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10 COUNTY BUDGETING CONFERENCE
September 16, 2010 - Pueblo Convention Center
Rob Terranova, RE/MAX Mountain States--Worldwide Headquarters - Denver
www.bankrate.com
4.89%5.33%
5.07% 5.08% 5.12% 5.13%4.92% 4.61% 4.59% 4.33%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10
Historical Graphs For Mortgage Rates: Long-Term Trends
30-Year FRM, 15-Year FRM, 1-Year ARM Rates, 1992 - 2010:
Current Inventory in U.S.
3.83 Million Homes
Source: NAR
9.2
8.07.2
6.57.2
7.88.5 8.1 8.4 8.3
8.9
12.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
10.0% 10.0%
9.7% 9.7% 9.7%
9.9%
9.7%
9.5% 9.5%
9.6%
9.2%
9.3%
9.4%
9.5%
9.6%
9.7%
9.8%
9.9%
10.0%
10.1%
Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10
125,000 Jobs a month to keep up
with population
200,000 Jobs a month needed to
show improvement
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-0.70%
0.06%
-4.00%
-6.80%
-4.90%
-0.70%
1.60%
5.00%
3.70%
1.60%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
Q2-10Q1-10Q4-09Q3-09
Q2-09
Q1-09
Q4-08
Q3-08
Q2-08
Q1-08
Source: www.inflationdata.com-1.29%
-0.18%
1.84%
2.72% 2.63%
2.14%2.31%
2.24%2.02%
1.05%1.24%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09Dec-09
Jan-10Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10May-10
Jun-10July10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Q1 2005
Q2 2005
Q3 2005
Q4 2005
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
Q2 2007
Q3 2007
Q4 2007
Q1 2008
Q2 2008
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
Year
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
5.1M5.6M
5.98M
6.49M
5.44M5.05M 5.01M
5.36M5.79M
5.66M5.26M
3.83M
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate By Month
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
New Home Sales
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
1975-1976
+23.75%
1982-1983
+35.53%
1991-1992
+9.09%
2001-2002
+5.53%
Source: National Association of REALTORS ® 2009
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
New Home Sales Existing Home Sales
© Copyright Campbell Communications. All Rights Reserved.
36.5% 36.7%39.3%
37.7%
41.4%
40.6%
41.2%
37.5%
33.5%
38.7%
39.6%
38.9%
41.3%42.4% 42.5% 42.0%
46.9%
44.9%
42.5%
39.8%
42.9%
48.2%
43.4%42.0% 42.4%
39.1%
21.1% 20.8%
18.7%
15.4%13.7%
16.9%
19.0% 19.5%18.3% 18.0% 18.3% 18.6%
19.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Current Homeowner
First-Time Homebuyer
Investor
Homebuyer Participation
Perc
ento
f Buy
-Sid
e Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
© Copyright Campbell Communications. All Rights Reserved.
18.618.2 18.4
17.7
16.2
19.5 19.5
20.5
17.7
16.4
17.9
16.215.8
13.512.9
14.214.7
14.1
15.715.0
13.414.0 13.7
13.212.6
13.8
9.99.5
7.0 7.4
8.9
8.8
8.6 8.4 8.2
10.5 10.6
8.0
11.1
8.1
8.1
6.0
9.8
8.5
8.8
6.9 7.1
10.1
9.79.1
9.2
10.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Short Sale
Non-Distressed
Damaged REO
Move-In Ready REO
Time on Market Trends
Aver
age
Tim
e in
Wee
ks
© Copyright Campbell Communications. All Rights Reserved.
