SCEC Annual Meeting - ITR 09/17/02 1
Numerical Modeling Using Finite Difference Techniques
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Modeling of Wave Propagation and Ground Motion
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M7.3 1992 LandersM6.7 1994 Northridge
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When: 28 June 1992Where: Mojave DesertDamage: $56 million Deaths: 1Injured: >400
1992 Landers
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1994 Northridge
When: 17 Jan 1994Where: San Fernando ValleyDamage: $20 billion Deaths: 57Injured: >9000
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Objective:
Mitigate loss of life and property in future large events
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Subsurface Model
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M7.5 San Andreasfrom south-east
Fault-parallel
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M7.5 San Andreasfrom north-west
Fault-parallel
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3D/1D peak velocity ratios
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Validation: 1994 Northridge
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• Wavefield Separation
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Modeling of Earthquake Rupture Dynamics
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Dynamic Rupture From Trial-and-Error Finite-Difference Modeling
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Inverted (Trial-and-
Error) Dynamic Radiation
Versus Data
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Modeling of Stress Transfer/Triggering
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Static
Coulomb Failure Stresses
f
among others,
Das & Scholz, 1981
Harris et al., 1991
Stein, 1999
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However:
f does not explain all observations
e.g.,
• 1943 North Anatolian Fault event
• More aftershocks in direction of rupture
propagation (for example, 1992 Landers)
• Sometimes aftershocks in the stress shadow
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Dynamic
Coulomb Failure Stresses
f(t)
Kilb et al., 2002
Kilb, 2003
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Illustration of f(t)
North Anatolian Fault 1944 Event
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Components of f(t)
s(t)
n(t)
f(t)
f(t) peak[f(t)]
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Effect of Rupture Direction
Toward
the West
Bi-lateral
Toward
the East
peak[f(t)]f(t)
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Effect of Rupture Velocity
Sub-shear
Super-shear
f(t) peakf(t)]
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North-Anatolian Fault, Turkey
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West-ward propagating series of events on the North Anatolian Fault 1939-1999
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North Anatolian Fault Sequence
1939-1999
300 km
N
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Seismic Exploration
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