SAMPLE OF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS FOR TROPICAL STORM ALLISON

SPENESMessage

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALLTTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 6/06/01 0435Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678VALUES ARE MAX OR SGFNT EST. NO OROGRAPHIC CORRECTION UNLESS NOTED.......EST'S FM:/GOES8-CNTRL AND E. U.S./GOES10-W. U.S... LATEST DATA USED: GOES-8 0415Z RB AUTOESTIMATOR: 0400Z. LOCATION...SE TEXAS.EVENT...SML AREA VRY HVY RNS ASSCTD WITH ALLISON GIVES 2-3" AMTS ESTD NEHARRIS/E MONTGOMERY CNTYS WITH UP TO 5.5" LCLY FOR PST 6HRS. NOTE RPD COOLINGOF CLD TOPS WITH HVY RNS CONTG..SATELLITE ANALYSIS/TRENDS...CNTR OF ALLISON APRS TO BE W OF GLS MOVG SLOLYNWD. BALL OF HVY RNS NE HARRIS/E MONTGOMERY CNTYS PRBLY MORE ASSCTD WITHMID/UPR CNTR AND MOVG ONLY VRY SLOLY NNWWD SO XPECT HVY RNS TO CONT. VRY HIMSTR AVLBL WITH PW/S PRBLY NR 2.5" LOOKING AT 00Z RAOBS WHICH WUD SUPPORT RNRATES 2-3"/HR LCLY. LST IMAGE SHOWS DRAMATIC COOLING AT CNTR OF HVY RNSINDICATING RN RATES STILL PRBLY LCLY AS HI AS 2-3"/HR. NORMALLY CLD TOPS WUDWRM AS TROP STM MOVS INLAND AS HAS HAPPENED PST 3-4HRS ALTHO RNS WUD BE SLOTO WKN..BUT NOW WE SEE A DRAMATIC COOLING INDICATING AN INCRS IN HVY RNS ANDINDICATING A CONTINUATION OF HVY RNS NEXT SVRL HRS AND PRBLY THRU THE NIGHT..AUTOESTIMATOR RNFL ESTIMATES...SE TX COUNTIES... HRLY RATES AMOUNT TIME E HARRIS/SE MONTGOMERY 1.5-2.5"/HR GENLY 2.0-3.0" ISOLD UP TO 5.5" 22-04Z.SEE GRAPHICAL PRODUCT ON INTERNET AT HOME PAGE ADDRESS BELOW......SEE NCEP HPC FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS....HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/SSD/ML/PCPN-NDX.HTML...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT SSD/ML...[ONLINE SSD PRECIP PRODUCT INDEX] .LAT...LON 3000 9700 3000 9400 2900 9400 2900 9700NNNN

SAB PRECIPITATION PROGRAM

TROPICAL STORM ALLISON AND ITS REMNANTS – June 5 to 17, 2001 (12 days duration)

118 SPENES Messages sent by SAB and 115 Estimate Graphics on the Internet

SPENES Message

IR - 2245Z/June 5, 2001 Visible 2245Z

6 hour Auto-Estimates

3/9/04

WHY ARE SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES USED/NEEDED?

• SUPPLEMENTS RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES – where there is inadequate rain gauge coverage, no radar coverage, or missing radar coverage

• SPATIAL CONSISTENCY – only one instrument (GOES satellite) to calibrate rather than multiple radars. Thus there are no calibration differences, range effects, or beam block problems that can occur with radar.

PRECIPITATION PROGRAM OF NOAA/NESDIS/SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH

Products Satellite Rainfall (and snowfall) Estimates - graphics. SPENES Alphanumeric Guidance Messages - lists estimates and provides

satellite analysis and flash flood/heavy precipitation guidance. Regular Briefings and Support for the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)

Location Lower 48 states and Puerto Rico.

Purpose To provide satellite-derived (weather) analysis, trends, and precipitation estimates to the National Weather

Service (NWS) in support of Flash Flood/Heavy Snow Watches, Warnings, and Advisories.

Satellite Data Used GOES 10 & 12: IR, WV, Vis Imagery; Derived Product Imagery; GOES Sounder Data. DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellites): SSM/I Microwave rain rate and PW data.• NOAA-15 & 16: AMSU (Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit) rain rates and PW. • NASA TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) rain rates

Product FrequencyAs needed - when flash flooding/heavy snow is occurring or is developing.

IFFA (Interactive Flash Flood Analyzer) McIDAS based computer system used to do satellite analysis and derive rainfall estimates interactively using thefollowing techniques: Convective Storm Technique (cold and warm tops) - most frequently used. Winter Storm Technique - for rain and snow with extratropical cyclones. Tropical Storm Technique - for tropical storms and hurricanes. Lake Effect Snow.

Automatic Estimator McIDAS based computer that derives estimates quickly with little human intervention - became operational in June2000; Hydro-Estimator version became operational in September 2002.

CustomersNational Weather Service (NWS) - Forecast Offices, River Forecast Centers, and the HydrometeorologicalPrediction Center (HPC).

Distribution Internet; Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)

• 1979 First Estimates

• 1983 - Fully Operational - using McIDAS system - SPENES messages on AFOS

• 1993 - Collocated with NCEP/HPC, forming NPPU - better QPF support

• 1996 - Estimate Graphics and SPENES messages on Internet - SSD Web Page

• 1997 - Orographic Correction added - for short-term estimates

• 2000 - Combined IFFA/Auto-Estimator Operation• 2002 – Hydroestimator – new version of Auto-Estimator

HISTORY OF IFFA/QPE OPERATION

HISTORY OF IFFA/QPE OPERATION

Satellite Analysis BranchPrecipitation Products and Services

For WSFO’s and RFC’s (lower 48 states; Puerto Rico):

1) Satellite Precipitation Estimate Messages (SPENES)

2) Satellite Precipitation Estimate Graphics

..…For Heavy Precip.,especially Flash Flood Events

For Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC):

Satellite Briefings and Precipitation Estimates

SPENES ContentsSPENES Contents

1. IFFA/Autoestimator/Hydroestimator Rain Est. (Hourly rates; 1, 3, 6, 24 Hour Totals

2. Satellite Analysis and Trends (and nowcast) Satellite Data Used: GOES IR, VIS, WV GOES Sounder and Imager Data and Derived Product Imagery (DPI) GOES Satellite Winds Microwave: DMSP SSM/I (rain rates and PW) NOAA AMSU (rain rates, PW) NASA TRMM (rain rates)

Additional Input for SPENES’s

• Surface and Upper Air Data and Analyses

• Radar – NAWIPS and McIDAS

• Model Data - from AWIPS and NCEP NAWIPS

• Experimental Blended Products - satellite and model data

• Internet Data

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALLSPENESTTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM .SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/29/04 1130ZSATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678VALUES ARE MAX OR SGFNT EST. OROGRAPHIC CORRECTION IN AUTO-ESTS..EST'S FM:/GOES12-CNTRL AND E. U.S./GOES10-W. U.S... LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0215Z GALLINA .LOCATION...NEW YORK....EVENT...VERY STRONG LES OFF LK ONTARIO/QUIETED DOWN OFF LK ERIE....GOES ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPDATE FROM LAST SPE...AREA OF COOL CLOUD TOPSASSOCIATED WITH LAKE ERIE LES HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE AND HAS DIMINISHED INSIZE AND IS REALLY ONLY RELEGATED TO CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES INWESTERN NY. TOTALS UP TO 2.6 HAVE BEEN ESITIMATED IN S ERIE.

ELSEWHERE...WAVERING WIND DIRECTION HAS DECREASED THE WIDTH OF THE VERY LONGLAKE EFFECT WEST-EAST BAND NEAR THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE INTO OSWEGOCOUNTY. RATES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH AND 6 HOUR TOTALS ARE UP TO 5.6".

INTERESTING TO NOTE AT THIS POINT IS THE PERSISTENT COOLING TOPS JUST NORTH OFMONROE AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. THIS AREA HAS HAD INCREASED FETCH DUE TO SEEDINGFROM THE LAKE EFFECT PLUME FROM ST. GEORGES BAY ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. IF THISPLUME WERE TO MOVE ONSHORE...ESTIMATED RATES WOULD BE UP TO 3.5"/HR USING THELES IR TECHNIQUE. NOTE ON THE GRAPHIC...THERE ARE HIGH ESTIMATES IN ORLEANSCOUNTY ALREADY...BUT THIS IS AN EFFECT OF PARALLAX CORRECTIONS AND SHOULD BESHIFTED ABOUT A HALF COUNTY NORTH. .IFFA LAKE EFFECT SNOW ESTIMATES... 6 HR SNOW TOTALS TIMEC NY...OFF LAKE ONTARIO... N OSWEGO 5.6" 0515Z-1115Z S JEFFERSON 3.9" N ONEIDA 3.3" N ORLEANS 2.2"W NY...OFF LAKE ERIE... S ERIE (BOARDER WITH CATTARAUGUS) 2.6" " CHAUTAUQUA 2.3" " CATTARAUGUS 2.3" ".GRAPHIC FOR THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY ON THE INTERNET AT ADDRESS BELOW..1 HOUR HYDRO-ESTIMATOR TOTALS ARE AVAILABLE ON AWIPS UNDER 1 HR AUTO SPE.HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT PS/PCPN...[ONLINE SSD PRECIP PRODUCT INDEX] .LAT...LON 4400 7900 4500 7400 4300 7500 4200 8000NNNN