$273,900$268,700$268,800
$264,500
$278,400
$290,500 $290,500
$252,000
$249,800$254,700
$262,100
$250,000
$272,200
$220,100
$203,800
$229,100
$217,300
$233,400$240,800 $240,800
$219,300
$202,300
$213,700$221,600
$207,600 $206,100
$186,500
$178,700
$199,700 $196,700
$208,900
$183,200
$220,500
$195,100
$179,200
$191,800
$196,200
$183,000$189,500
$95,700
$106,100
$124,200 $129,900$125,200
$130,200
$121,600$117,200
$103,600
$116,600$112,400
$119,100
$107,100
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Non-Distressed
Short Sale
Move-In Ready REO
Damaged REO
Home Price Trends
Aver
age
Pric
e
© Copyright Campbell Communications. All Rights Reserved.
12.5%12.9%
13.7%
15.1%
12.4%
13.7%
15.9%
17.1%
18.6%
17.9%17.3%
18.1%17.5%
17.9%16.0% 16.1%
14.5%12.6%
13.1%
13.8%
16.6%
17.7%
16.3%
15.9%15.2%
13.8%
19.8% 18.1%
15.0%
12.8%12.3% 12.4%
13.4%
14.4%
15.4%
12.8%
13.8%
13.0% 13.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Short Sale
Move-In Ready REO
Damaged REO
Distressed Property Segments
Perc
ento
f Buy
-Sid
e Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
© Copyright Campbell Communications. All Rights Reserved.
50.2%
47.0%
44.8%
42.4%
37.3%39.3%
43.1%
48.1%
51.6%
46.9% 47.0% 46.3%44.5%
42.4% 42.5%
42.0%
46.9%
44.9%
42.5%
39.8%
42.9% 48.2%
43.4%
42.0% 42.4%
39.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Distressed Properties
First-Time Homebuyers
Distressed PropertySupply and Demand Drivers
Perc
ento
f Buy
-Sid
e Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
© Copyright Campbell Communications. All Rights Reserved.
50.2%
47.0%
44.8%
42.4%
37.3%39.3%
43.1%
48.1%
51.6%
46.9% 47.0% 46.3%44.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
Proportion of Distressed Property
Perc
ento
f Buy
-Sid
e Tr
ansa
ctio
ns
© Copyright Campbell Communications. All Rights Reserved.
11%14%
19% 21%
13% 14%8%
13%10%
6%
27%17%
14%13%
13% 14%
10%
8% 13%
6%
30%
29% 26%
10%
18%11%
17% 13% 5%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—July 2010
Per
cent
of T
otal
Tra
nsac
tions
Short Sale
Move- In Ready REO
Damaged REO
358,471
343,638
332,292
306,627
349,519
315,716308,524
367,056
333,837
322,920313,841
325,229
270,000
280,000
290,000
300,000
310,000
320,000
330,000
340,000
350,000
360,000
370,000
380,000
Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10
17%
30% 31%
53%25%
51%46%
37%58%
19%23%
9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Damaged REO
Move-In Ready REO
Short Sale Non-Distressed
Investor
First-Time Homebuyer
Current Homeowner
Perc
ent
of P
rope
rty T
ype
Who Is Buying Properties?─July 2010
26%
7%
74%25% 61%
2%
19%
11%
6%
4%
7%
27%
14% 17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors
All Other Financing
VA
Fannie/Freddie
FHA
Cash
Per
cent
of
Buy
er-S
ide
Tran
sact
ions
Financing for Homebuyers─July 2010
Mortgage Resets
Next Wave of Mortgage Defaults
We are here
today
Option ARMs: $ Billions/month
To May 2010 – Source: CO Department of Local Affairs – Division of Housing
To May 2010 – Source: CO Department of Local Affairs – Division of Housing
Quarterly Change from Q2-2007 to Q2-2010Adams Arapahoe Boulder Douglas El Paso Jefferson Larimer Mesa Pueblo Weld
Average DOM Q2 2007 108 84 102 77 79 82 113 89 98 129
Average DOM Q2 2010 71 76 97 93 80 81 104 129 64 105
Percent Change -34.26% -9.52% -4.90% 20.78% 1.27% -1.22% -7.96% 44.94% -34.69% -18.60%
