Upload
luann
View
40
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN SAB. MOVING FROM IFFA ESTIMATES TO THE AUTOMATIC ESTIMATOR. Richard Borneman - SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH NESDIS/SATELLITE SERVICES DIVISION [email protected] http://www.ssd.noaa.gov. PART 1. BACKGROUND ON SAB PRECIPITATION OPERATIONS. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN SAB
MOVING FROM IFFA ESTIMATES TO THE
AUTOMATIC ESTIMATOR
Richard Borneman- SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCHNESDIS/SATELLITE SERVICES [email protected]://www.ssd.noaa.gov
PART 1
BACKGROUND ON SAB PRECIPITATION OPERATIONS
• 1979 First Estimates
• 1983 - Fully Operational– using McIDAS system
– SPENES messages on AFOS
• 1990 - IFFA to Mainframe– much more data
• 1993 - Collocated with HPC into NPPU– better QPF support
• 1995 - Move to OS/2– faster operations
• 1996 - Estimate Graphics to WWW– SSD homepage
• 1997 - Orographic Correction added– for short-term estimates
• 1999 - Moved to Solaris Operating System– Y2K compliant
• 2000 - Combined IFFA/Auto-Estimator Operation
HISTORY OF IFFA/QPE OPERATION
HISTORY OF IFFA/QPE OPERATION
SPRING 2000
SAB begins using the automatic rainfall estimator (AE) for
precipitation operations
Satellite Analysis BranchPrecipitation Products/Services
Satellite Analysis BranchPrecipitation Products/Services
1. SPENES Flash Flood Guidance
2. Satellite Rainfall Estimates
3. Support HPC/NCEP
SPENES ContentsSPENES Contents
1. IFFA Estimates or Auto-Estimates (hourly rates 3-6 hour totals
24 hour totals)2. Satellite Analysis (satellite interpretation - SIM)
3. Nowcast and Satellite Trends
4. Additional Satellite Data In addition to GOES IR & Vis: -Microwave: SSM/I &AMSU (Rain Rate/PW) -GOES Sounder and Imager (PW & LI) -GOES Water Vapor Imagery
* Issued as needed - Using FF guidance and
meteorological judgement
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL DDHHMM;400,0920 400,0890 380,0890 380,0920;TTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 7/19/00 0300Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678VALUES ARE MAX OR SGFNT EST. NO OROGRAPHIC CORRECTION UNLESS NOTED.......EST'S FM:/GOES8-CNTRL AND E. U.S./GOES10-W. U.S... LATEST DATA USED: GOES-8 0245Z RB AUTO-ESTIMATOR 0230Z. LOCATION...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS .EVENT...COULD BE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH HEAVY SHOWERS EAST OF STLOUIS..INCRG MCS IS MOVG STDLY SEWD WHICH LIMITS AMTS BUT STILL VRY HVY RNSGIVING AMTS ESTD 2-3"/PST 2-3HRS. THERE WAS A MERGER OF SHWRS INTO TOWRN END OF THIS COMPLEX PST 1-2HRS WHICH ALSO ENHANCED THE RNS.VRY HI MSTR IS AVLBL FOR HVY RNS WITH PW/S ON 00Z RAOBS AND CURRENT GOESSOUNDER NR 2". STG MSTR CONVERGENCE MAX ALG E-W SFC FNT IS CNTRD E OFSTL HELPING TO FOCUS HVY RNS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTFM LST NIGHTS KS CONVECTGION MOVG INTO W IL. EVERYTHING MOVG RIGHT ALGSO XPECT BRF FF POTNL FM VRY HVY RATES SEWD INTO S IL/SW IND NEXT FEWHRS..AUTO ESTIMATES.... W IL COUNTIES... HRLY RATE TOTALS TIME MADISON MOVG OUT 2.0"-3.1" 2330-0230Z BOND 1.5-2.5"/HR UP TO 3.4" "....SEE GRAPHIC OF ESTIMATES FOR THIS EVENT ON INTERNET AT THE ADDRESSLISTED BELOW.......SEE HPC QPF GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS FOR FCST....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SSD/ML/pcpn-ndx.html [ONLINE SSD PRECIP PRODUCT INDEX] .NNNN
