SB 375 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets and Program Performance Reporting

Public Workshops

Sacramento

February 6, 2018

Los Angeles

February 5, 2018

Fresno

January 30, 2018

San Diego

February 13, 2018

Presentation Overview SB 375 target update Update to SB 375 program guidelines Reporting and tracking progress Questions, discussion, and public comment

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Regional Transportation Plans and Sustainable Communities

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California’s MPOs develop Sustainable Communities Strategies to meet region-specific GHG targets set by CARB

CARB must review plan GHG quantification once adopted

Original targets adopted in 2010; CARB must update targets every 8 years

Over 20 SCSs reviewed to date

SB 375 Targets

SB 375: Improving People’s Everyday Transportation OptionsFocus on policies and investments that bring people and destinations close together, with alternative and convenient ways to get around.

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Types of Policies and Investments

Land Use

Transportation

Transportation Demand Management

Transportation Systems Management

Local and Regional Pricing Strategies

Vehicle Technology/Enhanced Mobility

Target Update Considerations

Updated top-down analysis of climate and air quality needs

MPO recommendations Latest changes to State law and program

implementation resources Public process feedback Lessons learned to date from program

implementation

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13%18% 19%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2010 Targets Adopted SCSPerformance

Staff Proposed Target(Revised)

GH

G R

EDU

CTI

ON

S R

ELAT

IVE

TO

2005

October and Revised Staff Proposal Proposed higher 2035 targets for most regions Target framework and evaluation process changes

Identify specific measures MPOs implement

Measures tracked with regular progress reports

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Scoping Plan Scenario

SB 375

New State and Local Strategies

Feedback Received on Staff ProposalDesire for a new path forward that: Addresses challenges with current target

framework and the use of modeling as a primary means of evaluation

Added focus on local and regional land use and transportation policies and investments

Ensures MPOs and their local and regional stakeholders continue to innovate and aspire to do more

Enhances implementation and tracking tools

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Proposed Path Forward

Adjust target framework and evaluation process to focus on land use and transportation policy and investments, and changes between plans

Incorporate added reporting and tracking of investments, project performance, and implementation efforts

Adjust 2035 targets to reflect updated information and stakeholder comments

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Big Four MPO 2035 Targets10

** Current SCS Performance as reflected with updated modeling results

MPOCurrently Adopted

Target

Current SCSAnticipated

Performance

CARB Revised Proposed

Target% GHG Reduction Per Capita (Compared to 2005)

MTC/ABAG -15% -15.5%* -19%SACOG -16% -16% -18 to -19%SANDAG -13% -18%** -19%SCAG -13% -18% -19%

* SCS adopted but not yet evaluated by CARB

San Joaquin Valley MPO 2035 Targets11

* Current SCS Anticipated Performance as reflected with updated modeling results

MPO

Currently Adopted Target

Current SCS Anticipated

Performance*

CARB Proposed Target

% GHG Reduction Per Capita (Compared to 2005)

Fresno COG

-10%

-10% -13%

Kern COG -13% -15%

Kings CAG -12% -13%

Madera CTC -15% -16%

Merced CAG -12.7%** -14%

San Joaquin COG -14% -16%

Stanislaus COG -14% -16%

Tulare CAG -15% -16%

** SCS adopted but not yet evaluated by CARB

Six Remaining MPO 2035 Targets12

MPO

Currently Adopted Target

Current SCS Anticipated

Performance

CARB Proposed Target

% GHG Reduction Per Capita (Compared to 2005)

AMBAG -5% -6% -6%

Butte CAG 1% -7% -7%

San Luis Obispo COG -8% -10.9% -11%

Santa Barbara CAG 0% -17% -17%

Shasta RTA 0% -0.5% -4%

Tahoe MPO -5% -5%* -5%

* SCS adopted but not yet evaluated by CARB

Next Steps13

Event/Milestone Date

CARB Target Update Workshops January – February 2018

CARB Board Hearing on Target Update March 22-23, 2018

CARB SB 375 Program Guidelines Update Draft anticipated Summer 2018

CARB SB 150 Regional Sustainable Communities Progress Report

By September 1, 2018, and every four years thereafter; Regular reporting on SCS progress to the Board

