Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
SMR.1769-13
SCHOOL OF NUCLEAR KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
18-22 September 2006
The Need for Nuclear Knowledge
Y. YANEV International Atomic Energy Agency Department of Nuclear Engineering
Knowledge Management Unit A-1400 Vienna
AUSTRIA
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
1
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
Yanko YanevHead Knowledge Management Unit
Department of Nuclear Energy
2
Outline
• Status of Nuclear Energy Development• The Global Energy Imbalance• The Role of Nuclear Energy• The three legs of the chair and the need
for Nuclear Knowledge• Concerns• Activities • Hopes
3
• More than 11 000 reactor years of experience
• More than 440 power reactors in operation(installed capacity > 370 GWe)
• Average plant load factor: >80%
• Contributions to global electricity: ~16% in 2004
• Low electricity cost, good safety records
• In 2004/5, new capacity 7529 MWe connected to the grid.
- South Korea: Ulchin 5 & 6 (2x960 MWe ) - China: Qinshan 3 (610 MWe)- Japan: Hamaoka 5 (1380 MWe) - Ukraine: Khmelnitsky 2 & Rovno (2x950 MWe)- Russian Federation: Kalinin 3 (950 MWe)- Canada: Bruce 3 (769 MWe) restarted
• Shift in national energy strategies
Status of Nuclear Power
4
The Nuclear Power Map
Considering NP- Population 1 Billion- Assume:- installed capacity 1.5
KW/cap- 20% NP in energy mix
- Total: ~ 300 GW(e)With NP China and India Considering NP
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
2
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20506
6,5
7
7,5
8
8,5
9RenewablesBiomassNuclearGasOil
CoalPopulation
Source IEA : Energy to 2050 -Scenarios for a Sustainable Future
Sustainable Development Vision Scenario
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2030 2050
Exa
joul
es (E
J)
SRES A1T IEA SD Vision
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Renewables
Gtoe
6
Map of Global Energy PovertyMap of Global Energy Poverty
Millions of People Without Electricity
Millions of People Relying on Biomass
28 20
509 530
56 96
815
221 332
801
18 570
1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
By 2030 (IAE):
GDP annual growth 3.2 %,
Electricity use 2,5 %,
New 4800 GW(e),
Investment 10 T$,
Expressed interest in NP
Paris (2005):
Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, Morocco, Poland, Turkey, Vietnam
GC,Vienna (Sept. 2005)Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria,Malaysia, Tunisia, Tanzania,Thailand, Uruguay, Chile,
7
Growing expectations in NP: developed and developing countries.
Developed countries:•Modest increase in use/capita•Non-power application: transport(H2)•Market and deregulation (investment return, renewable, waste)•Public acceptance, climate change factors
Developing countries:•Multiple increase in use /capita, living standards•Industrial development•Non-power application: water, heat•Infrastructure
8
World Energy Demand : More Energy, Better Life
UN’s HDI (Human Development Index) and Electricity Use
• HDI based on three indicators : life time, educational level, GDP• Above 5000kWh, no country has an HDI below 0.9.• Below 4000kWh, no country above 0.9.
Source : Global Energy Futures and HD by Alan D. Pasternak, 2000. DOE.
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
3
9
Applicants economic and financial parameters
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Italy
Pol
and
Chi
le
Mal
aysi
a
Uru
guay
Turk
ey
Thai
land
Phi
lippi
nes
Tuni
sia
Kaz
akhs
tan
Egy
pt
Mor
occo
Indo
nesi
a
Vie
tnam
Alg
eria
Iran
Zim
babw
e
Gha
na
Nig
eria
Tanz
ania
GNP/cap.
Annual growth
Human development index
10
2002 2022 2032 2042 20520
1000
2000
CoalOilHydroRenewableNuclear
YEAR
Projected installed capacity [GWe]
275GWe(Nuclear)82 GWe(Renewable)
150 GWe(Hydro)204 GWe(Oil & Gas)
615 GWe(Coal)
2.72GWe(Nuclear)
1344 GWe(TOTAL)
139 GWe(TOTAL)
Source : An International Journal of Nuclear Power Vol18 No 203 (2004)INDIA
11
23779
400
160
580
27020
50
2.1 11.7 4060
1650
600
960
72.4327
Source : CIAE, July 2005
CHINA
12
The Nuclear Power Future
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
4
13
Generation 3+
Generation 4Existing fleet40-year plant life
Plant life extension beyond 40 years
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
Average plant life : 48 years
Nuclear Power Technology Forecast
Source : EDF, ENC 2002
Live extension of present PWRsReplaced by EPR by 2020 and Gen IV fast reactors by 2035-2040.A transition phase between present reactors and 4th generation systems.
14
Nuclear Power Resource Forecast
15
01
2
3
4ECONOMICS
SAFETY
ENVIRONMENT
WASTEMANAGEMENT
PROLIFERATIONRESISTANCE
INFRASTRUCTURE
21002010
4 = much better
3 = better
2 = present situation (2010)
1 = worst
The Nuclear Power Challenges
16
The 3 legs of the chair..
• Public interest• Responsible use
of nuclear technology
• Sustainable nuclear knowledge and expertise
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
5
17
Concerns
• Aging of personnel, retirement• Loss of knowledge, • Degradation in technology skills and know-
how• Degradation in Safety of current installation• Dilution or loss of innovation potential
18
A look in the rear view mirror……Decline in UK Public Fission R&D Funding
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
3 5 0
4 0 0
4 5 0
5 0 0
1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 80 1 98 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 00
Fund
ing
£m (2
001m
v)
19
A look in the rear view mirror……Decline in UK R&D Manpower in Industry
20
HRD : Deficiency of NE GraduatesNE graduates Supply and Demand in U.S.
