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..
()
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;
(
);
.
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, (Z*(x0)).
().
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(Z(:)), S;
xS Z(x),
();
Z(x) ; ,
Z(xi): z(xi)=zi, i=1,,N.
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min)]()(*[ 00 xZxZVar(...))),(),...,(),(()(* 210 NxZxZxZFxZ
,
:
0 )}()(*{ xZxZE
(... - ,
Z(x)
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()
.
. ,
h.
,
.
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C(x,h)
C(x,h)= E{(Z(x)-m(x))(Z(x+h)-m(x+h))}
, :
12
2
( , ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
Var Z Z
E Z Z
x h x x h
x x h
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BLUE:
Best
Linear
Unbiased
Estimator
)()(* j
n
j
j xZxZ
1
0
min)()(* xZxZVar
0 )(*)( xZxZE
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:
1. E[Z(x+h)-Z(x)] = 0, x2. h:
2(h) = Var[Z(x+h)-Z(x)],
0111
mxxZxZxExZxZE
xn
i
i
xn
i
ii )()()()()()(*
)()(
11
)(
)(
xn
i
ix
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( )
01
( )
1
1
n x
j ij ij
n x
j
j
i=1,,n(x)
i
iiOK 0
2
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;
;
; ;
2{ *} { }
OKVar Z Var Z
2{ }OK Var Z
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Rhifcc
RhifR
h
R
hcc
h
,
,2
1
2
3
)(
0
3
0
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()
2 : ;
.
.
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)(
1
2)()(
)(2
1)(
h
hxxh
h
N
i
ii ZZN
N(h) h.
hb
w
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()
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h
h
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- B,
)()(
T
hBhh
hh
cossin
sincos0
01
m ax
m in
aa
-
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nugget
sill
Range 1 Range 2
(Sill)
(Nugget) (Range)
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( )*
0
1
( ) ( )n x
j j
j
Z x Z x
( )
0
1
( )
1
1
n x
j ij i
j
n x
j
j
i=1,,n(x)
i
iiOK 0
2
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;
(
);
(-);
( );
(
);
.
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)()()()( xyxaxaxm 10
)(
)()()(*xn
j
jj xZxxZ1
)(
)(
)(
)()()(
)(
)(,,)()()()()()(
xn
i
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i
i
xn
ijRjijRi
xyxyx
x
xnjxxCxyxxxxCx
1
1
110
1
1
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1,400,000 2, 400 .
(C) .
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= 0.874, RMSE = 3.13 = 0.984, RMSE = 1.19
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90Sr286
137Cs680
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1: 137Cs
( )
137Cs
( )
( )
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137Cs 10Ci/km2
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2: 90Sr
-
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-( )
*
1 1
( ) ( )n xK
i i
i
Z x Z x
K
)(
1
)(
1
* )()()()()(xn
j
jj
xn
i
ii
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2 U(x) V(x)
)(
1
)(
1
)(
1
)(
1
)(
1
)(
1
0
1
)(,...,1),,(),(),(
)(,...,1),,(),(),(
xn
i
i
xn
i
i
V
xn
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i
jUVVjiVijiUVi
U
xn
i
xn
i
jUUjiVUijiUi
V
U
U V
U V
b
a
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)(),()(),()()()(
1
)(
1
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U
xn
i iUVi
xn
i iUUiOCK
VU
-
-
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90Sr
(- )
90Sr
( -)
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-
3
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3:
( )
:
Kkz
zxI kjkj ,...,,otherwise
)z(xif,);( 1
0
1
0
0
I0
1
1
0
zk
Z
-
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:
);())(|;(*))(|;(* kikk zxInzxFnzxI
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:
629
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)(|)(,,)(Pr))(|,,,;,,,(
nzxZzxZ
nzzzxxxF
NN
NN
11
2121
-
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))(|;())(|;())(|;(
))(|,,;,,(
nzxFNnzxFNnzxF
nzzxxF
NNNN
NN
1111
11
21
-
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24
50.2
14.9?
24
50.2
14.9
24
50.2
14.935.2
?30.1
39.121.1
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: 5.32 110 1.46
2158 77 1.33
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+ :
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+
3D
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90Sr: 5
1, 5, 15 cm
90Sr: 20
10, 15, 30 m
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0.2 Ci/km2 : 1-2 cm0.5 i/km2 :
( 10 )
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;
.
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;
; ;
;
.
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( );
;
- ;
;
.
