Santander LatAm Handbook - Pessoa Física - Santander LatA… · Real Estate Fabiola Gama / Toe ... The team recently created a one-stop-shop chart book for the ... We initiated coverage

Santander ― Latin America Research Handbook

April 2014

Ana Reynal, CFA

Bruno Amorim, CFA

Hector Chavez

Arturo EspinosaAndres Soto

Jose Antonio Parra

Renan Manda

Rodrigo Ordoñez

Walter Chiarvesio

Latin America Research

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Strategy

João Saad

Nicolas Schild

Thiago Silva

Walter Chiarvesio

Felipe Reis

Rodrigo Ordoñez

Bruno Mendonça

Francisco Errandonea

Rodrigo Ordoñez

Walter Chiarvesio

Reinaldo Santana

Andres Soto

Bruno Taveira

Mauricio Serna

Ronaldo Kasinsky

Agribusiness

João Noronha, CFA

Luis Miranda, CFA

Mauricio Serna

Bruno Giardino, CFA

Francisco Echeverria

Reinaldo Santana

Alex Sciacio, CFA

Rodrigo Ordoñez

Walter Chiarvesio

Jesus GomezHead of LatAm Research &

Equity Strategy

Coverage List

Gustavo AllevatoGustavo Allevato

Walter Chiarvesio

Andres Soto

Bruno Taveira

João Mamede

Mauricio Serna

Ronaldo Kasinsky

Henrique Navarro

Nicholas Schild

Renata Cabral

Corporate Access

Renan Manda

Jose Antonio Parra

Christian Audi

Education

Daniel Gewehr

Bruno Giardino, CFA

Food & Beverage

Luis Miranda, CFA

Oil, Gas &Petrochemicals

Christian Audi

Retailing

João Mamede

Transportation

Pedro Balcão

Capital Goods

Daniel Gewehr

Electric &Other Utilities

Maria Carolina Carneiro

Healthcare

Daniel Gewehr

Pulp & Forest Products

Alex Sciacio, CFA

Cement &Construction

Toe Matsumura /Fabiola Gama

Financial | BanksFinancial | Non Banks

Boris Molina

Metals & Mining

Felipe Reis

Real Estate

Fabiola Gama /Toe Matsumura

Telecom, Media &Technology

Valder Nogueira

LatAm Equity Strategy

Jesus Gomez

Stefano Rizzi

Brazil

Daniel Gewehr

João Noronha, CFA

Chile

Mexico

Argentina

Walter Chiarvesio

North Andean Countries

Andres Soto

Francisco Errandonea

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Renata Cabral

Stefano Rizzi

Bruno Amorim, CFA

João Noronha, CFA

Jesus Gomez


Strategy

Daniel Gewehr

Electric &Other Utilities

João Saad

Thiago Silva

Felipe Reis

Alex Sciacio, CFA

Technology, Media &Telecom

Bruno Mendonça

Consumer Goods

Bruno Taveira

Luis Miranda

Ronaldo Kasinsky

Valder Nogueira

Education

Daniel Gewehr

Financial | BanksFinancial | Non BanksAgribusiness

Christian Audi

Capital Goods

Daniel Gewehr

João Noronha, CFA

Healthcare

Chemicals & Oil

Christian Audi

Bruno Giardino, CFA

Alex Sciacio, CFA

Valder NogueiraHead of Brazil Research

Coverage List

Gustavo Allevato

Gustavo Allevato

Boris Molina

Renata Cabral

Henrique Navarro

Daniel GewehrBruno Giardino, CFA

Felipe Reis

Metals & Mining

Corporate Access

Renan Manda

Fabiola Gama

Real Estate

João Mamede

Transportation

Pedro Balcão

Maria Carolina Carneiro

Pulp & Forest Products

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Best Recent Calls:

Preference of Ultrapar over Cosan. Throughout 2013, we reiterated our preference for Ultrapar vs. Cosan based on the fuel distribution segment in Brazil—themost attractive in the world, in our view—representing a much more significant part of Ultrapar’s EBITDA (close to 70%) vs. only around 30% for Cosan. Ultraparoutperformed Cosan by close to 30% during the year.

Preference of São Martinho over Cosan. With an eye focused solely on the sugar and ethanol businesses, we also reiterated our preference for São Martinho vs.Cosan, driven by SMO’s stronger FCF generation as well as likely higher dividend going into 2014. SMO has outperformed Cosan by almost 10% since our post-Cancun conference report.

Corporate Access:

Differentiated corporate access included a well-timed roadshow with Cosan’s CFO right before the company’s Cosan Day events, which included, among other news,the information that the collapse of Cosan’s two shares into one would not happen in 2013.

Coverage List Corporate Access

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Christian Audi (Sector Head)Christian Audi (Sector Head)

New York, USA

(+1) 212 350 3991 | [email protected]

Gustavo Allevato, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 6042

[email protected]

Coverage: Cosan | Cosan Limited | São MartinhoCoverage: Cosan | Cosan Limited | São Martinho

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5787 | [email protected]

Latin American Equities

Best Recent Calls:

Active portfolio rotation, with strong results. We initiated coverage of Mahle Metal Leve on July 18, 2013, with the stock gaining 21% in four months. The teamdowngraded Marcopolo in January 2013 at R$6.70. After a correction of 28%, we upgraded to Buy on January 2014.

Industry benchmark reports. Daniel Gewehr has been covering Capital Goods since 2001, on both the buy and sell-side, and has a deep understanding of theindustrial chain, as can be seen in his thematic reports like Weathering the South Storm—Does Expected BRL Devaluation Offsets Weaker Sales to Argentina?(February 11, 2014). The team recently created a one-stop-shop chart book for the sector, which offers a 360 º view of listed companies and its peers.

Corporate Access:

The best corporate access on the Street, including benchmark event Santander Capital Goods Trip. Daniel and his team have close access to management,hosting Non-Deal Road Shows/Events (and writing reports about them) with all Capital Goods companies under Santander’s coverage during 2013, namely Autometal,Iochpe, Marcopolo, Mahle, Randon, Romi, and Weg. In 2013, Daniel also conducted the Second Santander Capital Goods Trip, an opportunity to meet 21companies/sources meetings in five days, including eight site visits.


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Daniel Gewehr (Sector Head)Daniel Gewehr (Sector Head)

João Noronha CFA, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5734

[email protected]

Luis Miranda CFA, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1926

[email protected]

Mauricio Serna, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1931

[email protected]

Coverage: Alfa | Autometal | Grupo Carso | Iochpe Maxion | Mahle Metal Leve | Marcopolo | Mexichem | Randon | Romi | WegCoverage: Alfa | Autometal | Grupo Carso | Iochpe Maxion | Mahle Metal Leve | Marcopolo | Mexichem | Randon | Romi | Weg


Best Recent Calls:

Out-of-consensus call on MRV. Taking a contrary view from the market, which did not believe in MRV’s turnaround, we reiterated our positive view on MRV in June2013, stating that the worst was behind MRV and that the company was approaching the margin inflection point. We called investors’ attention to the company’s solidcash flow generation and excessively discounted valuation. In four months’ time, the stock climbed over 50% versus 13% for the Ibovespa, and as of this date, the stockis trading 17% higher versus -5% for the Ibovespa since June 2013.

Cemex Latam Holdings: We initiated coverage of Cemex Latin Holdings with a Buy rating in April 2013. We argued that CLH deserved a valuation premium toCementos Argos at a time when the market had an opposite view. Three months after that, CLH had outperformed CEMARGOS by 11%.

Sector piece on Colombian cement companies. In October 2013, we introduced our YE2014 target prices for CLH and CEMARGOS and named those stocks our toppicks in Colombia. CLH’s stock has rallied 11% since then.

