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Science for Sustainable Development
looking through the eyes of a scientist
Reiko KurodaTokyo University of Science, The University of Tokyo, Scientific
Advisory Board of UN Secretary General, TWAS Fellow
Goal 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhereGoal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agricultureGoal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all agesGoal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for allGoal 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girlsGoal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for allGoal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for allGoal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent
work for allGoal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovationGoal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countriesGoal 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainableGoal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patternsGoal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts*Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable developmentGoal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat
desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity lossGoal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and
build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levelsGoal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development
Sustainable development goals
I) Importance of creating new scientific knowledge
II) Understandwhat is happening in our planet,what may happen in future, andwhat we can and have to do to change the trendsto achieve the Earth we want in next generations,
without yielding to emotions but based onscientific evidence and logical/critical thinking
・Urgent environmental problems we are facingand the predicted future based on scientific evidence
・How science and technology are contributing to the solutionof problems
・What may happen in the next 15 years・How science and technology have changed our society
for the last 15 years・What is science, and what can science offer for the
sustainable developmentthrough new scientific discoveries/ technologies and innovationbut science has limitations(lack of knowledge/understanding of complex Nature,varied interpretations,matters with uncertainties) - Trust in Science
・Science and society: co-design and co-production of knowledge
Increasing problems threatening global sustainability
Energy Depletion
Created from IEA ‘World Energy Outlook 2006’
World CO2 Emission byEnergy Consumption
Hun
dred
billi
onto
ns
(year)0
50100
150200250300
350400450
1990 2004 2015 2030
Gas
Petroleum
Coal
Water Problem
Created from Ministry of Environment ‘Whitepaper on Environment 2002’ and WWC ‘World Water Vision’
World Water Deficiency
Wat
er-s
tress
ed p
opul
atio
n/hu
ndre
d m
illio
ns
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Ren
ewab
le w
ater
reso
urce
s (m
3/pe
rson
・yea
r)
05
1015202530354045
Present 20250
Water-stressed population
Renewable water resources
Population growth accelerates problems of resources/energy depletion, loss of biodiversity, environmental deterioration, spreading epidemic, fear of terrorism etc.
Urgent Global Problems in the 21st Century
Population Growth
Created from United Nations‘World Population Prospects 2004’
World Population
世界
アジア
0102030405060708090
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Pop
ulat
ion/
hund
red
milli
ons
World
Asia
Typhoon Morakot (Kiko)2008
Flood, Pakistan Aug.2010
Reuters
Heat wave, Russia Aug.2010Kinki Peninsula Sep. 2011Deep-seated landslide due to heavy rain
Typhoon Haiyan, Philippines, Nov. 2013winds of at least 140 m.p.h.
Understanding the causes of change
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since preindustrial times from fossil fuel emissions and net land use change emissions.
The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.
Source : IPCC AR5
Partial pressure of dissolved CO2 at the ocean surface (blue curves) and in situ pH (green curves), a measure of the acidity of ocean water.
Warming of the climate is unequivocal
Source : IPCC AR5
Since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia: The atmosphere and the oceans have
warmed The amounts of snow and ice have
diminished Sea level has risen The concentrations of GHGs have
increased
Some scientists claim・ There is no global warming
Temperature have either stoppedwarming or have begun to cool in thelast seventeen years
・ The increase in global mean surfacetemperature is due to the changes in totalsolar irradiance and nothing to do withhuman activities.
Geophysical events:earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption
Meteorological events:tropical storm, winter storm,severe weather, hail, tornado,local storms
Hydrological events:flash flood, river flood, storm surge, mass movement (landslide)
Climatological events:heatwave, freeze, wildland fire, drought
Natural catastrophesCannot stop the incidence
But we can mitigatedisasters
Well‐developed early warning system of earthquake/tsunami in Japan
P wave
S wave Magnitude,Possibility of Tsunami
preliminary tremors
Principalmotions
At the time of Great East‐Japan earthquake, 27Shinkansen trains were running in the area at full speed, but all automatically stopped safely (thanks to UrEDAS P‐wave warning system developed by the JR Institute) and none ran off the tracks.
