenverreceivedmorenaturalbackgroundradiation(50millirem)thanU.S.citizenslivingatsealevel(26millirem).RadiationdosesattheHanfordsitearesmall,oftenlessthanthedosesreceivedfromnaturalradioactivity.

* The report, by professional anti-nuke Robert Alva-rez, has been accepted for publication in Science and Global Security, a journal published by Prince-ton University’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

NUCLEARREPORT

34 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

cited report made no mention of thesehuman epidemiology studies and thenegativeresults.

My friend and scientific colleagueRichardEmeryperformedastudyofoneof thepondsatHanfordwhichhad re-ceivedlowlevelsofplutonium(http://tinyurl.com/25odcag). It was describedas“oneofthemostcontaminatedbodiesof water” in the world.This may havebeenfactuallytrue,butwasmissingtheimportantcontext.

Acarefulreadingofhisresearchpapershowsamuchmoreinterestingdescrip-tionof thepond,whichhadphenome-nallylowlevelsofplutonium.Itactuallysupported a rich and diverse wildlifepopulation from the bass and bluegillfish in thewater, toanumberofbirds,and thepopulationofpredatorsofher-onsandcoyotes.

These animals were thriving becausetheplutoniumradiationdoseswereex-tremely low (in spite of the exaggera-tions).Emeryalsocalculatedthatifahu-manateonepoundofthefishfromthisU-pondeverydayfor70years,hewouldnot receive a significant dose of radia-tion—hardlycancerousorlethal.

Thepondandtherichwildlifepopula-tionshavenowbeendestroyed,thankstofear and science illiteracy and the mil-lionsofdollarsusedtodoso.Thisisoneof thepriceswepay for fear,exaggera-tion,andlotsofmoney.

Afternearly40years,theHanfordcrit-

icscontinuetorepeatthesameoldscarestories,andthemediacontinuetorepeatthe scares without fact checking, andcontinuetoignorealotofthescientificliterature. We have also learned thatthese“truebelievers,”inthewordsofau-thorChristopherBooker,exhibitakindofmoralisticself-righteousfanaticismjusti-fied by the supposed transcendent im-portanceoftheircause.

Foryears,thisfanaticismhasprevent-edanatmosphereofseriousdiscussion,letalonearationalapproachtotheriskmanagement of Hanford. In fact, thescare stories have made a mockery ofriskanalysesandriskmanagement,nottomention thewasteofbillionsof taxdollars thrown at Hanford cleanup inthepursuitofsmallorzerorisk.

Michael R. Fox, Ph.D., is a nuclear sci-entist and a science and energy re-source for Hawaii Reporter and a sci-ence analyst for the Grassroot Institute of Hawaii. Now retired, he has nearly 40 years experience in the energy field and he also taught chemistry and ener-gy at the university level. His interest in the communication of science has led to several communications awards, hundreds of speeches, and many ap-pearances on television and talk shows. He can be reached via email at mike@foxreport.org.

A version of this article previously ap-peared in theHawaiiReporter.

DOE

TheHanfordsiteontheColumbiaRiver.“Afternearly40years,theHanfordcriticscontinuetorepeatthesameoldscarestories.”

NUCLEARREPORT

HISTORY OF ROCKETRYAND ASTRONAUTICS

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Web Site:www.univelt.com

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 35

No continent on Earth is inmore desperate need of

space science and technologythanAfrica.Dramatically raisingthe standard of living ofAfrica’speoples requires a brute-force,great-project approach, a leap-frogover20thCenturymethods,to directly employ the most ad-vanced technologies that areavailable, and those that are onthecuspofdevelopment.

AspartoftheglobalextensionoftheNorthAmericanWaterandPower Alliance (NAWAPA), theLaRouche PoliticalAction Com-mittee has proposed the Trans-aquaproject,whichwould sup-ply water to Lake Chad, and tothe surrounding region, and bethecenterpieceof economic in-frastructureprojectstounlockthepotential of Africa. (www.la-rouchepac.com/node/15817).Transformingthecontinentthroughproj-ectsofthescopeofTransaqua,requiresmappingresources,comprehensivewa-termanagement,geographicandgeolog-icanalysis,landuseplanning,thetrack-ing of disease, and agriculturalmonitoring—allofwhicharedonemostefficiently using space-based technolo-gies.Landremote-sensingsat-elliteshavelongbeenrecog-nized by numerous Africannationsasanecessarytoolforscientifically informed eco-nomicdevelopment.

Communication satellites,whichcanconnectruralandremote communities to edu-cationalprograms,andhealthandothergovernmentservic-es,alsohelptoknittogetheracoherent national culture.Such satellites also connectAfricannationswitheachoth-er,enablinginternationalde-velopment projects with acontinentalimpact.

Butmorethananyspecificeconomicbenefit from space technology applica-tions, such national programs create acadre of scientists, engineers, techni-cians, and highly skilled machine-toolandmanufacturingoperatives,whocanthen take the lead increatingquantumjumps in productivity throughout the

economy, and laying the basisforthebreakthroughsbythenextgenerationofAfricans.

Enormous PotentialAtpresent,onlyahandfulof

nations in Africa participate intheapplicationofspacetechnol-ogy,suchastheuseofremote-sensing and satellite communi-cations capabilities. But theneed, and the potential, areenormous.

SouthAfrica,whichhasdevel-oped the most extensive spacecapabilityinAfrica,announcedtheestablishmentofitsSouthAf-ricaNationalSpaceAgencyonDec.9oflastyear.Itwillbringtogetherdisparatespace-relatedefforts in the country, and willalsoaimtorevivespacefacilitiesthathavebeenmothballedsincethe1990s.Thenewagencyplansto create a satellite-design and

buildingcapacity,usinglocalexpertise,building on its successful Sumbandilamicro-satellite,andcircumventingitsre-liance on satellites from abroad. Thisyear,itwillbeginafeasibilitystudytoas-sess the state of the facilities left overfrom its medium-range ballistic missileprogram,withtheviewtowardcreatinga

satellite launch vehicle, andwillextenditsparticipationininternational astronomy proj-ects.

Nigeria established its Na-tional Space Research andDevelopment Agency in1999.The nation’s first satel-lite,Nigeriasat-1,waspartofaninternationalmicrosatelliteDisaster Monitoring Constel-lation,andwasbuiltbySurreySatellite in England. It waslaunched by Russia in 2003,andproduceshighqualityre-mote-sensing images. Nige-ria’sfirstcommunicationssat-ellite, the Chinese-built

Space Technology Can Transform AfricabyMarshaFreeman

SPACE REPORT

SSTL

NigerianengineersworkingonNigeriaSat-XatSurreySatelliteTechnology,Ltd.

GFSC/NASA/SeaWiFS

TheAfricancontinentisatthecenterofthisglobalvisu-alization,whichwasproducedwithdata collectedbyNASA’s SeaWiFS instrument. Dark green on land, andred,yellow,andgreenontheocean,showwherelifeismostproductive.