Source : NEDHO 2004
• Demand prediction – Survey result of 52 percent of 176 U.S. companies
• Supply prediction - Survey result of 28 U.S. universities • ¼ Supply/Demand (S/D) deficiency in U.S.
• It looks like the Janus Face
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
6
21
Nuclear Engineers : High Demand = High OpportunityNuclear Engineers : High Demand = High OpportunityNuclear Engineers : High Demand = High Opportunity
HRD : The Janus Face of S/D Deficiency
Source : DOE presentation by W.D. Magwood, 2004
• Despite of more job opportunity with high salary, the supply is continuously decreased due to the closing or merging of NE departments in universities.
• To enhance employment of the student, it is needed to encourage universities and graduate school
22
HRD : Long-term InvestmentTrends in Enrollments vs. DOE University Program Investment
• A unique solution of S/D deficiency is dependant on the long-term investment to NE
• How ? When ? Where ? Amount ?• The Yoyo Syndrome and Long Winter in four season
Model by B.J. Chung
Source : DOE presentation by W.D. Magwood, 2002
23 6 24
Needed Expertise in Germany
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080
Preparation andOperation of
Interim Storageof Spent Fuel
Decommissioning
NPP Operation
Source: Fritz, FZK, 2002.
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
7
25
Time to built expertise
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Industry
RegulatoryAuthority
Research
Universities
Source: Fritz, FZK, 2002/Griffiths, NEA News, 2002.
26
HRD : Highlight Issues
Employment Crisis vs.
• Nuclear Energy Faces Significant Human Resources Issues• Ageing of the 1st generation experts• Massive retirement within next years• Decreasing student supply and reducing nuclear program• Deficiency of human resource to replace the current
workforce
High Job Opportunities
Source : IYNC 2004 presentation by B.J. Chung & OECD NEA, 2001 Nuclear Education & Training : Cause for Concern
27
How urgent is Nuclear KM?
• Unless action is taken now, invaluable assets in critical nuclear knowledge and capacity will soon be lost.
• The need to sustain the present level of deployment of nuclear technology (energy and non-energy alike) requires urgent action throughout the nuclear community and beyond.
IAEA Meeting of Senior Officials , June 2002
28
The Role of the IAEAIAEA has an obligation to lead activities towards preservation and enhancement of nuclear knowledge by complementing, and as appropriate supplementing, activities by governments, industry, academia and international organizations.
• The Agency, in particular, should use its potential in assisting Member States to ensure the preservation of viable nuclear education and training which is a necessary prerequisite for succession planning.
IAEA Meeting of Senior Officials , June 2002
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
8
29
IAEA Objectives
• To increase awareness in Member States,
• To provide methodology and guidance,
• To support nuclear education and training,
• To implement special projects, provide services and support to nuclear knowledge management initiatives.
30
Activities
A substantial area of Agency activity involves assisting Member States:
-capacity building,-human resources development,-support to educational programmes, -hands on training, -knowledge transfer,
in ways best suited to their desired uses of nuclear technology.
31
IAEA Nuclear Energy Knowledge Base
A new system of Agency Technical Support Documents
NUCLEAR ENERGY SERRIES / NES
Level 1Fundamentals/Basics and Objectives
Level 2Guidelines
Level 3Supporting Reports
32
Agency’s Nuclear Safety Knowledge
• Embedded in the IAEA Safety Standards
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
9
33
Current activities of the KM Programme
• Developing Policy and Guidance for Nuclear Knowledge ManagementKnowledge Management in Nuclear Power Plants,Knowledge Loss Risk Management methodology,etc.
• Networking Nuclear EducationWNU, ANENT,ENEN,UNENE,IUSS, etc.
• Pilot Projects in critical areas -Fast Reactor KP initiative, GCR,Chernobyl Knowledge
Preservation, others.
34
ANENT (URL: www.anent-iaea.org)
Asian Network for Education in Nuclear Technology(ANENT)
35
The ANENT was launched in February 2004.
What is ANENT?
The ANENT has 28 member institutions from 12 countries, and 4 collaborating organizations.
Vietnam
Australia China India Indonesia Korea Malaysia
Mongolia Pakistan The Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand
ARCCNM ASNM ENEN WNU
36
ANENT Web-portal is developed.(URL: www.anent-iaea.org)
Progress of the ANENT
A cyber platform supports various types of web-based learning;
“Activities” support each ANENT group activities;
A database provides data on curricula from ANENT member institutions;
The other functions facilitate information exchange.
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
10
37
A joint initiative of IAEA, ICTP and WNU
Trieste Summer School for Nuclear Knowledge Management
38
39
The new Agency “Nucleus” portal
40
Future plans
• Continue to maintain the nuclear knowledge base,
• Complete the nuclear knowledge management methodologies, tools and practices and make them widely available.
• Initiate knowledge preservation projects in important areas,
• Provide support to educational networks, • Cooperate with Industry (WANO, WNA) on
assessing and managing “knowledge loss risks”.
The need for Nuclear Knowledge
11
41
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuc
lear
cap
acity
(GW
(e))
Discontinuity ?
What will be the role of nuclear
power?
42
I thank you for your attention
H O P E S
"Nature is neutral. Man has taken from nature the power to make the world a desert or to make the deserts a garden. There is no evil in the atom. The devil is only in our souls”