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Safety / Performance CriteriaSafety / Performance CriteriaAgreeing on AssumptionsAgreeing on Assumptions
Safety / Performance CriteriaSafety / Performance CriteriaAgreeing on AssumptionsAgreeing on Assumptions
11BEIJING, CHINA; 30 JUN-11 JUL 2014
ObjectiveObjectiveObjectiveObjective
22
This module provides an overview of This module provides an overview of Performance and Safety Criteria as well as Performance and Safety Criteria as well as
Project AssumptionsProject Assumptions
Why?Why?Why?Why?
Why set performance criteriaWhy set performance criteria
✈ MeasurementMeasurement
✈ Determine successDetermine success
✈ Evaluate safetyEvaluate safety
Why set performance criteriaWhy set performance criteria
✈ MeasurementMeasurement
✈ Determine successDetermine success
✈ Evaluate safetyEvaluate safety
33
AssessmentAssessmentAssessmentAssessment
44
Qualitative AssessmentQualitative Assessment
Expert judgement used to assess the design based on Expert judgement used to assess the design based on ICAO SARPs (ICAO SARPs (Standards and Recommended PracticesStandards and Recommended Practices) and Procedures) and Procedures
Quantitative AssessmentQuantitative Assessment
Quantified results produced in the form of numerical data Quantified results produced in the form of numerical data e.g. capacity increased by 20%e.g. capacity increased by 20%
Qualitative AssessmentQualitative Assessment
Expert judgement used to assess the design based on Expert judgement used to assess the design based on ICAO SARPs (ICAO SARPs (Standards and Recommended PracticesStandards and Recommended Practices) and Procedures) and Procedures
Quantitative AssessmentQuantitative Assessment
Quantified results produced in the form of numerical data Quantified results produced in the form of numerical data e.g. capacity increased by 20%e.g. capacity increased by 20%
Both Qualitative and Quantitative assessment Both Qualitative and Quantitative assessment
are are crucialcrucial to safety and performance assessment to safety and performance assessment
References: References:
✈ICAO Doc 9859, AN/474, ICAO Doc 9859, AN/474, Safety Management Manual (SMM)Safety Management Manual (SMM)
✈ICAO Doc 9689, ICAO Doc 9689, Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation MinimaSeparation Minima
✈ICAO Circular 319-AN/181ICAO Circular 319-AN/181, A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in , A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation Minima (Doc 9689)Separation Minima (Doc 9689)
✈ICAO Doc 9613, ICAO Doc 9613, Performance-Based Navigation ManualPerformance-Based Navigation Manual
✈ICAO Doc 8168, ICAO Doc 8168, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Volume I, Flight ProceduresProcedures for Air Navigation Services, Volume I, Flight Procedures
✈ICAO Doc 9905, ICAO Doc 9905, RNP AR Procedure Design ManualRNP AR Procedure Design Manual
✈ICAO Doc 4444, ICAO Doc 4444, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Air Traffic Management.Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Air Traffic Management.
References: References:
✈ICAO Doc 9859, AN/474, ICAO Doc 9859, AN/474, Safety Management Manual (SMM)Safety Management Manual (SMM)
✈ICAO Doc 9689, ICAO Doc 9689, Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation MinimaSeparation Minima
✈ICAO Circular 319-AN/181ICAO Circular 319-AN/181, A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in , A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation Minima (Doc 9689)Separation Minima (Doc 9689)
✈ICAO Doc 9613, ICAO Doc 9613, Performance-Based Navigation ManualPerformance-Based Navigation Manual
✈ICAO Doc 8168, ICAO Doc 8168, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Volume I, Flight ProceduresProcedures for Air Navigation Services, Volume I, Flight Procedures
✈ICAO Doc 9905, ICAO Doc 9905, RNP AR Procedure Design ManualRNP AR Procedure Design Manual
✈ICAO Doc 4444, ICAO Doc 4444, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Air Traffic Management.Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Air Traffic Management.
Evaluating SafetyEvaluating SafetyEvaluating SafetyEvaluating Safety
55
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
66Ref: ICAO 9859, 2.2
SAFETY THEORYSAFETY THEORY
77
Organizational& Structural
Pressure
Various defences are built into the aviation system to protect againstfluctuations in human performance or decisions at all levels of the system.
defensive layers
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
88
Traditional Approach: • Data collection and analysis efforts are limited to
data collected through investigation of accidents and serious incidents.
New Approach: • Adds routine collection and analysis of data using
proactive as well as reactive methodologies to monitor known safety risks and detect emerging safety issues. These enhancements formulated the rationale for moving towards a safety management approach.
Ref: ICAO 9859, 5.1
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
99
• A SMS is a system to assure the safe operation of aircraft through effective management of safety risk.
• This system is designed to continuously improve safety by identifying hazards, collecting and analysing data and continuously assessing safety risks.
• The SMS seeks to proactively contain or mitigate risks before they result in aviation accidents and incidents.
Ref: ICAO 9859, 5.1
1010
A SMS is not static but is designed for continuous improvement.
a) Develop forms for internal evaluations.b) Define an internal audit process.c) Define an external audit process.d) Define a schedule for evaluation of facilities, equipment, documentation and procedures to be completed through audits and surveys.e) Develop documentation relevant to operational safety assurance.
Ref: ICAO 9859
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)
1111
The four components of a SMS are:
• a) safety policy and objectives;
• b) safety risk management;
• c) safety assurance; and
• d) safety promotion
Ref: ICAO 9859, 5.3
1212
Safety Risk ManagementSafety Risk Management
Ref: ICAO 9859
Safety ManagementSafety ManagementSafety ManagementSafety Management
1313
Identify Hazards
Evaluate Hazards
Safety ManagementSafety ManagementSafety ManagementSafety Management
1414
Mitigate vs Eliminate Hazards
Ref: ICAO 9859
Evaluating SafetyEvaluating SafetyEvaluating SafetyEvaluating Safety
1515
Risk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk AssessmentRisk Assessment
1616Ref: ICAO 9859
Risk ManagementRisk ManagementRisk ManagementRisk Management
1717Ref: ICAO 9859
ASSUMPTIONSASSUMPTIONSASSUMPTIONSASSUMPTIONS
18
AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions
1919
Columbus challenged the Spanish courtiers to stand an egg on its end. They tried but failed. He then hard-boiled one and squashed it down.
“That’s not fair,” they protested, “you broke the rules.” “Don’t be silly,” he replied, “you just assumed more than you needed to.”
What unnecessary assumptions can you eliminate?
Columbus challenged the Spanish courtiers to stand an egg on its end. They tried but failed. He then hard-boiled one and squashed it down.
“That’s not fair,” they protested, “you broke the rules.” “Don’t be silly,” he replied, “you just assumed more than you needed to.”
What unnecessary assumptions can you eliminate?
AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions
"B" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTH
FL
IGH
TS
PE
R D
AY
Y2002
Y2001
"A" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS
0
200
400
600
800
1000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTH
FL
IGH
TS
PE
R D
AY
Y2002
Y2001
"C" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTH
FL
IGH
TS
PE
R D
AY
Y2002
Y2001
"B" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTH
FL
IGH
TS
PE
R D
AY
Y2002
Y2001
"A" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS
0
200
400
600
800
1000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTH
FL
IGH
TS
PE
R D
AY
Y2002
Y2001
"C" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTH
FL
IGH
TS
PE
R D
AY
Y2002
Y2001
2020
AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions
H
67%15%
15% 3%A
A
A
D
D
D
D
G
35% 35%
30% 25%
25%
25%25% H
67%15%
15% 3%A
A
A
D
D
D
D
G
35% 35%
30% 25%
25%
25%25%
2121
AssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptionsAssumptions*Traffic Distribution (Time/Geography)* EUR ARN & Adjacent TMA traffic* IFR/VFR/Military Mix* Aircraft Performance Mix* Helicopters/STOL
* % Use of each RWY* Landings Aids & Use* RWY orientation choice?
* LVP days per year (Greenfield sites)
* Thunderstorm activity* Snow days per year
* Data* Voice
* Radar type* Maintenance down times* Backup
* Conventional Nav* P-RNAV* Other
* Sector definition* Filters* Colour codes
TRAFFIC ASSUMPTIONS
RUNWAY IN USEPrimary/Secondary
ATM/CNSASSUMPTIONS( )Current/Future
COMMUNICATIONSASSUMPTIONS
MET.ASSUMPTIONS
ATC SYSTEMASSUMPTIONS
NAVIGATIONASSUMPTIONS
SURVEILLANCEASSUMPTIONS
*Traffic Distribution (Time/Geography)* EUR ARN & Adjacent TMA traffic* IFR/VFR/Military Mix* Aircraft Performance Mix* Helicopters/STOL
* % Use of each RWY* Landings Aids & Use* RWY orientation choice?
* LVP days per year (Greenfield sites)
* Thunderstorm activity* Snow days per year
* Data* Voice
* Radar type* Maintenance down times* Backup
* Conventional Nav* P-RNAV* Other
* Sector definition* Filters* Colour codes
TRAFFIC ASSUMPTIONS
RUNWAY IN USEPrimary/Secondary
ATM/CNSASSUMPTIONS( )Current/Future
COMMUNICATIONSASSUMPTIONS
MET.ASSUMPTIONS
ATC SYSTEMASSUMPTIONS
NAVIGATIONASSUMPTIONS
SURVEILLANCEASSUMPTIONS
2222
PBNPBN
A few examples ….A few examples ….A few examples ….A few examples ….
✈ Changing a radar Changing a radar
✈Blocked military airspace – that wasnBlocked military airspace – that wasn’’tt
✈ Changing planned runway orientationChanging planned runway orientation
✈ Change to the number of runways availableChange to the number of runways available
✈ Changing a radar Changing a radar
✈Blocked military airspace – that wasnBlocked military airspace – that wasn’’tt
✈ Changing planned runway orientationChanging planned runway orientation
✈ Change to the number of runways availableChange to the number of runways available
2323
Questions???Questions???Questions???Questions???
24