S2 May 2012 Part1

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    1. A m anu facturer produces sweets of lengthL mm where L has a continuous uniformdistributionwith range [15, 30].

    (a) Find th e probability thata randomly selected sweethas a length greater than24 mm .(2 )

    These sw eets are random ly packed in bags of 20 sweets.

    (b) Find the probability that a randomly selected bag will contain at least 8 sweetslength greater than24 mm.

    (3)

    (c) Find the probability tha t 2 rando m ly selected bags will both contain at least 8 swith length greater than 24 mm.

    (2)

    .

    5

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    2. A test statistichas a distributionB(25, p).

    Given that

    H,:

    (a ) find th e critical region for the test statistic such thatth e probability in each tail is asclose as possible to 2.5%.

    (3)

    (b ) State th e probability of incorrectly rejectingH using this critical region.(2)

    it" X-

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    3. (a) Write downtw o conditions neededto approximateth e binomial distributionby thePoisson distribution.

    (2 )

    A machine which manufactures boltsis known to produce 3% defective bolts.Them achine breaks d ow n and a new m ach ine is installed. A random sample of 200 btaken fromthose produced by the newmachineand 12bolts were defective.

    (b ) Using a suitable approximation,test at the 5% level of significance whetheror notthe proportion of defective bolts is higher with the new machine than with thmachine. State your hypotheses clearly.

    (7)

    b).

    - 0.020T

    SLJE

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    4. The numberof houses soldby an estate agentfollows a Poisson distribution, w itha meanof 2 per week.

    (a) Find the probability that in the next 4 weeks the estate agen t sells,

    (i) exactly 3 houses,

    (ii) m ore than5 houses.

    The estate agent monitors sales in periods of 4 weeks.

    (5)

    (b) Find the probability that in the next twelve of these 4 week periods there are exactlynine periods in which more than 5 houses are sold.

    (3)

    The estate agent will receivea bonus if he sells more than25 housesin the next 10 weeks.

    (c) Use a suitable approximation to estimate the probability that the estate agent receivesa bonus.

    (6)

    * n o . o f period5 u/We

    = o .

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    Question 4 continued

    c)

    P(X?2S) - -

    Jb

    r R

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    5. The queueing time, X minutes, of a customer at a till of a supermarket has probabilitydensity function

    0 otherwise

    (a) Show that the value of & is 4

    (b) Write down the value of E(X).

    (c) Calculate Var(A).

    (4)

    (1)

    (4)

    (d) Find the probability that a randomly chosen customer's queueing time will differ fromthe mean by at least half a minute.

    V 3 -2

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    Question 5 continued

    r O.S