SPACE

36 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

NigComSat-1,waslaunchedby China in 2007. But thesatellitefailedonorbitayearlater, and will be replacedlaterthisyear.Nigeria’sNige-riaSat-2isalsoscheduledforlaunch later thisyear, alongwithatrainingmodel,whichwasundertakenbyNigerianscientistsandengineers.

TheAlgerianSpaceAgen-cywascreatedin2002,andsoonafter,sawthelaunchofits Alsat-1 remote-sensingsatellite, also part of SurreySatellite’sfive-satelliteDisas-terMonitoringConstellation.In July 2010, the European-built Alsat-2 was launchedbyIndia,whichincludedanintensive training programfor Algerian engineers andscientists.

EgypthasoperateditsownEuropean-built communica-tions satellite since1998.Afollow-on,Nilesat-2,ofsimi-lardesign,waslaunchedtwoyearslater.A next-generation communications sat-ellite,Nilesat-201,waslaunchedinAu-gustoflastyear.ForEarthremote-sensingcapabilities, Egypt has teamed up withUkraine’sYuzhnoy Design Bureau, andEgyptSat-1 was launched in 2007.ThecontractwithUkraineincludedthetrain-ing of Egyptian satellite operators, andEgypt’sgroundreceivingstationscapturethesatelliteimages.

Egyptianscientists,bothathomeandabroad, have participated with NASAandotherinternationalscientistsinstud-iesoftheNorthAfricandesert,theloca-tionofancientsubterraneanwaterchan-nels, and existing underground waterresources.In2004,aninternationalteamtookdeepradarsoundingmeasurementsattheBakarezaOasis,testinginstrumentsthatcouldbeusedtofindsubsurfacewa-teronMars.

Going RegionalVarious regionalAfrican spaceorga-

nizationshavebeenproposed,andsomehavebeencreated,topoolAfrica’slim-itedresourcesdevotedtospaceapplica-tions.Nairobi,Kenya,hoststheRegionalCenterforMappingofResourcesforDe-velopment,whichhastheparticipationof 15 African member-states. Satellitedata are used to predict floods, as an

earlywarningtoolfordisasters,totrackwater-bornediseases,andforinfrastruc-tureplanning,continent-wide.

In2009, formerdirectorof the spaceprogramofEgypt,Dr.MohamedArgoun(seeaccompanying interview), speakingattheGlobalSpaceTech-nology Forum in AbuDhabi, proposed thattherebeaPan-Arabspaceagency in the future,whenthereisaconcrete,multilateral program inplace,withindustrialanduniversity participation.MiddleEasternandAfri-canArabnations,hesug-gested,shoulddevelopaspace technology indus-try,tocontributetoanew,high-resolution Earth re-gional observation satel-lite.

Another regional ini-tiative came in August2010, when the Minis-ters of CommunicationandInformationTechnol-ogies of the AfricanUnionagreedtoconductafeasibilitystudyontheformation of an African

SpaceAgency.Itsfocuswouldbeontelecommunicationsca-pabilities.

More recently, Dr. ArgounhasproposedanAfricaSat, tobring together, and enhance,thetechnicalandindustrialca-pabilities of Africa. After hispresentationat the61st Inter-national Astronautical Con-gress, held in Prague, theCzechRepublic,inSeptember2010, he was interviewed byEIR’sWilliamJonesaboutthisproposal,and the importanceofbringingwatertotheAfricandeserts.

SciencecanstillsaveAfrica.Thismuststartwithaglobalfi-nancialandeconomicreorga-nization that begins in theUnited States, with the re-placementof thebankruptfi-nancial system through aGlass-Steagall policy, the re-turntoacredit-basedeconom-icgrowthpolicy,andinterna-

tional agreements to make that policyglobal.Inthisway,Africacanfinallybefreeofhundredsofyearsofcolonialrule,and decades of international financialstrangulation,andreadytotrulyentertheSpaceAge.

www.sunspace.co.za

SouthAfrica’sSumbandilamicro-satellitebeforeitslaunchinSeptember2009,fromtheBaikonurCosmodrome.Sumbandilameans“leadtheway”intheVendalanguage.

www.sunspace.co.za

Sumbandilaimageof theSouthAfricancityofStellen-bosch,homeoftheuniversitythathelpeddesignthesat-ellite.

SPACE

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 37

Dr. Argoun is the former director of the space program of Egypt, the National Au-thority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS). He is currently pro-fessor of Aerospace Engineering at Cairo University. After presenting his paper, “Recent Design and Utilization Trends of Small Satellites in Developing Countries,” at the International Astronautical Con-gress (IAC) in Prague, he was interviewed on Sept. 29 by EIR Washington bureau chief, William Jones, on his proposal for a continent-wide satellite project, to help industrialize Africa.

***Question: I’d like to ask you about the project you talked about yesterday in your presentation at the IAC. You stated that this project would help bring space technologies to Africa, and expand them to serve as a wedge toward economic development in a very hard-hit part of the world.

TheprojectiscalledAfricasat.Thisisaneffort,oraproject,tobringthedevelopingcountriesinAfricaintospace technology. Several coun-tries inAfrica have tried to buildsmallsatellites.

Question: How many African countries involved in space tech-nology are there now?

SouthAfricaiswell-advancedinthatdirection.EgypthasanEgyptSatprogram. Nigeria has Nigeria-Sat,with two satellites, I believe.AndAlgeria.Also,Moroccohasbuiltasmallsatellitesomeyearsago.

As I was saying in my talk, in1990,thereemergedamovetogetdevelopingcountriesintothespacebusiness.Basically,thethemeistobringthebenefitsofspacetodevel-oping countries.Onedirectionofthis,waslearningspacetechnolo-gy,makingtheengineers,thetech-nicalpeople,acquiringall theinsandoutsofthistypeofthing,there-byenhancingtheindustryandthe

scientificresearch,andthepublicawareness of space, and eventu-ally, using the applications andthe technologies. So this was atechnology-orientedtypeofproj-ect,asopposedtoanapplication-orientedtype,asopposedtousingthe images for development,which is another track of spaceapplications.

Onthetechnologyaspect,manycoun-triesstartedbuildingsmallsatellites,andespeciallyremote-sensingsatellites,sim-ply because they are simpler, easier tobuild, they don’t cost much to launch,and they’re smaller in size.So that isaway of getting into space technologywithoutgettingintoverylargesatellites.Formostofthesecountries,theyearsbe-tween 1992 and 2002, approximately,during thatperiodof10years,becametheperiodoflaunchingmanysmallsatel-lites. Itwaspioneeredbycompanies intheUnitedKingdomandinSouthKorea,

who offered the technology to thesecountries,throughcooperationandtrain-ingprograms.

Thepointis,thatafterawhile,govern-mentsupportfortheseprogramsbecamelessenthusiastic.

