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Science of Climate ChangeScience of Climate ChangePresent Status and Future Climate Change Scenarios for IndiaPresent Status and Future Climate Change Scenarios for India

K. Krishna KumarK. Krishna Kumar((krishna@tropmet.res.inkrishna@tropmet.res.in))

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, PuneIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

Presentation made at ‘Climate Change India 2008’ 22 April, 2008 at WISE, PUNE

Climate VariabilityClimate Variability

vsvs

Climate ChangeClimate Change

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Climate Change/variationsClimate Change/variations

��Solar Forcing Solar Forcing

��Orbital Forcing Orbital Forcing

��Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing

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Orientation of the tilt-

Precession

12, 000 year cycle

Eccentricity—the shape of

Earth's orbit around the sun

– 95, 000 year cycle

Obliquity—the angle between

Earth's axis and a line

perpendicular to the orbital

plane - 42,000 year cycle

Geometry of the sun-earth Orbital System

5/27/20085/27/2008 Source: “Climate Change, State of Knowledge,” OSTP, 1997

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Increase in Global CO2 Conc.Increase in Global CO2 Conc.

Highest in the past 650,000 years

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IPCC AR4 WGIPCC AR4 WG--1 summary1 summary

IPCC AR4 WGIPCC AR4 WG--1 summary1 summary

Climate model simulations support Anthropogenic Climate model simulations support Anthropogenic forcing for recent changes forcing for recent changes

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Observed Changes in the Observed Changes in the

Indian Monsoon ClimateIndian Monsoon Climate

MeanMean

MonsoonMonsoon

RainfallRainfall

Variability of MonsoonRainfall

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

23

23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

Variation of All-India mean annual temperature during 1875-2004

Linear trend = 0.03C/10yr *(1875-2004) 0.22C/10yr **(1971-2004)

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26.5

27

27.5

28

28.5

Sea Surface Temperature Variations in the Indian Ocean

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200027.5

28

28.5

29

29.5

Arabian Sea

Bay of Bengal

Sea

Surf

ace

Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

Trends in Sea Surface TempsTrends in Sea Surface Temps

AllAll--India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871--2004)2004)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

fjdsfdfjkdkjfdjfjdkfdjkfjk

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Goswami et al., Science, Dec., 2006

Changes in the Frequency Distribution of Extremes Changes in the Frequency Distribution of Extremes

during 1951during 1951--1970 and 19801970 and 1980--20002000

Time series of count over CI

Low & Moderate events

Heavy events (>10cm)

V. Heavy events (>15cm)

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Expected Future Changes Under Expected Future Changes Under

Increased GHG ConditionsIncreased GHG Conditions

Predicting climate changePredicting climate change

CONCENTRATIONSCO2, methane, etc.

HEATING EFFECT‘Climate Forcing’.

IMPACTSFlooding, food supply, etc.

Scenarios frompopulation, energy,economics models

Carbon cycle andchemistry models

Gas properties

Coupled climatemodels

Impacts models

CLIMATE CHANGETemp, rain, sea-level, etc.

EMISSIONS

feedbacks

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IPCC SRES emission scenariosIPCC SRES emission scenarios

A1FIA1FI

A2A2

B2B2

B1B1

CO eq. Emissions by Country

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Australia

Canada

China

European Union

India

Japan

Russian Federation

Singapore

South Africa

United Kingdom

US

CO 2 eq. Mt

Source: India’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change, 2004

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Percapita Emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Australia

Canada

China

European Union

India

Japan

Russian Federation

Singapore

South Africa

United Kingdom

US

CO2 eq. per person

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IPCC AR4 Climate Change Scenarios using IPCC AR4 Climate Change Scenarios using

Global Coupled OceanGlobal Coupled Ocean--Atmospheric ModelsAtmospheric Models

IPCC AR4 SimulationsIPCC AR4 Simulations

�� Historical run: 20th Century simulationHistorical run: 20th Century simulation�� Future climate simulations (initial conditions from end of the 2Future climate simulations (initial conditions from end of the 20th 0th

Century simulation):Century simulation):