ⒸRK
Advanced Technology for Early Warning & Hazard Mapping
IFASIntegrated Flood Analysis System
“Real‐time” “worldwide” nowcasts
International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Managementunder the auspices of UNESCO hosted by PWRI, Tsukuba
Remote sensinge.g. CHRS
ⒸRK
Nowcasting contributes to the:• reduction of fatalities and injuries due to weather hazards;• reduction of private, public, and industrial, property damage; and to• improved efficiency and savings for industry, transportation and agriculture.
Nowcasting
Nowcasting comprises the detailed description of the current weather along with forecasts obtained by extrapolation for a period of 0 to 6 hours ahead.it is possible to forecast small features such as individual storms with reasonable accuracy.
Geophysical events:Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption
Meteorological events:Tropical storm, winter storm,severe weather, hail, tornado,local storms
Hydrological events:Flash flood, river flood, stormsurge, mass movement (landslide)
Climatological events:Heatwave, freeze, wildland fire, drought
Cannot stop the incidence
Natural? Human-induced ?
However, we can reduce the risk
Natural catastrophes
A New Initiative on Earth System Research for Global
Sustainability.
ICSU, ISSC, Belmont Forum, IGFA
・HFA, ・IRDR, ・ WDS・A New Initiative on Earth System Research for Global Sustainability.
ICSU, ISSC, Belmont Forum, IGFA
・We can reduce the disaster risk of both natural and human‐induced disasters
Early warning system Science/ Technology/ InnovationBuild/promote a culture of disaster resilience
・Human‐induced disasters Determine how to anticipate, avoid, and manage disruptive global environmental change
・Partnership of Science and SocietyScientists with social literacy/Citizens with science literacyScience interpreter/communicator linking the two
ICSU, UNESCO, ISSC, IGFA, Belmont Foundation;Future Earth, WDS, IRDR, ICHARM etc
ⒸRK
Big Changes in Socioeconomic Structure:
Era of Globalization, Knowledge Society, Knowledge Specialization, Knowledge Competition
Big changes like the tectonic shifts have occurred in USA in 1990s by micro-processors, and the internet,
and spread throughout the world, as it is easy to cross the border in the flattened world
International specialization ⇔self supporting within a country•International specialization of brainwork•Global optimum resource distribution・KPO (knowledge-process-outsourcing)
IBM Call centers, Accounting, MOOC, Flipped Classroom,
•Menial jobs by cheapoverseas labour
•Localized product development
RK
Science/technologies and the effect in socin the last 15 years
95,5
40,4
15,8
32,0
9,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*
Per 1
00 inhabitants
Global ICT developments, 2001‐2014
Mobile‐cellular telephone subscriptions
Individuals using the Internet
Fixed‐telephone subscriptions
Active mobile‐broadband subscriptions
Fixed (wired)‐broadband subscriptions
Note: * EstimateSource: ITU World Telecommunication /ICT Indicators database
http://www.itu.int/en/ITU‐D/Statistics/Pages/stat/default.aspx
An estimated4.55 billion mobile
1.75 billion smartphoneusers worldwide in 2014
RK
Somatic cloning iPS Cells
reset
iPS cell
ATGCATGC ATGC ATGC
4 genes introduced
Embryonic stem-cell like
A fertilized egg Individual organismdifferentiation, development
Prof. Ian Wilmut, From a mammary gland
1997 2006
Regenerative medicineProf. S. YamanakaMouse, rat, rabbit,
goat, cow, pig etc.
