Science of Forecasting Waves GNM 1136. Challenge – Think-Pair-Share What controls the weather on...
If you can't read please download the document
Science of Forecasting Waves GNM 1136. Challenge – Think-Pair-Share What controls the weather on Earth? What type of climate is NJ? What are the prevailing
Challenge Think-Pair-Share What controls the weather on Earth?
What type of climate is NJ? What are the prevailing winds in our
latitude?
Slide 3
Ch.1 The Paradox of Impossible Knowledge How accurate is a surf
forecast or prediction? Each of our reports are different. i.e.
Team Delusional While most surfers are scientists, few scientists
are surfers. Increasing your knowledge will increase your wave
count!
Slide 4
The Beginning Where does the energy to build waves ultimately
come from? How are we (human race) altering this energy? You need
to understand climatology first! What factors will affect the surf?
Quote from page 14
Slide 5
Ch.2 Large-Scale Weather Patterns
Slide 6
Amphidromic Points
Slide 7
The highest tidal range in the world occurs in the Bay of
Fundy, Nova Scotia, Canada. Tidal range = 15 m / 50 feet The
highest tidal range in the world occurs in the Bay of Fundy, Nova
Scotia, Canada. Tidal range = 15 m / 50 feet
Slide 8
The Global Circulation
Slide 9
Global Circulation Statistical highs and statistical lows
uneven heating of the Earths surface What happens to the atmosphere
after the Earths surface has been heated up initially by the suns
rays?
Slide 10
Earth A landless, stationary Earth would have lots of
convection currents (fig 2.1) A landless, rotating Earth would have
lots of spiraling wind bands(fig 2.2) A landless, rotating Earth
with seasons would have lots of change due to varying temperatures
(fig 2.3) Obliquity of the ecliptic = tilt of the Earth 23.5
degrees = seasons A rotating Earth with land, sea and seasons
Heating differentials Specific Heat Capacity Variations in land vs.
water temps in summer & winter
Slide 11
Earth continued Which hemisphere has more land mass? Southern
Hemi has Roaring Forties (fig 2.4) January vs. July When would you
plan a surf trip to Indonesia?
Slide 12
Earths Seasons (Fig 2.3)
Slide 13
Coriolis Force Discovered by French physicist Gustave Gaspard
Coriolis in the early 19 th century. This phenomenon dominates the
entire physical oceanographic world. Forms the rotation of high and
low pressures Which direction does Coriolis effect push particles
in the Northern Hemi? Sothern Hemi?
Slide 14
Challenge 1. What causes the swirling pattern of a low pressure
system? 2. Which direction does a low pressure spin in the Northern
Hemisphere? Formation of a Low Pressure (Fig. 2.7)
Slide 15
High Pressure Systems (Anticyclones) Areas of sinking air which
result in high pressure are called anticyclones. The changes in
pressure are much smaller than those associated with low pressure.
High pressure systems cover huge areas, the rate at which changes
occur is slower and the weather patterns usually more stable. The
weather conditions depend on the time of year In Summer Hot days
with few or no clouds but there can be mist in the mornings. Light
winds. Warm moist air rising from the ground may result in
thunderstorms. Some cloud covercan form over Eastern England. This
is caused by light winds blowing over the cooler North Sea. In
Winter Cloudless skies but the low angle of the sun produces less
heat days arecold and the nights even colder due to lack of cloud
cover. Fog and frost often form at night. Cold air from Russia can
bring snow to the east of the country. High Pressure (Fig.
2.8)
Slide 16
In an effort to equalize the pressure, air tries to flow
directly from a high pressure to a low pressure, but the Coriolis
force causes it to turn to the right. As a result, the air
circulates clockwise (anticyclonic) around a high pressure and
anticlock 2009 - Dr. Tony Butt
Slide 17
Coriolis Effect Coriolis Force Video Clip
Slide 18
Slide 19
Centrifugal Force Univ. of Virginia Site Univ. of Virginia
Site
Slide 20
Ch.3 The Formation of a Depression NASA GRIP Hurricanes 101
Hurricanes Hurricane Irene
Slide 21
Slide 22
Slide 23
Slide 24
Slide 25
Slide 26
Low Pressure Formation (fig 3.3) Fronts rotate around a Low
pressure system in an anti-clockwise direction. Both are associated
with a change in temperature, cloud, a lot of rain and a shift in
wind direction. The diagrams below show the formation of an
occluded front. When a depression or a low pressure system forms,
it usually consists of a warm front and a faster moving cold front.