�� ““Committed Climate ChangeCommitted Climate Change””: hold concentrations at year 2000 : hold concentrations at year 2000 �� SRES A2 to 2100SRES A2 to 2100�� SRES A1B to 2100 then fix concentrations (~720 SRES A1B to 2100 then fix concentrations (~720 ppmppm) for an ) for an

additional century (with one realization extended to 2300)additional century (with one realization extended to 2300)�� As above but with SRES B1 (~550 As above but with SRES B1 (~550 ppmppm))

�� Idealized experiments:Idealized experiments:

�� 1%/yr CO1%/yr CO22 run for 70 years (time of doubling), then an additional run for 70 years (time of doubling), then an additional 150 years with doubled CO150 years with doubled CO22

�� 1%/yr CO2 run for 140 years (time of quadrupling), then an 1%/yr CO2 run for 140 years (time of quadrupling), then an additional 150 years with quadrupled COadditional 150 years with quadrupled CO22

�� 2 x CO2 x CO22 step increase and then run to equilibrium (atmosphere/slabstep increase and then run to equilibrium (atmosphere/slab--ocean model)ocean model)

� The model simulation data of the above runs are available through IPCC-DDC/ PCMDI, USA and has already exceeded 30TB and is expected reach 40TB soon

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Observed and IPCCObserved and IPCC--AR4 Ensemble mean Monsoon Rainfall AR4 Ensemble mean Monsoon Rainfall

and Annual Surface Temperatureand Annual Surface Temperature

Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature

over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenariosover India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios

Krishna Kumar et al, PNAS, 2008 (under review)Krishna Kumar et al, PNAS, 2008 (under review)

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HighHigh--Resolution Regional Resolution Regional

Climate Change ScenariosClimate Change Scenarios

A Current Regional Modeling set up at IITMA Current Regional Modeling set up at IITM

GCMs to GCMs to

Regional Regional

Adaptive Adaptive

Responses : Responses :

Modelling PathModelling Path

Cs = Cs = f(Clf(Cl, , ØØss ))

Cs Cs -- small scale climatesmall scale climate

ClCl -- large scale climatelarge scale climate

ØØss -- physiographic physiographic

details at small details at small

scale scale

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Model OrographyModel OrographyHadCM3HadCM3 PRECISPRECIS

PRECIS Runs at IITMPRECIS Runs at IITM

•Evaluation experiment using LBCs derived from ERA-15 (1979-93)

•Runs (3 ensembles in each experiment) already completed with LBCs having a length of 30 years each, for

•Baseline (1961-90)

•A2 scenario (2071-2100)

•B2 scenario (2071-2100)

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Climate change research in IndiaClimate change research in India

Sea LevelSea Level

NIO, GoaNIO, Goa

EnergyEnergy

TERI, DelhiTERI, Delhi

GEF/UNFCCCGEF/UNFCCC

INDOINDO--UKUK

MoEFMoEF

Govt. of IndiaGovt. of India

Industry & TransportationIndustry & Transportation

IIM, AhmedabadIIM, Ahmedabad

ERM Int. IndiaERM Int. India

Climate Change Climate Change

Scenario Development Scenario Development

I.I.T.M, PuneI.I.T.M, Pune

AgricultureAgriculture

IARI, DelhiIARI, Delhi

Ecology & ForestsEcology & Forests

IISc, BangaloreIISc, Bangalore

WaterWater

IIT, DelhiIIT, Delhi

PRECIS captures PRECIS captures

important regional important regional

information on information on

summer monsoon summer monsoon

rainfall missing in its rainfall missing in its

parent GCM parent GCM

simulations.simulations.

