Scenarios - PIK Research Portal · scenario -- and a description of the state of things at that time. 3. A geographic coverage– the spatial coverage of the scenarios – city, country,

Scenarios

Detlef van Vuuren

AlterNet Summer School Detlef van Vuuren – September 2009

Contents

! Introduction to scenarios! Millennium Ecosystem Assessment as example of

scenario approach! IPCC scenarios


Contents




Development over the last 100-200 years:

" Major gains in quality of life since industrial revolution"Massive growth of human population and energy

consumption)" But a simultaneous loss in environmental quality (e.g 25% loss

in forest area" Long-term trends.... how would they continue in the future?

Human development index Biodiversity


Explorations of long-term futures are very relevant…"Where are we heading?

"Actions now influence the future: " Inertia

"e.g. lifetime avg. power plant > 40 years; "lifetime CO2 molecule in atmosphere > 100 years

" System may change irreversibly (e.g. lock-in) " We may pass thresholds… e.g. loss of Greenland Icesheet (6 meter

sea-level rise)"We may want (or need) to act:

" Prevent certain futures from happening" Adapt to certain futures" Also here time play a role


…. but such explorations are very difficult"Numerous examples of “wrong predictions”

31 Maart 1972

This wrong predictioninfluenced energy policy in the Netherlands to try to sellout natural gas in avoidgetting stuck with it in the ground.

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Speculation

Scenarios

Predictions For instance,aquarium inlaboratorium

For instance,climate system

For instance,World economy in 100 years


What are Scenarios?A plausible description of how the future may unfold based on 'if-then' propositions. A typical scenario includes a representation of the initial situation and a sequence of events that describe the key driving forces and the changes that lead to an image of the future.

What they are not:Predictions : A likely description of the future state of a system – thus unconditional upon major exogenous assumptions.Extrapolation: A continuation of a trendPure speculation: Any statement on plausability is even impossible

So ,what are scenarios?


1. To explore future possible states:

To imagine/estimate future states of the environment and society.

2. To test strategies:

“Wind tunnel”. What is needed to reach certain goals; What could be the performance of strategies against the backdrop of future developments of the environment and society; What are robust strategies across a wide range of these developments

In the following context:

! Decision-support and strategic planning! Scientific / research application! Education / public! Provide a common language

Objectives of scenario analysis


1. A start/base year (or period) and a description of the state of things in this year.

2. A time horizon (or period) and time steps – the end point in time of the scenario -- and a description of the state of things at that time.

3. A geographic coverage – the spatial coverage of the scenarios – city, country, global?

4. A description of step-wise changes – A description of the events between the base year and time horizon which explains how the future situation occurred from the present.

5. Driving forces or uncertainties – The main factors that influence the step-wise changes of the scenario.

6. Storyline – A narrative that presents the important aspects of a scenario, including the relationship between driving forces and events of the scenario.

Elements of a Scenario


Scenario development : Product and Process

! Steps in scenario analysis:! Define focal question! Involve stakeholders! Choose methods! Develop initial scenarios! Analyse scenarios! Interact and revise! Report

! Often learning during scenario development even more important than the product


1. Deductive ←→ Inductive2. Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory 3. Qualitative ←→ Quantitative

4. No probability # $ Probabilistic5. Multiple scenarios # $ Baseline/alternative

Part 2. Types of Scenarios


Deductive Scenarios Scenarios derived from a framework which organizes the big uncertainties or questions about the future into a logical form. First framework established, then scenarios deducedfrom the framework.

1. Deductive ←→ Inductive

Inductive ScenariosScenarios derived from taking into consideration all data and ideas about the future. Scenarios built step-wise, “bottom-up”. First all data are considered, then insights about the future are induced from this study of the data.