Question: Is that because of the ex-pense?

Because of the expense. Also thesecountriesdon’thaveaverystrongindus-trial base in high-tech.Therefore, thesespaceprogramsexistgenerallyasanis-landintheindustrialspaceofthesecoun-tries.It’sdifficulttosupportthisandkeep

itgoing,becauseinordertokeepitgoing,youneedalotofinputfromastrongindustry.Governmentssup-port these programs because theypromisealotofindustrialdevelop-mentparticularly,buttheeconomicreturniskindofslowincoming,be-cause the infrastructure for usingspacetechnologyorspaceapplica-tionsinthesecountriesisnotverystrong.

Youhavesatellitesandtheyhaveadvantages,butnobodyusesthemasmuchastheydoelsewhere.Sothesatellitesarethere,butthesatel-litesareonlyatoolofthetechnol-ogy.

Whenyoucometosecond-gen-eration satellites, then youhave agap of government support. Andthis threatens the initialsuccessfulmoveofgettingthesecountriesintoaninitialindustrialstage,basicallythroughspacetechnology.Theybe-gintowonder—thesethingsaredif-ficult, they can’t be done, they

INTERVIEW:DR.MOHAMEDARGOUN

‘Bring the Benefits of Space To Developing Countries’

Dr.Argoun:TheAfricaSatprojectisthewayforAfrican countries to develop capabilities inspacetechnologybyworkingtogethertobuildsatellites.

NARSS

EgyptSat-1,hereinanartist’sdrawing,isaminisatel-liteprojectofEgypt’sNARSS(NationalAuthorityforRemoteSensingandSpaceScience)and theYuzh-noyeStateDesignOfficeofUkraine.Yuzhnoyepro-vided technical expertise, on-the-job training, andtechnologytransferto60Egyptianengineersandex-perts.EgyptSat-1was launched inApril2007 fromtheBaikonurCosmodrome.

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38 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

haven’tthebackgroundortheeducationinthesecountries,andsoon.But,ifyoumake a satellite, you can eventuallymakeanythingelse.Itisawayoftrans-formingthesedevelopingcountriesintoanindustrializedcountry,inaway.

Sowhentheinterestwanesorfadesabit,theseprogramsstop,manyofthem,oratleastslowdown.SotheideaIwaspromotingintheAfricaSatprojectisthattheway for thesecountries tocontinuegettingintospaceanddevelopingcapa-bilitiesinspacetechnologyistocontinuebuildingsatellites.Butthereisnoneedtobuild a satellite for each country, andhave every country working on every-thing.Wecanachieve thesameobjec-tives, and much more efficiently, if allthese countries join into building onesatellite, and every country contributesinwhateverareaitwantstocontribute.

Question: Can you give an example?Ifacertaincountryhasaparticularin-

terest,oraparticulardevelopmentinthecommunication area, they can designthecommunicationssystemandbuildit.Ifsomeothercountryisinmaterials,theycanworkonthestructure.Soeachcoun-

trychoosesthat,andtheygetthebenefitofthechoicetheymake.

ThisissimilartowhathappenedinEu-rope,wherethecountriesoftheEurope-anSpaceAgencyconcentrateontheareathey like, and everybody builds infra-structureintheareatheywanttodevelopinsidetheircountry,buttheyallpartici-pateintheglobalproject.It’ssimilartothatinAfrica.Andspacebyitsnatureisacollaborativeeffort.Eventhesatelliteit-selfdoesnotseeborders,andnewinfor-mationflowsfreelyinthisarea.Eveninbuilding satellites, it’s much more effi-cientandmuchmoreeconomicalifyoudoitasacollaborativeeffort.

So,whatwearesuggestingisthattheprojectbeundertheUnitedNationsum-brella,because theUnitedNationswasthe one that initiated the UNISPACE-IIIConference,whichwasheldin1999,andreally supported this. They encouragedadvancedcountriestotransfertechnolo-gyforspaceforpeacefulpurposestoun-derdevelopedcountries.Theyencouragedunderdeveloped countries and gov-ernmentstogetintothis.Andactuallytheyarestillorganizingalltheseworkshopstosupportthesetypesofendeavors.

So,we are suggesting that under theumbrellaoftheU.N.,therebeformedaconsortium,oragroupofwillingcoun-tries and willing entities, that together

willhelpbuildasatellite,overthelongrun,forAfrica.Andofcourse,itwillbedirected at the benefit of the Africancountries,notonlyintermsoftechnolo-gy,butalsoimagesandapplicationsandthelike.Andeventually,twothingswillhappen. The countries will have theknowledgeandtheknow-how,andtheywillhaveasystemthatbringsthesecoun-triestogetherformajorprojects.

OneoftheproblemsincountriesinAf-ricaisthattheydonotcooperateeffec-tivelyand there’sno system forflowofmanagementandinformationandwork-ingtogether.So,ifyoudoaprojectlikethis and succeed in making it happen,thenyouunclogalotofthings.

Question: How do you take this technol-ogy, perhaps relating to the Egyptian ex-perience, in order to create a technical cadre which might have a more general benefit for the nation economically?

Thiswasoneoftheregionalobjectivesfor the space program when we pro-posedit.Andthatis,ifyouacceptandsucceedin implementing thisprogram,it gives you a certificate of quality foryourproductsandyourprocessesthatisvalideverywhereintheworld.Inaway,space technology has certain features,thatifitinfiltratesintothelocalindustry,it raises the quality level significantly.

AnillustrationfromDr.Argoun’spresentationtotheSpacePresentationEnvironmentConferenceinCairo,May2008.

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SPACE

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 39

Things like deadlines.The planning ofspacetakesalotofplanning:Everymoveiscarefullyplannedandtimedveryac-curately.Thequalityofthematerials,theinadmissibility of error in processes. Ifyoubringtheseconcepts,anddotheseprojectswiththelocalindustry,thenyouraisethestandardofthatindustrysignifi-cantly.And if you succeed in the finalproduct,then,asIsaid,yougetthecer-tificate of quality to expand. If Egyptmakessatelliteswiththeirownpeople,thennobodywillbeworriedaboutim-portingfromthem.

Sotodothis,weshouldrealizethatsatellite-mak-ingisinanarrowstripoftheindustry.Wearetalk-ingaboutasectorinEgyptthathas100or150peo-pleworkinginit,andper-hapswillbecomeseveralthousand. It’s not like amajor industry. But, incertainareasoftheindus-try,inelectronics,incon-sumerproductsofahigh-er level, it’s instrumental.Itcanchangethings.

So,whatwetriedtodoisgetthecomponentsandthepartsofthesatellitestobemanufacturedinEgyptunder license. We suc-ceeded in making a few,

not many, components. We plannedoriginally in the EgyptSat program tobuild eight components, and we suc-ceededinthree.Sothereisadegreeofsuccess. It’s just a general concept, tobringinthebenefitsofspacetechnologytoindustry,toscientificresearchinstitu-tions,touniversities,andtothecommonpeople.Werealizethatthisisnotagreatnumberofpeopleinvolved,butitisim-portant.

