S12j prague on civil society innovation

Keynote presentation to conference onScience and the Public in Decision-Making Processes,

Prague, 25th October 2012

Andy StirlingSPRU & STEPS Centre

PLURALISING PROGRESS?

Civil Society and the Direction of Innovation

- The Economist

`

“we'll restore science to its rightful place”… - President Obama

“Our hope … relies on scientific and technological progress” - Premier Wen Jiabao

PROGRESS

“you can’t stop progress” …

“One can not impede scientific progress.” - President Ahmadinejad

Mainstream Innovation Policy

all innovation is progress…

Lisbon Strategy for: “pro-innovation action”

- EU Council of Ministers

“we need more pro-innovation policies” - PM Gordon

Brown

“… the Government’s strategy is … pro-innovation” - PM David Cameron

TECHNOLOGY

SCIENCE

PROGRESS

TECHNOLOGY

Lord Alec Broers, President, RAEng

…“history is a race to advance technology”

Technology:

“will determine the future of the human race’”

The challenge of government:

“to strive to stay in the race”…

The role of the public:

“to give technology the status it deserves”…

The One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation Race

Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives… no politics … no choice !

PROGRESS

TECHNOLOGY

Conventional Innovation Policy

Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice !

Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast? … who leads?

PROGRESS

TECHNOLOGY


TECHNOLOGY


Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast?’ … who leads?

Seriously neglects questions over: which way? …what alternatives? says who? …why?

PROGRESS


Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? … how much? how fast?’ … who leads?

Seriously neglects questions over: which way? …what alternatives? says who? …why?


SUSTAINABILITYSCIENCE

PRESUMED SINGULAR

TRANSITION

The Sustainability Transition?

Constituted by institutions, practices, discourses, imaginations… knowledges of many kinds … as well as science and technology

BUT: not all that is conceivable, feasible, viable – will be fully realisable

For instance... “sustainable energy”

Innovation as Branching Social Pathways

Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways

social shaping (Bijker, 85) co-construction (Misa, 03) studies: expectations (Brown, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05)



history: contingency (Mokyr, 92) momentum (Hughes 83)path-dependence (David, 85) path creation

(Karnoe, 01)



philosophy: autonomy (Winner, 77) closure (Feenberg, 91)/politics entrapment (Walker, 01) alignment (Geels, 02)



economics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) lock-in (Arthur, 89) regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) trajectories (Dosi,

82)


Civil Society Sustains Excluded Pathways

values, visions, knowledges, interests, practices, lifestyles, behaviours…

Relative freedom from market and state structures retains diversity

Policy Knowledge as ‘Sound Science’

on chemicals:“ …sound science will be the basis of the Commission's legislative proposal…” - EC RTD Commissioner, Philippe Busquin

on genetic modification:

“… this government's approach is to make decisions … on the basis of sound science”

- former UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair

on energy:

“[n]ow is the right time for a cool-headed, evidence based assessment … I want to sweep away historic prejudice and put in its place evidence and science”

former UK Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks

Justification: from political ‘problems’ to technical ‘puzzles’

on public health:

“… sound science…science-based decisions” - UN WHO DG Margaret Chan

Hidden Ambiguities in ‘Sound Science’

Energy technologies: mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…

0.001 0.1 10 1000externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high

coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

wind

solar

biomass



0.001 0.1 10 1000

coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

21

wind

solar

biomass

n =

‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)

minimum maximum25% 75%

low RISK high



coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

36

20

wind 18

solar 11

biomass 22

31

21

16

n =



unproblematic

problematic

knowledge about likelihoods

- Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Smithson, Ravetz, Wynne ...

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

engineered components closed deterministic systems high frequency incidents familiar contexts

open dynamic systems low frequency events human factors changing contexts

INCERTITUDE

Closing Down Policy Knowledge contrasting aspects of ‘incertitude’

unproblematic

problematic

unproblematic problematic


knowledge about possibilities

- Socrates, Lao Tzu, Knight, Keynes, Shackle, Collingridge, Smithson, Ravetz, Wynne ...

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

engineered components closed deterministic systems high frequency incidents familiar contexts

open dynamic systems low frequency events human factors changing contexts

defining pros & cons contrasting impacts

diverse perspectives alternative options

novel agents or vectors surprising conditions new alternatives

wilful blinkers

INCERTITUDE

contrasting aspects of ‘incertitude’

Civil Society Opens Up Policy Knowledge

unproblematic

problematic




RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY aggregative analysis patronage, pressure political closure

insurance limitsreductive modelsstochastic reasoning

` evidence-based policy

institutional remits

political cultureliability protection

harm definitions indicators / metrics IGNORANCE

risk focus is shaped by power – Beck’s “organised irresponsibility”

Pressures for Closure institutional pressures ‘close down’ around risk assessment

unproblematic

problematic




RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

aggregated probabilities optimisation algorithms synthetic decision trees Delphi / Foresight predictive modelling

civil society ‘sub-politics’ helps counter institutional closure


unproblematic

problematic



AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

RISK

UNCERTAINTY


burden of evidence onus of persuasion uncertainty factors decision heuristics interval analysis sensitivity testing


challenges to expert quantitative assessment



scenarios / backcasting interactive modelling

mapping / Q-methods participatory deliberation

democratic procedures

unproblematic

problematic



AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

RISK

UNCERTAINTY




challenges to incumbent mainstream framings



unproblematic



AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

RISK


responsive civic research curiosity monitoring,

evidentiary presumptions flexibility, reversibility

diversity, resilience, agility, adaptability

scenarios / backcasting interactive modelling

mapping / Q-methods participatory deliberation

democratic procedures

problematic UNCERTAINTY




challenges to wilful and instrumental blinkers


unproblematic

problematic



precautionary appraisal

participatory deliberation

definitive prescription

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE


Op

tion

s

Op

tion

s

adaptive learning

sustainability

safety

‘opening up’: options, issues, approaches, possibilities, perspectives



unproblematic

problematic



precautionary appraisal

participatory deliberation

definitive prescription

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE


active civil society helps force humility and reflexivity

adaptive learning

‘opening up’: options, issues, approaches, possibilities, perspectives



Blind spot in social and political science of innovation (Smith, 05)

- political science: ‘systems of production’, but not innovation (Hollingsworth 97)

- social movements research: ideas, institutions, interests – not technology (Smith, 05)

- social studies of technology: only general ‘pressure’ (Poel, 00; Jamison, 99)

- multi-level model acknowledges role … (Schot, 03; Geels, 08)

…but pays insufficient attention to role of politics and power (Smith et al, 05)

Innovation studies neglects civil society…

Restricted focus in innovation systems research

- explicitly excluded in ‘triple helix’ (government, industry, academia) (Etzkowitz 05)

- sidelined as general factor in healthy economy (Fukuyama 00)

- relevant only at lower levels of regional systems of innovation (Cook 98)

- implicated indirectly thro’ small business ‘partnerships’ in development (Hall 01)

- on ‘democracy’: focus is on education system, not civil society (Lundvall 09)

T im eT im e

L a n d sc a p e d e v e lo p m e n ts p u t p re s su re o n e x is tin g re g im e , w h ic h o p e n s u p , c re a tin g w in d o w s o f o p p o rtu n ity fo r n o v e lt ie s

S o c io - te c h n ic a l re g im e is ‘d y n a m ic a lly s ta b le ’.O n d iffe re n t d im e n s io n s th e re a re o n g o in g p ro c e ss e s

N e w c o n f ig u ra tio n b re a k s th ro u g h , ta k in ga d v a n ta g e o f ‘w in d o w s o f o p p o rtu n ity ’ . A d ju s tm e n ts o c c u r in s o c io - te c h n ic a l re g im e .

E le m e n ts a re g ra d u a lly l in k e d to g e th e r,a n d s ta b ilis e in a d o m in a n t d e s ig n .In te rn a l m o m e n tu m in c re a se s .

L e a rn in g p ro c e s se s ta k e p la c e o n m u ltip le d im e n s io n s .D iffe re n t e le m e n ts a re g ra d u a lly l in k e d to g e th e r in a se a m le s s w e b .

N e w s o c io - te c h n ic a lre g im e in f lu e n c e s la n d s c a p e

Techno log ica ln ich es

Soc io -techn ica l’land scape

Soc io -tech n ica lreg im e

Te c h n o lo g y

M a rk e ts , u se r p re fe re n c e s

C u ltu reP o lic y

S c ie n c eIn d u s try

experimentation / learning

alignment / stabilisation / momentum

saturation / incumbent inertia windows of opportunity / breakthrough / reconfiguration

environmental drivers / political pressures


TECHNOLOGICAL NICHESTECHNOLOGICAL

NICHES

SOCIO-TECHNICAL

REGIME

SOCIO-TECHNICAL LANDSCAPE

…but civil society doesn’t neglect innovation!

after Geels, 2002

For instance, as seen under the ‘Multi-level Perspective’:

T im eT im e










Te c h n o lo g y


C u ltu reP o lic y








NICHES

SOCIO-TECHNICAL

REGIME


after Geels, 2002


T im eT im e










Te c h n o lo g y


C u ltu reP o lic y








NICHES

SOCIO-TECHNICAL

REGIME


after Geels, 2002


T im eT im e










Te c h n o lo g y


C u ltu reP o lic y








NICHES

SOCIO-TECHNICAL

REGIME


after Geels, 2002

reconfigured socio-technical regime


T im eT im e










Te c h n o lo g y


C u ltu reP o lic y


- consumer boycotts - protest and lobbying- counter-expertise

SOCIO-TECHNICAL

REGIME

eg: nuclear power

chlorine chemicals

deepsea oil


T im eT im e










Te c h n o lo g y


C u ltu reP o lic y


- activist visions - DIY inventors- grassroots innovation - early adopters



NICHES

SOCIO-TECHNICAL

REGIME


eg: organic food

renewable energy

low energy housing


T im eT im e










Te c h n o lo g y


C u ltu reP o lic y





NICHES

SOCIO-TECHNICAL

REGIME




- movement building - political climate- awareness raising - culture change

- institutional structure- trade patterns

eg: genetic modification

air pollution

nuclear weapons


T im eT im e










Te c h n o lo g y


C u ltu reP o lic y




NICHES

SOCIO-TECHNICAL

REGIME






- community mobilisation- green consumption

- community mobilisation- green consumptioneg: open source software

waste recycling

community growing


T im eT im e










Te c h n o lo g y


C u ltu reP o lic y




NICHES

SOCIO-TECHNICAL

REGIME






- community mobilisation- green consumption

- policy shift - mass markets- behaviour change - training demand

eg: low energy lifestyles

IP-free distribution

green careers


civil society is the main driver of radical transformation

technological ‘lock-in’

institutionalised technical risk assessment

multiple feasible

Innovation trajectories

restricted appreciation

innovation union knowledge economy

‘closed down’ outputs

POSSIBLE PATHWAYS

presumed benefits case-by-case focus narrow remits aggregated attention regulatory capture technocratic procedures

risk

narrow inputs

Op

tion

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privileged visions

‘Opening Up’ Innovation Governance

single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ / most ‘legitimate’

decisions

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POSSIBLE PATHWAYS

diverse pathways

knowledge democracy

broad-based inputs

‘opening up’ outputs

acknowledge plurality and

conditionality

Sustainability

O

ptio

ns

choice discourse

more options, issues, uncertainties, perspectives

diversity in technology portfolios


CIVIL SOCIETY

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POSSIBLE PATHWAYS

diverse pathways

knowledge democracy

Sustainability

O

ptio

ns

choice discourse

diversity in technology portfolios


help catalyse: democratic accountability context sensitivity

social robustness

broad-based inputs

‘opening up’ outputs

acknowledge plurality and

conditionality

more options, issues, uncertainties, perspectives

A ‘3D’ AGENDA

Direction open up politics of knowledge & innovation

Distribution empower marginal and vulnerable people

Diversity enable pluralities of innovation pathways

www.anewmanifesto.org

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S12j prague on civil society innovation