EXAMPLE OF SPENES WITH AUTO-ESTIMATES
PART 2
BACKGROUND ON AUTO-ESTIMATOR AND
EXAMPLES
9
Cloud Top Temperature/Rain Rate Curve for Auto-Estimator
ADDITONAL AE CORRECTIONS/ADJUSTMENTS• 15 min imagery
• Parallax (satellite viewing angle)
• Cloud growth/cloud top cooling and warming
• Moisture correction
• Orographic correction
• Warm cloud tops/ equilibrium level
• Radar reflectivity/ rain- no rain
AUTO-ESTIMATOR PRODUCTS
• Every Half Hour:– Instantaneous Rate– 1 hour totals– 3 hour totals
• Hourly:– 6 hour totals
• Daily (12Z):– 24 hour totals
WEB SITES FOR SATELLITE ESTIMATES
• SSD HOME PAGE– SAB OPERATIONAL PRODUCTS
• http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SSD/ML/pcpn-ndx.html– SPENES guidance message
– Very high resolution estimate graphics- accompany SPENES’s
• ORA FLASH FLOOD HOME PAGE– AUTO-ESTIMATOR PRODUCTS
• http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/arad/ht/ff/index.html– National products in real-time
– Higher resolution by U.S. quadrants
HOW TO USE AE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL• Short term maximums (1 to 6 hours)• For moderate/heavy convection (not for light
rains)• Use instantaneous product for very short term
heavy rains (1 hour or less)• Location may be off by 1 or 2 counties with strong
vertical wind shear (check against radar)• Looping of 1 and 3 hour totals good for trends and
movement
EXAMPLE
Auto-Estimates for July 8 – 9, 2000
Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota
6 hour Auto-Estimates
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL DDHHMM;470,0960 470,0890 440,0890 440,0960;
TTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 7/9/00 0447Z
THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS‑‑‑NPPU‑‑‑TEL.301‑763‑8678
VALUES ARE MAX OR SGFNT EST. NO OROGRAPHIC CORRECTION UNLESS NOTED...
....EST'S FM:/GOES8‑CNTRL AND E. U.S./GOES10‑W. U.S...
LATEST DATA USED: GOES‑8 0432Z CK
AUTOESTIMATOR 0400Z
.
LOCATION...MINNESOTA WISCONSIN
.
EVENT...LATEST CNVCTV TRENDS THRU 0432Z
.
REMARKS...BACK EDGE OF CNVTN HAS BEEN SLIPPING S OVER OTTER TAIL COUNTY/MN..
BUT REMAINS INTENSE WITH SOME BUILDING TWD THE SW. FURTHER EAST..CELL MERGERS
CONTINUE OVER TODD AND MORRISON COUNTIES. NO LET‑UP YET FOR PINE COUNTY.
INTENSE CELLS OVER S AITKIN/MILLE LAC/KANNEBEC COUNTIES ARE DIRFTING S. OVR
WI INTENSE CELL S OF EAU MOVG S.
.
AUTOESTIMATES... 6 HR TOTALS
MN COUNTIES... 22‑04Z
OTTER TAIL/TODD 2" (TOO LIGHT)
CROW WING/AITKIN 2.5"
MN/WI CONTIES...
PINE TO SAWYER 4‑5" MAX AMOUNTS
WI COUNTIES...
CHIPPEWA (N OF EAU) 2.5"
PRICE (W OF RHI) 2.7"
.
SEE GRAPHIC AT ADDRESS BELOW..NOTE..SOME OF THE AMOUNTS MAY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
...
...SEE HPC QPF GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS FOR FCST...