Corporate Access:

Timely corporate access/events. Among the events we hosted in 2013 we highlight: (i) Lunch meeting with PDG’s CEO, Mr. Carlos Piani. The event took place duringa critical period in the company’s restructuring process, providing timely information on PDG’s turnaround and short-term outlook; (ii) Road show with MRV’s IR Director,Ms. Monica Simão: hosted in September, when MRVE3 began to outperform the market due to improved results, the road show clarified skeptical investors’ inquiriesabout the company’s earnings recovery and intended pace of growth; and (iii) Road show with CEF (Caixa Economica Federal): following a period of much noiseconcerning the discontinuation of the French amortization system in mortgage origination, we were on the road with CEF to separate untruths from facts as well as toprovide an update on the development of MCMV program..


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Toe Matsumura / Fabiola GamaToe Matsumura / Fabiola Gama

Mexico City, Mexico

(+52) 55 5257 8172

[email protected] Andres Soto, USA

(+1) 212 407 0976

[email protected]

Renan Manda, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 6535

[email protected]

Rodrigo Ordoñez, Chile

(+56) 22 336 3358

[email protected]

Walter Chiarvesio, Argentina

(+54) 11 4341 1564

[email protected]

Coverage: Ara | Cementos Argos | Cementos Pacasmayo | Cemex | Cemex LatAm Holdings | Cresud | Ferreycorp | GEO | Homex | ICA | IRSA | ParqueArauco | UrbiCoverage: Ara | Cementos Argos | Cementos Pacasmayo | Cemex | Cemex LatAm Holdings | Cresud | Ferreycorp | GEO | Homex | ICA | IRSA | ParqueArauco | Urbi

São Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 7414

[email protected]


Best Recent Calls:

Reiterating preference for the outperformer Kroton. Bruno maintained Kroton as his top pick during the whole year, and the stock outperformed its peers for thesecond year in a row, appreciating 73%—even when Anhanguera’s discount to the merger’s share swap ratio started to widen. Bruno’s call was based on Kroton’sbest-in-class fundamentals and on a risk-return perspective.

Favoring SER and Estacio. Santander was a joint bookrunner of SER’s IPO, which rose 34% in two months. Bruno worked in the IPO and initiated coverage inDecember. He has also favored Estacio for most of the year, and the stock appreciated 47% in 2013.

Amongst the most significant sector pieces published over the last few months, we would highlight (i)The Quality Watchman series, an in-depth analysis of MEC’squality assessments; and (ii) coverage of main industry events: Private Education Congress and ABED’s Distance-Learning International Conference.

Corporate Access:

5th Santander Education Conference established itself as an insightful event, based on presentations by nonlisted companies and industry experts, in addition to alllisted higher education companies. The team also organized events with reputable industry sources.


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Bruno Giardino, CFA (Sector Head)Bruno Giardino, CFA (Sector Head)

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5914 | [email protected]

Daniel Gewehr, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5787

[email protected]

Coverage: Anhanguera | Estácio | Kroton | Ser EducacionalCoverage: Anhanguera | Estácio | Kroton | Ser Educacional


Best Recent Calls:

Negative view on Copel: Curbing market expectations on apparently low multiples. In September 2013 we released a report on integrated companies in which wehighlighted our view that Copel’s adjusted multiples should account for lower implied return, worse operating and regulatory performance, and less growth sustainabilityin the longer term.

Positive calls on Taesa and Alupar. In Santander’s LatAm Universe Book, published in early January, we highlighted the attractiveness of the two cases before thestart of rationing discussions, based on solid cash flow generation, higher than average operating parameters, and good IRRs. In our 4Q13 preview, with the two stocksoverdiscounted, we reiterated the calls, and in both reports we have published on the hydro situation (early February and end of February), we highlighted ourpreference toward TransCos, even in our nonrationing cases.

The team published a number of insightful thematic reports, among them Brazil Economics/Utilities/Strategy: Crying in (No) Rain—Talking about Rationing Again;February 2014, Brazil Utilities: Fifth Brazilian Utilities Day: Help on the Way but Uncertainties Remain, March 2014.

Corporate Events:

VII EuroLatAm Infrastructure & Utilities Conference in NY—Top Management from Cemig, Sabesp, TAESA, and Alupar—October 2013Cancun CEO Latam Conference—Top Management from Endesa, Enersis, Colbun, Cemig, TAESA, and Alupar.Fifth Brazilian Utilities Day—Top Management from Tractebel, CPFL, and AES; CCEE board member and Aneel representative—March 2014


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Maria Carolina CarneiroMaria Carolina Carneiro

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 6682 | [email protected] Schild, Chile

(+56) 22 336 3361

[email protected]


(+54) 11 4341 1564

[email protected]

Coverage: AES Gener | AES Tiete | Aguas Andinas | Alupar | Cemig | Cesp | Colbun | Comgas | Copasa | Copel | CPFL Energia | E-CL | Eletrobras |Eletropaulo | Endesa Chile | Energias do Brasil | Enersis | Eneva | Equatorial | IAM | Light | Renova Energia | Sabesp | Taesa | Tractebel |Transmissao Paulisa

Coverage: AES Gener | AES Tiete | Aguas Andinas | Alupar | Cemig | Cesp | Colbun | Comgas | Copasa | Copel | CPFL Energia | E-CL | Eletrobras |Eletropaulo | Endesa Chile | Energias do Brasil | Enersis | Eneva | Equatorial | IAM | Light | Renova Energia | Sabesp | Taesa | Tractebel |Transmissao Paulisa

Thiago Silva, Brazil

(+55) 11 3553 2555

[email protected]

João Saad, Brazil

(+55) 11 3553 9666

[email protected]



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Boris Molina (Sector Head)Boris Molina (Sector Head)

New York, USA

(+1) 212 350 3977 | [email protected]

Henrique Navarro, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5756

[email protected]

Renata Cabral, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5731

[email protected]

Coverage: Banco de Chile | Banco do Brasil | Banco Macro | Banco Pine | Banorte | Banregio | BBVA Frances | BCI | Bradesco | Corpbanca | Credicorp |Davivienda | Gentera | GF Galicia | GF Inbursa | Grupo Aval | Intercorp | Itaú Unibanco | Itaúsa

Coverage: Banco de Chile | Banco do Brasil | Banco Macro | Banco Pine | Banorte | Banregio | BBVA Frances | BCI | Bradesco | Corpbanca | Credicorp |Davivienda | Gentera | GF Galicia | GF Inbursa | Grupo Aval | Intercorp | Itaú Unibanco | Itaúsa

Nicholas Schild, Chile

(+56) 22 336 3361

[email protected]

Best Recent Calls:

Remarkable report The End of the Repression: After recommending caution with respect to Brazilian banks for close to three years, Boris Molina and HenriqueNavarro published a report in October 2013 foreseeing a tapering of the policy of strong public sector loan growth, predicting a recovery in ROEs and market share atprivate banks, offering a more positive view on the sector, and naming Itaú Unibanco as their top pick in Brazilian banks. The latest data from the Brazilian CentralBanks indicates that their thesis was spot-on, with a recovery in spreads and a slowdown in public bank loan growth, as anticipated in the report.

Remarkable calls of the year: Boris was persistent in his call of a Buy rating on Davivienda in Colombia in 2013, correctly anticipating that Bancolombia wouldunderperform due to the need to increase capital to bolster capital ratios as the closing of the acquisition in Panama. His upgrade of Bancolombia to Buy in early 2014,ahead of the capital increase, also proved to be the right call, as the stock rallied ahead of the deal. In a similar way, Boris was ahead of the market with Banorte, witha Buy rating on Banorte before its capital increase in mid-2013, again anticipating a that the stock has overly discounted the share overhang. Likewise, in Mexico, histimely upgrade of Compartamos (Gentera) as a likely winner in the new regulatory environment in Mexico also paid off handsomely, while he correctly recommendedthat investors to stay way from Bolsa for the duration of the year on the weak cost outlook and regulatory uncertainties.