DesertSatQuestion: Now you have developed EgyptSat-1 and are working on EgyptSat-2, and then you will begin on DesertSat. Tell me about DesertSat and how you in-tend to utilize this. Obviously, this would be of service in dealing with that other major problem for Africa, which is wa-ter.

Whatwehave in theEgyptian spaceprogram is the third satellite. We havehadoneeveryfiveyears,butwithahigh-erdegree,anincreasingdegree,oflocalparticipationineachone.Sowehad50percentinthefirstone,wherewewerelearningandgettingthetraining,andsoon;60percentinthesecondone;andwewillhave85percentandhigherinDes-ertSat.EgyptSat-1waslaunchedin2007,EgyptSat-2wassupposedtobereadyin2012,and2017forDesertSat.

Now the idea of DesertSat, is thatEgypt, andAfrica actually, have certaincharacteristicsofitsland—ofcourse,itisdesert.Sowhatyouneedinasatellitetoexplorethedesertisdifferentfromwhatyouneed inaneducation-type satelliteorinaneyesightsatellite,asinCanada.Thesensors,orthescanners,whicharethe exploring vehicles of the satellite,willhavedifferentfeatures,willlookfordifferentthings.

Whatyou look for in thedesert is,asyoumentioned,basicallythewater,traces

ofwater,andpossiblyoil.And formations of miner-als,andthatkindofwealth.So we are looking at thespectral stamp of thesephenomena and trying tomakethesensormoresen-sitivetothesethanitis,forexample,tooceanwater.

Onething, forexample,in looking for water: Youwould look for tempera-ture,becauseifthereiswa-terinanareainsidethedes-ert, in a pool somewhere,but underground, whathappens,isthatthesandinthatareamightbeslightlywetter,slightlycoolerthantheothersand.Soyouhavetohaveasensitivitytothisdifferentialinthetempera-ture. This is what we’rehoping—to get the sensordesignedandbuiltbythat

NARSS

EgyptSat-1beingassembledinthenoseconeoftheDneprlauncher,alongwithotherpayloads.

iinitiative.wordpress.com/category/satellites/

Governmentrepresentativessigningamemorandumofunderstanding,duringtheThirdAfricanLeadershipConferenceonSpaceScienceandTechnology for Sustainable Development, in Algiers, in December2009.TheAfricanResourceManagementConstellationinvolvesanini-tialcollaborationofNigeria,SouthAfrica,Kenya,andAlgeriaaroundsharingofsatellitedata.

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40 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

timeandflyitonDesertSat,andusethattomapthedesertinadifferentway.ThatwasourobjectivewithDesertSat.

WearenowarealsoworkingtotrytodesignsensorsatCairoUniversity,whereIamnowdoingsomeresearchwork,inthatdirection,andalsotryingtogetinter-nationalcooperationonthesekindofop-erations.

It’s interesting.We see thiswealthofthedesert, ifyoulookat it inoneway;anditisabigproblem,ifyoulookatitdifferently.Andwehavetoutilizethatinsomewayandthisisoneofthewayswecandothat.

Question: Tell me about the develop-ment of your space technicians. Initially, with EgyptSat-1, you sent out your peo-ple to Ukraine for training. How many were there at that time?

Therewere64.Andthereareanother60orsowhohaveenteredtheprogram.

Question: Can you see the point where you would have the internal resources to build your own cadre independently?

Certainly,Ishouldthink64isalargenumberforthistypeofwork.Whenwefirst envisioned the project, and talkedwithmanyofthecompaniesinthecoun-try,wetalkedabout20orso.Butourob-jectivewasdifferent.Itwastogetalargernumberandtousethem,asIsaid,asafertilizationforothergroups.

SoforEgyptSat-2,anumberlike300,ormaybearound240specialists,wouldnotbealargenumber.It’saboutwhatisneeded.Becausethe60werejustlearn-ers,butbehindthemwasallofUkraine’sspace industry.You can’t transfer all of

thatwith60people.Soweneed to increase the Egyp-tian team for EgyptSat-2 totherangeof200or240.Andthat’shappening slowlybutsurely.

Question: Is the proposal for AfricaSat coming from the Egyptian government?

No,itisactuallycomingfromindustrypeople,frompeoplelikemyselfwhoareinterestedinspace.Andwewouldliketogetgovernmentandnon-governmentor-

ganizations, researchcenters,andcom-paniestoparticipateinbuildingthis,butundertheauspicesoftheUnitedNations,soasnottolosetheinitialeffortthatwasdoneinbuildingthefirstsatellitesinall

Courtesy of Dr. Mohamed Argoun

TheAswanreceivingstationforEgyptSat.

NARSS

EgyptSatimageofCairo.

GFSC/NASA

A2004NASAimageofaduststormandLakeChad(theolivegreenarea).Egypt’sDes-ertSatwillbedesignedtospecializeinviewingdesertterrain,inparticularsearchingforundergroundwater.

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21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 41

these countries. Because, as I said, thestates need much more of a push thanwas needed at first. And collaborationcaneasetheburdenoneachcountry.

Question: And what is the level of coop-eration between the African countries in this field today?

Itdoesnotexist.

Question: Then perhaps the Internation-al Astronautical Congress, which will be held in Capetown, South Africa next year, may be an occasion to push for-ward this proposal?

We should start talking about it andgetting some support for the idea, andhopefullyitwilleventuallyhaveenoughsupport to form some active groups tostarttheplanningprocess.

The Transaqua ProjectQuestion: The LaRouche Political Ac-tion Committee, and EIR magazine,

have recently relaunched the Transaqua project, to divert water from the Congo River to revive Lake Chad as the source of water for the Sahara region, and to use this project to begin to win back much of the area that has been lost to desertification. This is part of the glob-al extension of the North American Power and Water Alliance [NAWAPA] project, being organized in the United States.

AboutcreatinganewbasisofwaterintheAfricandesert:Theproblemisevapo-ration.Theheatinthatareaisabsolutelythehighesttemperatureintheworld.Ac-tually, there isanenvironmentalmodelthatwasbuiltatCairoUniversity,anditshows that the heat, the temperature—this is thehottestspotontheplanet, intheareanearAswan.

Theratesofevaporationareveryhigh,totheextentthatyoucannotusewatersprayefficiently,becausewhileyouare

spraying,alotofthewatersimplyevapo-rates.Thesurfaceoftheparticlesinsmallballs of water atoms are flying around,andthen,thetemperatureaffectstheat-oms.Sothetemperatureeffectisveryse-rious.