This can be seen in diagram 1. To the north of the warm front is
the cool air that was in the area before the depression developed.
As the depression intensifies, the cold front catches the warm
front. This can be seen in diagram 2. The line where the two fronts
meet is called an occluded front. When an Occluded Front passed
overhead, you would feel changes in temperature and wind speed Fig.
3.1-3.3
Slide 27
Isobars
Slide 28
Explosive Cyclogenesis (Fig. 3.4-3.6) What is cyclogenesis?
Basically, the term cyclogenesis means the creation of cyclones (or
depressions, as we better know them). This is in the same way that
frontogensis is used to describe the creation of weather fronts.
All Atlantic depressions have some form of cyclogenesis, ranging
from wave depressions, to the modifications of ex- hurricanes. In
the interests of this discussion, Im going to concentrate on those
depressions which develop from frontal waves, as I reckon theyre
the ones which are the most captivating. What is explosive
cyclogenesis? This is basically the same as normal cyclogenesis,
but it happens very rapidly, and very vigorously. That is, a
depression can seemingly form from nothing in a very short space of
time, often becoming a very vicious storm in a matter of hours. The
general term used for these rapidly deepening depressions, is a
bomb. The strict definitions of this, is a low pressure centre
which deepens by 24mb in 24hrs, or less. These happen frequently
throughout the Atlantic, and several times a year, we see this
happening pretty close to the UK. Its only in recent years that
such things have been better understood, and indeed, before the
1987 storm across southern England, meteorological models hardly
had the signature of explosive cyclogenesis incorporated within
them.
Slide 29
Jet Stream Influence Above 5,000m (6-9 miles) very strong winds
Influences the path and speed of storms Dr. Jeff Masters Blog on
Hurricane Sandy
Slide 30
Slide 31
Box 1 The geostrophic equation Windspeed = 1/Coriolis *
Pressure Gradient Since coriolis forse increases with disctance
from ecuator, for the same pressure gradient, windspeeds will be
greater near the equator. Therefore, the same low will have
stronger winds at lower latitudes.
Slide 32
Ch.4 The Growth of Waves On the Ocean
Slide 33
Challenge Think-Pair-Share What creates waves? Who benefits
from wave models?
Slide 34
The Miles-Phillips Theory J.W. Miles and O.M. Phillips were
legendary oceanographers that helped shed light on wave formation
in 1957. Two parts waves created on a flat sea then build on each
other.
Slide 35
Wave Anatomy
Slide 36
Wave Formation Linear growth, Exponential growth,
saturation
Slide 37
Capillary Waves Tiny bumps form on a completely flat sea from
wind blowing on or over the surface. Hairdryer on the water (fig
4.1)
Slide 38
Exponential Growth Turbulent Eddies follow wave and help them
grow (fig 4.2) As Capillary waves get larger there is more friction
for the wind to grab the water and make them bigger. No longer
capillary waves, they are gravity waves because GRAVITY is the
restoring force. Restoring force for capillary waves = surface
tension.
Slide 39
Slide 40
Limiting Factors Struggle between wave height and gravity
limits overall size (height). White-capping (white horses) steals
energy Duration-limited sea = the wind stops (storms fades) before
waves reach max size. Smaller water bodies experience fetch-limited
seas. If water body is large enough and winds are strong enough
then a FAS (fully arisen sea) occurs = Saturation (fig 4.3).
Slide 41
Models Oceanographer Walter Munk help develop first
mathematical models during WW2 (1940). Empirical Models = relating
wind strength, fetch & duration, directly to wave height After
Miles and Phillip developed ideas in 1957, the radiative transfer
equation (active balance equation) was created to determine how big
waves would be factoring in energy loss and gain = 1G wave models.
1973 Joint North Sea Wave Experiment (JONSWAP) waves grow similar
in different conditions (2G model). WAM Model was created in 1988
which revolutionized swell modeling and predictions 3G Model). Fig.
