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Saying What We, As Meteorologists, Really Mean
A Winter Storm Case StudyAnd More
H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMSHow The Weatherworks, Naples, FL
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And this doesn’t even begin to address:
-- how overcast cirrostratus is called FAIR to the public
and
-- how some news reporters and anchors treat weather science.
Consider Savannah Guthrie on the TODAY Show (Oct. 16. 2015), discussing the flash flooding that occurred in southern California a day earlier.
“…the rains came out of nowhere…”
This is yet another “struck without warning” or
“worst storm ever” event.
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The new first law ofmeteorology:
The precipitation has to end somewhere!
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Severe Weather --------- 25 mile rule
Hurricanes --------- “Cone of Uncertainty”
Winter Storms --------- Probabilities
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Severe Weather --------- 25-mile rule
Hurricanes --------- “Cone of Uncertainty”
Winter Storms --------- Probabilities
WHY NOT a “25-mile” or “50-mile” rule for winter storms?
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Severe Weather --------- 25-mile rule
Hurricanes --------- “Cone of Uncertainty”
Winter Storms --------- Probabilities
WHY NOT a statement or headline abouta “25-mile” +/- rule?
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Severe Weather --------- 25 mile rule
Hurricanes --------- “Cone of Uncertainty”
Winter Storms --------- Probabilities
WHY NOT a statement such as, “a very large snowfall gradient is expected on the west
side of the storm. While current forecasts callfor 15 to 20 inches of snow, amounts could be…
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Compare what we, as meteorologists, do compared to the current educational system.
In education, tests drive learning to the point thatlearning isn’t happening in many places.
In meteorology, will verification drive forecasts tothe point that information given to the public isn’tinformative?
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Stay tuned….details at 6, 10 and 11,
after I continue work on this topic and
discuss with broadcasters, NWS forecasters
and others at NWS.
Saying What We, As Meteorologists, Really Mean
A Winter Storm Case Study And More
H. Michael Mogil, CCM, CBM, DMSHow The Weatherworks, Naples, FL
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