Theprojectsfortransportingthewaterare still viable, but they have to be inclosedcanals,inclosedpipes,basicallyunderground. There is only a limitedamountofwaterthatarrivesinthisarea,basicallycomingfromNilesources,andalotofitislostwiththatvapor.Therefore,the investment really becomes puttingthis in closed pipes.And pipes are thewayofdoingit.Ifyoudothat,andyouputthatintodeeplakes,ratherthanshal-lowlakes,thenyoucanreducetheevap-oration.Sothisisdifferentengineeringinlookingattheproblem.Butstillitcanbedone.

Definitely,youcanbringtheseareastolifewithwater.

Schiller Institute

ThedevelopmentoftheLakeChadbasinisonepartofthehugeTransaquaproject,whichwouldbringwaterfromtheCongotoreplenishLakeChadandreversethedesertificationofthearea.LakeChadisintheupperleftofthemap,straddlingthebordersofNiger,Chad,theCentralAfricanRepublic,andNigeria.

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The Fever: How Malaria Has Ruled Humankind for 500,000 Yearsby Sonia ShahNew York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux (Sarah Crichton Books), 2010Hardcover, 307 pp., $26.00

Cloaked in presumptions ofanenlightenedunderstand-

ing of malaria, its history andevolution,SoniaShah’sThe Fe-verpresentsasubtlearrayofde-nunciations and smear tacticsagainst thetools, themethods,andeventhemotivationsofkeyindividualswhoendeavoredtocontrolmalaria,bothpast andpresent.Shahcomesacrossasajournalist who is looking forfame. She describes herself ashatingmosquitoes,butperhapsshehatespeoplemore.

The Feverisabookwrittentocharmandsootheotherpeoplelikeherself, thearmchairenvi-ronmentalistswho thinkpeopleare theproblem—and who want to eradicateDDT and other essential public healthinsecticides,noteradicatemalaria.

IncontrasttoShah,Iamanentomolo-gistwhohasworkedfor45yearstocom-bat malaria, and I state unequivocally,from my experience in the developingsector, thatDDTisanessentialpartofthearmamentariumagainstmalaria,andthatindoorresidualsprayingwithDDT

ismosteffectiveinstoppingthespreadofmalaria.Thekeyhere is theuniquespatialrepellencyofDDT:Mosquitoes,even those that are DDT-resistant, are

repelledbyDDTand,moreoften thannot,donotenterahousethathasbeensprayed.

Isaythisattheoutsetofthisreview,because it is crucial to keep in mindthat Shah’s denunciations of past andpresent programs to control or eradi-catemalaria are consistentwith thosewhoareresponsibleforallowingmalar-ia to continue to kill millions of peo-ple—insteadoferadicatingthedisease.Myintentionhereis,fortherecord,tocountersomeofthemisstatementsShahmakes to build her case that malariaisn’tallthatbad.

Precise ImprecisionThe Feverintroducesthereadertoma-

lariaparasitesandpossibleevolutionaryscenariosforspeciesthatinfecthumans.The author scrupulously avoids usingtechnicaltermsindescribingthenatural

historiesoftheparasites,the diseases they cause,and themosquitoes thattransmit the parasites.Havingsidesteppedade-fined technical vocabu-lary,Shah’swritingmustrest on thedepthofherunderstandingandinter-pretationoftheunderly-ing science. This be-comesproblematicwhenshe carelessly refers tothe unicellular parasitesas“gestating”inthemos-quito,andstatesthattheparasitescauseblood to“curdle”inveins.

Althoughthetermsare

Screenshot CSpan/bookTV

AuthorSoniaShahthinkspeople,notmalariaormosquitoes,aretheproblem.

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A Feverish Malthusian Defends Malaria As a Non-ProblembyDonaldRoberts,Ph.D.

Still River Alliance

ContrarytoShah’sbelief,theNewEnglandmosquitoesweretherebeforetheearlysettlersbuiltmillponds.Here,anoldmillpondinDanbury,Conn.

Donald R. Roberts, Ph.D., is Professor Emeritus of Tropical Public Health at the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences. He is the coauthor of The Excellent Powder: DDT’sPolitical and Scientific History (DogEar Publishing, 2010, avail-able at www.theexcellentpow-der.org). His numerous field studies and published scientific articles on DDT over the past 45 years, have shown, in particular, that DDT has a unique effect of spatial repellency: Even more important than its killing effect, DDT repels mosquitoes.

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21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 43BOOKS

notpreciselywrong, theyareneverthe-lessprecisely imprecise,andcontributelittletoacleardefinitionofwhatoccurswithparasitesinmosquitoesorwithpar-asitesinhumanblood.Butfarworsethanher failure touseprecisedescriptors indiscussions of technical details, Shahmountsanumberofdeceptiveanderro-neousarguments.

For example, in Chapter 4, Shah re-portsthataroundthetimeoftheRevolu-tionaryWar, themaineasternU.S.ma-laria mosquito caused major malariaoutbreaksinNewEngland,becausethemosquito had spread north as settlersconstructedlargenumbersofmillponds.Sheinfers thatpeoplewereresponsiblefor the outbreaks, because the settlersperturbednaturalenvironmentsinwaysthatfavorednorthwardextensionofthemosquito’s range, and she asserts thatthoseenvironmentalperturbationsledtomalariaoutbreakswherepreviouslytherehadbeennone.

Shah’sfactsarewrong.Dr.BruceHar-rison,oneoftheworld’sleadingmalariavectortaxonomistsandmosquitobiolo-gyexperts,statesinareviewofShah’sar-gumentthatShahisclearly“...wronginpresuming(stating)thatAn. quadrimacu-latuscameupfromthesouthwhenthedams were built. I think the currentknown distribution indicates that [the]specieswastherewiththenativeAmeri-cans,beforethesettlersarrivedandbe-

foremalariaarrivedinthenewworld.”Another story Shah related to further

herclaimthathumansareatfaultinpro-motingmalariatakesplaceintheAma-zonregionofBrazil.Between1970and1999,shesays,themalariacaseloadinthe Amazon region of Brazil zoomedfromaround30,000to600,000.Sheat-tributesthosehugemalariaincreasestoagriculturalandmineralextractionproj-ectspromotedby theBrazilian govern-ment. In reality,however,Shah’sexam-ple of increasing malaria in Brazilillustrateshowthemalariaburdengrowswhen national programs stop sprayingtheinsideofhouses.

Iwasresearchingmalaria,incollabora-tionwithBrazil’snationalmalariacontrolprogram,intheAmazonBasinduringthe1970s,andIhavemonitoredthecourseofitsmalariacontroleffortseversince.IcantestifythatShah’sinformationisfactuallywrong. She should have looked moreclosely at what happened with Brazil’smalariacontrolprogram,insteadofmak-ingsuperfluousclaimsabout thecontri-butionsofnewextractionprojects.