Median Price, Listings Sold Q2 2007 176,700 207,838 312,500 315,000 210,000 238,000 217,500 219,900 157,500 189,900
Median Price, Listings Sold Q2 2010 164,900 192,000 303,800 286,950 185,000 225,650 212,500 185,000 147,500 169,900
Percent Change -6.68% -7.62% -2.78% -8.90% -11.90% -5.19% -2.30% -15.87% -6.35% -10.53%
For Sale # Units Q2 2007 8,882 11,103 5,933 7,434 13,247 9,921 6,763 1,081 244 5,601
For Sale # Units Q2 2010 5,064 8,113 4,854 5,928 10,753 7,505 5,725 538 272 3,578
Percent Change -42.99% -26.93% -18.19% -20.26% -18.83% -24.35% -15.35% -50.23% 11.48% -36.12%
Under Contract # Q2 Units 2007 2,094 2,856 1,689 2,039 3,184 2,801 1,854 N/A 54 1,199
Under Contract # Q2 Units 2010 1,642 2,462 1,089 1,440 2,613 2,012 1,349 N/A 52 860
Percent Change -21.59% -13.80% -35.52% -29.38% -17.93% -28.17% -27.24% N/A -3.70% -28.27%
Sold # Units Q2 2007 2,121 2,880 1,629 2,044 3,217 2,876 1,849 N/A 58 1,235
Sold # Units Q2 2010 1,774 2,657 1,336 1,502 2,771 2,250 1,676 N/A 58 1,092
Percent Change -16.36% -7.74% -17.99% -26.52% -13.86% -21.77% -9.36% N/A 0.00% -11.58%
Adams County Supply & Demand
Arapahoe County Supply & Demand
Boulder County Supply & Demand
Douglas County Supply & Demand
El Paso County Supply & Demand
Jefferson County Supply & Demand
Larimer County Supply & Demand
Mesa County Price, DOM, Listing Count
QuarterQ2-2007
QuarterQ2-2007
Pueblo County Supply & Demand
Weld County Supply & Demand
Adams County Median Sale Price
Arapahoe County Median Sale Price
Boulder County Median Sale Price
Douglas County Median Sale Price
El Paso County Median Sale Price
Jefferson County Median Sale Price
Larimer County Median Sale Price
Pueblo County Median Sale Price
Weld County Median Sale Price
Adams County Days on Market
Arapahoe County Days on Market
Boulder County Days on Market
Douglas County Days on Market
El Paso County Days on Market
Jefferson County Days on Market
Larimer County Days on Market
Pueblo County Days on Market
Weld County Days on Market
Matures
Born between 1909 and 1945
35 million people, age 65+
Potential DownsizersSource: Cam Marston, Generational Insight, 2009
Born between 1946-1964
80 million people, age 45-63
Huge influence for 40 years
Boomers
Source: Cam Marston, Generational Insight, 2009
Born between 1965 and 197948 million people, age 30-44
Very skepticalBuying right now
Gen X
Source: Cam Marston, Generational Insight, 2009
Rate of births sank to low levels in 1973 - 1976
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services: National Center for Health Statistics, 2009
Millennials
Born between 1980 and 1995
74 million people, age 14-29Represent the future workforce in America
Entering prime home-buying years
Immigrants &minorities
Immigrants and Minorities have huge impact on
Household Formation, a key part of demand
New households dipped to 800,000 this year
•Immigrants and Minorities will fuel three-fourths of new
household formations in the next 10 years
•Minority share of total households will go from 29% to 35%
•Huge growth in the number of Asian and Hispanic
households; 7 Million new households in the next decade.(Compared to 5 Million in the last 10 years)
Harvard Report
•Written by: Theodore Levitt and was first published in 1960 in the
Harvard Business Review.
•The theme is that the vision of most organizations is too constricted by
narrow understanding of what business they are in.
Examples:
•The Railroad Industry
• Motion Picture Industry
