Scenario Planning at TfL: Quantifying Uncertainty

Simon Nielsen Head of Strategic AnalysisTransport for London

Scenario Planning at TfL: Quantifying Uncertainty

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Strategic Analysis

Strategic Analysis

Spatial Planning

Projects

Partnerships

Transport Strategy

City PlanningTfL

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Past trends

Future forecasts

Strategic Analysis – analysing past trends to inform future forecasts

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Tomorrow, another yesterday?

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The wellbeing of a turkey

Days50 100 1500

Source: Nicholas Taleb / Bertrand Russell


Days50 100 1500



Days50 100 1500


Christmas

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The past doesn’t always predict the future

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There are signs of change...

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95

100

105

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115

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130In

dex:

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0 =

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All trips made in London London daytime population

Economic uncertainty

Travel behaviour change

New business models

A ‘perfect storm’

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In the past, we have used sensitivity tests

2011: 25 million trips

2031: 30 million trips

‘Low car’

‘High car’

‘High car’ and ‘low car’ scenarios

A. Spatial radical changeLand use patterns change

C. Global economic slowdownFall in population and employment & changing

nature of growth

D. Technology radical changeAutonomous vehicles, behavioural change, maximising network

B. Economic radical changeStructural change in the economy

Core reference Case (GLA central case &standard economic

assumptions)

Sensitivity 2 Low growth

Low population, employment and economic

growth

Sensitivity 4 Reduction in discretionary

travel

Sensitivity 1 High population, employment &

economic growth

Sensitivity 3aNo decline in car ownership

Sensitivity 3bFuel price increases

Radical Change

Sensitivity

Core Ref Case

The ‘wheel of uncertainty’

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A Scenario Planning approach takes into account multiple intersecting uncertainties

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Aim: Challenge our assumptions about the future and help us to embrace uncertainty in our plans

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Scoping

Factor research

Interviews

Workshops

Quantification

Scenario planning approach

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Scoping

Factor research

Interviews

Workshops

Quantification


Contextual Environment

Transactional Environment

GLA Group

DfT

Boroughs

Network Rail

Residents

Data users

Private transport operatorsSuppliers

Developers

Emergency services

Freightoperators

Unions

Geopolitics

Other European

Cities

MPs/ Councillors

Academics

Lobby/ Interest groupsInternational

finance

Aviation

Demographics

Health

Climate Legalisation

EnvironmentSocial values

Tourism

Landowners

Technology

Immigration Macroeconomics

EnergyTrade

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TfL’s wider context

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Scoping

Factor research

Interviews

Workshops

Quantification


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Freight & servicing

Disposable income

Attitudesto

environment

London’s place in

the world

Ways of working

Living in London

Emerging Business models

London’s place in the UK

Culture and

values

The Environment

DevolutionRegional funding

Domestic migration

National inequalities

Perceptions of safety and crime

Connectivity

24/7 City

London’s workforce

Gig economy

Employment sectors

Skills

Redistributive policy

Taxation

Flexible working

Daytimepopulation

Transportcosts

Employment agglomeration

Employment rate

Artificial intelligence

Greenhousegas

emissions

Climate change

Air quality

Majorcatastrophe Extreme

weather

Water security

Energy resources

Agriculture

Electrification

Biodiversity

Environmental regulation

Waste

National borders

Productivity

Economic growth

Geopoliticaltensions

Balance of Trade Trade

warsCyber security

Global financial

crisis

Global City

status

Air travel

Immigration

Attitudesto automation

Sharing culture

Attitudesto tech

Data protection

Foodculture

Shoppingculture

Online deliveries

Leisuretime

IdentitySocial

interaction

Social concerns

Internet of things

Demandresponsive

transit

Customerinformation

Automation

High Speed

rail

Privatisation

Open data

UnmannedArial

Vehicles

Micro mobility

Regulation

Ride hailing

Population growth

Ageing society

Accessibility

Physical activity

Age mix

Cost of living

Family structure

Quality of life

Social inequality

City structure

Frequency of travel

Mental health

Social disorder

Congestion

Crowding Health

Planning framework

Housingsupply

Household tenure

Emerging trends

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Scoping

Factor research

Interviews

Workshops

Quantification


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Interviewing decision makers

” ” ��

'Automation increases the utility of the city for its citizens

because it’s not so congested anymore. There’s more space for business to be done and it’s also a more pleasant space to be in'

'While public transport authorities have been somewhat stuck in their thinking, private operators have begun to fill in the gaps'

Interviewing decision makers

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Scoping

Factor research

Interviews

Workshops

Quantification

Scenario Planning approach

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Workshops

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Scoping

Factor research

Interviews

Workshops

Quantification

Scenario Planning approach

New modelling approaches

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Outcome: 3 stories about the future of travel in London

Innovating London:

The story of London re‐inventing itself as a young, urban innovator, where technology changes how people live and work, but leaves some behind

Rebalancing London:

The story of a more equal but ageing society with lower economic growth, that focuses on self‐sufficiency and liveability as world power moves East

Accelerating London:

The story of an ever‐growing, expanding London which acts as the beating heart of the world financial system, but struggles to deliver high quality of life for all

3 Stories about the future

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Each scenario has distinct implications for travel in London

Travel Implications

Innovating London

Less crowding and congestion

Rebalancing London

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Travel Implications

Shorter trips in local area

walking and cycling more attractive

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Travel Implications

High density living increases potential for

public transport

High pressure on radial links into central London

Accelerating London

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Our plans must be robust to a range of different futures

Major infrastructure projects

Corporate strategy

Mayor’s Transport Strategy policies

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Using the scenarios

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Using the scenarios

a. Reconsider This scheme only meets our objective in our assumed future. Look at other options that meet our objectives in an uncertain future.

c. ProceedThis strategy meets our objective in the majority of scenarios. Proceed but keep scenarios in mind in strategy development.

b. AdjustThis policy doesn’t meet our objective in some of our scenarios. Change the policy to make it work in more scenarios.

• Major Scheme• Transport policy• Corporate strategy

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Plans Scenario test

Outcome Action

Innovating London

Assumedfuture

Rebalancing London

Accelerating London

Objective

Contact

Simon [email protected]

Documents

Scenario Planning at TfL: Quantifying Uncertainty