Best Recent Calls:

Top Insurance Coverage - Timely Recommendation on Brazilian Insurance Companies. Henrique is ranked in the top positions in accuracy and timing of hisrecommendations on insurance companies, according to Bloomberg analyst rank. He covers all four listed insurance Brazilian companies namely: BB Seguridade,Porto Seguro, SulAmerica and Brasil Insurance. His timely reports provides an in depth update and is precise in anticipate the insurance seasonal characteristics – softand hard cycle incorporating an extensive cross-check of views with possible impacts of industry leading indicators as: unemployment level vs. insurance penetrationand anticipated analysis of Brazilian rainy season vs. auto insurance market, which position his research apart from mainstream..Out of Consensus calls – Cielo and BM&F Bovespa. Henrique started 2014 with out of consensus call on Cielo, being the single analyst with underperformancerecommendation, anticipating the competitive environment for the acquiring industry for 2014. He also maintained an out of consensus view on BM&F Bovespa afterclose two years, maintaining the proved negative view on traded volumes. He changed his recommendation to hold on October 2013, with a more constructive viewdriven by the priced in impact on competition and attractive company’s dividend yield.

Corporate Access:

Strong Corporate Access – Events and Road Show: Henrique and team have also close access to financial institutions management, hosting several events in 2013as: Mortgage Morning with top management from the largest Brazilian banks, Insurance Day with all of the Directors from Brazilian insurance companies present,Loyalty Day with listed and non-listed company’s top management. Henrique also hosted the first event with investors with ATS Brasil in March


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SBoris Molina (Sector Head)Boris Molina (Sector Head)

New York, USA

(+1) 212 350 3977 | [email protected]

Coverage: AFP Habitat | BB Seguridade | BM&F Bovespa | Bolsa Mexicana de Valores | Brasil Insurance | CETIP | Cielo | Grupo Sura | Multiplus | PortoSeguro | Smiles | Sul America | Valid

Coverage: AFP Habitat | BB Seguridade | BM&F Bovespa | Bolsa Mexicana de Valores | Brasil Insurance | CETIP | Cielo | Grupo Sura | Multiplus | PortoSeguro | Smiles | Sul America | Valid

Henrique Navarro, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5756

[email protected]

Renata Cabral, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5731

[email protected]


(+56) 22 336 3361

[email protected]


Best Recent Calls:

We have maintained a strong conviction call for Gruma. The company was the best-performing stock in the sector in the last two years. We identified theturnaround and deleveraging process of the company.

For Ambev, we maintained a good flow of information on the corporate restructure process. Also, we maintained a cautious view on the stock due to valuationand identified a good entry point in late 2013, as volumes bottomed out at the end of the year. What’s more, our team fostered communication with nonpubliccompanies (Schin/Kirin).

We remain bearish on the bottlers in Mexico. The main reasons were (1) the expensive valuation levels and (2) expectation of more normalized growth. Theenvironment was further complicated by new excise taxes in Mexico.


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Luis Miranda, CFA (Sector Head)Luis Miranda, CFA (Sector Head)

Mexico City, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1926

[email protected]

Andres Soto, USA

(+1) 212 407 0976

[email protected]

Bruno Taveira, Brazil

(+55) 11 3553 9602

[email protected]

João Mamede, Brazil

(+55) 11 3553 0699

[email protected]


(+52) 55 5269 1931

[email protected]

Ronaldo Kasinsky

(+55) 11 3553 2396

[email protected]

Coverage: AmBev | Andina | Arca Continental | Brasil Foods | CCU | Coca-Cola Femsa | Concha y Toro | FEMSA | Gruma | Grupo Bimbo | Grupo Herdez |Grupo Modelo | Grupo Nutresa | JBS | Marfrig | Minerva | Pesquera Exalmar

Coverage: AmBev | Andina | Arca Continental | Brasil Foods | CCU | Coca-Cola Femsa | Concha y Toro | FEMSA | Gruma | Grupo Bimbo | Grupo Herdez |Grupo Modelo | Grupo Nutresa | JBS | Marfrig | Minerva | Pesquera Exalmar


Best Recent Calls:

Industry benchmark Healthy Actions Required report. Daniel, who has experience as a buy-side analyst, produced unique industry reports such as BrazilianHealthcare: Healthy Actions Required-Takeaways from Our 7th Annual Trip, where he provided an in-depth update of his coverage and healthcare subsegments. Hisresearch incorporates an extensive cross-check of views on the healthcare sector, including nonlisted entities in the industry such as regulators, hospital providers,brokers, health consultants, and reinsurers, which position his research apart from mainstream.

Active healthcare portfolio rotation, with strong results. Daniel has been very timely in the case of OdontoPrev, upgrading the stock to buy on June 24, 2013.After the stock outperformed by 13%, Daniel downgraded it on January 9, 2014 (ODPV has corrected 12% since then). In October 2013, he changed his top pick toQualicorp from OdontoPrev.

Benchmark event: Healthcare Trip (already in its 7th edition). Daniel and team have close access to management, hosting Non-Deal Road Shows with all thehealthcare companies under coverage during 2013. Daniel also conducted the 7th Healthcare Trip with all listed companies.

Coverage beyond Brazil. Besides the coverage in Brazil, Daniel sponsors the coverage of Genomma in Mexico and ILC and Cruz Blanca Salud in Chile.


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EDaniel Gewehr (Sector Head)Daniel Gewehr (Sector Head)

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5787 | [email protected]

Bruno Giardino CFA, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5914

[email protected]

Francisco Echeverria, Chile

(+56) 22 336 3358

[email protected]

Coverage: DASA | Fleury | OdontoPrev | Qualicorp | Cruz Blanca Salud | Inversiones La Construcción | Genomma LabCoverage: DASA | Fleury | OdontoPrev | Qualicorp | Cruz Blanca Salud | Inversiones La Construcción | Genomma Lab

Reinaldo Santana, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1920

[email protected]


Best Recent Calls:

Anticipating structural changes and turnarounds. 2013 was a turnaround year for the sector, with stocks going up significantly during the second half of the yearafter a long period of underperfomance. We were able to identify the trend and upgrade the sector in the middle of the year, enjoying most of the outperformance.

Alerting investors on Vale. In a sequence of roadshows during the year it become clear to us that the main factor driving Vale's shares was the top-down view ratherthan bottom up. With that, in spite of the company's good fundamentals and management achievements, we were able to alert investors about our skepticism on thestock given the negative expectations about iron ore prices and China.

Corporate Access:

During the year we organized some meetings with company CFOs, including those of Gerdau, Usiminas, and Magnesita.


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GFelipe Reis, Sector HeadFelipe Reis, Sector Head

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5758 | [email protected]

Alex Sciacio CFA, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5870

[email protected]


(+56) 22 336 3358

[email protected]

Coverage: Buenaventura | CAP | CSN | Gerdau | Grupo Mexico | Magnesita | Siderar | Southern Copper | SQM | Ternium | Usiminas | Vale | VolcanCoverage: Buenaventura | CAP | CSN | Gerdau | Grupo Mexico | Magnesita | Siderar | Southern Copper | SQM | Ternium | Usiminas | Vale | Volcan


(+54) 11 4341 1564

[email protected]


Best Recent Calls:

Early bird on IEnova in Mexico: Initiated coverage in mid-2013 with a strong-conviction Buy rating and the highest target price in the Street based on its strongfundamentals, defensive growth, and attractive non-energy-reform related opportunities. The stock has outperformed the Mexican Bolsa by 40% since ourinitiation report entitled The Right Stock, at the Right Time.

Ultrapar as Top Pick in Brazil: Reiterated the stock as our top pick in April 2013 based on the differentiated event with Ultrapar’s CEO (first meeting ever withinvestors in Rio); the stock hasoutperformed the Brazilian Bovespa by 17% since our report.

Braskem in Brazil: Upgraded the stock to Buy in April 2013 based on strong international spreads, a weakening BRL, and solid volumes; the stock hasoutperformed the Brazilian Bovespa by 16% since our upgrade.

