Saskatchewan:Saskatchewan:

Not Just Your Parents’ Not Just Your Parents’ Prairie ProvincePrairie Province

Eric HoweEric HoweProfessor of EconomicsProfessor of Economics

University of SaskatchewanUniversity of Saskatchewan

www.northernimpaq.cawww.northernimpaq.ca

Four points:Four points:

Personal Saving Rates Show the Personal Saving Rates Show the Continuing Evolution of Continuing Evolution of Saskatchewan’s EconomySaskatchewan’s Economy

Saskatchewan will become more Saskatchewan will become more Aboriginal faster than many realizeAboriginal faster than many realize

Saskatchewan will become less Saskatchewan will become less Agricultural than many realizeAgricultural than many realize

Saskatchewan’s labour market will Saskatchewan’s labour market will become scarcely recognizablebecome scarcely recognizable

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

University of SaskatchewanUniversity of Saskatchewan

A Number of Governments and NGO’s A Number of Governments and NGO’s

A Number of CorporationsA Number of Corporations

My Economic Forecasting StudentsMy Economic Forecasting Students

Personal Saving Rates Show Personal Saving Rates Show The Continuing Evolution of The Continuing Evolution of Saskatchewan’s EconomySaskatchewan’s Economy

Saskatchewan will become Saskatchewan will become more Aboriginal faster than more Aboriginal faster than

most people realizemost people realize Aboriginal percentage of provincial Aboriginal percentage of provincial

populationpopulation

What proportion of our young What proportion of our young adults will be Aboriginal in adults will be Aboriginal in

2016?2016?

According to the Census of 2006, According to the Census of 2006, Aboriginal People made up 23% of Aboriginal People made up 23% of Saskatchewan’s population aged 10-19Saskatchewan’s population aged 10-19

By the Census of 2016, that cohort will By the Census of 2016, that cohort will be young adults, aged 20-29be young adults, aged 20-29

Will 23% of Saskatchewan’s young Will 23% of Saskatchewan’s young adults be Aboriginal in 2016?adults be Aboriginal in 2016?

You can make good You can make good arguments that the 23% arguments that the 23%

will decreasewill decrease

In-migrationIn-migration

Somewhat surprisingly, this argument is fairly weak even Somewhat surprisingly, this argument is fairly weak even with the boomwith the boom

You can make good You can make good arguments that the 23% arguments that the 23%

will increasewill increase23% is an underestimate23% is an underestimate

Registered Indians in SaskatchewanRegistered Indians in Saskatchewan

90,720 according to the 2006 Census90,720 according to the 2006 Census

123,017 according to the Indian Register123,017 according to the Indian Register

By 2016 the Saskatchewan labour-By 2016 the Saskatchewan labour-market will be fundamentally different market will be fundamentally different than today, lowering net migrationthan today, lowering net migration

By 2016, 23% of By 2016, 23% of Saskatchewan’s young adults Saskatchewan’s young adults

will be Aboriginalwill be AboriginalThat is about one in fourThat is about one in four

2016 is not far away2016 is not far away

If we lose the current generation of If we lose the current generation of Aboriginal Youth the result will be social Aboriginal Youth the result will be social turmoil like Saskatchewan hasn’t turmoil like Saskatchewan hasn’t experienced since the Great Depression experienced since the Great Depression

Gentle question forGentle question forAboriginal-Majority-SkepticsAboriginal-Majority-Skeptics

2001 Census: Aboriginal females made 2001 Census: Aboriginal females made up 15% of the female population of up 15% of the female population of childbearing age in our provincechildbearing age in our province

In the subsequent five years, 29% of In the subsequent five years, 29% of provincial babies were Aboriginalprovincial babies were Aboriginal

These babies will grow up and begin to These babies will grow up and begin to have their own babies by the 2021 have their own babies by the 2021 CensusCensus

Fill-in-the-blank question for Fill-in-the-blank question for Aboriginal-Majority-SkepticsAboriginal-Majority-Skeptics

15 is to 29 as 29 is to ____15 is to 29 as 29 is to ____

Saskatchewan employment will Saskatchewan employment will become less agriculturalbecome less agricultural

Saskatchewan employment will Saskatchewan employment will become less agriculturalbecome less agricultural

Saskatchewan employment will Saskatchewan employment will become less agriculturalbecome less agricultural

Saskatchewan income cannot Saskatchewan income cannot become much less agriculturalbecome much less agricultural

Saskatchewan’s labour market Saskatchewan’s labour market will become scarcely will become scarcely

recognizablerecognizable

The labour market had better become The labour market had better become increasingly Aboriginalincreasingly Aboriginal

Provincial employment is about to stop Provincial employment is about to stop growing, except maybe in Reginagrowing, except maybe in Regina

The labour market is becoming The labour market is becoming increasingly Aboriginalincreasingly Aboriginal

2009: The Year We Raced 2009: The Year We Raced BackwardBackward

2009: The Year We Raced 2009: The Year We Raced BackwardBackward

Since: Some Since: Some Recovery, Then More Recovery, Then More

DisasterDisaster

Saskatchewan’s labour market Saskatchewan’s labour market will become scarcely will become scarcely

recognizablerecognizable

The labour market had better become The labour market had better become increasingly Aboriginalincreasingly Aboriginal

Provincial employment is about to stop Provincial employment is about to stop growing, except maybe in Reginagrowing, except maybe in Regina

Saskatchewan:Saskatchewan:

Not Just Your Parents’ Not Just Your Parents’ Prairie Province Prairie Province

Eric HoweEric HoweProfessor of EconomicsProfessor of Economics

University of SaskatchewanUniversity of Saskatchewan

www.northernimpaq.cawww.northernimpaq.ca