Deductive Scenarios: Example

Clear framework:2 axes based on 2 major uncertainties:•Globalisation/regionalisation•Pro-active vs. reactive

IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios


AlterNet Summer School Detlef van Vuuren – September 2009Kassel, Mai 2000 (TH

Technology, Economics, and Private Sector [TEC]Technology, Economics, and Private Sector [TEC]•Investments in Technology -> Big gains in efficiency of water use •Large expansion of irrigated area (+ 23 %)

Values and Lifestyles [VAL]Values and Lifestyles [VAL]•Behavioral changes -> Significant structural change in water sector •Small increase in irrigated area (+ 5 %)

Business as Usual [BAU]Business as Usual [BAU]•Continuation of current trends

Inductive Scenarios: Example

World-water vision



Exploratory Scenarios (“descriptive”)Present → FutureDeparture point: The current situation and then describe the steps that lead to a future situation.

2. Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory

Anticipatory Scenarios (“prescriptive”, “normative”) Present ← FutureStart with a prescribed vision of the future (either optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral) and then work backwards in time to visualize how this future could emerge.


Exploratory Scenario of German Wind Energy MarketNow: Wind energy is subsidized in Germany but public opposition to its landscape impacts is growing. 2010: Signing of Copenhagen Protocol leads to further demand for emission reduction; but government decides to focus primarily on carbon-capture-and-storage2020: Wind power grows slowly

Anticipatory Scenario of German Wind Energy Market2020: 30% penetration required.2015: Large building programme required – given building time2010: Decision on 2020 target needed – in order to allow further policy-making

2. Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory


Qualitative ScenariosIn form of:

! words: written phrases, outlines; or storylines

! Storylines – Narrative description of scenario, highlighting main features, and relationship between driving forces and main features.

! visual symbols: diagrams; pictures

Quantitative Scenarios! Numerical information: Calculated mostly using models

3. Qualitative ←→ Quantitative


Qualitative Scenarios

(Source: Global Scenarios Group, SEI & others)



Qualitative ScenariosAdvantages: Understandable, interesting; represent views and

complexity of many different interests.

Disadvantages: Arbitrary, tough to identify or test underlying assumptions; do not provide numerical information.

Strenghs and weaknesses

Quantitative ScenariosAdvantages: “Scientific” (based on models); Numerical information; can

identify underlying assumptions.

Disadvantages: Models have limited view of the world and are often not transparent; exactness gives illusion of certainty.



Qualitative storylines

" Provides a consistent set of assumptions." Allows creativity (not bounded by formal models)" Can fill in areas where modelling does not existAnd quantification…" Brings in quantitative information in areas where knowledge exists

[covers complex interactions]" Restricts outcomes to a possible realm" Can illustrate messages / communicates well

is an iterative process

Combined Approach


Mostly used method in globalenvironmental assessment (MA, IPCC SRES, UNEP GEO)… but not all (e.g. Agriculture Assessment, new IPCC scenarios)

Disadvantages: time-consuming, and controversial among some disciplines.


! Factors contributing to uncertainty! Ontic uncertainty (variability)! Epistemic uncertainty (limited knowledge)

- Probabilities (Baysian)- Conditional statements- Consious not knowing- Ignorance

- Disagreement among experts

! These occur at different scales- Parameters- Models- Theories

4. Probabilistic ←→ Storylines


ProbalisticScenario development

A set of storylinebased scenarios

Estimate best-guess and uncertainties of all relevant parameter in model; givesbest-guess outcome + uncertainty range

Develop storylines aroundmajor uncertainties – and usestoryline to estimate consistent values for other parameters. Explore the future.

+SD

-SD

95% prob.

95% prob.

Mean

Webster et al. (2001) Nakicenovic et al (2000)





“Future emissions are the product of a large range of very uncertain factors such as population, technology, socio-economic development etc. Storylines are used to define a consistent set of assumptions.Scenarios can help exploringsome of these futures; theyare not predictions.”

There is no value in providingusers a set of lines that go allover the place. It is the moraltask of experts to determinewhat are the most likelyassumptions – and thereforethe most likely outcomes. Scientists deal withuncertainty by indicating the most likely outcome – and anuncertainty range.





