Science Panel Calls Global Warming ‘Unequivocal’

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Climate Change Data

• The new report says the global climate is likely to warm 3.5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit if carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere reach twice the levels of 1750, before the Industrial Revolution

• Should greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere at even a moderate pace, average temperatures by the end of the century could match those last seen 125,000 years ago, in the previous warm spell between ice ages, the report said.

Impacts on Poor Nations

Precautionary Principle

EC Commission communiqué on the Precautionary Principle

■Proportionality "Measures...must not be disproportionate to the desired level of protection and must not aim at zero risk"

■ Nondiscrimination "Comparable situations should not be treated differently and... different situations should not be treated in the same way, unless there are objective grounds for doing so."

■ Consistency "Measures...should be comparable in nature and scope with measures already taken in equivalent areas in which all the scientific data are available."

■ Examination of the benefits and costs of action or lack of action "This examination should include an economic cost/benefit analysis when this is appropriate and feasible. However, other analysis methods...may also be relevant"

■ Examination of scientific developments "The measures must be of a provisional nature pending the availability of more reliable scientific data"... "Scientific research shall be continued with a view to obtaining more complete data."

US Role

• The United States, with about 5 percent of the world’s population, contributes about a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions, more than any other country.

• Americans consume 2x pc Energy than Japan and Germany

• There is "a significant shift in public attitudes toward the environment and global warming [with] fully 83 percent of Americans now saying global warming is a 'serious' problem, up from 70 percent in 2004," reports the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy.

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 - 2004

  

Climate and Security:Two Facets of Energy

Prof. Bill Moomaw

Tufts University

Presentation at Colby College

March 12, 2007

Next several slides from

Implications

• Lower emission scenario, 3.5-6.5o F rise, moves Waterville. ME climatically to Newark, NJ

• Higher emission scenario, 6.5-12.5o F rise, moves Waterville climatically to Raleigh, NC

• A doubling of carbon dioxide will bring us to the lower of these two scenarios, and yet will dramatically change our environment, energy demand, disease patterns and lifestyles.

What are implications for forests?

• Existing trees in our Maple-beech-birch forests will cease to reproduce, and will eventually die out

• Over a century or more , they will be replaced by the oak-hickory forest of the mid-Atlantic states

• Invasives such as kudzu will establish themselves

• Weakened trees will be susceptible to insects and disease

Moomaw

CO2 by Region

Top 20 CO2 Producers

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Gigatonnes

Indonesia Saudi Arabia Spain Ukraine Iran Brazil Australia Mexico

S. Africa France S. Korea Italy United Kingdom Canada Northeast US Germany

India Japan Russia China United States

RussiaChina

Northeast US

Japan

United States

IndiaGermany

Canada

What is Needed to reduce by 75%?

• Sustained reductions of 3%/year by industrial nations for the rest of the century

• This will reduce emissions by half in 23 years and to one-quarter in 46 years

• This will assure that CO2 concentrations are below 1990 levels and dropping at the end of the century rather than continuing to rise

• Otherwise, there is a high probability that global average temperature will rise by more than 4o F during this century and might go as high as 12o F

What is a 3% Annual Reduction for Transportation?

• Driving 30 miles less per month for one year, or by adjusting driving style to improve by 3%.

• Keep this up until you can afford a more efficient vehicle– A vehicle that is 30% more efficient will be equivalent

to reducing your emissions by 3% per year over the life of the vehicle

– Replacing a fleet average vehicle with a hybrid Prius or Honda is equivalent to a 3% per year reduction over the lifetime of your next two vehicles.

Some observations about vehicles

• US fuel economy has slipped for the past 10 years

• Starting in 2007, China’s standards will exceed US standards and will rise in the coming decade.

• Toyota has the most efficient vehicles in most size classes

• Toyota has passed Ford globally and in the US (for 2 months) as the second largest seller of vehicles

What is a 3% Reduction for Electric Power?

• 3% is replacing one 60 watt light bulb with a CFL each month for one year on your electricity emissions

• Replace and remove 1.5% of existing coal plants each year with zero emission technology and this reduces power plant emissions by 3% per year– Note this is the anticipated retirement rate of 50 year o;d

plants in the US

• It is possible, by purchasing 100% of zero emission electricity from your utility, to reduce these emissions to zero, and create a market for renewable and other low emission technologies

What is 3% Reduction in Buildings?

• Night time set back of a thermostat by 10 degrees achieves a 3% reduction in emissions

• For appliances, 3% is eliminating a dorm fridge or replacing a pre-1993 regular fridge with a new Energy Star model over its lifetime

• Improving the insulation and tightness of an existing building to reduce energy use by 30% is equivalent to 3% per year for a dozen years

Replacement strategy

• Replace every emitting technology at the end of its life with a more efficient, lower emitting one

• For lights and electronics, this is 1-3 years• For appliances and vehicles, this is about every

12-15 years• For power stations and industrial facilities, this is

about every 40-50 years• For buildings, there are major renovations every

20 years and replacement every 75-100 years.

Policies to Achieve Strategy

• None

• Regulation

• Government Investment

• MBI– Cap and trade bubble

• Tietenberg, T. H. (1985). Emissions Trading: An Exercise in Reforming Pollution Policy. Washington, DC, Resources for the Future.

• Tietenberg, T. H. (1986). Uncommon Sense: The Program to Reform Pollution Control Policy. Regulatory Reform: What Actually Happened. L. W. Weiss and M. W. Klass. Boston, Little Brown and Company: 269-303.

• Tietenberg, T. H. (1989). Marketable Permits in the U.S.: A Decade of Experience. Public Finance and the Performance of Enterprises. K. W. Roskamp. Detroit, MI, Wayne State University Press: 261-277.

• Tietenberg, T. H. (1990). "Economic Instruments for Environmental Regulation." Oxford Review of Economic Policy 6(1): 17-33.

• Tietenberg, T. H. (1992). Relevant Experience with Tradable Permits. Combating Global Warming: Study on a Global System of Tradable Carbon Emission Entitlements. U. N. C. o. T. a. Development. New York, United Nations: 37-54.

• Tietenberg, T. H. (1998). "Ethical Influences on the Evolution of the US Tradable Permit Approach to Pollution Control." Ecological Economics 24(2-3): 241-257.

Professor Tietenberg’s Early Research

Attention Shoppers: Carbon Offsets in Aisle 6

Angela Jimenez for The New York TimesCASH AND CARRY At Ikea, its 99-cent blue reusable bags will soon be 59 cents. But the free plastic bags they pack your goods in will be a nickel; the money will go to planting trees.