With a modest research effort, Shahwould have learned about the largemovementofpeopleandextensiveland-scape changes in the 1970s, with con-structionof theTrans-AmazonHighwayandthecolonizationprogram.Thatmas-sive alteration of landscape and largemovementofmalaria-susceptiblepeople

into thoseareasdidnot result inmajoroutbreaksofmalaria.

In fact, the mere 30,000 cases Shahcitedforthe1970sweretheresultofBra-zil’suseofDDT.SprayingDDTinhousesprevented malaria outbreaks along theTrans-AmazonHighway.Largeincreasesin malaria only started in the 1980s,when the government began to rampdown its house-spraying program incompliancewithWorldHealthOrgani-zation(WHO)guidelines.

Duringthe1980sand1990s,thenum-berofsprayedhousesinBrazildeclinedandthenumberofmalariacasesgrew.Byinferringthatmalariaiscausedbyman’simpactontheenvironment,Shahmissesthepointthatourperturbationsofnaturalor already impacted environments canhaveapositive,negative,orevennoin-fluenceonmalariatransmission.

Malaria: No Big Deal?Inachaptertitled“TheKarmaofMa-

laria,”Shahattemptstocharacterizema-lariaasanormalandnaturalpartoflifein malaria-endemic countries. She ar-guesthattheperceptionthatmalariaisagreatkillerandthatitmustbestoppedatanycost,isnotaviewsharedbythepop-ulationsatactualriskofmalaria.Peoplein endemic regions, she asserts, acceptmalariaasanormalpartoflife.Inotherwords,malariaisnobigdeal.

Shahtouchesonthisthemerepeated-ly,asrevealedinherstatementaboutaboy who has just been diagnosed withmalaria:“Theboy,thereaderisledtoun-derstand,hasjustreceivedadeathsen-tence.Infact,inendemiccountriessuchas Mozambique, people get tested formalaria not because they are worriedthat theyhave it, but in thehopes thattheydo,forthatwouldmeantheydon’thaveanythingworse.Thepositivemalar-iadiagnosistheboyreceivedwouldhavebeen,infact,asolace.”

Thisisafalseandimperiousargument.Ifthereisanyreliefwhatsoeveringettingamalariadiagnosis(andIhave),itcomesfrom knowing that the disease can betreated.Therecanbesomelevelofresig-nation at the repeated exposure to anydisease,butthisdoesnotmeanthatpeo-ple accept as desirable the burdens ofmalariaillness,thechronicanemia,theriskoflowfertility,ortheriskofdeath.

DoesShahactuallythinkpeoplewouldchoose tohaveanenlargedspleenandliver,ortobeseverelyanemic,ortohave

Eugenio Arima/Michigan State University

AsawmillnearBrazil’swesternTrans-AmazonHighway.ItwasnotgovernmentdevelopmentprojectsintheAmazonthatledtomalariaincreases,asShahclaims,butthegovernment’sphaseoutofDDThousespraying—inresponsetoWHOanti-insecticidecampaigningandguidelines.

44 Winter2010/2011 21st Century Science & Technology

a neurologically damaged child, or tolosetheirinfantstoinfectionsthatcanbeprevented?Acceptingmalaria as anor-malpartoflifedoesn’tmeanthatpeoplewouldn’topt tobe freeof it, if givenachance.

Contempt for Malaria WorkersShahtreatsthosewhostudymalariaor

worktocontrolitwithequaldisdain.SherelatesastoryaboutavisittoaresearchinstituteinPanama,duringconditionsofmalariaoutbreaks,where shedescribeshowpersonnelwerejusttalkingandre-laxing,insteadoffranticallyattendingtomalariaproblems.Shegeneralizesfromthisexperienceasfollows:“Anyonewhohas worked with health authorities inmalaria endemic countries will recog-nizethepattern.Noisesaremadeabouttheurgencyofthemalariaproblem,thetravestyofthousandsdyingfrommosqui-to bites—and then the sleepwalker re-turnstobed.”

Hermessagethatmalariaworkersarewillingtotalkaboutfightingthedisease,butaren’twillingtodomuch,isabsurd—an insidiouslymeanandunfaircharac-terization.TheinstituteinPanamaisare-searchorganizationwithstaffworkingonmanysubjects,notjustmalaria.Thegov-ernment’sNationalMalariaControlPro-gram(NMCP)wastheentityresponsibleforrespondingtotheoutbreaks,nottheresearchinstitutethatShahvisited.

AsforNMCPpeople,myexperienceistheoppositeofwhatShahsays.Ifindthatmalariacontrolworkersarediligentandhardworking.Almostwithoutexception,theyarerequiredtoabandontheirfami-liesfordaysorweeksofwork,andper-formhardandarduousdutyeventhoughtheyareunderpaid,underfunded,under-equipped, and understaffed. They de-serve respect. Shame on Shah for suchmeanandunfaircharacterizations.

AnotherexampleoffalselogicisShah’sassessment of the relationship betweenmalariaandpoverty.Sheseemstobesay-ingthatthosewhosuggestthatcontrollingmalariawillbeaneconomicboontoma-laria-endemic countries are wrong. Shestates:“...while[Jeffrey]Sachsandothershaveconductedwidelycitedstudiesonthe correlations between malaria andpoverty,nonehasbeenabletopinpointacause-and-effect relation. Does malariacausepoverty,astheysay,orconversely,ispovertyresponsibleformalaria?”

Shah continues this mindless argu-ment without ever noting that no oneproposesthatitiseitheronewayortheother.Infact,itisboth;malariaissuchahuge burden on malarious populationsthatitmostassuredlycontributestopov-erty.Likewise,povertyiscommonlyas-sociatedwiththesubstandardlivingcon-ditions—for example, no screening,wallswithcracks,ornowallsatall—that

favormalariatransmission.A reasonable perspective, which

Shah apparently does not embrace, isthat fewermalariadeathsandmalariainfectionswill greatly improvehumancapacities and promote economic ad-vancement. Likewise, to the extentthat economic advancements reachthe people, improvements in livingconditions—forexample,screeningandbetter-enclosedhouses—thiswillmostassuredlyhelpreducemalaria.

A Misinformation BarrageShahsaveshermostblisteringbarrage

of misinformation for coverage of theglobalmalariaeradicationprogramandthesprayingofDDTonhousewalls.Sheintroduces DDT with intertwining darkmessagesofchemicalwarfare,NazisandtheJews,nuclearbombs,andHiroshima.Outrageously, she insinuates that FredSoper, an experiencedDDTchampion,wasa“fascist,”presumablybecauseSop-ercarriedouthiswarsagainstdiseaseswithmilitaryprecision.

Shah reports that the Allied militarydecidedtoadvancetheuseofDDTdur-ingthewar,“despiteitsalarmingtoxicityprofile.” She never explains what shemeansbyDDT’s“alarmingtoxicitypro-file.”Today,afterdecadesofstudy,DDTisconsideredsafe forhumanexposure.Infact,therehasneverbeenadocument-eddeathorhumanillnessasaresultof

NLM/NIH

Sopermadeuseoflaboratoryanalysisinhiseradicationcampaigns.Here,micros-copistsarescreeningAnopheles larvae for Anophelesgambiaeinthe1930s.