“The probabilistic approach only attempts to assign subjective probabilities in a situation of ignorance forms a dismissal of uncertainty in favor of spuriously constructed expert opinion”.

Decision-makers need toaddress risks. Risks are determined by impacts AND probability. For instance, information that an asteroidcan destroy the earth can onlybe properly assessed, if oneknows that changes are 1 in a billion.



%Good in addressing epistemicuncertainty; especially the more conditional statements

%Strong in exploring, allows creativity, flexible in including non-modelledelements%Necessary if major uncertainties withunknown trends and consequences.

%But: %Difficult to use / understand%Hard to use in policy analysis%Risk of becoming fairy-tales

%Good in addressing ontic uncertaintyand epistemic uncertainty that can beexpressed in statistical terms

%Uses scientific rigidity of the model%Users can easily interpret results%In policy-studies one can use onlymean case

%But:%How to deal with unknown pdfs?%How good is the model?%What is not modelled?





5. Multiple scenarios ←→baseline/alternative

Multiple scenarios Baseline / alternative

Focus on uncertainty, exploring, robustness

First better in recognition phase of policy-making

Focus on solutions, required changes

Fits better in response phase of policy-making

No single baseline! Baseline based on continuation of current trends; as reference foralternatives


Many environmental scenario studies

Storylines and modelling; modelling on the basis of linked models

Water and agricultureCAModel-based projectionsChanges in agricultureIFPRISingle projection, mostly based on expert judgement.Changes in agricultureFAO-AT2020


Changes in ecosystem services;

MA


Global environmental changeUNEP-GEO3/GEO4

Assessment of available literature and some calculations on the basis of IPCC-SRES

Climate change, causes and impacts

IPCC-TAR and AR4

Modelling supported by simple storylines. Multiple models elaborate the same storyline to map out uncertainties.

Greenhouse gas emissionsIPCC-SRES

Strong focus on storyline, supported by quantitative accounting system

Sustainable developmentGSG

Character of assessmentMain focus


Archetype scenarios (found in manystudies)

mixedlocal steering; local actors

strong national governments

strong global governance

policies reduce market failures

policies create open markets

Policies and institutions

weak globalisationtrade barrierstrade barriersglobalisationglobalisationglobalisationTrade

both reactive and proactive

proactivereactiveproactiveboth reactive and proactive

reactiveEnvironmental protection

not definedlocal sustainabilitysecurityglobal sustainability

various goalseconomic growthMain objectives

mediumranging from slow to rapid

slowranging from mid to rapid

rapidrapidTechnology development

mediummediumhighlowlowlowPopulation growth

medium (globalisation)

ranging from mid to rapid

slowranging from slow to rapid

rapidvery rapidEconomic development

Business as Usual

Regional SDRegional competition

Global SDReformed Markets

Economic optimism


Reference scenario

Reference scenario

B2Business as Usual

Adapting MosaicB2Regional SD

Order from Strength

Security FirstA2Regional Competion

TechnoGardenSustainability First

B1 (B1-450)Global SD

Policy casesPolicy casesGlobal Orchestration

Policies FirstReformed Markets

Markets FirstA1Conventional Markets

IAASTDOECDMAUNEP GEO-4IPCC-SRES

Note: Italics are used to indicate that scenarios are not completely consistent with the group in which it is categorised.

Archetype scenarios (found in manystudies)


Contents

! Introduction to scenarios! Millennium Ecosystem Assessment as example

of scenario approach! IPCC scenarios


1. Define focal question and boundary conditions2. Use conceptual framework / describe driving forces, role of different

actors3. Develop initital storyline-based scenarios4. Quantification5. Analyse scenarios 6. Revise and interact

Steps in Scenario Development


Set-up Millennium Ecosystem reflectsthis scheme

ExpertiseLiteratureStorytelling

ExpertiseLiteratureModels

2 Chapters:-Mutually reinforcing in development-But reported separately-Stories checked forinconsistencies

Milllennium EcosystemAssessment


1. Define focal question and boundary conditions

What are the consequences of plausible changes in development paths for ecosystems and their services over the next 50 years and what will be the consequences of those changes for human well-being?