.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SSD/ML/pcpn‑ndx.html
[ONLINE SSD PRECIPITATION PRODUCT INDEX]
.
SPENES Message that
Was sent
24 hour Reports
CASE STUDY
EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
May 31, 2000
AUTO ESTIMATES
Vs.
IFFA ESTIMATES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL DDHHMM;415,0910 415,0900 420,0890 420,0910;TTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 5/31/00 1114ZTHE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678VALUES ARE MAX OR SGFNT EST. NO OROGRAPHIC CORRECTION UNLESS NOTED.......EST'S FM:/GOES8-CNTRL AND E. U.S./GOES10-W. U.S... LATEST DATA USED: GOES-8 1045Z KUSSELSON.LOCATION...EXT E IA/W CENTRAL IL....EVENT...REMAINS OF COLD TOP MCS PRODUCING HVY RAINS.REMARKS...MCS CONTINUES TO SHRINK EXT E IA/WESTERN AND CENTRAL IL...BUT STILL TRAINING ACTIVITY MUSCATINE/CEDAR IA INTO ROCK ISLAND COUNTY(IL)...GENERALLY CLOSE TO WHERE ESTIMATES HAVE REACHED NR 6.0" SINCE 0545Z. MOST OF THE FF THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN IL AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INCRG SE SD/NE NEB MOVES EASTWARD NEXT FEW HRS AND MOVESACROSS SW MN AND W/NW IA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA THIS MORNING FORADDITIONAL HVY RAIN POTENTIAL C IA...WHERE HVY AMOUNTS OCCURRED DURINGTHE NIGHT. .IFFA ESTIMATES...
W CENTRAL IL... TOTALS TIME S ROCK ISLAND 5.8" 0545-1045z N MERCER 5.0" " W HENRY 5.0" " NW KNOX 3.8" "SE IA... LOUISA/MUSCATINE 4.8" "
.
....SEE GRAPHIC OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES FOR PERIOD 0545-1045Z ON THEINTERNET AT ADDRESS BELOW.......SEE HPC QPF GRAPHICS AND DISCUSSIONS FOR FCST.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/SSD/ML/pcpn-ndx.html[ONLINE SSD PRECIPITATION PRODUCT INDEX].NNNN SPENES WHICH WAS SENT----BEFORE AE WAS OPERATIONAL
IFFA 24hr. Totals
AE 24hr. Totals
24 HOUR REPORTS
PART 3
USING AUTOMATIC SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL
BENEFITS OF USING AE FOR BOTH RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND SAB SPENES GUIDANCE
• More timely
• Greater coverage for whole U.S.
• Continuous coverage
• More frequent SPENES flash flood guidance
EXAMPLE OF IMPROVED SAB PRECIPITATION OPERATIONS
USING AUTO-ESTIMATOR (for first week-started June 12, 2000)
• MORE SPENES MESSAGES- 110 messages; second highest total in 10 years
• BETTER COVERAGE- 54 heavy rain systems for which messages were sent; highest weekly total
• INCREASED TIMELINESS- 21 minutes average time between satellite data and SPENES transmission (compared to 30 min for IFFA)
DEFICIENCIES OF AE ESTIMATES
• Heavy estimates cover too large of an area• Mislocation for shearing cold tops• Overestimates for longer term totals (mostly 24 hour)• Initial estimates low (first hour)• Overestimates for very cold cloud tops with much
cirrus debris• Not good for light amounts• Misses very small short-lived events• Despite auto-adjustment, warm tops often
underestimated.
PART 4
THE FUTURE
FUTURE AUTO-ESTIMATOR IMPROVEMENTS
• Available on AWIPS• Visible Imagery-mostly location of heaviest rains• AMSU/SSMI Microwave-calibrate rain rates• Rain Burst- increase amounts in first hour• Screen Out Lighter Amounts- decrease long-term
overestimates• GOES Multi-Spectral- rain/no-rain; better
amounts