Corporate Access:

Varied corporate access, including road shows in different geographic areas with CEO of Petrobras, CEO of Ultrapar, CEO of Queiroz Galvao, CEO of Sete Brasil,CFO of Allesat, as well as events with key industry associations: first meeting of President of Sindicom with investors in 2014; President of Abiplast, among others.


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Christian Audi (Sector Head)Christian Audi (Sector Head)

New York, USA

(+1) 212 350 3991 | [email protected]

Gustavo Allevato, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 6042

[email protected]


(+54) 11 4341 1564

[email protected]

Coverage: Braskem | Ecopetrol | HRT | IEnova | Lupatech | OGX | Pacific Rubiales | Petrobras | Queiroz Galvão E&P | Tenaris | UltraparCoverage: Braskem | Ecopetrol | HRT | IEnova | Lupatech | OGX | Pacific Rubiales | Petrobras | Queiroz Galvão E&P | Tenaris | Ultrapar


Best Recent Calls:

Klabin: perfectly timing the equity offering overhang and share rebound. Our out-of-consensus negative read on the conditions proposed for Klabin’s equityoffering proved correct, and the stock declined 20% since the announcement in June. In August, with the stock reaching two-year lows, we upgraded Klabin to Buy,as we understood that the overhangs were already fairly priced in. Since the report, the stock price increased 25%.

Fibria: curbing market enthusiasm on pulp prices. After hosting a meeting with Fibria’s CFO and commercial director, we reiterated our cautious view on the stock,which was trading close to four-year highs based on the expectations that pulp prices would rise further. Our counter-consensus view materialized, pulp pricescorrected, and Fibria’s ADR’s declined 18%.

Suzano: a farsighted call on delayed capex and challenging FCF outlook. Back in September, we were early birds in highlighting Suzano’s delayed capex issuesand flagged that consensus was too bullish on 2014 FCF estimates—a view that indeed was borne out in March, when a 60% higher-than-consensus capex wasannounced. Since then, Suzano has consistently underperformed the Ibovespa and its main peers.

Duratex: pounding the table on unjustified stock underperformance. Following our meeting with Duratex’s management at Santander’s Brazil Conference inAugust, we reiterated our Buy rating, as the stock’s steep 20% decline was unjustified. Three weeks after our report, the stock had rebounded 20%.


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Alex Sciacio, CFA (Sector Head)Alex Sciacio, CFA (Sector Head)

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5870 | [email protected]

Felipe Reis, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5758

[email protected]


(+56) 22 336 3358

[email protected]

Coverage: CMPC | Copec | Duratex | Fibria | Klabin | SuzanoCoverage: CMPC | Copec | Duratex | Fibria | Klabin | Suzano


Best Recent Calls:

EZTec as a high-quality asset has paid off. In early 2013 we named EZTec as our top pick among the Brazilian homebuilders due to still inexpensive valuation vis-à-vis its profitability level and the expected pickup in earnings driven mainly by the EZTowers project and reliable execution. By November, 2013, the stock was up26% YTD, at which point we downgraded the stock purely on rich valuation. After the downgrade the stock declined 13% by year-end.

Increases in TP for Fibra Uno and Vesta. In 1Q14 we published reports on Fibra Uno and Vesta, reinforcing our positive view on both names. We believe Fibra Unowill grow as it integrates properties and continues with organic growth. We expect Vesta to grow as it spends cash still available from its last follow-on to develop itspipeline, which includes a major project with Nissan.

Corporate Access:Timely corporate access/events. Among the events we hosted in 2013 we highlight: (i) Lunch meeting with PDG’s CEO, Mr. Carlos Piani: The event took placeduring a critical period in the company’s restructuring process, providing timely information on PDG’s turnaround and short-term outlook; (ii) Road show with MRV’s IRDirector, Ms. Monica Simão: Hosted in September, when MRVE3 began to outperform the market due to improved results, the road show clarified skeptical investors’inquiries about the company’s earnings recovery and intended pace of growth; and (iii) Road show with CEF: following much noise concerning the discontinuation ofthe French amortization system in mortgage origination, we were on the road with CEF to separate untruths from facts as well as to provide an update on thedevelopment of MCMV program.

Property tour in Mexico City: We had a property tour in January of 2014, which included properties of Fibra Macquarie, Fibra Terrafina, and Fibra Danhos; the tourwas useful to a major European client in making an investment decision.


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Fabiola Gama / Toe MatsumuraFabiola Gama / Toe Matsumura

Mexico City, Mexico

(+52) 55 5257 8172

[email protected]

São Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 7414

[email protected] Renan Manda, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 6535

[email protected]

Jose Antonio Parra, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1904

[email protected]

Coverage: BR Malls | BR Properties | Cyrela Brazil Realty | Direcional Engenharia | Even | EZ Tec | Fibra Uno | Helbor | Iguatemi | MRV Engenharia |Multiplan | PDG Realty | Rodobens | Rossi Residencial | Tecnisa | Vesta

Coverage: BR Malls | BR Properties | Cyrela Brazil Realty | Direcional Engenharia | Even | EZ Tec | Fibra Uno | Helbor | Iguatemi | MRV Engenharia |Multiplan | PDG Realty | Rodobens | Rossi Residencial | Tecnisa | Vesta


Best Recent Calls:

We anticipated the sector de-rating in Brazil. In our December 12, 2013, Brazil Retail & Consumer Goods report, Uncertainties to Continue for a While Longer, werevised our sector outlook and highlighted our negative view on the consumption environment in Brazil for 2014. We also noted the demanding valuation at which moststocks were trading and we recommended selectivity. In February this year, retailers strongly underperformed, followed by a de-rating, with the sector’s average 2014EP/E dropping from 19x to 16x.

We prefer Mexico over Brazil—Liverpool and Lojas Americanas are our top picks. We recently published the report Mariachi or Samba—Dancing to DifferentBeats in which we highlight our more constructive view on Mexico over Brazil, as we expect economic activity to recover throughout 2014, especially in the second halfof the year. Our top pick in the region is Liverpool, as we think this department store chain is well positioned to take advantage of the positive structural changes in theMexican apparel segment. In Brazil, our top pick is Lojas Americanas, as we believe this Brazilian retail chain’s model provides one of the best alternatives for thechallenging economic environment the country is experiencing. We like the company´s defensive profile (resilient sales mix and low dependence on credit) and itstrack record of good results.

Corporate Access:We hosted a conference with listed and nonlisted retailers. The event allowed buy-side analysts to interact with companies that usually do not speak to theinvestor community.


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GJoão Mamede (Sector Head)João Mamede (Sector Head)

Andres Soto, USA

(+1) 212 407 0976

[email protected]

Bruno Taveira, Brazil

(+55) 11 3553 9602

[email protected]


(+52) 55 5269 1931

[email protected]

Ronaldo Kasinsky

(+55) 11 3553 2396

[email protected]

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3553 0699

[email protected]


(+52) 55 5269 1920

[email protected]

Coverage: Almacenes Exito | Alsea | B2W | CBD | Cencosud | Chedraui | Cia Hering | Comerci | Falabella | Grupo Famsa | Grupo Sanborns | Hypermarcas |IMC | Kimberly Clark | Liverpool | Lojas Americanas | Lojas Renner | Natura | Ripley | Saraiva | Soriana | Sports World | Unicasa Móveis | ViaVarejo | Walmex

Coverage: Almacenes Exito | Alsea | B2W | CBD | Cencosud | Chedraui | Cia Hering | Comerci | Falabella | Grupo Famsa | Grupo Sanborns | Hypermarcas |IMC | Kimberly Clark | Liverpool | Lojas Americanas | Lojas Renner | Natura | Ripley | Saraiva | Soriana | Sports World | Unicasa Móveis | ViaVarejo | Walmex


Best Recent Calls:

The go-to team to understand corporate events, including the Oi-PT amalgamation and the potential sale of TIM Brasil. We closely analyzed and have beensuccessfully guiding investors in understanding the intricacies of the main corporate events in the sector. We first detected the major side effects on all parties of theproposed Oi-PT merger and have carefully guided investors on the non-obvious steps that may (or may not) lead to a potential M&A involving TIM Brasil through an in-market consolidation or through the entry of a new player.

The early bird on the TIM M&A news flow. We now have a more cautious stance. In late July we called investors’ attention to upcoming (September) changes inTelecom Italia’s controlling group (Telco) that could led to M&A noise on TIM Brasil. From its low ~R$8/share in late July, TIMP3 rose almost 60% through late January.We grew more cautious on the stock before the peak price on the grounds that the intricacies of doing an in-market consolidation deal (where the most value could beadded vs. entry of a newcomer) would make it unlikely to materialize.

Corporate Access:

Custom-made and out-of-the-box corporate access. We moved away from the main tream large/group events and shifted our corporate strategy focus to small andcustom-designed meetings with key industry specialists (in the telecom and tech sectors), selecting for these meetings company officials, legal/fiscal advisors, andprivate companies.


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Valder Nogueira (Sector Head)Valder Nogueira (Sector Head)

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5747 | [email protected]

Bruno Mendonça, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5759

[email protected]


(+56) 22 336 3358

[email protected]


(+54) 11 4341 1564

[email protected]

Coverage Telecom: America Movil | Entel | Oi | Telecom Argentina | Telefonica Brasil | TIM Participações

Coverage Media: Televisa

Coverage Technology: Linx | Positivo Informatica | Sonda | Totvs

Coverage Telecom: America Movil | Entel | Oi | Telecom Argentina | Telefonica Brasil | TIM Participações

Coverage Media: Televisa

Coverage Technology: Linx | Positivo Informatica | Sonda | Totvs



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NPedro Balcão (Sector Head)Pedro Balcão (Sector Head)

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5765 | [email protected]

Ana Reynal CFA, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1900

[email protected]

Bruno Amorim CFA, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 6016

[email protected]

Coverage: ALL | Arteris | Asur | CCR | Copa | Ecorodovias | Embraer | GAP | Gol | JSL | LatAm | Localiza | OHL Mexico | OMA | Santos Brasil | Tegma |

Triunfo | Volaris

Coverage: ALL | Arteris | Asur | CCR | Copa | Ecorodovias | Embraer | GAP | Gol | JSL | LatAm | Localiza | OHL Mexico | OMA | Santos Brasil | Tegma |

Triunfo | Volaris

Jose Antonio Parra, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1904

[email protected]

Euro-LatAm edge knowledge. Not only do we have a consistent analysis across LatAm, but we also work closely with our Infrastructure team in Europe.

Best Recent Calls:.Infrastructure: During the year, we have insisted on two calls: (i) that toll roads are bond proxies and therefore there was a significant risk for Brazilian names;and (ii) Overweight Mexico vs. Underweight Brazil, based on different momentum in long-term interest rates in the twocountries and expensive valuations in Brazil (IRR below risk free) vs. reasonable valuations in Mexico (IRR above Ke). Thus, we have maintained a negative stance onCCR and a positive one on OHL Mexico.Mexican Airports: We downgraded Mexican airports in January 2013 and then upgraded the sector (with an in-depth report) in November 2013, with OMA as top pick.We find GAP’s valuation reasonable but were concerned about the conflict among shareholders; with respect to ASUR, we identified a real risk of tariff falls and a richvaluation.Negative on airlines due to the challenging macro scenario that, in our view, should more than offset the correct conservative management stance on capacity. Copawas the exception. It was always our only Buy. We were the only analysts to publish a report on Volaris alerting the market to a price war in Mexico. Please see ourinitiation of coverage last December.Negative on Santos Brasil, due to a different view on competition and renewal of concession from consensus.Positive on Localiza. Throughout the year, we kept our 2013 earnings estimate clearly above the consensus, which proved correct as lower revenue was offset bylower depreciation, lower-than-expected financials, and a recovery in car sales in 2H13.Downgrade of Tegma in January 2013 was in anticipation of a very bad performance of Integrated logistics. We upgraded it to Buy on January 9, 2014.JSL: In-depth initiation of coverage in December 2012 with a Buy rating.Corporate Access:Access to top management and benchmark events, including the one EuroLatam InfraConference on the Street. During 2013, we had several interesting events,including: (i) a Brazilian Infrastructure trip, including site visits and meetings with top management and government officials; (ii) the VII EuroLatam InfraConference,with the presence of main companies in the sector in LatAm and Europe.(iii) At our Cancun conference, almost all LatAm Transportation and Infra companies were present and represented by top management.



Best Recent Calls:

Our out-of-consensus call of playing the Fed relief rally following the tapering talks correction in June by overweighting Brazil vs. Mexico generated outperformance ofmore than 26% in USD terms through October 2013. Our more negative than consensus view on Chilean equities due to political volatility and weak flow dynamicsmaterialized, as the country was one of the worst-performing LatAm markets of 2013.

Underweight stance toward consumption sectors toward end of 1H13 due to stretched valuations and macro headwinds, especially for food retailers in Mexico anddiscretionary retailers in Brazil, was consistent with strong underperformance. Strong overweight in education and investment-related sectors, such as cement &construction and infrastructure, materialized, as they were the best-performing sectors in 2013.

Our staple publication LatAm All Stars, in which we outline our top 10 large/mid- and small-cap top picks, outperformed the benchmark by more than 9% in 2013. Top-performing calls were Gruma, IEnova , Bancolombia, and Cementos Argos. On the quantitative front, we accurately predicted vast majority of additions/deletions forrebalancing of MSCI LatAm indices.

Outlook:

The top-down view for LatAm remains challenging in the short term. As outlined in our Funds & Flows weekly reports, our case for more supportive equity flows in2H14 remains, as better relative valuations in EM vs. DM coupled with lower headline risk stemming from China should continue to serve as a catalyst for investors,especially among institutional foreign investors that remain underweight LatAm.

We continue to prefer Mexico and Colombia to Brazil and Peru. We remain neutral on Chile and Argentina.

Top Picks:

Ambev, Banorte, Braskem, IEnova, Ultrapar, Copa, Gruma, OMA, and Parque Arauco.

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YJesus Gomez (Head of LatAm Research, Strategist)Jesus Gomez (Head of LatAm Research, Strategist)

New York, USA

(+1) 212 350 3992 | [email protected]

Andres Soto, USA

(+1) 212 407 0976

[email protected]

Arturo Espinosa, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1924

[email protected]

Daniel Gewehr, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5787

[email protected]

Francisco Errandonea, Chile

(+56) 22 336 3357

[email protected]

Hector Chavez, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1925

[email protected]


(+54) 11 4341 1564

[email protected]

João Noronha, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5734

[email protected]

Stefano Rizzi, USA

(+1) 212 350 3979

[email protected]


Best Recent Calls:

Hold recommendations on Southern Copper, GMEXICO, and Volcan.

Buy recommendation on Argentina following electoral results in mid-term elections. Top picks: Banco Macro and YPF.

2013 Sector Outlook:

Cautious view on base metal companies.


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Walter Chiarvesio (Strategist)Walter Chiarvesio (Strategist)

Buenos Aires, Argentina

(+54) 11 4341 1564 | [email protected]

Christian Audi, USA

(+1) 212 350 3991

[email protected]

Boris Molina, USA

(+1) 212 350 3977

[email protected]

Rodrigo Park, Argentina

(+54) 11 4341 1080

[email protected]


Best Recent Calls:

Differentiated thematic reports. Daniel, who has experience as a buy-side analyst, produced unique strategy reports such as Hey Competition, Can You Jump aWide Moat?Our Approach to Competitive Advantages of Listed Companies, offering a different perspective regarding investment screening of Brazilian listedcompanies. Daniel also published the reports Moving out of Comfort Zone and Playing the Hurdle Races, where he suggested out-of consensus picks and scenariosfor Brazil equities.

Adopting a more cautious view on Brazilian equity market since 2013 has paid off. Daniel built a recommended portfolio which outperformed the benchmark by16 pp in LTM, helped by its bottom-up construction acquired in his 13 years’ experience in sector coverage.

Complete line of strategy products. Daniel offers one-stop-shop coverage of Brazilian strategy, with products including the Chart Book, thematic reports,Quantitative Portfolio, Small Caps Portfolio, Brazil Investor trip, and Weekly News Flow, among others.

Corporate Access:

During 2013-14, the Brazil Equity Strategy team has provided investors with the possibility to meet (1) political experts (Eurasia Group, Marcelo Marinis, and AlbertoAlmeida); (2) industry scholars (Claudio Frischtak); and (3) a range of cross-checks and industry sources, such as (a) IBOPE (Brazilian specialist on shopping malls);and (b) Mr. Marcelo Cherto (retail franchise consultant).Santander’s Strategy Team also hosted the 7th Brazil Trip, a unique investor event focused on nonlisted sources in order to cross-check main market sectors.


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Daniel Gewehr (Strategist)Daniel Gewehr (Strategist)

Sao Paulo, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5787 | [email protected]

João Noronha, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5734

[email protected]

Pedro Balcão Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5765

[email protected]

Valder Nogueira, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5747

[email protected]

Christian Audi, USA

(+1) 212 350 3991

[email protected]



Best Recent Calls:

On June 20, 2013, we rated Endesa as Buy, on our assumption that hydrology had limited downside, and that even in the case of a dry year, Endesa’s resultswere not going to suffer, because of the entry of new efficient coal capacity and the disciplined commercial policy of the company. Back then this was an out-of-consensus call as, historically, Endesa’s results have had a correlation with the level of rains in Chile. We have reiterated the call on a quarterly basis, and sincethen the stock has been one of the best performers in the market, outperforming the local benchmark by 12%.

We offer on-the-ground coverage of the Chilean elections since the primary elections, with a series of reports on the candidates’ main proposals.

Corporate Access:

We organized the XV edition of our CEO conference in Santiago , which we have now expanded with additional days in Lima, Bogotá, and Medellin. We hosted 26events, such as meetings with CEOs, government officials, and consultants, as well as site visits, with a reduced group of international investors..

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Francisco Errandonea (Strategist)Francisco Errandonea (Strategist)

Santiago, Chile

(+56) 22 336 3357 | [email protected]


(+56) 22 336 3361

[email protected]


(+56) 22 336 3358

[email protected]

Francisco Echeverria, Chile

(+56) 22 336 3358

[email protected]



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Hector Chavez (Strategist)Hector Chavez (Strategist)

Mexico City, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1925 | [email protected]

Arturo Espinosa, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1924

[email protected]

David Franco, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1932

[email protected]


(+52) 55 5269 1926

[email protected]


(+52) 55 5269 1920

[email protected]

Ana Reyna CFA, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1900

[email protected]

Toe Matsumura, Mexico

(+52) 55 5257 8172

[email protected]

Best Recent Calls:Evaluation of 2013 strategy: During the beginning of 1H13, we recommended a cautious investment strategy due to high valuation and increased downside risks.The Mexican IPC registered a decrease of 18% in 1H13 from a maximum of around 46,000 points to a minimum 37,517 points. After reaching this minimum level anddespite valuations remaining expensive, we called for a more aggressive investment strategy. In the second half of the year, the IPC rebounded 14% to 42,727 pointsby year end.

During 2013, our Mexican Model Portfolio outperformed the Mexican stock market by 331 bps (with a positive 1.07% return vs. -2.24% for the IPC).

In our January 2014 strategy report (Market View: Volatility Risks Suggest a Defensive Strategy), we highlighted that 2014 would be a complicated year for Mexicanequities because of stubbornly high valuations and the volatility in GEM currencies and stock markets that the U.S. Fed’s tapering process would generate. To date,the Mexico IPC Index is down 6.9% in U.S. dollars.

Since mid-2013, we have been very negative on the TMT sector due to the strong competitive environment facing AMX in its various markets and because ofregulatory risk in Mexico. We also have been quite cautious on the food retailer sector due to a very weak consumer environment since mid-2013 and the expectednegative effect that the fiscal reform would have on the Mexican consumer environment in 1H14. These two sectors have underperformed the Mexican Mexico IPC inthe past 12 months.

We have had strong conviction on Fibra Uno, which despite a significant correction in 1H13 due to higher interest rates, outperformed the Mexican market by 1,070bps. In 1Q14, Fibra Uno also outperformed the Mexican market by 514 bps.


Best Recent Calls:

Cemex Latam Holdings: We initiated coverage of CLH with a Buy rating in April 2013. We argued that CLH deserved a valuation premium to Cementos Argos at atime when then market had an opposite view. Three months after that, CLH had outperformed CEMARGOS by 11%.

Sector piece on Colombian cement companies. In October 2013, we introduced our YE2014 target prices for CLH and CEMARGOS and named those stocks ourtop picks in Colombia. CLH’s stock has rallied 11% since then.

Almacenes Exito: We downgraded the stock to Hold in July 2013. Over the next six months, the stock performed in line with the COLCAP index. On March 3, 2014,we upgraded to Buy, arguing that the stock was undervalued vs. other retailers in the region. The stock has rallied 10% since our upgrade.

Corporate Access:

During the week of August 26, we organized the XV Annual Andean Trip. A five-day agenda included 25 meetings with the CEOs and CFOs of the mostrepresentative companies, government officials, and political and economic analysts in Colombia, Peru, and Chile.

During the year we have organized several bespoke trips to Colombia and Peru.


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Andres Soto (Strategist)Andres Soto (Strategist)

New York, USA

(+1) 212 407 0976| [email protected]


(+52) 55 5269 1926

[email protected]

Christian Audi, USA

(+1) 212 350 3991

[email protected]

Boris Molina, USA

(+1) 212 350 3977

[email protected]


Corporate Debt

Mariana Emsenhuber

Isidro Arrieta

Victor Schmutzler

Aaron HolsbergHead of LatAm Credit Research


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Best Recent Calls:

We Overweighted Braskem bonds (’20, ’21, ’22, and ’41), based on our conviction that Braskem is an improving credit whose investment-grade rating is increasinglysecure. Recent results have indeed shown steady improvement, and this remain a core pick.

We Overweighted Gerdau bonds (’17, ’20, ’21, and ‘23), similarly considering it cheap to investment-grade peers and in view of its improving credit metrics and steadynet debt reduction. Then the bonds tightened 50-75 bp and we took our gain, moving this to Market Weight in February 2014.

We Underweighted GVO bonds (’18 and ’22) in May 2013, and in second half 2014 these bonds fell from 90-95 to the current level of 55-60 on severe credit concerns.Our main sector pieces on LatAm credit were the briefing books prepared in September following our research trip to Mexico and in October following our AndeanInvestor Conference.

Corporate Access:

Events included investor trips to Brazil (April), Mexico (September), and Peru and Chile (October), as well as breakfast with Javer and dinner with Geo in March forMexican Homebuilding Day, and two forums where investors met with senior analysts from Moody’s and S&P.


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Aaron Holsberg (Sector Head)Aaron Holsberg (Sector Head)

New York, USA

(+1) 212 350 0978 | [email protected]

Isidro Arrieta, USA

(+1) 212 407 0982

[email protected]

Mariana Emsenhuber, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5776

[email protected]

Victor Schmutzler, Brazil

(+55) 11 3553 2529

[email protected]

Coverage: Arauco | Arcor | Grupo Bimbo | Braskem | Camposol | Cemex | Cencosud | CMPC | CNO | Colbun | Copeinca | CSN | E-CL | EEB | Fibria | Gerdau |GVO | ICA | MABE | Marfrig | Minerva | ODB Drilling | Pacific Rubiales | Sigma | Suzano | Usiminas | Votorantim

Coverage: Arauco | Arcor | Grupo Bimbo | Braskem | Camposol | Cemex | Cencosud | CMPC | CNO | Colbun | Copeinca | CSN | E-CL | EEB | Fibria | Gerdau |GVO | ICA | MABE | Marfrig | Minerva | ODB Drilling | Pacific Rubiales | Sigma | Suzano | Usiminas | Votorantim


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Adriana Dupita

Cristiano Souza

David Franco

Fernanda Consorte

Hector Chavez

Juan Pablo Cabrera

Marcela Bension

Martin Mansur

Mauricio Molan

Rafael Camarena

Rodrigo Park

Salvador Orozco

Sergio Galvan

Tatiana Pinheiro

Rates & FX (Local-Market Strategy)

Alejandro Estevez Bretón

Alejandro Rivera

David Franco

David Duong

Juan Pablo Cabrera

Economics

Alejandro Estevez BretónHead of LatAm Macro Strategy



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New York, USA

(+1) 212 350 3917 | [email protected]

Alejandro Estevez BretónAlejandro Estevez Bretón

Best Recent Calls:

Our Brazilian team consistently had a lower-than-consensus GDP forecast for 2013 starting in late 2012 and almost matched the actual number (2.30% vs. 2.28%actual).

Our Mexico team started cutting its GDP forecasts in 2Q13, earlier than the consensus, based on the poor performance of some sectors, and had a few sizablereductions later in the year, with the final forecast virtually meeting the actual number (1.2% vs. 1.1%).

Our Mexico team anticipated the first Banxico rate cut early in February, way before the consensus started to move, effectively matching both the timing andmagnitude of the actual move (50-bp cut in March 2013).

Macro forecasts for USD/BRL were quite accurate in 2013, closely tracking both the quarterly and end-of-year numbers (ranked 2nd among 37 contributors onBloomberg).

Macro forecasts for USD/ARS were quite accurate in 2013, closely tracking both the quarterly and end-of-year numbers (ranked 1st among 17 contributors onBloomberg).


Hector Chavez, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1925

[email protected]

Juan Pablo Cabrera, Chile

(+56) 22 336 3389

[email protected]

Mauricio Molan, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5724

[email protected]


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Adriana Dupita, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5726

[email protected]

Cristiano Souza, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5180

[email protected]


(+52) 55 5269 1932

[email protected]

Fernando Consorte, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 7114

[email protected]

Carlos Martin Mansur, Argentina

(+54) 11 4341 1096

[email protected]

Rafael Camarena, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1927

[email protected]

Rodrigo Park, Argentina

(+54) 11 4341 1080

[email protected]

Sergio Galvan, Argentina

(+54) 11 4341 1728

[email protected]

Tatiana Pinheiro, Brazil

(+55) 11 3012 5179

[email protected]

Salvador Orozco, Mexico

(+52) 55 5269 1933

[email protected]


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FX:

(1) We went short BRL/ long MXN (opened on January 30 and closed on April 1 for a 3.8% return) on political consensus to push forward reforms in Mexico,while overall macro policy continued to deteriorate in Brazil. A partial resolution to the U.S. fiscal cliff and a substantial reduction in risks in Europe would helpthe MXN, while FX intervention would prevent BRL from moving below 2.

(2) We went short USD/BRL the next trading day after the Central Bank announced an FX intervention program (opened on August 23 and closed on September5 for a 2% return), as we thought the BRL had weakened too much and positioning was already far too crowded with long USD positions. We thought theintervention would be successful to reverse the recent losses seen in the BRL.

(3) We went long USD/COP (opened on September 24 and closed on November 12 for a 2% return), as the market seemed to move too quickly to price in thepossibility that BanRep would let its reserve accumulation program expire.

Bonds:

We bought Mexican MBonos Dec. ‘15s without FX hedge in November 2012 (opened on November 20, 2012, and closed it on September 5, 2013, for a return,including MXN gains, of 8.8%) given Banxico’s recent hawkish tone at the time, which we though would be reversed due to softening economic momentum andphasing out of the supply shock affecting inflation. Our view was that Banxico was likely to sound much less hawkish over coming months and might even opt for arate cut in 1H13.


New York, USA

(+1) 212 350 3917 | [email protected]


Alejandro Rivera, USA

(+1) 212 350 0734

[email protected]

David Duong, USA

(+1) 212 404 0979

[email protected]


(+55) 22 336 3389

[email protected]


(+52) 55 5269 1932

[email protected]


Best Recent Calls:

September 2013: Detailed commentary on Argentina judicial proceedings and impact assessment , suggesting good short-term performance despite legal uncertainty.

Flagged potential for Venezuela to underperform after recent rally, given falling liquid reserves that could prompt issuance (PDVSA issued October 2013) and overalllack of economic policy implementation. Benchmark 27s dropped 10 pts in under two months after the recommendation

November 2013: Trade idea to rotate out of Brazil front end to Colombia front end (Sell Brazil 19s vs. Buy Colom 17s) just before Fitch upgrade of Colombia.


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New York, USA

(+1) 212 350 3917 | [email protected]


Alejandro Rivera, USA

(+1) 212 350 0734

[email protected]

David Duong, USA

(+1) 212 404 0979

[email protected]


(+55) 22 336 3389

[email protected]


(+52) 55 5269 1932

[email protected]


Latin American CEO Conference

Mexico Day

Healthcare Trip

Capital Goods Trip

Education Conference

Utilities Conference

Brazil Day

Mexico Day

Equity Conference

Annual Brazil Conference

Andean Trip

EuroLatAm Infrastructure & Utilities Conference

Corporate Access



Latin American CEO ConferenceLatin American CEO Conference

LAWRENCE SUMMERS FELIPE CALDERÓN ERNESTO ZEDILLO

FERNANDO H. CARDOSO CARLOS SLIM LUIS VIDEGARAY


2014 LatAm Conference at a Glance

3,662 One-on-One Meetings

145 Participating Companies

367 Investors


US ConferencesUS Conferences



Europe ConferencesEurope Conferences



Brazil ConferencesBrazil Conferences








Latin America Coverage List ( 1 of 3 )

Coverage ListCoverage List


Agribusiness Education Financials | Banks

Cosan Anhanguera Banco de ChileCosan Limited Estácio Banco do BrasilSão Martinho Kroton Banco MacroCapital Goods SER Educacional Banco PineAlfa Electric & Other Utilities BancolombiaAutometal AES Gener BanorteGrupo Carso AES Tiete BanregioIochpe Maxion Aguas Andinas BBVA FrancesMahle Metal Leve Alupar BCIMarcopolo Cemig BradescoMexichem Cesp CorpBancaRandon Colbun CredicorpRomi Comgas DaviviendaWeg Copasa GenteraCement & Construction Copel GF GaliciaAra CPFL Energia GF InbursaCementos Argos E-CL Grupo AvalCementos Pacasmayo Eletrobras IntercorpCemex Eletropaulo Itaú UnibancoCemex LatAm Holdings Endesa Chile ItaúsaCresud Energias do BrasilFerreycorp EnersisGeo EnevaHomex EquatorialICA IAMIrsa LightOHL Mexico Renova EnergiaParque Arauco SabespUrbi Taesa

TractebelTransmissao Paulista




Financials | Non Banks Food & Beverage (ctd) Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals

AFP Habitat JBS Braskem

BB Seguridade Marfrig Ecopetrol

BM&F Bovespa Minerva HRT

Bolsa Mexicana de Valores Pesquera Exalmar IEnova

Brasil Insurance Health Care Lupatech

CETIP Dasa OGX

Cielo Fleury Pacific Rubiales

Grupo Sura OdontoPrev Petrobras

Multiplus Qualicorp Queiroz Galvão E&P

Porto Seguro Cruz Blanca Salud Tenaris

Smiles Inversiones La Construcción Ultrapar

Sul America Genomma Lab Pulp & Forest Products

Valid Metals & Mining CMPC

Food & Beverage Buenaventura Copec

Ambev CAP Duratex

Andina CSN Fibria

Arca Continental Gerdau Klabin

Brasil Foods Grupo Mexico Suzano

CCU Magnesita Real Estate

Coca-Cola FEMSA Siderar BR Malls

Concha y Toro Southern Copper BR Properties

FEMSA SQM Cyrela Brazil Realty

Gruma Ternium Direcional Engenharia

Grupo Bimbo Usiminas Even

Grupo Herdez Vale EZ Tec

Grupo Modelo Volcan Fibra Uno

Grupo Nutresa Helbor



Analyst ListCoverage ListCoverage List Corporate Access

Real Estate (ctd) Retail & Consumer Goods (ctd) Transportation

Iguatemi Lojas Americanas ALL

MRV Engenharia Lojas Renner Arteris

Multiplan Natura Asur

PDG Realty Ripley CCR

Rodobens Saraiva Copa Holdings

Rossi Residencial Soriana Ecorodovias

Tecnisa Sports World Embraer

Vesta Unicasa Móveis GAP

Retail & Consumer Goods Via Varejo Gol

Almacenes Exito Walmex JSL

Alsea Telecom, Media & Technology LATAM Airlines

B2W America Movil Localiza

CBD Entel OMA

Cencosud Linx Santos Brasil

Chedraui Oi Tegma

Cia Hering Positivo Informatica Triunfo

Comerci Sonda Volaris

Falabella Telecom Argentina

Grupo Famsa Telefonica Brasil

Grupo Sanborns Televisa

Hypermarcas TIM Participações

IMC Totvs

Kimberly Clark

Liverpool

Santander Latin AmericaResearch Team

Head of LatAm Equities: Ignacio Mendive

CATEGORY: INDUSTRIES

SECTOR TEAM LEADER OTHER TEAM MEMBERS

Corporate Debt Aaron Holsberg Mariana Emsenhuber, Victor Schmutzler

Sovereign DebtAlejandro Estevez-Breton

Alejandro Rivera, David Duong, Juan Pablo Cabrera

Local Markets StrategyAlejandro Estevez-Breton

Alejandro Rivera, David Duong, Juan Pablo Cabrera


LatAm Sales Patryck Pimpao

Alex Pallin, Axel Timmermann , Carlos Prates, Fabio Faraggi,Fernando Sanchez, Geoffrey Knoell, Jose Acuna, MariaLopez Tolentino, Mirella Borin, Nico Drohojowsky, PabloOrvananos, Santiago Mosquera, Victoria Santaella

LatAm Trading Marcio SouzaAlejandro Chavez, Benson O´Hara, Christopher Cohane,Daniel Ciotti, Darrin Cummings, James Tallarico, JasonNardella, Maury Mischel, Michael Hill, Tomas Lyon

CATEGORY: FIXED INCOME

CATEGORY: COUNTRIES


Argentina Walter Chiarvesio

Brazil Daniel Gewehr João Noronha, Valder Nogueira

Chile Francisco Errandonea Francisco Echeverria, Nicolas Schild, Rodrigo Ordoñez

Mexico Hector ChavezAna Reynal, Arturo Espinosa, David Franco, Luis Miranda,Mauricio Serna, Reinaldo Santana, Toe Matsumura

North Andean Countries Andres Soto Boris Molina, Christian Audi, Luis Miranda

CATEGORY: SALES & TRADING

CATEGORY: ECONOMICS & STRATEGY


Agribusiness Christian Audi Gustavo Allevato

Capital Goods Daniel Gewehr João Noronha, Luis Miranda, Mauricio Serna

Cement & ConstructionToe Matsumura &Fabiola Gama

Andres Soto, Jose Antonio Parra, Renan Manda, RodrigoOrdoñez, Walter Chiarvesio

Electric & Other UtilitiesMaria CarolinaCarneiro

João Saad, Nicholas Schild, Thiago Silva, Walter Chiarvesio

Financials |Banks Boris Molina Henrique Navarro, Nicholas Schild, Renata Cabral

Financials | Nonbanks Boris Molina Henrique Navarro, Nicholas Schild, Renata Cabral

Food & Beverage Luis MirandaAndres Soto, Bruno Taveira, João Mamede, Mauricio Serna,Ronaldo Kasinsky

Healthcare Daniel Gewehr Bruno Giardino, Francisco Echeverría, Reinaldo Santana

Metals & Mining Felipe Reis Alex Sciacio, Rodrigo Ordoñez, Walter Chiarvesio

Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals Christian Audi Gustavo Allevato, Walter Chiarvesio

Pulp & Forest Products Alex Sciacio Felipe Reis, Rodrigo Ordoñez

Real EstateFabiola Gama &Toe Matsumura

Renan Manda, Jose Antonio Parra

Retailing Joao MamedeReinaldo Santana, Andres Soto, Bruno Taveira, MauricioSerna, Ronaldo Kasinsky

Telecom, Media &Technology

Valder NogueiraBruno Mendonça, Francisco Errandonea, Rodrigo Ordoñez,Walter Chiarvesio

Transportation Pedro Balcão Ana Reynal, Bruno Amorim


EconomicsAlejandro Estevez-Breton

Adriana Dupita, Cristiano Souza, David Franco, FernandaConsorte, Hector Chavez, Juan Pablo Cabrera, MarcelaBension, Martin Mansur, Mauricio Molan, Pablo Correa,Rafael Camarena, Rodrigo Park, Salvador Orozco, SergioGalván, Tatiana Pinheiro

Equity Strategy Jesus GomezAnders Soto, Arturo Espinosa, Daniel Gewehr, FranciscoErrandonea, Hector Chavez, João Noronha, Stefano Rizzi,Walter Chiarvesio

Santander Brazil ResearchTeam

When placing your votes for the All-Brazil Research team, please select the Team Leaders only.Once again, thank you for your consideration.


Agribusiness Christian Audi Gustavo Allevato

Capital Goods Daniel Gewehr João Noronha

Chemicals & Oil Christian Audi Gustavo Allevato

Education Bruno Giardino Daniel Gewehr

Electric & Other Utilities Maria Carolina Carneiro Thiago Silva, João Saad

Financials/Banks Henrique Navarro Boris Molina, Renata Cabral

Financial Nonbanks Henrique Navarro Boris Molina, Renata Cabral

Food & Beverage João MamedeRonaldo Kasinsky, Bruno Taveira,

Luis Miranda

Metals & Mining Felipe Reis Alex Sciacio

Pulp & Paper Alex Sciacio Felipe Reis

Retailing João MamedeRonaldo Kasinsky, Bruno Taveira,

Luis Miranda

Technology, Media &

TelecommunicationsValder Nogueira Bruno Mendonça

Transportation Pedro Balcão Reis Bruno Amorim

Category: INDUSTRIES


Economics Mauricio Molan

Adriana Dupita, Cristiano Souza, FernandaConsorte, Juan Pablo Cabrera, TatianaPinheiro

Equity Strategy Daniel Gewehr João Noronha, Jesus Gomez

Category: ECONOMICS & STRATEGY


Corporate Debt Victor SchmutzlerMariana Emsenhuber, Aaron Holsberg,Alejandro Estevez

Sovereign DebtAlejandro Estevez-Breton

Alejandro Rivera, Brendan Hurley, DavidDuong

Category: FIXED INCOME


Brazil Sales Fernando SanchezCarlos Prates, Mirella Borin, EduardoToledo

Brazil Trading Fernando Sanchez

Vito Madio Mastrorosa, Carlos AugustoFaria, Lucas Gonçalves, Daniel Ciotti, CesarTashiro , Vinicius Nogueira, Ana Paula VonHauenschild , Anderson Souza , DayanePereira , Fernando Ferez

Category: SALES & TRADING

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Santander LatAm Handbook - Pessoa Física - Santander LatA… · Real Estate Fabiola Gama / Toe ... The team recently created a one-stop-shop chart book for the ... We initiated coverage