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Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Modeling Keith Nelson [email protected] Arizona Department of Water Resources

Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

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Page 1: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Santa Cruz AMA HydrologySanta Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater

Modeling

Keith Nelson [email protected]

Arizona Department of Water Resources

Page 2: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz)

Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections

Groundwater Flow Models

Stochastic Streamflow Model

Combining Streamflow and Groundwater Flow Models

Risk Analysis Examples

Santa Cruz AMA Goals § 45-562C: 1) “Maintain Safe-Yield Conditions”

2) “Prevent local water tables from experiencing long-term declines”

Page 3: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow
Page 4: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow
Page 5: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

1. Flood Event

Transmission

Losses in Channel

2. Aquifer Recharge: Water Table Rise ->

Baseflow?

3. Periods of Low / No Recharge combined

w/ Aquifer Stresses & Flux: GWL Decline

Page 6: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Relation between Surface water flow and Groundwater Levels

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

7/1/00 7/2/02 7/2/04 7/3/06 7/3/08

Su

rfa

ce

wa

ter

flo

w (

cfs

)

3390

3395

3400

3405

3410

3415

3420

3425

3430

3435

Ob

se

rve

d g

rou

nd

wa

ter

lev

el

(ft)

Stream Flow - Santa Cruz River: Baseflow Gaining (green); losing (red)

<---Intensive Drought---->

1

10

100

1000

10000

10/1/95 9/30/97 10/1/99 9/30/01 10/1/03 9/30/05 10/1/07 9/30/09

flow

(cfs

)

Page 7: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow
Page 8: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Groundwater Elevations at (D-23-14) BCB1 (GWSI and transducer data)

Groundwater levels prior to 1972 reduced 10 feet to account for measurement-point offset. Connected points reflect

seasonal measurements observed at frequencies > than once per year

3550

3560

3570

3580

3590

3600

3610

1/1/1940 12/31/1949 1/1/1960 12/31/1969 1/1/1980 1/1/1990 1/1/2000 1/1/2010

Gro

un

dw

ate

r L

ev

el

(fe

et)

Surface Water Flow at Nogales: Winter flows,

December 1st - March 31st

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

1/1/1931 12/31/1940 1/1/1951 12/31/1960 1/1/1971 12/31/1980 1/1/1991 12/31/2000 1/1/2011

Page 9: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Hydrologic Model

DOS Batch Program

inter-changing modules

~8 hrs on a 2X2.66GHZ; 3G

RAM

Stochastic

Stream Model >

Convert to

Stream-aquifer BC’s

Translate

Stream BC +

Demand >

through 6 ACM’s:

Analysis of Simulated

Heads and Flows:

trends; patterns

Inter-arrival stats

(MATLAB; FOXPRO)

Page 10: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Simulated Heads at Tumacacori: Base Model (shown) Realization #2 ("dry")

Years 1-90 Infrequent Flood Recharge; Years 91-100 Frequent Flood

Recharge

3205

3210

3215

3220

3225

3230

3235

3240

3245

0 3650 7300 10950 14600 18250 21900 25550 29200 32850 36500

time (days) 100 years

Sim

ulat

ed h

eads

(fee

t)

Pumpage = 15,000 AF/YR; Mean = 3235'

Pumpage = 19,000 AF/YR; Mean = 3231'

(D-21-13)19acc: Nearby adjusted observed,

historical range (pre-effluent) = 22'

Page 11: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Distribution of Simulated Heads at Chavez Siding, 100X6 ACM

Assigned Pumpage 15K

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

3090 3100 3110 3120 3130 3140 3150

Distribution of simulated head elevation (feet above MSL) for each time step

Fre

qu

en

cy

(to

tal =

4.2

E6

)

Page 12: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Pumping 15K: 75% chance gaining conditions will occur less than half of the time

Pumping 13K: 30% chance gaining conditions will occur less than half of the time

Years with Simulated Net Groundwater Discharge Between NIWTP and Tubac (100 max)

[100 Stream Realizations X 6 ACM's] X 6 Well Pumping Demands (from 11K to 23K AF/YR)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Years with Groundwater Discharge (net gain) between the NIWTP and Tubac (out of 100 years)

Cu

mm

ula

tive P

rob

ab

ilit

y (

pd

f's)

Assu

med

No

rmal D

istr

ibu

tio

n

11 K 13 K 15 K

17 K 19 K 21 K

23K

Relation Between Pumpage and Occurrence of Groundwater Discharge (Gain)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

11000 13000 15000 17000 19000 21000 23000

Groundwater Pumpage (AF/YR)

Years

wit

h g

rou

nd

wate

r d

isch

arg

e (

net

gain

)

betw

een

NIW

TP

an

d T

ub

ac (

ou

t o

f 100 y

ears

) 95th percentile (6 ACM)

50th percentile (6 ACM)

5th Percentile (6 ACM)

Page 13: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Findings

Apply models that are not adversely biased!

Simulate many plausible realizations

Ensemble results reveal system central tendencies

Reduce risk of ‘model’ bias impacting projection

Sensitive to Flood Recharge Inter-arrival Periods and Duration periods (trends)

Inner Valleys Probably Require Simulation at Seasonal Stress Periods

Broader extents and/or aquifers buffered by aquitards or distance may be simulated at annualized stress periods (or longer) along losing reaches

Sensitive to ACM and boundary conditions

Page 14: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Tucson AMA Model

(DRAFT Projection)

1940-65: 33,750 AF/yr (28%)

1966-95: 52,780 AF/yr(51%)

1996-2010: 43,950 AF/yr (21%)

Typical Prescott AMA Hydrograph (Below)

Page 15: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Elephant Head/Amado-North

Chavez Siding (Tubac-north)

Canoa

Page 16: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow
Page 17: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow
Page 18: Santa Cruz AMA Hydrology & Groundwater Santa Cruz AMA ... · Overview of Hydrology (Upper Santa Cruz) Hydrologic Models 1) Understand System; 2) Simulate Projections Groundwater Flow

Questions?

Thanks to ADWR Basic Data & Survey Units; Hydrologic

Research Center (San Diego); USGS (Tucson); U of A; Santa

Cruz AMA GUAC and staff; IBWC; FOSCR; AZ State Parks