Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be

8/14/2019 Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be

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Put the individual in climate context.


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HOW MUCH POWERDO I USE?


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Energy is measured in Joules (J)

Lifting an apple from

the ground to the

table. ~ 1 Joule


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40 apples per secondfrom the ground to the

table = 40 Watts.

Power is measured in Watts (W).1 Watt = 1 Joule / second


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Running this Apple laptop takes 40 Watts.


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Power, in Watts, is like an average.The average amount of energy, in Joules, you use each second.

So now you can add all these things.Yearly things + Monthly things + Daily things = your lifestyle in watts.

The Power of me:Calculating my energy consumption

168,207 kilometers

1 year

1 year

31,536,000 seconds

1.40 megajoules

1 kilometer 7,462

Joules

second=

=

7,462 Watts

122 kilowatt hours

1 month

1 month

2,952,000 seconds

3.6 megajoules

1 kilowatt hour170

Joules

second170 Watts

1 energy drink

1 day

1 day

86,400 seconds

7.84 megajoules

1 bottle90

Joules

second90 Watts=

If you do something yearly (like fly 105,000 miles), it contributes:

If you do something monthly (like your electricity bill), it contributes:

If you do something daily (like drink 1 Energy drink), it contributes:


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Think of your life in light bulbs....

A 12,000 Watt lifestyle is 120 x 100

watt light bulbs burning permanently.

100W

"Watts per always"


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Me


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7 000 000 000 People


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0 10 20 30 40 50

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 Qatar2 Iceland3 United Arab Emirates4 Bahrain5 Luxembourg6 Netherlands Antilles7 Kuwait8 Trinidad and Tobago9 Canada

10 United States11 Brunei Darussalam12 Finland13 Norway14 Sweden15 Australia

16 Belgium17 Saudi Arabia18 Singapore19 Gibraltar

20 Netherlands21 Oman22 France23 Russian Federation24 New Zealand25 Korea, Rep26 Czech Rep27 Germany28 Austria29 Japan30 United Kingdom31 Denmark32 Ireland33 Switzerland34 Estonia35 Turkmenistan36 Slovenia37 Slovakia38 Kazakhstan39 Cyprus40 Spain41 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya42 Israel43 Italy44 Ukraine45 Greece46 Belarus47 Lithuania48 South Africa49 Hungary50 Bulgaria

kilowatts

US Average

Global

Average

Per capita power use 2003


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0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 60000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

AveragePerPersonPowerinWatts

Population in Millions.

Asia (excluding middle east)

1450 Watts

Central America & the Carribean

1800 Watts

South America

1580 Watts

Middle-east & North Africa

2300 Watts

Europe

5400 Watts

north america

11400 Watts

Energy Use by Region

Power Watts/person


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Units shown in Terawatts (TW)

Energy production

Plants: 5.2

Tidal: 0.0005

Solar: 0.016

Wind: 0.06

Gas: 3.2 Coal: 3.6

Geothermal:

0.03

Nuclear: 0.37

Hydro: 0.36

Oil:5

18 TWHumanity


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0 10 20 30 40 50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 UNITED_STATES_OF_AMERICA

2 USSR3 CHINA_MAINLAND

4 GERMANY_COMBINE

5 JAPAN_COMBINE

6 UNITED_KINGDOM

7 YUGOSLAVIA_COMBINE

8 FRANCE_INCLUDING_MONACO

9 INDIA

10 CANADA

11 POLAND

12 RUSSIAN_FEDERATION

13 ITALY_INCLUDING_SAN_MARINO

14 SOUTH_AFRICA15 MEXICO

16 AUSTRALIA

17 CZECHOSLOVAKIA18 BELGIUM19 SPAIN20 BRAZIL21 REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA22 NETHERLANDS23 ISLAMIC_REPUBLIC_OF_IRAN24 SAUDI_ARABIA25 INDONESIA26 ROMANIA27 DEMOCRATIC_PEOPLES_REPUBLIC_OF_KOREA28 ARGENTINA29 VENEZUELA30 TURKEY31 UKRAINE32 TAIWAN

33 AUSTRIA34 SWEDEN35 HUNGARY36 THAILAND37 DENMARK38 ALGERIA39 BULGARIA40 EGYPT41 GREECE42 SWITZERLAND43 NIGERIA44 MALAYSIA45 FINLAND46 UNITED_ARAB_EMIRATES47 KAZAKHSTAN48 IRAQ

49 COLOMBIA50 PAKISTAN

gigametrict

onsofcarbon

Cumulative national CO2

emissions rom ossil-uel burning, ce-ment manuacture, and gas faring: 1751-2004


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Out of equilibrium

Atmosphereto Ocean2 GtC/year

Carbon toAtmosphere

8 GtC/year


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Atmospheric CO2

concentration.

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

CO2

Level(p

pm)

Year

Ice Core 20 year AverageLaw Dome Antarctica

Mauna Loa Direct MeasurementHawaii


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Temperature Changes around the worldin the last quarter of the 20th century

Trends in C per decade

-1 -0.8 +0.8-0.6 +0.6-0.4 +0.4-0.2 +0.20 +1


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The aesthetic choice... The design challenge...

??

??

?


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A1B

A1T

A1FI

A2

B1

B2

IS92a

Scenarios

21002000190018001700

-0.5

0.0

-1.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

10% Species Lost

Entire cities and countries lost to sea level

20-50% Species Lost

1-4 Billion people face water shortages

15-40% Species Lost

450ppm

2.0

Climate models:Physics and chemistry-based computer models of planet

TemperatureRise,

degrees

Celsius


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TemperatureRise,

degreesCelsius

15-40% Species Lost

10% Species Lost

1-4 Billion people face water shortages


20-50% Species Lost

450ppm

Scenarios:Guesses at humanity's reactions: "business as usual vs. change"

A1B

A1T

A1FI

A2

B1

B2

IS92a

Scenarios

21002000190018001700

-0.5

0.0

-1.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


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450ppm

A1B

A1T

A1FI

A2

B1

B2

IS92a

Scenarios

21002000190018001700

-0.5

0.0

-1.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

TemperatureRise,

degreesCelsius

10% Species Lost


20-50% Species Lost1-4 Billion people face water shortages

15-40% Species Lost2.0

Impact Studies:Ecosystem, geopolitical, and other impacts, as predicted by climate modelsand scenarios.

90% Coral Reefs Lost

Resource warsIRREVERSIBLE

FEEDBACKS


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650

550

450ppm CO2

(year2000) 368

Preindustrial 280

What if we choose?

+2oC


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Sources of renewable energy.

31 000 TWAtmosphericAbsorption

85 000 TW Surface Solar

62 TW Ocean surface waves

90 TW Photosynthesis

65 TW Land3 TW Coastal waves

7.2 TW Hydro Rivers

300 TW Hydro Clouds

25 TW Hydro Land

3600 TW Wind

41 000 TWEvaporation

38 000 TWLand & Water heating

3.5 TW Tidal

32 TW Geo thermal

25 TW Ocean

100 TW Ocean thermal gradient

16 TWGlobal consumption


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Units shown in Terawatts (TW)

2033 Energy Mix

Solar Thermal: 2

(carbon-free)

Biofuels: 0.5

Wind:2

Nuclear: 3

Geothermal 2

Photo VoltaicSolar 2

16 TW


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2 TW New Photo Voltaic

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100

m100

m10

0m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100

m

100

m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m100m 100m 100m

100

m

100

m

100

m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100m

100 m of solar cells

every second for the next

25 years. 15% efficiency,

good sitting.

1sec

.

PhotoVoltaic


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2 TW New Solar Thermal

50m

50m

50m

50m5

0m

50m

50m50

m5

0m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50

m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m50m 50m

50m 50

m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50m

50

m

25 years50 mof solar thermalmirrors every second for

the next 25 years. 30%

efficiency, well sited.

1sec

.

SolarThermal


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100m Diameter

100m

Diam

eter

100m

Dia

mete

r

100m

Diameter

100mD

iamet

er

100mDiameter

100mDiameter

100mDiameter

100mDiameter

100mD

iameter

12 3MW wind turbines in

great locations every hour.

Or one 100m diameter

turbine every 5 minutes

6min.

2 TW New Wind Wind


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SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI

1

8765432

1615141312109

23222120191817

30292827262524

31

SAT

March

3 TW New Nuclear

1x 3GW Nuclear plant every

week for the next 25 years.

Nuclear


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2 TW Geothermal

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI

1

8765432

1615141312109

23222120191817

30292827262524

31

SAT

March

3x 100MW

steam turbines

every day for

next 25 years.

Geothermal


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0.5 TW carbon (net zero) biofuels?.

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250

m125

0m12

50m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250

m

1250

m

1250

m

1250

m

1250

m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m1250m

1250m 1250m 1250m

1250

m

1250

m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250

m

1250

m

1250

m

1250

m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250m

1250 m or 1 olympic

swimming pool of algae

every second for the next25 years.

1sec

.

Biofuel

L d b t t d l d t i


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0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

RUS

CHN

CAN

USA

BRA

AUS

INDARG

KAZ

DZA

SDN

COD

SAU

MEX

IDNLBY

IRNMNG

PER

NER

TCD

AGO

MLI

ZAF

BOL

COL

MRT

ETH

EGY

NGA

TZA

VEN

NAM

MOZ

PAK

TUR

CHL

ZMB

MMR

AFG

SOM

CAF

MDG

UKR

KEN

BWA

FRA

YEM

THA

ESP

TKM

CMR

PNG

MAR

IRQUZB

SWE

GRL

PRY

ZWE

JPN

DEU

COG

MYS

VNM

CIVOMN

POL

NOR

FINPHL

ITAECU

BFA

NZL

ESH

GAB

GINGBR

LAO

ROM

GHA

BLR

UGA

GUY

SEN

KGZ

SYR

KHM

URY

SUR

TUN

NPL

TJKBGD

GRC

NICPRK

HND

BGR

BEN

CUB

GTM

YUG

ERI

ISLKOR

LBR

MWI

HUN

PRT

JOR

ARE

AUT

AZE

CZE

PAN

SLE

GEO

IRLLKA

LTULVAHRV

TGO

BIHCRI

DOM

SVK

BTN

DNK

EST

CHE

TWN

NLD

MDA

BEL

LSO

ARM

GNB

GNQ

SLB

HTI

ALB

BDI

MKD

RWA

DJI

BLZ

ISRSLV

SVN

FJIKWT

SWZ

TLSVUT

QAT

JAM

LBN

BHS

GMB

CYP

PRI

PSE

BRN

TTO

CPV

WSM

LUX

COM

MUS

HGK

STP

DMA

KIRTON

BHR

FSM

SGP

km

km

5TW Solar2TW Wind

1TW Hydro2TW Biofuels

Renewistan - 10TW

Land area by country represented as scaled stripes


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"The Game Plan" slideset release 1.01, March 21 2008 67

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Depression.

OilCrises.

Re

cession.

Sep.1

1.2

001.

US energy consumption (TeraWatts)


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2008

The year of 'peak waste'


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If the average Americanwere to leave home each

morning with a backpackfull of the fuel they need-ed for their day:

Oil = 31 kg, 67 lb.Coal = 29 kg, 63 lb.Gas = 6 kg, 12 lb.

11 400 Watts.


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What about products?


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Also contains per bottle

Plasticizers 43mg

Estrogen 0.12mg

Carcinogenic Dye 0.19mg

Safe daily values not yet established.

Consumption FactsContainer Mass 1.58oz (44.9g)

Components per container 3

Embodied Energy Per Container

Total 4,609,420 Joules

PETE 38.81g 3,962,400 Joules

HDPE 4.83g 497,500 Joules

Cellulosic 1.34g 149,520 Joules

Recycle rate 23%

Landfill rate 43%

Energy recovery rate 16%

Lost to environmental waste 18%

Personal Energy Footprint % Daily Value*Total 4.54%

Transport (avg.estimated) 0.69%

Manufacture 0.46%

Embodied Energy 2.67%

Refrigeration (avg.estimated) 0.71%

* Personal Energy Footprint is based on a recommended 2000

Watt lifestyle.

The average US consumer has a 11400 Watt lifestyle.

! Consuming this product daily is equivalent to increasing your

energy footprint by 90 Watts.


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+ 0.2 x TWy + 0.15 x TWy + 0.11 x TWy

There's a known and reasonably predictable amount of

carbon left to burn:

1 TWy = 1 Terawatt Year = 3.16 x 1019 Joules.

CO2

ppm

= CO2

ppm

future futurecoal oil gas


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1 Joule of fossil energy used produces 4.9x10 -21 ppm increase.

How many ppm to replace every gasoline car in the world (1bN) with a

1000kg electric vehicle? = 0.49 ppm

How many ppm for 250 million new green homes? = 8.9 ppm

How many ppm for installing :

5TW solar = 6.1 ppm3TW wind = 0.55 ppm

2TW geothermal = 0.49 ppm

So there is + 19 ppm right there. Scary.

Might be good to ask questions of form:

How many ppm for 6 bN new laptops? = 0.05 ppm

6 bN cellphones? = 0.03 ppm

6 bN 100 Watt lightbulbs burning for 1 year? = 0.2ppm


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And we will too.

The world demands more and more energy. Where will it come from? We at Chevron

are working to provide more of it, both responsibly and efficiently. And were developing

alternatives. But its just as important for all of us to do more with less.

Were doing it ourselves and enabling others. Our Chevron Energy Solutions

team is dedicated to helping others use less energy. In Colorado, weve

worked with the state to improve 20 state buildings. The extensive makeover

is expected to save more than $20 million over the next two decades.

Its just one of the hundreds of projects that will help businesses and

government organizations reduce their energy costs by over $1 billion.

Join us in one of t he most important efforts of our time using less.

Will you?

Learn more at will you join us.com.

CHEVRON, the CHEVRON HALLMARK, and HUMAN ENERGY are registered tradema rks of Chevron Intellectual Property LLC. 2008 Chevron Corporati on. All rights reserved.


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Documents

Saul Griffith: An Engineer's Approach To Climate. Working Backwards From Where We Want To Be