Scenario Planning for Climate Resilience

Margaret Robertson, ASLA

Lane Community College

Eugene, Oregon

1

Lane Community College

2

• Southern Willamette Valley

• Past: timber, farming

Present: education, services,

manufacturing

Future: ?

Climate

Change

3

T r b l n

a h a e d

u u e c e

Climate Action Plan

4

Greenhouse Gas

Inventory

US

DO

E/E

ER

E

-- done

-- in progress

Planning for Uncertainty

You are here

?

Today

Now, how can we include everyone?

• Critical mass = 15-20% of group

cultural change

Library of Congress

“None of us is

as smart as all

of us”

Popular slogan from

suggestion boxes of 1940s

Scenarios

• Plausible what-if stories

• Fictional but based on data

Scenario planning

Identify

driving

forces

Sort

critical

forces

Create

plausible

scenarios

Work

backward –

strategies

1.Brainstorm and identify driving forces

• Society

• Technology

• Environment

• Economics

• Politics

Categories (STEEP):

= Triple Bottom Line:

Environment, Economics, Equity,

+ political and technology factors

Lane Community College

Preliminary exercise

2.Rank the driving forces

• Factors with greatest impact

• Factors with greatest uncertainty

IPCC

3.Group and cluster the driving forces

• Along a spectrum

• Or opposite ends of axes

Drivers

Clustering –

Drivers and values

Scenarios

Ma

ine

Dep

t. o

f T

ran

sp

ort

atio

n

4.Create plausible stories about the future

• 4-6 scenarios

• Give them vivid, memorable names

Names:

descriptive,

vivid,

memorable

UN Millennium

Ecosystem

Assessment

Valley Futures Project, 2005

Developed by citizens

• Write detailed stories

• Describe in as much

detail as possible

California Central Valley

scenarios

6.Rehearse the future

• Prepare for instability

• Work towards the future we most desire

7. Select indicators

• Small details – indicators of each scenario

• Prepare for each possible future

Goals

Resilient master plan

• Right people

• At the right times

Whole campus engaged

Energized population

Stakeholder ownership

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Outcomes: