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sales@spotsndots.com Copyright 2018.The Daily News of TV Sales Thursday, August 29, 2019

KAGAN: RETRANS REVENUE GROWTH SLOWING As the unofficial end of the summer season arrives, there’s a lot of nailbiting about where the economy may be heading in the months to come. “Everybody is fearful in what it could mean in terms of a recession next year. There will still be political dollars, but core (business) has been pretty soft this year,” said Justin Nielson, a senior research analyst at Kagan, the media team inside S&P Global Market Intelligence. “We really expected the second quarter core business to pick up a little bit because in the last year the displacement of political that came in. But from some of the guidance that was given out by the major TV station groups, national (advertising) is coming in a little bit lighter than they expected. Local is still up single digits, but national is down low- to mid-single digits.” Kagan forecasts core TV station revenue to be up 1.7 percent in 2019, led by a 1.8 percent increase in local billings and a 1.4 percent increase in national. With an expected 6 percent growth rate for local TV’s digital business, including online sales, Kagan predicts core revenue will be up 2 percent this year. But when an estimated 68 percent drop in political sales is factored in, the firm estimates total industry revenue will be down 7 percent, which Nielson said is “typical” in a non-political year. And even though national business hasn’t met expectations, Nielson said that could change in the remainder of the second half. “If there’s a fairly good shopping season, you’re going to get an influx of retail spending in the third and fourth quarter,” he said. It’s not just advertising revenue that’s under pressure. So are retransmission consent fees — the money cable and satellite distributors pay to stations to carry their signals. “Retrans revenue is still growing by double digits, but on a sequential quarter-over-quarter basis that growth is slowing,” Nielson said. For now, retrans is holding strong. Kagan forecasts TV station owners’ retrans fees will total $11.72 billion in 2019, up 11 percent from 2018, thanks to higher rates included in renewal deals. Longer term, Kagan projects retrans and virtual sub fees will grow to $16.26 billion by 2024. But that’s only part of the story. “Everything everyone is saying about cord-cutting is happening. You can see it in the numbers,” Nielson said. And while he expects the upcoming football season to bring an end to any current blackouts, he expects to see growing “resistance” from television distributors and programmers. “It’s going to be tough because there’s going to be a lot of fragmentation, and I think cord-cutting is just going to accelerate,” Nielson said. And there’s not a lot local TV groups can do. “I think they just need to tamper expectations a little bit,” he said. The growth of addressable TV brought about by the

(Continued on Page 3)

CORE TV BUSINESS, NATIONAL BOTH SOFT THIS YEAR ADVERTISER NEWS Whole Foods was the top spender in grocery advertising in the U.S. during the second quarter of 2019, according to Kantar. RetailDive says before it was purchased by Amazon, Whole Foods ranked 10th in ad spending. It has trended upward since the acquisition, spending roughly $18 million on advertisements in Q2 this year compared with about $4.3 million in Q2 2016. Kroger was the second

most active grocery advertiser with $15 million in ad spending, and Publix ranked third with $10.3 million... Walmart is taking several steps to court millennials as they start families and start to earn higher wages,

including acquiring and partnering with digital brands such as BuzzFeed’s Tasty food network. This fall, CBS News reports, the retailer will launch “InHome Delivery,” a grocery delivery service for online shoppers that includes refrigerator restocking... Subscription clothing rental service Le Tote will acquire Lord & Taylor from Hudson’s Bay in a deal valued at $100 million, the companies said yesterday. The deal, which is contingent on Le Tote securing financing within 45 days, includes the Lord & Taylor brand and other assets such as inventory, intellectual property, digital retail channels and 38 brick-and-mortar department stores, CNBC reports... British luxury e-commerce player Farfetch doesn’t have plans to buy Barneys New York, contrary to a newspaper report saying otherwise, both companies say... About 41 percent of women ages 25-44 were unmarried last year, and the number is on track to hit a record 45 percent by 2030, Morgan Stanley reports. Quartz reports the trend is positive for workout wear brands because single women spend more time working out than their married counterparts... Kroger and grocery e-commerce partner Ocado will build one of 20 planned U.S. automated warehouses on a 55-acre parcel of land in Dallas, The Dallas Morning News reports. Each of the facilities will cost about $55 million to build, and Kroger broke ground on the first one in Ohio earlier this summer... Panera Bread customers now have multiple on-demand delivery options, Chain Store Age reports. The QSR chain is introducing a national delivery offering that includes the third-party DoorDash, Grubhub and Uber Eats platforms, as well as its own app and website. Whether customers order via Panera’s apps or through one of its partners, their orders will be delivered by Panera’s own delivery drivers in most markets. Panera is now working to connect its MyPanera loyalty program to delivery orders placed through delivery partner sites... Apparel retailer Forever 21 is considering filing for bankruptcy as efforts to restructure its debt run dry, a source tells CNBC. The retailer has been exploring restructuring options to shore up its liquidity as it struggles with its business. Those efforts, though, have stalled, making a bankruptcy more likely. Many of the most troubled retailers, like Forever 21, are located in malls, where fewer shoppers are spending their money. As sales decline, the companies are still weighed down by large, expensive store bases.

PAGE 2 The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com

AVAILS WBRC (Gray TV, Fox affiliate) in Birmingham, Ala., is searching for a Digital Sales Manager to lead the station’s efforts in the development of new and incremental digital business; reduce digital churn; oversee the station’s (2) digital sales specialists while coaching, training, mentoring and leading a top-notch group of local AEs. This is not a desk job! Our next DSM will hit the streets daily alongside our AEs to develop deep and mutually beneficial relationships with current and future

clients. To apply, please visit www.gray.tv/careers. EOE. Hearst Television stations KETV (Omaha, Neb.) and KCCI (Des Moines, Iowa) have an opening for an experienced Regional Research Director who will analyze all ratings and research information to design compelling stories for our sellers and outside promotion. The ideal candidate will be analytical, creative and proactive. This position will be in Omaha but will require some travel

to KCCI in Des Moines, Iowa as well. Please click HERE to apply. EOE M/F/D/V. WISH-TV/WNDY-TV/wishtv.com, Indianapolis, seeks an outgoing Account Executive with a self-starter mentality and a history of provided exceptional customer service. This individual must be able to develop and coach custom solutions for clients across television and digital platforms. Emphasis on new business development will be key for this individual where high earning potential and flexible work life balance can be met. Must embrace technology and exude a positive attitude at all times. Applicants should CLICK HERE to apply. EOE. WMC-TV in Memphis, Tenn., seeks a Director of Sales to lead all aspects of its cross-platform sales efforts. The qualified candidate will have a strategic vision for the WMC sales department, marked by specific, measurable goals. Minimum 5 years’ experience in a broadcast, digital sales or marketing role. Must love sales, developing and empowering teams, and collaborating with peers to deliver above and beyond expectations. CLICK HERE for more info or to apply. EOE/M/F/D/V.

See your ad here tomorrow! CLICK HERE for details.

HUDSON MX, COMSCORE TEAM UP ON AUTO DATA Looking to boost key automotive ad revenue at local TV stations through audience targeting, local media programmatic ad platform Hudson MX has made a deal with Comscore’s IHS Markit unit. MediaPost says the deal will enable local ad buyers to buy inventory against auto audiences. The data includes behavioral information of a TV program’s audience, including ownership, as well as a home’s viewing against the car purchase history and the intent for future auto purchases. So far this year, Hudson MX’s platform has been used to make $2 billion in local media buys with 30 media agencies in 210 markets and 294 national advertisers. Automotive remains one of the biggest ad categories for local TV, but it’s facing increasing competition from digital.

NIELSEN: 120.6M U.S. TV HOMES FOR 2019-2020 The latest National Television Household Universe Estimates from Nielsen finds a small increase in the number of people receiving traditional TV signals for the coming TV season, Rapid TV News reports. In its calculations, Nielsen uses U.S. Census Bureau data, combined with information from its national TV panel, to arrive at Advance TV Universe Estimates in early May. In all, the analysis found that there were 120.6 million TV homes in the U.S. for the 2019-20 TV season, with the number of persons age 2 and older in U.S. TV households estimated to be 307.3 million, a 0.6 percent increase from 2019. The research also identified increases in U.S. Hispanic, Black and Asian TV households. Additionally, the percentage of total U.S. homes with televisions receiving traditional TV signals via over-the-air, cable, DBS or telco, or via a broadband Internet connection connected to a TV set is currently at 96.1 percent. That shows an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the 95.9 percent estimated for 2019.

NETWORK NEWS Modern Family star Sarah Hyland has already lined up a new gig: ABC has given her a put pilot commitment on a semi-autobiographical sitcom. Details are few, but Hyland will segue to the new project, if it goes to pilot, when production on the 11th and final season of Modern Family concludes next spring... Major League Soccer’s annual championship game, the MLS Cup, will air this year on ABC, marking the first time the American pro league’s title match will appear on a broadcast network since ABC aired it in 2008. The game is set for Sunday, Nov. 10 at 3 PM (ET) and will also be available to stream live on the ESPN and ABC apps. Last year’s MLS Cup on Fox drew 1.56 million total viewers in primetime (on a Saturday), the most-watched MLS championship game since 1997. That was also up than 90 percent from the 2017 final... Andrene Ward-Hammond (Claws) and Ellen Tamaki (Charmed) are set for recurring roles opposite Melissa Roxburgh on the upcoming second season of NBC’s hit missing plane drama series Manifest.

HOME-PRICE GROWTH KEPT SLOWING IN JUNE Home-price growth continued to decelerate in June, the latest sign that lower mortgage rates are providing little boost to a housing market that’s been slowing for the past year, The Wall Street Journal reports. Average national home prices grew 3.1 percent in the year ending in June, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, down from a 3.3 percent annual pace the prior month. Price growth has been slowing for the longest period since the 2008 housing crash, a sign that the latest housing boom is coming to an end. Mortgage rates have fallen roughly a percentage point since November but thus far that has done little to reverse the slowdown in both prices and sales. The Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index, released earlier this week, similarly showed that home-price growth has decelerated for the last 15 months.

8/29/2019

Jay Leno

I was in the ROTC. Of course, ROTC stood for ‘Running off to Canada.’

The Daily News of TV Sales @ www.spotsndots.com PAGE 3

AMAZON STILL ATOP SMART SPEAKER MARKET The global smart speaker market grew 55.4 percent in Q2 to reach 26.1 million shipments, according to a new report from Canalys. Amazon still leads the race, accounting for 6.6 million units shipped in the quarter. Google, however, fell to third as China’s Baidu surged ahead. Baidu in Q2 grew a sizable 3,700 percent to reach 4.5 million units, overtaking Google’s 4.3 million units shipped. China’s market overall doubled its quarterly shipments to 12.6 million units, or more than twice the U.S.’s 6.1 million total. The latter represents a slight (2.4%) decline since the

prior quarter, TechCrunch reports. The report suggested that Google should introduce a revamped smart speaker portfolio to rekindle consumer interest. The Google Home device hasn’t been updated since launch — still sporting the same look it had back in 2016. And the Google Home mini hasn’t received much more than a color change. Amazon has updated its Echo line of speakers several times while expanding Alexa to multiple devices.

CORE TV BUSINESS, NATIONAL SOFT THIS YEAR (Continued from Page 1)conversion to the ATSC 3.0 standard may help, but even the biggest advocates for the industry don’t expect that will have much of an impact until three to five years from now. The surge of retrans revenue is how many TV groups have enticed banks to lend money for growth and consolidation. But as that growth slows and cord-cutting accelerates, Nielson doesn’t expect other private equity groups to follow Apollo Global Management’s lead into the TV business. “Apollo is making a concerted effort to get into the space because they see upside in ATSC 3.0 and retrans synergies across groups,” said Nielson, who expects Tegna to remain in Apollo’s sights — a possible addition to its majority stake in Cox Media Group. “Tegna is the target for them right now. It really works well with Cox because they have the larger markets and they have a lot of big four affiliate stations,” Nielson said. “But outside of Apollo I’m not seeing a lot of other private equity groups getting into broadcast on the TV side — especially since we’re unsure what the ownership cap will be in the future.”

8/29/2019

Stephen King

I guess when you turn off the main road, you have to be prepared to

see some funny houses.

TUESDAY NIELSEN RATINGS - LIVE + SAME DAY

REPORT: DISNEY+ INTEREST RUNNING HIGH The number of American customers intending to subscribe to Disney+, the streaming service launching Nov. 12, means its rollout will exceed company projections, a new study by UBS has found. Once they subscribe, 57 percent of new customers say they’ll cancel at least one other subscription service, with pay-TV bundles the most likely. The UBS Evidence Lab, which publishes regular research on consumer habits across industry section, found that 43 percent of the 1,000 U.S. consumers surveyed in mid-August said they plan to subscribe. Deadline says that puts it ahead of Disney’s internal forecasts, offered last April, of 20-30 million U.S. subscribers by 2024, or 20-30 percent of U.S. broadband households. Importantly, UBS noted, the survey was taken before the recent D23 Expo in Anaheim, Calif., where the company kicked off a months-long marketing blitz. About 79 percent of all survey respondents said they had heard of Disney+. And 67 percent said they’d likely add Disney+ without eliminating any current video service. Of the 43 percent indicating intent to subscribe, 57 percent said they’d cancel at least one other service. Pay-TV (37%) was cited as the most likely, with 33 percent indicating other video services and 19 percent flagging premium linear networks like HBO or Showtime.

FOR U.S. CONSUMERS, EVERYTHING HAS A PRICE Privacy concerns are on the rise, but that doesn’t mean consumers are dubious about sharing their data. More than half of U.S. consumers surveyed in June 2019 by RIS News said they’d let a retailer digitally identify them in-store — through location-based technology — in exchange for special promotions and offers. In a 2018 poll of U.S. internet users by Ipsos and World Economic Forum, the largest share of respondents said they’d be comfortable sharing personal data if brands were clear about what they planned to do with it. But nearly as many said they’d be happy to trade that information for compensation, such as a discount or reward. For many, a discount of just 10 percent makes for a worthwhile incentive. Nearly 60 percent said that a 10-30 percent discount would sway them, while another 41 percent would be influenced only by discounts of 40 percent or more.

CONSUMERS STILL UPBEAT ABOUT U.S. ECONOMY CNN Business says that although economists expected consumer confidence would take a hit in August after a strong July, Americans remain far more confident in the U.S. economy than many predicted. In August, the Conference Board consumer confidence index stood at 135.1, slightly down from 135.8 in July, but far above the Refinitiv consensus forecast of 129.5. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved further, and the present situation index is now at the highest level in nearly 19 years,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. The strong labor market is helping consumers set aside worries about the trade war between the U.S. and China.