Change in DNA decoding cost
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2009
year
US $
cost of decoding per basepair
cost of gene synthesis
(Dr. Robert Carlson's data,biologist, USA)
Image of DNA sequencer upgrade
10
1,000
100,000
10,000,000
1,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
10,000,000,000,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
year
decipherable number ofbase pair (per day)
ABI3730
SOLiD3
PacBio
manually analysis
(Dr. YoshihideHayashizaki's data,
(possible)
:institution
s
Courtesy to Dr.Y. HayashizakiName of instrument
Courtesy to Dr. Robert Carlson, US biologist
Human Genome Project: 1990‐2003
3Gbp
Rice Genome Project: 1998‐2004
0.39Gbp
Now Decode Your DNA for $1000Individual's genome in a day's time for $100
International Business Times, Independent January 11-12, 2012
Genetic approachTailor made medicineprevention of certain diseases
Cancer treatment (new radiation therapy, chemotherapyetc).
Brain scienceneurodegenerative diseasesMemory, cognition
GM for crop production medical purpose – e.g. anti hay-fever GMO riceimprovement of environment - adsorb Cd2+
and many others
Other developments
Adapted from Dr. West’s data (Hitachi symposium)
Diffusion of technology in society is accelerated.
Gas that contain carbon, chlorine, fluorine, and sometimes hydrogen.・They carry wonderful characteristics. ・They are stable and non-toxic. ・They are used as working fluids in refrigerators and air conditioners because they are gases at room temperature but can be easily liquefied by compression.
・They were used as foaming agents in the production of polystyrene andpolyurethane foam plastics used for insulation and packing materials.
・They were used as a propellant in spray cans for paint, insect repellantsand deodorants.
However, the inertness and lack of water solubility of CFCs turned out to be problematic. Ozone depletion!Science could not foresee the complex long-term, long-distance and indirect effects!
Chlorofluorocarbons
CFC‐12
Limitation of science
Ozone depletion is more extreme in Antarctica than at the North Pole because high wind speeds cause a fast-rotating vortex of cold air, leading to extremely low temperatures. Under these conditions, human-made chlorofluorocarbons –CFCs – have a stronger effect on the ozone, depleting it and creating the infamous hole.
Good news: The hole in the ozone layer is finally starting to heal ?
Image Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center/M. Radcliff
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone LayerThe treaty was opened for signature on September 16, 1987, and entered into force on January 1, 1989. As a result of the international agreement, the ozone hole in Antarctica is slowly recovering.Indicate that the ozone layer will return to 1980 levels between 2050 and 2070.
Sep. 2014
alternative chlorofluorocarbons
HFC HCFC
Science and policy making
Science and technology are frequently involved in policy making: On climate change, cyber‐security, pandemics, food technologies, regenerative medicine, poverty etc.
However, scientific advice is increasingly difficult particularly in emergent and uncertain cases.
Is the view close to reality? The role of scientist and science as to provide the means for decision, and that of politician and politics as to decide the ends
Who evaluates, who decides, who judges and who is responsible for the consequence?
What is Future Earth?A global platform for international scientific collaboration• Enables integrated research on grand
challenges and transformations to sustainability
• Strengthens global partnershipsbetween researchers, funders and users of research
• Communicates science to society and society to science
Co-design and co-production of knowledgeNew
Future Earth
Linking science and society
Education Science journalism
Scientists with social literacy and ethicsCitizens/policy makers with science literacyi.e., basic knowledge of science, scientific way of thinking (critical thinking)
Science Interpreters for Interactive communication between the two
・Urgent environmental problems we are facingand the predicted future based on scientific evidence
・How science and technology are contributing to the solutionof problems
・What may happen in the next 15 years・How science and technology have changed our society
for the last 15 years・What is science, and what can science offer for the
sustainable developmentthrough new scientific discoveries/ technologies and innovationbut science has limitations(lack of knowledge/understanding of complex Nature,varied interpretations,matters with uncertainties) - Trust in Science
・Science and society co-design and co-production of knowledge
Six essential elements for delivering the SDGs
The Road to Dignity by 2030: Synthesis Report of the Secretary‐GeneralOn the Post‐2015 Agenda, New York, Dec. 2014
Thank you for your kind attention