Focal question:

"Focus on ecosystem services!"No single model exists that answer this"Part of this cannot even be modelled well"Still – the question is very relevant"Thus, combine elements that are relevant to this question,

in the best way we can… from coupled, incomplete models, from literature and expertise and from consistent thinking (storylines) $ Assessment


2. Conceptual framework and drivers


Driving forces of change:

! Anthropogenic - relating to human activity (e.g. demographic trends, economic development, land use change, fossil fuel combustion, industrial processes, agriculture)

! Natural - processes in the environment (e.g. climatic fluctuations, erosion and sedimentation, ice dynamics, volcanoes, solar variations, population dynamics)



Indirect drivers (operate by altering one or more direct drivers)

! demographic! economic! socio-political! cultural and religious! science and technology

Nelson et al., 2005


Direct drivers(unequivocally influence system processes)

! climate variability / change! plant nutrient use! land conversion! invasive species! diseases




3. Develop initital storyline-based scenarios

" Global Orchestration Globally connected society that focuses on global trade and economic liberalization and takes a reactive approach to ecosystem problems but that also takes strong steps to reduce poverty and inequality and to invest in public goods such as infrastructure and education..

"Sustainability through Development

" Order from Strength Regionalized and fragmented world, concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets, paying little attention to public goods, and taking a reactive approach to ecosystem problems.

"Clash of Civilisations world"Sustainability through Protection


" Adapting Mosaic Regional watershed-scale ecosystems are the focus of political and economic activity. Local institutions are strengthened and local ecosystem management strategies are common; societies develop a strongly proactive approach to the management of ecosystems.

Small is beautiful / No logoSustainability through Local Responsibility

" TechnoGarden Globally connected world relying strongly on environmentally sound technology, using highly managed, often engineered, ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services, and taking a proactive approach to the management of ecosystems in an effort to avoid problems.

SpaceShip EarthSustainability through technology and policy

3. Develop initital storyline-based scenarios


4. Quantification

Different tools available" Define exogenously (e.g. from published

projections – often indirect drivers)" Extrapolate past trends" Expert elicitation" Modelling


Framework of the Integrated Assessment

Model IMAGE 2.4

MNP, 2006

4. Quantification


Linkages between models

Alcamo et al., 2005a

4. Quantification


IndirectSociopoliticalCulture and religion

DirectSpecies introduction/ removal

IndirectPopulation growthEconomic activitiesTechnology change

DirectEnergy useEmissions of air pollutants (S,N)Emissions of GHG and climate changeLand use/cover changeHarvest and resource consumptionExternal inputs (irrigation, fertilizer use)

Unquantified DriversQuantified Drivers

4. Quantification

Quantification works well for most drivers


mediumlowlowhighMigration

D: mediumI: medium

D: highI: high until 2010, deviate to medium by 2050

D: highI: high

D: lowI: low

Mortality

D: mediumI: medium

D: HighI: low until 2010, deviate to medium by 2050

D: highI: low

D: lowI: medium

Fertility

TechnoGarden

Adapting Mosaic

Order From Strength

GlobalOrchestrationVariable

High economicgrowth and

education of women leads todrop of fertility

High economicgrowth and

investment intohealth services leads to drop of

mortality

Globalised worldhas high migration

rates

Populationgrowth


Technologydevelopment

medium for technology in general; high for environ. technology

medium-lowlowhighOverall trend

highlow-mediumlow (medium among cultural groups)

highInternational relationships (stimulating technology transfer)

mediumbegins like Order from Strength, then increases in tempo

industrialized countries: medium; developing countries: low

highInvestments into human capital

highbegins like Order from Strength, then increases in tempo

industrialized countries: medium;developing countries: low

highInvestments into new produced assets

TechnoGardenAdapting MosaicOrder from Strength

Global Orchestration


yes, aims at stabilization of CO2-equivalent concentration at 550 ppmv

nononoClimate policy

preference for renewable energy resources and rapid technology change

some preference for clean energy resources

focus on domestic energy resources

market liberalization; selects least-cost options; rapid technology change

Energy supply

lifestyle assumptions and energy efficiency investments based on current Japan and West European values

regionalized assumptions

regionalized assumptions

lifestyle assumptions and energy efficiency investments based on current North American values