Guidelines for SCS Review

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Current SCS Review Methodology and Lessons Learned

Focus on modeling tools and technical aspects of GHG quantification

Some strategies not captured in modeling tools, require off-model calculation methods

Difficult to distinguish impacts of regional SCS strategies from other factors

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Focus on Emissions Reductions Attributable to SCS Strategies

Develop a method to distinguish impact of SCS strategies from modeling assumptions

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Demographics

Price of Fuel

Socioeconomic Factors

Land Use Strategies

Transportation Strategies

% P

er C

apita

GH

G R

educ

tion

from

200

5

MPO Target

Need for an Update to SCS Review Guidelines Establish consistency among key model

inputs and assumptions Specify procedures of sensitivity tests based

on how strategies are represented Provide guidance on off-model strategies Additional reporting on SCS strategy

assumptions

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Next Steps: Update to SB 375 Program Guidelines

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Event/Milestone Date1st Public Workshop Spring 2018Draft Guidelines for SCS Review

Early Summer 2018

2nd Public Workshop Early Summer 2018Final Guidelines for SCS Review

Late Summer 2018

Reporting and Tracking SB 375 Implementation

SB 150 (Allen) Tracking SCS Implementation

GHG target achievement

Metrics for the strategies used to meet the targets

Best practices

Challenges

The effect of state policies and funding

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VMT/capita is going up21

Source: Highway Performance Monitoring System, CalTrans

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23.5

24

24.5

25

25.5

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

VMT

per c

apita

(mile

s)VMT per capita

Focus Areas

1. LAND USE: Compact, infill, transit-oriented and transit-ready growth aligned with regional SCSs

5. INCENTIVES: Users' prices that reflect the true costs of road infrastructure and congestion and rewarding beneficial behavior

2. AFFORDABLE HOMES FOR ALL: Addressing the affordable housing shortage and the displacement that are forcing people to live further from jobs and schools

6. INNOVATIVE MOBILITY SOLUTIONS: Transportation Network Companies and shared mobility options that support pooling, public transit, and active travel

3. CLEAN TRANSPORTATION CHOICES:Transportation networks that make clean transportation choices convenient, particularly for under-served communities

7. STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT: SCS/RTP planning processes that engage public stakeholders to shape policy in meaningful ways

4. HEALTHY COMMUNITIES: Safe and convenient active transportation options and fewer pollution hotspots, especially in under-served or vulnerable communities

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People are driving to work as much as ever

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Source: American Community Survey

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Single Occupancy Commute Mode Share (%)

Transit ridership is going down24

Source: National Transit Database andCalifornia Department of Finance

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Popu

latio

n

Milli

ons

Annu

al R

ider

ship

(trip

s)

Milli

ons

Statewide Transit Ridership and Population

Transit Ridership Population

Reversing trend on farmland conversion for urban purposes

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Source: California Department of Conservation and Department of Finance

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

New

urb

aniz

ed fa

rmla

nd p

er n

ew

popu

latio

n (a

cre/

pers

on)

Statewide New Urbanized Farmland

Increasing share of multi-family housing, yet housing crisis persists

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Source: California Department of Finance

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

% o

f SF

and

MF

new

hom

esNew Home Type

Single Family Home Multi Family Home

Closing the Gap: Enhancing Tools and Implementation Resources Implementation of recent SB 1 transportation bill

and housing bills Policies to expand pooling opportunities with

transportation network companies and connected autonomous vehicles

Environmental performance metrics for transportation project selection

Pricing tools for managing vehicle activity impacts and generating funds for sustainable transportation solutions

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Thank youQuestions, Discussion, and Public Comment

SB 375 Staff Contacts: Heather King, AICPheather.king@arb.ca.gov

Jin Miao, P.E.Jin.qiu@arb.ca.gov

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