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Spatial Patterns of the changes in summer monsoon rainfall (%) and annual mean surface air temperature(°C) for the period 2071-2100 wrt the baseline (1961-1990)

A2A2--CTLCTL

MonsoonMonsoon

PrecipPrecip

B2B2--CTLCTL

MonsoonMonsoon

PrecipPrecip

A2A2--CTLCTL

AnnualAnnual

TempTemp

B2B2--CTLCTL

AnnualAnnual

TempTemp

Possible Climate Change impacts are Possible Climate Change impacts are

examined in the:examined in the:

�� Extremes in rainfall and Extremes in rainfall and temperaturetemperature

�� Onset and advance of Onset and advance of MonsoonMonsoon

�� Active/break cyclesActive/break cycles

�� Intensity and frequency Intensity and frequency of Monsoon Depressionsof Monsoon Depressions

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Projections of Regional Projections of Regional TmaxTmax and Daily Rainfall Changesand Daily Rainfall Changes

Highest dailyHighest daily

TmaxTmax (C) in (C) in

The Baseline The Baseline

PeriodPeriod

Expected Expected

changechange

in in TmaxTmax in in

FutureFuture

under A2under A2

Expected Expected

changechange

in Rainfallin Rainfall

Intensity inIntensity in

a rainy daya rainy day

in futurein future

Expected Expected

changechange

in No. ofin No. of

Rainy Days Rainy Days

In futureIn future

under A2under A2

Krishna Kumar et al, PNAS, 2008 (under review)Krishna Kumar et al, PNAS, 2008 (under review)

35356464183183TotalTotal

86863344SugarcaneSugarcane

33333377CottonCotton

20202299GroundnutGroundnut

313119196161NonNon--

foodgrainsfoodgrains

848419192323WheatWheat

454519194343RiceRice

37374545121121FoodgrainsFoodgrains

IrrigatIrrigat

ed area ed area

as %as %

Irrigated Irrigated

area area

under under

crop crop

(MH)(MH)

Area Area

under under

crop crop

(MH)(MH)

CropCrop

CropCrop--wise Irrigated Areaswise Irrigated Areas

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Impact of Growing Season Rainfall and Night time Temps on Rice YImpact of Growing Season Rainfall and Night time Temps on Rice Yields in Indiaields in India

TminTmin ((°°C)C)

SRES A2

Baseline

TmaxTmax ((°°C)C)

Impact of Daily Impact of Daily TmaxTmax on the Mortality rate at Delhi (Source: on the Mortality rate at Delhi (Source: HazatHazat et al 2005)et al 2005)

Krishna Kumar et al, PNAS, 2008 (under review)Krishna Kumar et al, PNAS, 2008 (under review)

UncertaintiesUncertainties

�� Emission Scenarios Emission Scenarios

� Concentration Scenarios

�� Uncertainties in GCMsUncertainties in GCMs

Haze and Smog over Northern India: 17 Dec, 2004

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SummarySummary……�� A clear signature of Global Warming in the Indian Surface air A clear signature of Global Warming in the Indian Surface air

TemperaturesTemperatures�� No significant effect of global warming in the allNo significant effect of global warming in the all--India Mean India Mean

Monsoon RainfallMonsoon Rainfall�� However, the extreme events appear to have increased in their However, the extreme events appear to have increased in their

frequency and intensityfrequency and intensity�� Future climate model projections indicate a slight (~10%) increaFuture climate model projections indicate a slight (~10%) increase se

in the mean monsoon rainfall and 2in the mean monsoon rainfall and 2--33°°C change in the surface C change in the surface temperatures by the later part of 21st Century over Indiatemperatures by the later part of 21st Century over India

�� Large uncertainties associated with the estimation of future Large uncertainties associated with the estimation of future emissions and climate model biases have to be borne in mind whilemissions and climate model biases have to be borne in mind while e framing policy decisionsframing policy decisions

�� The exact role of aerosols in modulating the regional climate haThe exact role of aerosols in modulating the regional climate has to s to be further examinedbe further examined

�� Setting up of a National Program on Global and Regional Climate Setting up of a National Program on Global and Regional Climate Change and establishment of a new dedicated Center for Climate Change and establishment of a new dedicated Center for Climate Change Research at IITM, PuneChange Research at IITM, Pune

Centre for

Climate

Change

Research

Chief

Administration/

Accounts and

IT Support

Cell (20)

Physical

Processes

Group (10)

Impacts

Assessment

Group (10)

Core

Modeling

Group (20)

Climate

Scenarios

Development

Group (12)

Outreach and

Data Products

Group (8)

CC

CC

CC

RR

20

Thank You !Thank You !