Energy demand

TechnoGardenAdapting MosaicOrder from StrengthGlobal

Orchestration

PopulationGDP

IncomeElasticity

Energy demand

Costs of differentenergy sources

Depletion Technologydevelopment

Preferences

Energy supply

Costs of differentenergy sources

Depletion Technologydevelopment

Trade restrictions

PricesPriceElasticity

Climate policy(Carbon tax)


Models can next calculate consequences of these energy use patterns

GHG emissions

Temperature

Acidification


Coverage of ecosystem services in models is poor

Provisioning services:+ food, fuel, freshwater, ? Genetic resources, biogeochemic cycles- Ornamental resources,

Regulating services: + climate regulation, erosion control, ? Air quality, water regulation, water purification, - regulation of human disease, biologicalcontrol, pollination, storm protection

Supporting services:+ provisioning of habitat, primaryproduction? Nutrient cycling,- Soil formation

Cultural services:- spiritual, aestatic, education, recreational

4. Quantification


5. Results

Food security is not achieved by 2050, and child undernutrition would be difficult to eradicate (and is projected to increase in some regions in some MA scenarios)

Food production increases further, but hunger not solved


Crop Land Forest Area

Increase in food production mostly through increased yields, but partly also through expansion of ag-land at the expense of nature

5. Results


Changes in direct drivers

!Habitat transformation:! Further 10–20% of

grassland and forestland is projected to be converted by 2050

5. Results


Integration of qualitative and quantitative

5. Results


Shift of knowledge from traditional forms to technological information; changing knowledge through spiral of technical innovation. Tourism in engineered ecosystems is fundamentally different from that in wilderness. Designer ecosystems should increase perceived value of nature. But people have less contact with nature and therefore less personal familiarity with it.

Emphasis on preservation of local knowledge for ecosystem management, and innovation of new ways of managing ecosystems

Loss of many indigenous knowledge systems; emphasis on security inhibits innovation in ecosystem management; ecotourism is less safe in the developing countries. Especially in industrialized countries, people have less contact with nature and therefore less personal familiarity with it. There is an increase in fundamentalism with respect to spiritual and religious values.

Loss of some indigenous knowledge systems. People have less contact with nature and therefore less personal familiarity with it.

Comment on Cultural ES

+1+1+1+1-1-100Educational values

00+1+1-1-1-10Knowledge systems (diversity and memory)

-1-1+1+1-1000Spiritual and religious values

-1-1+1+1-1-1-1-1Cultural diversity

Developing Countries

Industrialized Countries







TechnoGardenAdapting MosaicOrder from StrengthGlobal OrchestrationEcosystem Service

5. Results


Main conclusions from scenario study

& Pressures on ecosystems likely to increase (greater demand for provisioning services)& Big 5 of ecological pressures (global view)

& Land use change& Climate change& N-loading& Water stress& Invasive species

& Pressures accumulate in Sub-Saharah Africa, Middle East and South Asia (incl. dryland systems)

& Services can also improve, given a right combination of policies and measures

& Severe degradation of ES can threaten MDGs


Scenario processes are time-consuming

1.5 years 0.5 years

1.5 years


Contents




Purpose of IPCC SRES (published in 2000)

! Input into climate models! Reasonable range of GHG emissions; all sources and gasses and long-term