NLM/NIH

Fred Soper (1893-1977) was anAmericanepidemiologistwhopioneeredmethodsofdisease eradication for malaria, yellow fe-ver, and hookworm, in particular. DuringWorldWarII,heworkedwiththeSecretaryofWar in programs to control typhus andmalaria.After thewar,hedirectedthePanAmericanHealthOrganization.

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exposuretoDDTintheenvironment.Shahpreparesthereaderforheranti-

DDTonslaughtbytheold,butignorantlyfalse argument that DDT had no roleeliminating endemic malaria from theUnitedStates.Shestatesauthoritatively,“Bythetime...theUnitedStatescreatedthe Malaria Control in War Areas pro-gramin1942(whichwouldlaterbecomethe Centers for Disease Control), theweaknesses of their antimalarial meth-odsdidn’tmatteranymore.Malariahadalreadynearlyvanished.”

The facts are otherwise. By the early1940s,theabilityoftheUnitedStatestoexert effective control over malaria wasstilllimited,inspiteofgrowingwealthandimprovingstandardsofliving.Asrevealedingovernmentdocumentsofthatera,con-trol was possible only in urban settingswhere draining and eliminating aquatichabitatsformosquitoes,andusinglarvi-cidetokillmosquitolarvae,wascost-ef-fective.Incontrast,theonlyrealprogressinpoorruralareaswastoscreenhousestopreventmosquitoesfromenteringand

transmitting disease. Unfortunately,screening required rural people tospendmoneytheydidn’thave.

The office of Malaria Control inWarAreas (MCWA)wascreated in1942 shortly after the bombing ofPearlHarbor.Intime,sprayinghous-es with DDT became establishedwithin the program, and DDT wasdemonstrably the most effectivemethod of stopping malaria trans-mission in andaround themilitaryinstallations.Beginningin1945,theMCWAextendeditscoveragetoallmalariouscivilianareas.FromJanu-ary 1945 to September 1947, 3.2million houses were sprayed withDDT,andmillionsmoreafterthat.

ButShahclaims that theMCWAprogramwasweakandcontributednothing to malaria elimination—aclaim seemingly based on her as-sumption that malaria was not aproblem by the time of this broadspraycoverage.Beforemaking thisassumption, she should have pe-rusedsomeoriginal sourcesofhis-torical data. In 1945, for example,Arkansas reported 1,182 malariacases.AfterDDTsprayingofhousesthatyear,malariacasesdroppedto849casesin1946.

Arkansas is one of several stateswith deeply entrenched rural malariaproblems in the 1940s, which was at-tacked with spray coverage. The pesti-cidesprayingprovidedotherhealthben-efitstoo.Missouri,forexample,sprayed85,000homesin1945,andby1946,thenumber of cases of fly-borne diseasesdroppedby66percent.

Eradication BiasShahremainshighlybiasedagainstthe

global eradication program throughouther review of the program’s achieve-ments.Shementionstheoldsawoftheprogram eradicating malariologists, notmalaria.SheclaimsthataDDT-sprayedhousesmelledlikechlorine—actuallyitdoesn’t. Shah falsely asserts that DDTkilledchickens,cats,andsoon.

Having worked for decades in manysettingsinvariouscountriesoftheAmer-icas,wherehousesweresprayedorwerebeing sprayed with DDT, I have neverheardmentionofDDTbeingaproblemfordomesticanimals.Perhapstherewereunusualfoodchainsandeventsinotherareasoftheworldthatledtosuchevents,

buttheywerenotanormaloutcome.Shah is correct that the agricultural

usesofDDTledtoproblemsofDDTre-sistance,althoughherdescriptionisnotcorrect.Shedescribesmosquitoesalight-ingonDDT-dustedvegetationandcon-cludes that what didn’t kill them, onlymade them stronger. Of course, resis-tance only improved chances of theirsurvivalinthepresenceofDDT,soitdidnotmakethemosquitoesstrongeratall.Infact,resistancecouldactuallyreducemosquitofitness for survivalaway fromDDT-sprayedvegetation.

Shah describes DDT resistance as ahugeandgrowingproblemforsuccessoftheglobalanti-malariaprogram,aviewpromoted by the anti-pesticide faction.Apparently,shedoesnotknowthat thelast malaria program review in 1969,foundthatonlyabout1or2percentofmalaria-endemic regions exhibited in-secticide or drug resistance, or othertechnicalproblems.

With this misanalysis of resistance,ShahthenstatesthattheproblemofDDTresistancecausedcountriestobeginus-ingalternativemethodsofcontrol,suchasmassdrugadministration(MDA).SheillustratesthisbydescribingBrazil’suseofchloroquinizedsaltintheAmazonBa-sin.Apparently,ShahdoesnotknowthatAnopheles darlingi is themajormalariavector there, and that after decades ofDDT use, the Brazilian populations ofAnopheles darlingiarenotnow,andneverhavebeen,resistanttoDDT.Actually,Bra-zil’sexperimentwithchloroquinizedsalthadnothingatalltodowithDDTresis-tance.Shahrightlyinformsthereader,how-ever,thatdrugresistancewassometimesthedominantresultofMDAprograms.

DDT DemonizationAfterherwide-rangingwarm-uptothe

supposed failings of DDT and malariaeradication, Shah begins demonizingDDT, with the same erroneous claimsusedinthe1960s.ShahrepeatstheDDT-robinstoryasdescribedbyRachelCar-soninherbookSilent Spring.MorethananyotherpartofThe Fever,thisstoryre-vealsthatShahdoesnotknowwhatsheistalkingabout,oriswillfullylying.TheclaimofDDTendangeringtherobinwasdisproved decades ago. In fact, ShahoverstatesCarson’sstorybyclaimingthatrobinswereeliminatedcompletelyfromthe Michigan State University campus.Not even Carson made such an outra-

NLM/NIH

DustingciviliansandAlliedtroopswithDDTsavedmillionsoflivesfromthescourgeofty-phusduringandafterWorldWarII.Here,typhuspreventioninItalyduringthewar.

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geousclaim,norhaveothers.Yet,Shahpresentsitasgospeltruth.

Insequence,Shahquicklyannouncestheendoftheglobalmalariaeradicationprogramandtheresultantresurgenceofmalaria in countries around the world.She ties all this to the ending of fundsfromtheUnitedStates,whichshereportsas occurring when the five-year appro-priation for the global eradication pro-gramended,in1965.Theendofthatap-propriation, Shah says, was just theexcusetheendemiccountriesneededforabandoningtheirmalariaprograms.

