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Saving and Investment
Chapter 6
2
Consumption and GDP in the United StatesPanel A
Per
cen
tage
dev
iati
on
from
tre
nd
-20
-10
0
10
20
Time1955’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90
GDP ConsumptionFigure 6.1A
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
3
Investment and GDP in the United StatesPanel B
Per
cen
tage
dev
iati
on
from
tre
nd
-20
-10
0
10
20
Time1955 ’60 ’65 ’70 ’75 ’80 ’85 ’90
GDP InvestmentFigure 6.1B
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
4
How Smooth is Consumption?
GDP Consumption Investment
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation relative to GDP
2.58 2.58 2.58
1.00 0.76 3.34
Table 6.1©1999 South-Western College Publishing
5
Investment ConsumptionCurrent Income
Fu
ture
In
com
e
E
O
D
A
The Intertemporal Production Possibilities Set
Figure 6.2
B
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
6
InvestmentI (Investment today)
Y (
Val
ue
of c
omm
odit
ies
pro
du
ced
tom
orro
w)
OI1
Maximizing Profits
321
Figure 6.3
Y1
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
7
I (Investment)
Y (
Ou
tpu
t)
O IA
Panel A
YA
A
Slope (1 + rA)
Figure 6.4A
A
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
Deriving the Investment Demand Curve
8I (Investment)
Y (
Ou
tpu
t)
O IB
Panel B
B
YB B
Slope (1 + rB)
Figure 6.4B
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
Deriving the Investment Demand Curve
9I (Investment)
r (R
eal e
stat
e in
tere
st)
0 IA
Panel C
rA
rB
Investment demand curve
Figure 6.4C
IB
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
Deriving the Investment Demand Curve
10
Fu
ture
con
sum
pti
on
Present consumption
Consumption Saving(Y1 - C1)
C2
Y2
C1 Y1
A
E
Maximizing Utility Over Time
Figure 6.5
U1
U2
U3
(1+r)
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
11
Fu
ture
con
sum
pti
on
Present consumption
Y2
Y1SA
AE
Slope (1 + rA)
Panel ADeriving the Saving Supply Curve
Figure 6.6A©1999 South-Western College Publishing
12
Fu
ture
con
sum
pti
on
Present consumption
Y2
Y1SB
B
ESlope (1 + rB)
Panel B
Figure 6.6B©1999 South-Western College Publishing
Deriving the Saving Supply Curve
13
Saving
Panel Cr
(Rea
l in
tere
st r
ate)
rA
rB
SA SB0Figure 6.6C
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
Deriving the Saving Supply Curve
14Saving and investment
Saving and Investment in a Closed Economyr
(Rea
l in
tere
st r
ate)
r1
rE
S1
0
Figure 6.7
IE = SE
I1
Savingsupply curve
Investment demand curve
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
15Investment
Ou
tpu
t
O I1(r1)
Panel A
Y2
Y1
Slope (1 + r1)
Figure 6.8A
I2(r1)
Production function2
Production function1
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
Productivity and the Investment Demand Curve
16Saving and investment
Productivity and Investment DemandPanel B
r (R
eal i
nte
rest
rat
e)
r1
r2
0
Figure 6.8B
I1
Savingsupply curve
Investment demand curve2
I2
Investment demand curve1
(r1) (r2) I1 (r1)
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
17Saving and investment
Saving and the Baby BoomPanel A
r (R
eal i
nte
rest
rat
e)
r2
r1
0
Box 6.2A
I1
Saving supplyin 1939
Investment demand
I2
Saving supply in 1970
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
18Saving and investment
Saving and the Baby BoomPanel B
r (R
eal i
nte
rest
rat
e)
r2
r1
0
Box 6.2B
I1
Saving supply curve in 2020
Investment demand curve
I2
Saving supply curve in 1990
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
19
Government Debt and Pension Liabilities as Percent of GDP in 1990
Canada
Germany
52 121
22 157
Table 6.3
Net Conventional Debt
Net Pension Liabilities
Italy
United Kingdom
United States
100
27
35
259
156
90
Source: Max Alier, Essays on pension reform, Ph.D. thesis, UCLA, 1997.
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
20
Domestic Saving and investment
Saving and Investment in an Open EconomyPanel A
r (R
eal i
nte
rest
rat
e)
r1
r2
I2TOT
0
Figure 6.9A
I1TOT
Savingsupply curve
Investmentdemand curve
S1TOT S2
TOT
NB1 > 0
NB2 < 0
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
21
Quantities of capital demanded and suppliedNB2 O NBE NB1
r (W
orld
rea
l in
tere
st r
ate)
rE
r1
r2
A
BC
World supply of capital to the U.S.
U.S. demand for capital from the world
Figure 6.9B©1999 South-Western College Publishing
Saving and Investment in an Open EconomyPanel B
22
Real interest rate Trade surplusBudget deficit
Budget Deficit and Trade SurplusPanel A
Per
cen
tage
of
GD
P
1970 ’73 ’76 ’79 ’82 ’85 ’88 ’91 ’94-6-4-2 0 2 4 6 810
Figure 6.10A
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
23Quantities of capital demanded and supplied
r(World real interest rate)
rA
rB
0
Figure 6.10B
World supply of capital to the U.S.
U.S. demand for capital2
NBA
U.S. demand for capital1
B
A
NBB
©1999 South-Western College Publishing
Panel B
END