4.4 shows a WAM Model called Wavewatch III from the Fleet Numerical
& Oceanographic Center (FNMOC).
Slide 42
WAM Model
Slide 43
Slide 44
Ch.5 Propagation of Free-Travelling Swell (Fig 5.1 & 5.2)
Waves propagate from the storm center There are several factors
that determine the size and duration of the swell: When waves
travel they can experience: Circumferential Dispersion get smaller
& spread out. Radial Dispersion Some speed up faster than
others. Grouping form into sets of waves.
Slide 45
Slide 46
Movement of Wave Energy *Watch the water droplet move in a
vertical circle as the wave passes. The droplet moves forward with
the wave's crest and backward with the trough.*
Slide 47
Swell Energy (Fig 5.3) Swell travels in deep water differently
than shallow water.
Slide 48
Slide 49
Wave base is the depth to which a surface wave can move water.
If the water is deeper than wave base: orbits are circular no
interaction between the bottom and the wave. If the water is
shallower than wave base orbits are elliptical orbits become
increasingly flattened towards the bottom. 7-2 Wave Motions
Slide 50
Deep- and Shallow-Water Motion
Slide 51
There are three types of waves defined by water depth
Deep-water wave (d>or=1/2 of L) Intermediate-water wave
(d>1/20 and
Slide 52
The shallower the water, the greater the interaction between
the wave and the bottom alters the wave properties, eventually
causing the wave to collapse. Wave speed decreases as depth
decreases. Wavelength decreases as depth decreases. Wave height
increases as depth decreases. Troughs become flattened and the wave
profile becomes extremely asymmetrical. Period remains unchanged.
Period is a fundamental property of a wave. Celerity equation of
shallow water wave. 7-3 Life History of Ocean Waves
Slide 53
The Strange Characteristics of Swell Stokes Drift - The slight
forward displacement of water because the top of the wave moves
faster than the bottom (fig. 5.4) Group Speed Carries a message
from one point to another. Each individual wave in the group
travels at twice the speed of the group = phase speed Waves move
from the back to the front and disappear (fig. 5.5)
Slide 54
Dispersion Circumferential Dispersion Waves get smaller as they
spread out from storm center. Fetch and storm size plays a very
larger role Storms are not point sources i.e. If a storm sits just
south of Iceland in N.Atlantic swell will reach Ireland (1,000km)
at 5m (15ft.) and become breaking waves giving up their energy to
the reefs and beaches. Lots of swell will pass Ireland and head
2,000km away towards Spain, with a wave height 30% less (3.5m).
Other waves reach the Canary Islands (another 2,000km away) and
lose more size (30%) to 2.3m. (fig.5.6 & 5.7) Note that the
Pacific storms may have considerable differences in swell decay.
Why? http://magicseaweed.com/North-Atlantic-Winter-Exposed-
Content/2343/
http://magicseaweed.com/North-Atlantic-Winter-Exposed-
Content/2343/
Slide 55
Dispersion Radial Dispersion waves speed is controlled by
wavelength. i.e. longer wavelength = faster (tsunami) Waves all
start from one point (storm center) and the faster waves move to
the front = Radial Dispersion North Atlantic example - waves will
appear confused closer to the storm center and settle out the
further away they get (fig. 5.8)
Slide 56
Slide 57
Slide 58
Grouping Eventually the waves organize into sets = grouping Why
do surfers want to know how many waves in a set? How far apart are
the sets = settiness?
http://www.surfline.com/community/whoknows/who knows.cfm?id=1120
http://www.surfline.com/community/whoknows/who
knows.cfm?id=1120
Slide 59
Slide 60
Interference When wave trains interfere with each other two
things can happen Constructive or Destructive Interference (fig
5.10) Constructive Intereference = bigger peaks Destructive
Interference = no peaks Overall, the mechanism of wave trains/sets
is still somewhat of a mystery. It is hard to tell exactly what is
happening in every part of the storm at all times.
Slide 61
Wave interference is the momentary interaction between waves as
they pass through each other. Wave interference can be constructive
or destructive.
Slide 62
7-3 Life History of Ocean Waves A Rogue wave occurs when there
is a momentary appearance of an unusually large wave formed by
constructive interference of many smaller waves.