! Basis on mitigation analysis! Good description of the energy system, its socio-economic context and GHG

emissions in long and medium term! Basis for adaptation analysis

! See climate + good description of socio-economic developments! Challenge long-term thinking of policy-makers

! quantitative information, but also easy to understand scenarios with leveragepoints; possibly extreme cases

Drivers


A1

B1

A2

B2

Economic

Environmental

Global Regional

Population

Econ

omy

Tech

nolo

gy Energy

(Land-use)

Agriculture

D r i v i n g F o r c e sNakicenovic et al., 2000

Scenario framework


Translation into information ondrivers by 6 modelling teams

Globalmarket

Safe region

Global sustainability

Sustainable region

Parallel quantification by:AIM (Japan)MESSAGE (Austria)IMAGE (Netherlands)MiniCam (USA)MARIA (Japan)ASF (Japan)

1 model is market


Emissions

Emissions expected to increase – but may level off or even decline in the second half of the century;Very different storylines may lead to similar emission pathways


Source: IPCC (2001)

Radiative forcing (Wm-2)

Global mean temperature change (°C)

Global mean sea-level rise (m)

Used in chain of “IPCC models”


IPCC, 2007

Multi-model global averages and uncertainties of surface warming (w.r.t. 1980–1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1.

2 degree target


HadCM3-derived mean annual temperature change (ºC) under A2-forcing

Source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre.

2041-2070 2071-2100


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"2oC target corresponds to around 400-450 ppm CO2 eq. (80-50% probability). "Corresponds to a 50% emission reduction in 2050

Van Vuuren et al. (2008). Temperature increase of 21st scenarios. PNAS. 105. 40. 15258–15262

Also basis of studies looking into mitigation


Evaluation of IPCC scenarios (DvV)

Positive examples:! IPCC AR4 clearly contributed to Climate Change

awareness raising! G8 does directly refer to IPCC analysis! Climate Policy in Netherlands directly related to IPCC

! IPCC scenario approach has been coupled intovarious other assessment exercises:! Millennium Ecosystem Assessment! Netherlands Sustainability Outlook! ….

! Many scientific papers based on SRES


Negative examples:

! Storylines mostly ignored – scenarios simplybecome lines

! Policy-makers in Netherlands seem to prefer onescenario (ToR Netherlands update of IPCC-SRES: only 1 scenario!)

! Scenario analysis benefits from interaction withusers; but in IPCC scenarios play different roles and for many users (more product than process)



! Scenarios used strategically! Environmental NGO strongly formulated critique against

B1;! No real ‘surprice’ scenarios… but questionable

whether this will be well interpreted.



New IPCC scenariosSRES

SRES

Scenario range has broadened and changedscope (from baseline to mitigation)


SRES-2Mitigation scenarios(not only baselines)

Community effort (notIPCC orchestrated)

Different process

New IPCC scenarios


New IPCC scenarios


Representative emission pathways

Table 1.1: Overview of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Description1 Publication – IA Model RCP8.5 Rising radiative forcing pathway leading to 8.5 W/m2

in 2100. Riahi et al. (2007) – MESSAGE

RCP6 Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 6 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100

Fujino et al. (2006) and Hijioka et al. (2008) – AIM

RCP4.5 Stabilization without overshoot pathway to 4.5 W/m2 at stabilization after 2100

Clarke et al. (2007) – MiniCAM

RCP3-PD2 Peak in radiative forcing at ~ 3 W/m2 before 2100 and decline

van Vuuren et al. (2006, 2007) – IMAGE

All selected from existing literature(but slightly updated)

Span a wide range of different possible futures and trajectoryshapes.


"1. Emission scenarios & harmonisation"2. Land use scenarios & harmonisation"3. 2300 extensions

Handshake activities


RCP Database RCP Database

Native (raw) data from all 4 RCPs


Thank you for your attention

For further information: [email protected]

Documents

Scenarios - PIK Research Portal · scenario -- and a description of the state of things at that time. 3. A geographic coverage– the spatial coverage of the scenarios – city, country,