Example of SPENES with manual IFFA estimates for Lake Effect Snow

IFFA (Snow) Estimate Graphic posted on Web Page - EXAMPLE

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALLSPENESTTAA00 KNFD DDHHMM .SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/04/04 1155Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678VALUES ARE MAX OR SGFNT EST. OROGRAPHIC CORRECTION IN AUTO-ESTS..EST'S FM:/GOES12-CNTRL AND E. U.S./GOES10-W. U.S... LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1145Z TEB .LOCATION...OKLAHOMA.ATTN WFO'S...OUN...ICT.EVENT...CONVECTION..SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING CLOUDTOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING LINE OF CELLS. WV AND SOUNDERDATA SHOWS THESE CELLS TO BE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE DEEP MOISTUREASSOCIATED WITH THE PLUME SHOOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTOEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE HYDROESTIMATOR SUGGESTS HRLY RATES UP TO 1.4" THRU1130Z MAINLY FROM OKLAHOMA INTO LINCOLN CNTYS IN CENTRAL OK. HOWEVERWITH DEWPOINTS RISING QUICKLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ANDAFOREMENTIONED PLUME TRANSPORTING RICH, DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD...FFGRATES MAY BE REACHABLE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIESOF OK AND S.E. KS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR..AUTOMATED SATELLITE HYDROESTIMATESOK CNTYS... TOTAL TIME N.E. OKLAHOMA 1.9" 0830-1130Z .SEE GRAPHIC OF AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT WEB ADDRESS LISTED BELOW .1 HR HYDRO-ESTIMATOR TOTALS ARE ON AWIPS UNDER 1 HOUR AUTO SPE...NESDIS SAB HAS BEEN ADDED TO 12 PLANET....SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT PS/PCPN...[ONLINE SSD PRECIP PRODUCT INDEX] .LAT...LON 3800 9900 3800 9600 3500 9600 3500 9900

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Example of SPENES message with automated satellite Hydroestimates

Automated Hydroestimator Graphic posted on Web Page - EXAMPLE

Hydroestimator Products at NESDIS

• Every 15 Minutes: – Instantaneous Rate– 1 hour totals– 3 hour totals– 6 hour totals

• Daily (12Z):– 24 hour totals

Factors in Derivation of HYDROESTIMATES

• 15 min imagery• Cloud top temperature• Original AE…Radar reflectivity for rain/no rain• Hydro-Estimator (Auto SPE on AWIPS)…no radar - uses satellite-based screening technique• Moisture correction – (Precipitable Water and RH)• Orographic correction• Warm cloud tops/equilibrium level adjustment• Parallax (satellite viewing angle)

Example of AWIPS Hydro-Estimator graphic,Called “1 hr Auto Satellite Precip Estimates” (SPE)

Click on “NCEP/Hydro” on Menu BarTo Access the Pull Down Menu

1 hr Auto SPE

Manual SPE

Hydro-Estimator vs. Manual IFFAHydro-Estimator vs. Manual IFFA

Manual IFFA (Interactive Flash Flood Analyzer):

•Satellite-derived Precip Estimates determined by satellite meteorologist - uses cloud top temp, PWxRH, warm top correction, etc, experience, cloud top temp change and growth, cell mergers, and rain burst.

•Computer (McIDAS) stores and totals estimates

Hydroestimator (New version of Autoestimator) :•Satellite-derived Precip Estimates determined by computer (algorithm) - uses cloud top temp, PW&RH, warm top correction, etc, does not use cloud top temp change and growth, cell mergers, or rain burst.

Future Hydro-Estimator Improvements:Future Hydro-Estimator Improvements:Current or Planned Testing…..Current or Planned Testing…..

• Rain Burst – increase amounts for 1st hour

• Cloud Top Cooling and Growth

• Single Channel → Multi-channel sensor

- (GOES Channels; Microwave; other algorithms)

• Use of GOES Sounder PW, RH, Equil. Level

• Improved Calibration of H-E rain rate curves

• Nowcast Version of H-E (0-3 hr rainfall fcst)

• Validation Efforts: H-E vs Stage III & Gages

Web Sites for NESDIS Satellite Estimates

• Satellite Services Division (SSD) Home Page- SAB Operational Products

• http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN- Satellite Precipitation Estimate Messages (SPENES)- Auto Satellite Precip Estimates or

Interactive Flash Flood Analyzer (IFFA) graphics

• ORA Flash Flood Home Page- Multi-hour Hydro-Estimator Products

• http://orbit-net.nesdis.noaa.gov/arad/ht/ff/index.html