Again,Shah’sconclusioniswrong.TheinternalreportsoftheWorldHealthOr-ganization throughout the 1970s docu-menthowcountriesstruggledtocontinuetheirmalariaprogramsinspiteofdeclin-inginternationalsupport,andinspiteofenvironmental activist pressures againstDDT use. Surprisingly, many countriessucceededincontinuingtheirprograms.

Even Shah’s assessment that programfunding ended in 1965 is wrong. TheU.S.Agency for International Develop-ment(AID)andthePublicHealthServiceactually continued funding nationaleradication programs at incrementallylowerlevelsintotheearly1970s.

In her closing comments about the

global program, Shah makes sweepingdenunciations.Shestatesthattheglobalprogramhadmademalariamoreviciousand harder to control than before, andthatchloroquineandDDThadbeenren-dered toothless. Without doubt, wheredrugresistanceevolvedthecontrolpro-gramshadtoswitchtoalternativedrugs.However,inthecaseofDDT,itsprimarymodeofactionisasaspatial repellent,notasakillingagent.Hence,resistancesignalledonlyafailureofDDTtoxicity,soDDTcouldstillexertcontroloverma-

lariathroughitsspatialrepellentaction.Lastbutnotleast,thereisnoevidence

that the malaria parasite became morevicious as a consequence of becomingresistant to chloroquine. Shah’s state-ment that chloroquine and DDT hadbeenrenderedtoothlessbytheendoftheprogram is nonsense, as the 1969 pro-gramreviewmakesclear.

Overall, Shah criticizes malaria con-trolmethods(drugs,insecticides,andin-secticide-treated mosquito nets), bothpastandpresent,ashighlyflawed.Shecriticizesorganizationsthatworktocon-trolmalariaasineffectual.Sheattemptstounderminecredibilityofmalariacon-trol proponents by suggesting ulteriormotivesfortheiradvocacy.Shequestionsthe value of the achievements of theglobalmalariaeradicationprogram,andproposes that programs that continuesprayinghousesareawaste.

Theauthormakesnoconstructivesug-gestionsaboutwhatshethinksshouldbedoneasalternativemethodologiesforma-lariacontrol.Additionally,sheneverevenmentions that largeandextremelywell-funded environmental and anti-insecti-cidecampaignsweretheprimaryforceinstoppingmalariacontrolprograms.

IndefensibleIn conclusion, Shah’s criticisms of

DDTandmalariaeradicationareerrone-ousandindefensible.Toquestiontheval-ueoftheglobalmalariaeradicationpro-gram,onemusttrivializethehundredsofmillionsofinfectionsthatwereprevent-ed, the elimination of malaria threatsfrom large geographical areas, the pre-ventionofmillionsofprematuredeaths,andthegreatreductionsinmaternaland

infantmortalities.AsShahherselfstates,lifeexpec-

tancy inSriLanka increased from43 to 57 years as a result of theglobalmalariaprogram.Justimag-ine: across Sri Lanka’s populationof15million,thiswouldequatetoan increaseof210,000,000yearsofhumanlife.Thisexampleis forjustonesmallcountry.Evengreaterchanges in life expectancy oc-curred inothercountries,allasaresultofsprayingDDT.

Howcananyreasonablepersonseriously question the value of aprogramthatcanproducesuchre-sults in just 10 years at a cost ofonly$1billion?

U.S. Army

TheofficeofMalariaControlinWarAreassprayedmillionsofU.S.houseswithDDTtostopthespreadofmalaria,contrarytoShah’sclaimthatmalariahad“nearlyvan-ished”bythe1940s.Here,MCWAtrainingamalariacontrolunitinswampdraininginLouisiana.

lxtia/Creative Commons

AmalariacontrolsigninZambia.Shahques-tions the value of malaria eradication cam-paignsandpesticidespraying.Inherview,ma-laria isn’t a problem, and the natives aren’tworriedaboutit.

BOOKS

21st Century Science & Technology Winter2010/2011 47

Talking About Life: Conversations on Astrobiologyby Chris ImpeyNew York: Cambridge University Press, 2010Hardcover, 418 pp., $29.99

Underbetterculturalcircumstances,conversations on astrobiology

wouldinspirereflectionsonthebeautyandpoweroflifeasanegentropicorder-ingprincipleintheuniverseasawhole,as questions concerning the relation-shipofdiscreteorganismstolargerplan-etary and cosmic conditions touch onthe most fundamental aspects of whatVladimirVernadskycalledtheharmoni-ous cosmicmechanism responsible forlife.

Alas, science today is dominated bydogmaticlawsofuniversalentropyandstatistical probability, and a pervasivepessimism respecting man’s role in theuniverse.So, inaddition toprovidingabroad surveyof contemporary researchinthisimportantfield,ChrisImpey’sTalk-ing About Life: Conversations on Astrobi-ologyatthesametimeprovidesaclinicalview of the epistemological poverty ofmainstreamsciencetoday.

(Considerthisgemfrompsychobiolo-gist LoriMarino, on the comparisonofhumanbeingstootherintelligentlifeonEarth: “I don’t think we’re qualitativelydifferent. Though we build 747s andchimpanzeesmake termitesticks, theseactivities may not be so different on aqualitativelevel.”Really.)

But, given the organization of thebook—aseriesoftranscribedoralinter-viewsconductedbyImpeywithresearch-ersandwritersconnectedtoastrobiolo-gy—italmostcan’tfailtobeaninterestingread,asinformalshop-talkbyscientiststends tobe.Not surprisingly, thebetterselectionscome frompeopledoingac-tualexperimentalresearchorfieldwork:peoplelikeself-describedpaleo-bio-geo-chemo-tectono-strato-sedimentologist

RogerBuick,whogivesanabsorbingac-count of searching for signs of ancientlife in ancient rocks; orCarolynPorco,imaging team leader for the Cassiniprobe,whodescribesthethrilloftryingtountangleSaturn’scomplexringstruc-ture, and the almost maternal commit-ment required to oversee planetary ro-boticsmissions.

The Right QuestionsAsidefromanobviousneedformore

funding,astrobiologyperhapsismostinneed of the right questions, questionswhichgobeyond thepainfullynarrowinterpretationoflifeasafortuitousinter-playofchemicalconstituents.Asanex-ample,theclearlyestablishedinfluenceoflowfrequency,low-intensityelectro-magnetic fields on the internal regula-tion of living organisms is one area inneedof a systematic researchprograminthefield,especiallygiventheperva-sive action of interplanetary electro-magneticfieldsevidentinourownSolarSystem.

Ultimately,itwillbebreakthroughsonpolicy, and the adoption of what KrafftEhrickecalledhumanity’s“Extraterrestri-alImperative,”thatwilldrivesuchques-tions.Indeed,evenmoreinterestingthanthequestionofwhereelseinthecosmoswecanfindsignsoflife,is:Whatdoweneedtoknowtobringitthere?

Looking at Man’s Role In the UniverseOyangTeng

BOOKS